323
FXUS64 KJAN 191139
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
639 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 421 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Today and Tonight:

Patchy, dense fog development will be possible in eastern portions
of the CWA during early morning hours but is expected to dissipate
after sunrise. A quiet, dry, and sunny day is expected across the
ArkLaMiss region as an upper/mid level ridge migrate towards the
area from the southwest. High temperatures are expected to be in the
upper 80s to near 90 degrees to help make for a very warm day.
Clear skies and quiet conditions will continue into the evening
with overnight temperatures ranging from the lower 60s to near 70
degrees in the Delta region. Fog development may be possible
towards the southern area closer to daybreak on Monday. /SW/

Monday through Saturday: Much of the long range forecast for our
area will feature rather hot days, with dry weather early in the
week giving way to the potential for stormier conditions by mid
to late week. Anticyclonic flow associated with a subtropical
ridge extending from Mexico into the Southern Plains will have the
most influence on our weather, and with H850 temperatures
approaching 20 deg C in the global models, it wouldn`t be
surprising to see a few locations reach the mid 90s at some point.
Fortunately, the boundary layer RH is not expected to
reciprocate, and this should help keep heat stress from becoming a
big concern.

As we go into mid/late week, a significant shortwave trough
moving across the Plains/MS Valley is expected to suppress the
ridge some and allow a cold front to push into our region. This
will likely increase thunderstorm chances for northwest/northern
portions of the forecast area, where increased mid level flow
could help to organize potential storms resulting in increased
potential for strong to severe storms. As of now, the severe
threat only grazes the upper ArkLaMiss region, and it is likely
that the anticyclone will delay storm impacts for most of the
area, so will continue to hold off on messaging severe weather in
the graphics until confidence increases. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 628 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Areas of fog will dissipate early this morning, and then VFR
flight conditions should prevail thereafter along with light
surface wind.  /SW/EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       87  66  89  68 /   0   0   0   0
Meridian      88  64  89  66 /   0   0   0   0
Vicksburg     88  66  91  69 /   0   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   89  66  91  68 /   0   0   0   0
Natchez       88  67  90  69 /   0   0   0   0
Greenville    89  69  91  71 /   0   0   0   0
Greenwood     88  67  91  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

$$

SW/EC/SW