Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS03 KWNS 280730
SWODY3
SPC AC 280730

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF THE CNTRL
PLAINS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

...SYNOPSIS..
A MIDLEVEL ANTICYCLONE INITIALLY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WILL WEAKEN
AS A SEASONABLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE PAC NW
AND NRN ROCKIES. A BELT OF MODERATE BROADLY CYCLONIC WLY FLOW WILL
EXTEND DOWNSHEAR FROM THE GREAT PLAINS TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MAINTAIN A WEAK SFC FRONT
FROM NEAR THE OH VALLEY EWD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND. MOISTURE RETURN
WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO THE NRN PLAINS AMIDST A STRENGTHENING
NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET.

...PARTS OF THE CNTRL PLAINS...
PERSISTENT BELT OF MODERATE NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN POSITIONED
OVER THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS...WHILE SLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS STRENGTHEN
AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE NRN ROCKIES.
INSTABILITY WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED BY SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID
50S F...WHILE RICHER MOISTURE REMAINS POSITIONED S OF THE AREA
BEFORE ADVECTING NWD OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500
J/KG COMBINED WITH MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE
CONDITIONALLY SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW SUPERCELLS. TSTM COVERAGE SHOULD
REMAIN LIMITED OWING TO WEAK LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH
GRADUAL MIDLEVEL HEIGHT RISES EXPECTED TO OCCUR...WITH TSTM
INITIATION PRIMARILY FOCUSED ALONG A LEE SFC TROUGH AND WITHIN
UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE BLACK HILLS.

...MID-ATLANTIC REGION...
W-E ORIENTED FRONT SHOULD GRADUALLY RETREAT NWD ACROSS PA DURING THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH FEED OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE
RETURNING ACROSS VA. DESPITE POOR LAPSE RATES ALOFT...RICH
TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE SHOULD SUPPORT MARGINAL DIURNAL
DESTABILIZATION WHERE STRONGER SFC HEATING OCCURS...WITH TSTM
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE INVOF THE WARM FRONT SWD ALONG A LEE TROUGH
ACROSS CNTRL VA. 20-30 KT OF WLY MIDLEVEL FLOW ATOP WEAK SLY SFC
WINDS MAY SUPPORT A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG WIND GUSTS.

..ROGERS.. 07/28/2016

$$



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