Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 300840
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
340 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 336 AM CDT THU MAR 30 2017

The upper-level low responsible for storms on Wednesday will
continue to absorb back into the flow aloft and push eastward
throughout the day. Residual moisture will wrap around the attendant
surface low and will maintain chances of light rain showers across
much of the area. Given a stabilized environment, not
anticipating much, if any, thunder during this time.
Precipitation will gradually taper off from west to east late this
afternoon and evening. Additional rainfall totals will approach
the quarter inch mark before the event wraps up. Heightened river
levels will thus not readily subside until the late week. By
Friday morning, dry conditions will return as a brief period of
shortwave ridging pushes overhead in advance of the next storm
system. For today, temperatures will cool slightly compared to
yesterday in the wake of the exiting surface low. Values will
range from the upper 40s across northern Missouri into the mid 50s
for areas south of the Missouri River. Low level stratus will
remain in place through the short-term, with perhaps a brief
period of sun returning for the southern CWA by Friday evening.

Surface temperatures will increase to above seasonal values Saturday
for areas south of the Missouri River, coincident with the placement
of a warm front lifting north into central Missouri. Taking a look
at the pattern aloft, another upper level trough will approach the
Southern Plains, bringing the next chance of widespread
precipitation to the region. Embedded disturbances ejecting out of
the upper trough will provide modest ascent atop the warm sector
within deep layer moisture, which will bring a return of
precipitation to the area beginning Saturday evening. Instability
will be limited once again, though a few elevated thunderstorms
are possible Saturday night into Sunday. Activity will diminish by
Sunday afternoon/evening with a return of dry conditions for the
early work week. The active pattern will reset once again by the
mid-week as a stronger upper level trough advances closer overhead
compared to the previous southern track storm systems.


&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1221 AM CDT THU MAR 30 2017

Combination of IFR and LIFR conditions are developing across
western Missouri and eastern Kansas. Conditions are expected to
remain rather poor for the next 24 hours as low clouds and showers
move across the region with the upper level low that is currently
spinning over eastern Kansas. However, while flight conditions
will be poor through Thursday, confidence on the specifics in the
TAF is low and will likely require much amending.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Welsh
Aviation...Cutter


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