Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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ACUS03 KWNS 110747
SWODY3
SPC AC 110745

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0145 AM CST WED DEC 11 2013

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY...

SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF NRN BAJA PENINSULA WILL EJECT
ENEWD ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS BY THE START
OF THE DAY3 PERIOD.  THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE SLIGHTLY
MORE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES OFF THE WRN GULF BASIN AND
MODIFIED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD BEGIN TO ADVANCE NWD INTO
THE COASTAL PLAINS OF TX AND SRN LA BY EARLY SATURDAY.  EVEN
SO...INSTABILITY WILL PROVE NEGLIGIBLE DUE TO POOR LAPSE RATES AND
COOL BUT WEAKENING SFC ANTICYCLONE.  NORTH OF A DEVELOPING WARM
FRONT...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATS WILL BE SOMEWHAT STEEPER ACROSS OK INTO
AR/SRN MO.  LATEST NAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY FOR
DEEP CONVECTION IF LIFTING PARCELS NEAR 700MB.  LATEST THINKING IS
WHILE ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE NOTED ACROSS THIS REGION
ANY LIGHTNING SHOULD PROVE QUITE ISOLATED IN NATURE.  FOR THIS
REASON WILL MAINTAIN LESS THAN 10 PERCENT THUNDER FOR DAY3.

..DARROW.. 12/11/2013
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