Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 232311
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
611 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 154 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

No sensible weather seen in the short term period.  Current visible
imagery shows a cloudless sky over northeast Kansas as surface high
pressure resides across the area centered over northwestern
Missouri.  Even with plentiful diurnal heating, high temperatures
late this afternoon will only reach into the upper 70s and low 80s,
slightly cooler than average temperatures for this time of year.
Clear skies will remain overnight and low temperatures will dip into
the upper 50s.  With some patchy ground fog seen this morning, there
is a chance a few areas may see some light fog formation, but
nothing widespread enough to mention in the forecast.  For tomorrow,
surface high pressure shifts northeast and mid-level northwest flow
continues over the area.  Slightly warmer highs for tomorrow, albeit
still in the low 80s with the exception of central and north central
Kansas where mid-80 temperatures are seen.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 154 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

Both ECMWF and GFS show an upper trough digging into the Midwest
early next week while the tropical system Harvey meanders along
the TX coast. As the system across the Midwest passes over the
weekend a weak cold front may attempt to sag through the area.
This should provide some chance for precip later Saturday through
Sunday. Given the tropical system there is plenty of uncertainty
in the evolution of the longwave pattern including timing of any
sfc front over the weekend. At this point both models suggest that
the upper trough will pass along with the front by early next week
keeping any precip with the tropical system well SE of the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 606 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

VFR prevails as sfc high pressure shifts eastward, veering light
winds to the southeast Thursday afternoon.

&&


.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Heller
LONG TERM...Omitt
AVIATION...Prieto


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