Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 240511
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1211 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

20Z water vapor imagery continues to show a mean trough over the
western U.S. with southwest flow persisting over the central plains.
A MCV is seen in the water vapor and profiler data near the KS/MO
state line and continues to slowly drift east. At the surface, an
area of low pressure was analyzed over the OK panhandle with an
inverted trough of low pressure extending through eastern NEB. Low
level trajectories remain favorable for low level moisture advection
north.

For tonight, the main question is where will the next round of
convection develop and where will the resulting MCS and/or MCV
track. High resolution models vary from storms over central NEB to
southwest KS. Overall, think convergence along the inverted trough
axis to the northwest of the forecast area should be the main focus
for redevelopment as low level moisture continues to advect north.
However given the uncertainty of where storms may track overnight,
the forecast only has POPs at 50 percent for the overnight hours and
into Tuesday morning. I think it may play out similar to today where
storms to the west generate an MCV and that causes showers and
storms to fester over the area for a good portion of the day.
Although there is low confidence in the location of the showers and
storms. Deep layer shear is progged to be somewhat better tonight
and Tuesday. So there should be a little better potential for severe
storms. If the MCS is able to form a good cold pool, There could be
strong winds and hail with the storms overnight. Lows tonight should
again be in the lower to mid 60s due to cloud cover and the moist
airmass remaining over the region. Highs Tuesday of around 80
degrees are based on mixing the boundary layer to around 875MB with
some insolation. This may be overdone though if an area of clouds and
precip linger for a long time over any location.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

Thunderstorm chances will continue to be the main concern through
the extended forecast. Initial concern will be convective chances
Tuesday evening and Tuesday night. Depending on the duration of any
thunderstorms during the day Tuesday and any mesoscale boundary
could focus convection in the evening if convergence is strong
enough. Otherwise convection firing off of the dryline in western
Kansas may move into parts of north central Kansas overnight into
early Wednesday morning as the low level jet veers across northeast
Kansas. Models show capping inversion across the area through the
day on Wednesday and most of the day may remain dry after initial
morning convection ends. Dryline is forecast to remain to the west
of the forecast area in the afternoon. The models hint at a weak
wave moving northeast out of Colorado in the late afternoon and may
help initiate storms in northwest and parts of north central Kansas.
Shear is favorable across north central Kansas for supercells where
0-6km shear of 45 to 50 kts is forecast along with an unstable
airmass. Additional energy may move out across western and central
Kansas Wednesday night, this along with convergence across southern
Nebraska and northern Kansas around 850 mb may also cause showers
and thunderstorms to train along the border overnight Wednesday into
early Thursday morning. On Thursday and Thursday night a more potent
upper level trough will move northeast across western and central
Kansas and should fire storms along the dryline that is forecast to
be just west of our CWA. Again shear and instability coupled along
with good forcing for ascent will likely lead to severe storms
across parts of north central and northeast Kansas. The dryline and
frontal boundary looks to remain just to the west of the forecast
area through Saturday before retreating westward on Sunday. This
will act as a focus each day for storms as weaker waves move out of
the western trough and out into the Plains. Shear is weaker over the
weekend and into next Monday across central and eastern Kansas and
there may be a few stronger storms across the area. Temperatures
through the period will remain in the upper 70s to mid 80s with lows
mainly in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1211 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

MVFR cloud on the increase from the south and will be impacting
the terminals in the next few hours. Will be monitoring convective
trends but still appears a window around 11-14Z will be the main
window of potential.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...65


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