023
FXUS63 KEAX 090527
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1227 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to isolated severe storms possible across central
  Missouri this afternoon.

- Additional showers/non-severe thunderstorms are possible north
  of Interstate 70 tomorrow.

- A active weather pattern returns Sunday into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 241 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

This afternoon, a surface low is moving across west central
Missouri with a warm front extending east across the southern CWA
and a cold front extending southwest from the surface low.
Thunderstorms have developed out ahead of the cold front which will
brush the southern tier of counties in the forecast area where 2000-
2500J/Kg of MUCAPE and 50-60kt effective shear are analyzed. As such
storms with large hail and damaging winds are not out of the
question for the next few hours when the surface low pushes east of
the area. Conditions are expected to dry out for tonight as modest
cold air advects into the area dropping lows into the upper 40s to
lower 50s. Tomorrow a ENE-WSW oriented upper level trough will exist
from the northern Great Lakes into the Upper Midwest. A vort max
will round the base moving into the local area. This will be enough
to force scattered diurnal thunderstorms to develop mainly north of
I-70. With cold air advection continuing tomorrow, highs will hold
near normal in the mid 60s to the north to the lower 70s south.

Quiet weather is expected for Friday and Saturday. Friday the area
will be under northwest flow aloft as a surface ridge skirts the
western CWA. This will keep highs seasonable in the low to mid 70s.
Saturday, a surface ridge will remain in control over the area as
northwest flow aloft relaxes. Height rises will aid in highs rising
into the mid to upper 70s. Saturday night a upper level closed low
over the Four Corners Region will move into the western Plains
Sunday. Warm advection showers and thunderstorms are expected to
return as lead shortwave will eject out ahead of the main trough
into the local area. Sunday night through monday night the Upper
level trough will slowly move across the Plains and into the Ozarks.
This will continue shower and thunderstorm chances though the
period. The GFS is slightly more progressive than the EC in pushing
the upper level trough east of the Ozarks on Tuesday which would
provide for a dry day however, the slower EC would continue shower
chances on Tuesday. Highs Sunday through Tuesday will remain in the
mid to upper 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

VFR conditions are expected to largely prevail. Exception to
this will be across north central into northeast Missouri this
afternoon as MVFR ceilings and showers associated with upper
level low rotating into the region. Elsewhere, cumulus should
develop after 14Z around 2k feet and raise to near 4K throughout
the day today. Gusty northwest winds develop during the daylight
hours today.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...BT