648
FXUS65 KFGZ 170942
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
242 AM MST Fri May 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Warmer and drier weather will return to northern
Arizona Friday through the weekend, with winds gradually
increasing each afternoon. Unsettled weather is possible next
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Clear skies were being observed across Arizona in
the early morning hours as a weak high pressure system began to
move in from the west. For today look for a bit warmer daytime
temperatures and afternoon west to southwest breezes at a pretty
typical 10 to 20 mph. Enough moisture will linger across the area
for a few afternoon fair weather cumulus over the mountains.

For Saturday and Sunday...The high will move eastward as a long-
wave trough begins to build over the western states. The result
will be strengthening pressure gradients for stronger winds and a
distinct shift to a more southwesterly direction. Afternoon sustained
winds in the 10 to 20 mph range with gusts near 30 mph are likely
each day. It will remain dry.

On Monday and Tuesday...A stronger short-wave trough will rotate
through the western states long-wave pattern producing even
stronger winds. Look for southwest winds at 15 to 25 mph gusting
to over 40 mph, especially from about Flagstaff eastward Monday
afternoon. The main concern on Monday will be a heightened fire
weather threat as dry air and gusty winds combine for a
environment more conducive to fire spread. By Tuesday there will
be enough moisture and dynamic lift combined with cooling aloft
associated with the short-wave trough for a slight chance of high
based showers near the Arizona/Utah border. Winds will lighten up
a bit later on Tuesday as the short-wave moves eastward.

From Wednesday onward...A series of short-wave troughs continue
to brush northern Arizona delivering afternoon west to southwest
breezes each day and periodic slight chances for high-bsed showers
along the Arizona/Utah border.


&&

.AVIATION...Friday 17/06Z through Saturday 18/06Z...VFR conditions
and mainly light west and southwest winds. Stronger gusts of 20
to 30 knots may develop Friday afternoon and evening from KINW to
KSJN. Elsewhere, expect peak gusts around 20 knots Friday
afternoon.

OUTLOOK...Saturday 18/06Z through Monday 20/06Z...VFR conditions
and southwest winds 10 to 20 knots with gusts to 30 knots each
day.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Saturday...Dry conditions return. South to
west winds 10-20 mph with afternoon RH values between 10-20%.

Sunday through Tuesday...Warm and dry conditions will continue.
Southwest to west winds 15-25 mph gusting to 30-35 mph Sunday,
increasing to 25-35 mph gusting to 35-45 mph on Monday, then
decreasing on Tuesday. Afternoon RH values will range between 5-15%
each day. Near critical fire weather concerns, especially across
eastern Arizona, on Monday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...McCollum
AVIATION...Benji
FIRE WEATHER...McCollum

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff