Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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975
FXUS63 KEAX 240437
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1137 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 307 PM CDT SAT SEP 23 2017

Unseasonably warm temperatures continuing across the region this
afternoon as a core of 925-hPa air of 2-3 standard deviations
above normal persists across the upper Miss and lwr Missouri Rvr
Vlys. For the most part, today`s environment should remain
unsupportive of developing convection as upper forcing for ascent
remains fairly weak thanks to a southwest extending midlevel ridge
axis. That said however, a stray storm or two may develop later
this afternoon/early evening east of Route 65, however overall
threat appears too marginal for mentionable pops at this time.
Otherwise, expect a dry overnight period with lows falling into
the upper 60s to lower 70s for most.

A fairly similar story anticipated for Sunday with more cloud
cover expected thanks to slow eastward progression of a cold front
off out our west. Convection along this feature during the
overnight may lead to greater amounts of cloud cover than seen
this afternoon, a slightly cooler high temps Sunday afternoon.
Despite this, southerly flow and combined with the brushing of a
weak shortwave Sunday afternoon may lead to a few stray non-severe
storms, however coverage will remain fairly isolated in nature.

Weather pattern will become more unsettled as we head into next
week as aforementioned cold front inches ever closer to our area.
This will occur as a western U.S. deep trough finally ejects east
from the Central Rockies through midweek, which will finally
allow the front to start sliding east through our area Tuesday
afternoon through early Wednesday. For now, Tuesday looks to be
the wettest of the periods with shwrs/storms likely for a good
portion of the day. Quick look at model projected PWAT plots shows
values increasing to 2-3 standard deviations above normal, which
combined with the slow frontal movement, may lead to localized
heavy rainfall across the area. That said however, pattern
doesn`t appear overall problematic as a southward extension of
our main frontal boundary looks to be locked in-place across
southern High Plains during the timeframe, likely serving as a
focus for extensive convection further south and thus hopefully
preventing excessive tropical moisture from lifting too far north.
That said however, trends will have to be monitored in coming
days to see if this pattern changes at all.

Rain chances to come to an end by Wednesday with much cooler
conditions expected through the remainder of the work week as high
pressure builds south from Canada. In fact, high temps by this
time next week may be struggling to reach the 70 degree mark.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT SAT SEP 23 2017

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Only a few high
level clouds will affect the region overnight. Diurnal cumulus
should develop Sunday around noon and dissipate by the evening
hours. Forecast soundings suggest isolated showers and storms are
possible during the afternoon. Coverage still looks low enough to
include the forecast though at this time.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...32
Aviation...CDB



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