Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 302154 CCA
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
332 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING IS CURRENTLY MOVING OVER CENTRAL MO THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRY MID LEVEL AIR AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS
WAVE HAS CONTRIBUTED TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA, AND
WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN WINDS ONCE THEY SHIFT TO THE NORTH. THESE
STRONG WINDS WILL FILTER IN COLDER TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN SW MO TO THE LOW 30S ALONG THE IA
STATE LINE. A COMBINATION OF THE WIND AND COLD AIR MEANS WIND CHILLS
DROP AS LOW AS 20 DEGREES FOR NORTHERN MO BY SUNRISE. THE GUSTY
WINDS ALSO KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER SOMEWHAT MIXED, AND THIS SHOULD
LIMIT THE FORMATION OF FROST. AN AREA OF STRATUS LOCATED OVER SD
WILL DROP SOUTHWARD AND PASS THROUGH BRIEFLY TONIGHT BEFORE DRY AIR
OVER TAKES THE REGION AND SCATTERS THE CLOUDS OUT BY TOMORROW
MORNING. TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID
40S, AND WIND CHILLS STAY IN THE 30S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN START
TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL CAUSE A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT, THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD
ACROSS EASTERN KS AND MO. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH A COLD
AND DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL ALLOW LOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 20S. EXPECT A WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA. THEREFORE, A FREEZE WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT TONIGHT
AND THROUGH 800 AM ON SATURDAY.

SATURDAY, WILL BE COOL WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
40S. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE DAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE
PUSHES EAST TOWARDS THE MS RIVER VALLEY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
WESTERN US WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. AN UPSTREAM
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND MS
RIVER VALLEY. A LEE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
CAUSING THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHERLY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM INTO THE MID 50S EAST TO TO NEAR 60 WEST.

SUNDAY NIGHT, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS
BY MONDAY MORNING. THE LLJ WILL BEGIN TO TRANSPORT DEEPER MOISTURE
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST. THE MOISTURE RETURN
SUNDAY NIGHT MAY INCREASE THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL COUNTIES OF THE CWA

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. THE H5
TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHEAR OUT AS THE NORTHERN STREAM H5 JET
INCREASES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THERE
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE SUFFICIENT ASCENT AND DEEPER MOISTURE
ADVECTION FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE
SHOWERS SHOULD END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY
EVENING AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CWA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL REACH THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY THE CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA AND HIGHS WILL
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT.


WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE H5
TROUGH WILL BECOME A CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS WESTERN TX. THE
STRONGER ASCENT AND MOISTURE RETURN WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
CWA. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN
THE UPPER 50S EAST TO LOWER TO MID 60S WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE FIRST HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD
AT ALL TERMINALS AND GENERALLY STRONGER WINDS. THE CHALLENGE IS MORE
TOWARD THE LATER HALF OF THE PERIOD WHEN MORNING STRATUS BECOMES A
FACTOR OVER THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON WHETHER THIS WILL BE
ENOUGH TO CAUSE BKN CIGS, SO LEFT THAT OUT FOR NOW. HOWEVER, AFTER
DAY BREAK, ANY CIGS THAT FORM SHOULD BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT BY LATE
MORNING.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM FRIDAY TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR KSZ025-
057-060-102>105.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HENNECKE
LONG TERM...GARGAN
AVIATION...DRAKE






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