Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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318 FXUS65 KFGZ 150345 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 845 PM MST Tue May 14 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Low pressure will cross to our south on Wednesday, bringing a chance for showers and thunderstorms through Thursday. Drier, warmer, and breezy conditions arrive Friday, continuing through the weekend. && .UPDATE...A few showers have persisted past sunset this evening with isolated, weak thunderstorms impacting areas in northeast Arizona. This last bit of activity will subside over the next couple hours. Partly to mostly cloudy skies overnight will help to keep early morning temperatures a bit warmer for some areas. High temperatures Wednesday will be highly dependent on cloud cover and the location of precipitation with areas that receive rain on the cooler side. Overall, temperatures remain near average for this time of year. Minimal updates were made to the forecast this evening to account for the aforementioned ongoing showers. && .PREV DISCUSSION /451 PM MST/...Low pressure will move onshore in southern California tonight while a trough to our north starts to dive down to the southeast. The low will cross to the south of our area on Wednesday, then moves off to the east of our area on Thursday as a ridge of high pressure makes its way into the desert southwest. Wednesday and Thursday...moisture will continue to increase across the region on Wednesday with more widespread chances for showers and scattered thunderstorms. While we expect an increase in shower coverage, the rainfall amounts still do not look all that impressive. Most areas that do see some rain will see around 0.10" or less, though some of the more robust storms may drop between 0.25- 0.40". Dynamics are not stellar with this system but any thunderstorms that do develop will have the potential to have some outflow winds in the 30-40 mph range. With the aforementioned trough diving towards the southeast, we will keep some energy moving through the region during the night. With that in mind, it seems likely that there will be some ongoing shower activity as we head through the overnight and into Thursday morning. By Thursday morning, the trough and its lingering energy should be more situated over New Mexico and any early morning showers should be dwindling. Heading through the day Thursday, the low pushes to the east of the region and the more northerly flow should allow for some drier air to infiltrate the region. However, there will still be plenty of moisture in place through day and another round of showers and thunderstorms can be expected. The areas that see showers will be more confined to the Mogollon Rim through the White Mountains, through some isolated showers may develop elsewhere. Shower activity will wane through the evening and everything looks to start clearing out across the region overnight as the dry air wins out. Friday through Tuesday...a ridge of high pressure will follow in the wake of the departing low and trough, allowing the region to dry out and start to warm once again. Consensus is fairly good that we will keep the ridges influence through much of the weekend before the models start to diverge a bit. Another trough/low is expected to develop over the eastern Pacific and track towards Arizona for the start of the week. There are enough differences in the model solutions to have a lower confidence on just how strong/deep the low/trough may be and just how much moisture it may be able to advect into the region. However, it does look unsettled and windy through late in the weekend and into early next week. Stay tuned as we start to unravel what this system may bring to our area. && .AVIATION...Wednesday 15/00Z through Thursday 16/00Z...Mainly VFR conditions are forecast. Brief periods of MVFR conditions are possible in showers/thunderstorms through the early evening and again Wednesday from late morning through the afternoon. Be on the lookout for strong and gusty winds near heavier showers or storms. Otherwise, light and variable winds overnight will become southwest to west at 10-20 kts Wednesday afternoon. OUTLOOK...Thursday 16/00Z through Saturday 18/00Z...Mainly VFR conditions are expected. Precipitation chances will linger through 12Z Thursday, but drier conditions look to return for much of Thursday and Friday. Winds will generally be out of the west 10-20 kts each afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER...Wednesday and Thursday...Scattered showers/thunderstorms expected both Wednesday and Thursday, but look for greater coverage Wednesday afternoon. Expect mostly west winds 5- 15 mph Wednesday, becoming more northwest winds on Thursday. Minimum RH values look to be between 15-30% each afternoon. Friday through Sunday...Warmer and drier weather conditions are expected through the weekend. Look for west-southwest winds 15-25 mph, gusting near 30 mph each afternoon. Expect minimum RH values ranging between 10-20%. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Mazon/Meola AVIATION...McCollum FIRE WEATHER...Konieczny For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff