483
FXUS64 KJAN 160659 AAC
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
159 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Tonight and tomorrow...

Quiet conditions will continue in the near term as shortwave ridging
builds aloft. We transition to a warm advection regime tomorrow
ahead of our next system and will see clouds build in from the west
throughout the day. By late afternoon a few showers and storms may
move into the far southwestern parts of our area as storms begin to
spread further east from west Louisiana./SAS/

Thursday-Friday....

A strengthening southern jet and positively tilted trough axis
shifting across the Southern Plains will send multiple rounds of
shortwaves and associated cold front across the area. The will
provide a good storm environment ahead of impending showers and
storms; favorable low-level moisture, increasing instability and
dewpoints in the low-mid 70s. Thursday evening the chances for
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will increase
steadily from west to east through Friday evening. With better
model agreement the main conscience is Thursday evening-Friday
evening will be the time frame for possible severe weather with
Friday having the best potential for severe. The primary risk will
be the heavy rainfall with the possibility of flash flooding
extending through the weekend as rainfall totals could reach 3-5
inches from Thursday- Saturday morning with locally higher
amounts.Thus a flash flood watch has been issued from 6Z Friday-6Z
Saturday. A marginal risk for Thursday night and a slight risk
for Friday for the aforementioned severe storms has been added to
the HWO for Thursday evening through Friday evening.

Saturday: The chances for showers and storms will diminish from west
to east throughout the course of the day as a cold front passes
through the area. By Saturday evening, the upper-level trough axis
clears eastward as temperatures will trend on the warmer and dryer
side behind the front.

Sunday-Tuesday: By Sunday axis will build over the area, gradually
intensifying through the end of the period. Expect high temperatures
to steadily climb into the low 90s to end the period./KVP/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 157 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

VFR conditions to start the period at the TAF sites, however some
patchy BR could develop near a few sites with light winds. Chances
for SHRA and TSRA will increase from west to east between 00Z-06Z
Friday. Low ceilings and variable visibility is possible in that
time frame as rain spreads east. /NF/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       65  83  67  85 /  80  80  50  40
Meridian      64  85  66  86 /  70  90  60  50
Vicksburg     65  83  67  86 /  90  70  40  20
Hattiesburg   68  86  69  86 /  70  80  50  50
Natchez       64  84  67  86 /  90  70  40  20
Greenville    67  81  67  86 /  80  70  40  30
Greenwood     67  81  66  85 /  80  80  40  40

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Flood Watch from late tonight through late Friday night for
     MSZ047>066-072>074.

LA...Flood Watch from late tonight through late Friday night for
     LAZ015-016-023>026.

AR...None.
&&

$$

SW/KP/NF