Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS03 KWNS 100731
SWODY3
SPC AC 100730

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM A PORTION OF THE MID-UPPER
MS VALLEY INTO THE OH VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORM ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM PORTIONS
OF THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGIONS. OTHER STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER A PORTION OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

...SYNOPSIS...

UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN THE PROCESS OF AMPLIFICATION OVER THE NRN
PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY REGION. BY 12Z SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL
EXTEND FROM ONTARIO SWWD INTO SRN MN THEN WWD INTO SD. A
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY RESIDE FROM WRN KS NEWD INTO
SERN NEB. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD ADVANCE SEWD EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH
THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS NEB. A WARM FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM
IA SEWD THROUGH WRN IL AND FARTHER SE INTO WRN PORTION OF THE TN
VALLEY...AND THIS BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP EWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY
DURING THE PERIOD.

...UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION...

STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING EARLY SATURDAY WITHIN WARM ADVECTION
REGIME NORTH OF STALLED BOUNDARY FROM PORTIONS OF NEB EWD INTO IA
AND MN. SOUTH OF THIS ACTIVITY DIABATIC WARMING OF THE MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH
1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE. AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES...ADDITIONAL
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY ALONG PRE-EXISTING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONGOING STORMS. MEANWHILE
MID-UPPER WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN IN ASSOCIATION WITH AMPLIFYING
TROUGH WITH VERTICAL SHEAR BECOMING SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS.
ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EWD THROUGH A PORTION OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
THE OH VALLEY POSING A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL.

...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS AREA...

OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND SPREAD
EWD INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY FROM
NRN KS INTO NEB. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER IN THESE
AREAS...BUT STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT
A THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL THROUGH EARLY
EVENING.

..DIAL.. 07/10/2014
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