029
FXUS64 KJAN 090603
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
103 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

...New AVIATION...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 831 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Rest of Tonight... The severe weather outlook for the next few hours
has all but dissipated as strong capping in the northern portions of
the CWA has resulted in limited attempts at convection and the
diurnal cumulus field has largely dissipated with the setting sun.
Better potential for showers and storms will be in the
overnight/early morning hours mainly after 2am and will be largely
confined to along and north of the hwy-82 corridor. This will be
along the sagging remnant boundary from generally decaying storms
approaching from Arkansas/Northern Louisiana. Should any briefly
stronger, isolated storm form along this boundary, the environment
could support some lower risk for damaging wind gusts and/or hail up
to quarter size. Isolated light showers will be possible elsewhere
but stronger storms are not expected.

The forecast into tomorrow appears to still be on track with a
mostly dry Thursday followed by a stormy overnight period. Timing
details will continue to be dependent on upstream storms that could
develop near the Texarkana area by tomorrow afternoon which could
affect when the best window for severe weather locally occurs.
Details regarding that evolution will be addressed in the full
forecast package tonight and into Thursday prior to the severe
threat. /KP/86/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 235 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Through Thursday: A capping inversion has continued to keep a lid on
shower and thunderstorm development so far today. However, there is
still a chance a few cells will break through late this afternoon
into early this evening, especially along and north of the US 82
corridor. If any storms do develop, they could become severe given
strong instability and deep layer shear. Damaging wind gusts and
hail up to 1" are the main concerns. The threat should taper off by
shortly after sunset, then a lull in activity is expected during the
middle of the evening.

Later on tonight, convection developing north and west of the area
will advance south and eastward and may begin to reach northern
portions of the forecast area after midnight. Overall, these storms
are expected to be more vigorous and numerous across parts of the
Midsouth then begin to weaken with southward progress overnight.
However, particularly where convection is more organized, there is
potential for storms to maintain damaging wind and perhaps
marginally severe hail potential into southeast AR, portions of
north LA, and northern portions of central MS during the early
morning hours Thursday. The severe threat is expected to end by
daybreak, though some showers and storms may linger into the morning
hours tomorrow before subsidence in the wake of this round of storms
provides a lull in activity. Isolated showers or storms will begin
to redevelop in the heating of the afternoon Thursday, but greater
convective potential will hold off until the nighttime hours. /DL/

Thursday night through Tuesday: An Enhanced Risk(3 out of 4) of
severe storms is currently outlooked for our CWA between Highway 82
and Highway 84. Confidence has increased in the potential of
convection organizing into and mcs to our west Thursday afternoon
and moving east across the central portions of our CWA Thursday
night. Damaging wind gusts of 75mph will be the main threat but hail
up to the size of golf balls will also be possible. In addition
tornadoes cannot be ruled out and locally heavy rainfall of one to
two inches in a short amount of time will be possible. There still
remains a spread in the guidance with timing but model consensus
suggests that the mcs will be moving into our western most zones
during the early evening and exiting out eastern most zones well
before sunrise Friday. Although the severe threat will end before
sunrise, a cold front will be moving through our CWA Friday morning
and some anafrontal rainfall will prolong rain chances.

By Friday evening the cold front is expected to be pushing off the
Gulf coast with a surface high building into our CWA from the west.
A subtle shortwave within the continued west to northwest flow aloft
is expected to move across the region Friday night into Saturday
morning but will have little moisture to work with and no
additional precipitation is expected. Temperatures will be cooler
than normal and in the 50s for morning lows Saturday. With northwest
flow aloft continuing and the surface high shifting east across the
region Saturday, cooler than normal and dry weather is expected to
continue through Sunday morning but temperatures will warm back
above normal by Sunday afternoon as weak shortwave ridging moves
over our region and return flow increases. Moisture will continue to
increase into Monday and rain chances will return in our west Sunday
night ahead of the next low pressure system to affect our CWA Monday
and Monday night. Models are starting to come into better agreement
with this low pressure system that looks to involve a nearly stacked
low over the central Plains. The potential for severe storms over
our CWA looks to be increasing Monday afternoon and night. /22/
/22/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 103 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

VFR conditons and southerly winds around 10 kts to start off the
period. Several southern TAF sites are staring to see MVFR
ceilings due to low stratus developing south of the I-20 corridor.
MVFR ceilings will continue to develop across central MS through
the overnight with possible IFR ceilings developing around 09Z
Thursday. The chance for SHRA/TSRA could start to occur starting
around 09-13Z, however confidence in impacts from thunder was too
low to include except for GTR at this time. In addition, a brief
period of low-level wind shear will occur across GTR starting
around 06-07Z Thursday. Between 15Z-18Z, ceilings should start to
lift into VFR range and rain chances should begin to diminish.
Storm chances will start to increase around 00Z Friday. Some of
these storms will likely become severe around this timeframe. /CR/



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       90  66  80  57 /  50  70  10   0
Meridian      91  64  82  55 /  60  70  20   0
Vicksburg     90  66  80  58 /  40  70   0   0
Hattiesburg   93  69  85  58 /  40  70  30   0
Natchez       91  66  82  58 /  40  70  10   0
Greenville    89  64  78  58 /  30  40   0   0
Greenwood     89  63  78  55 /  30  50   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

DL/22/CR/KP