Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 302023
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
323 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 323 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016

Short Term (Tonight through Monday night):

This afternoon the remnants of an MCS that developed last night over
Nebraska has continued to push southeast through this morning and
early afternoon and is moving into the CWA. This cluster of showers
with embedded thunderstorms is expected to diminish by late
afternoon. However, overnight a LLJ is expected to develop out
across Kansas and nose into south Nebraska overriding a warm front.
Another MCS is expected to develop and roll southeastward through
the overnight hours. Models still do not have a great handle on the
placement of the front and consequently where thunderstorms will
develop. The NAM is much further north into central Nebraska than
the GFS which develops storms over central Kansas. Both move
convection into the area during the morning hours tomorrow so have
likely POPs over the western CWA for tomorrow morning with
decreasing POPs as you progress eastward. Storms will continue
through the morning hours before diminishing tomorrow afternoon. A
warm front will be lifting through the CWA tomorrow however, cloud
cover should keep temperatures near normal with highs in the mid to
upper 80s. Tomorrow night, the LLJ gets ramped again and overrides
the warm front developing nocturnal convection once again. The NAM
develops convection across the northern CWA with the GFS developing
storms right across the CWA. Consequently have likely POPs across
the northeastern CWA with diminishing POPs from NE to SW. Storms will
diminish Monday morning as the LLJ weakens. The warm front will lift
north of the area during the day Monday capping us off. The
retreating warm front coupled with upper level ridging building into
the area on Monday will bring a return to hot conditions with highs
in the low to mid 90s with heat indices into the 100-105 range.
Conditions for Monday will have to be monitored for a possible heat
advisory with future updates.

Long Term (Tuesday - Friday):

The extended forecast will be generally hot and dry as the region
will be dominated by an upper level ridge of high pressure. Expect
highs in the low to mid 90s through at least Thursday. Thursday
night models are consistent in moving an upper level shortwave
across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest forcing a cold front
into the region. Models show some difference as to just how far
south the cold front can push into ridge however the potential is
there for storms Thursday night into Friday. This front/storms would
also allow for a bit of a respite from the heat with highs on Friday
topping out in the upper 80s and lower 90s.


&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016

VFR conds are expected to prevail thru the TAF pd however there will
be a couple windows for the potential of thunderstorms at the
terminals. The first revolves around the MCS movg into nern KS this
afternoon which seems to be finally giving up the game with cloud
tops warming...and lightning dropping off the past half hour or so.
This is supported by the hi-res short term models as well.
Consequently, have opted to keep things dry this afternoon. Another
MCS is expected to develop across central Nebraska tonignt as the LLJ
increases. Confidence on exact area of development and how the
complex will move is low at this time so have just maintained the
VCTS for tomorrow morning. Winds will generally be light thru
tonight before they pick up out of the SE between 5-10kts.


&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...73
Aviation...73


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