Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 272334

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
534 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

Issued at 318 PM CST MON FEB 27 2017

This is one of the most complex forecasts I`ve issued with a wide
range of weather expected over the next 24 to 36 hours.

For tonight, showers and a few storms are developing in the
southerly warm/moist advection. This should all continue to lift
northeastward with time this evening and tonight. As more moisture
gets transported into the area, we should see cloud bases lower with
possible sprinkles or drizzle overnight and the possibility of minor
visibility reductions as a result.

For Tuesday, while it looks the entire forecast area will start the
day with dewpoints higher than our normal high temperatures,
forecast soundings depict very deep mixing to 6000 to 7000 ft. The
moisture itself looks relatively shallow and with mixing expected
into much drier air aloft, expect afternoon humidity values to drop
to at least the 30 to 35 percent range across parts of east central
KS and west central MO. Winds in the mixed layer are in the 40 to 50
kt range so think we should see wind gusts of 30 to 35 mph at the
surface. This combination, when winds get close to humidity values,
with still cured fuels, will lead to at least very high fire danger
across east central KS and west central MO, including the KC Metro.

Another concern for Tuesday is the potential for severe
thunderstorms. Through the afternoon hours, strongly veered winds
with minimal convergence along the front, despite growing
instability, should lead to convection holding off until later in
the evening. By the evening hours, better frontal convergence and
cooling temperatures aloft should aid in storm development, likely
along and southeast of line from Mound City, KS to Moberly, MO.
Forecast soundings show still ample instability, thanks to cooling
temperatures aloft and a well mixed boundary layer. Winds are
unidirectional with nearly a straight-line hodograph. This suggest
that strong winds and perhaps hail will be the biggest concern with
storms that develop in the forecast area.

Yet another concern with this system is the potential for snowfall
on the back side within the cold advection behind the front. Models
still vary on the placement of any band of precipitation as well as
the intensity of the forcing. But there should be strong forcing
associated with a narrow corridor of frontogenesis as the mid-
level shortwave trough approaches. Forecast soundings show good
potential for snow growth aloft with nearly coincident max forcing
in the snow growth zone. But the lower levels remain fairly warm
which will likely melt much of the snow. Thinking is, after
collaborating with neighboring offices, that the strong forcing
should dynamically cool the column, allowing for at least a
rain/snow mix at the surface. Have continued mention of this mix
in the forecast. Given the uncertainty in the location and
intensity of the forcing, it`s hard to provide much more detail
with a good level of confidence. But where this band ultimately
sets up, would not be surprised to see a minor accumulation of wet

The remainder of the forecast continues to look quiet. High pressure
is expected to settle over the area through the end of the work
week. For Saturday into Sunday, it looks like the upper ridge will
build back into the area. As a result, temperatures should climb
back to well above normal values with highs likely climbing into the
60s Saturday and the 70s on Sunday.


.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 533 PM CST MON FEB 27 2017

Diurnal cu will gradually dissipate over the next hour or so,
leaving skies mainly clear for a few hours until the next batch of
cloud cover works its way in from the southwest. Ceilings will
gradually lower by 06z, falling to at least MVFR if not IFR
shortly after midnight. Patchy fog is also possible around and
slightly after 06z, but should dissipate by 09z when winds begin
to increase out of the south and shallow boundary layer mixing
begins. A few light rain showers are possible between 06z and 12z,
but will be widely scattered in nature and may not impact
aviation. Winds will continue to increase after sunrise, veering
to the southwest and gusting to over 20 kts by mid-morning.
Stratus will also gradually scatter out during the morning,
bringing conditions back to VFR between 15z-18z.


.Fire Weather...
Issued at 318 PM CST MON FEB 27 2017

Very high fire danger is expected tomorrow afternoon across east
central KS and west central MO. While humidity will very high to
start the day, conditions should deteriorate rapidly moving into
the afternoon due to deep mixing into very dry air aloft. This
will allow afternoon humidity values to fall into at least the 30
to 35 percent range. Wind gusts of 30 to 35 mph look possible
coincident with the drop in humidity leading to the very high fire




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