Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 161934
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
234 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 203 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

THE INHERITED FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. LATE TONIGHT THE AREA SHOULD
SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A
LOW AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST COUPLED
WITH MODEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT / WARM AIR ADVECTION. INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR PROFILES ARE SUPPORT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SMALL HAIL WITH ANY
OF THE STRONGER STORMS...SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. THE BEST
CHANCES TO SEE PRECIP EXISTS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE MID-MORNING HOURS BEFORE ANOTHER
LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. ADDITIONALLY A WARM FRONT WILL
SLOWLY MIX INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST SERVING AS THE FOCUS FOR THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AND CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING. AS WITH TONIGHT`S ACTIVITY THE BEST CHANCES OF
SEEING ANY PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. ON SATURDAY A DEEP TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. AS IT DOES SOME OF THE
MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE SYSTEM.
FURTHERMORE, MOISTURE ADVECTION OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE
RATHER ROBUST THUS SETTING THE STAGE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY. DPROG/DT OF THE GFS AND EC
HAVE BACKED OFF ON QPF AMOUNTS WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIP REMAINING
WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA. AT THIS TIME I STAYED THE COURSE OF A WETTER
SOLUTION BUT OBVIOUSLY SOMETHING TO MONITOR SHOULD THE LATEST DRIER
TRENDS CONTINUE. ON SUNDAY THE AREA CLEARS OUT WITH DRIER WEATHER AND
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

VFR conditions through the afternoon ahead of a developing
frontal zone that will increase the cloud cover tonight. At this time
think the CIGS should remain VFR overnight but MVFR is not out of the
question. Near dawn isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms are
anticipated to develop along and north of the frontal zone with the
chance for the precip to last well through the day on Wednesday. At
this time what does develop should be hit-or-miss so hence the VCSH
for this fcst issuance. The surface winds should be fairly steady out
of the southeast and under 15 kts.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pietrycha
AVIATION...Pietrycha






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