Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 011737 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1037 AM MST Wed Mar 1 2017

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
Upper ridge building over Great Basin/NM next 24 hrs with decreasing
nw winds aloft. Sfc high pressure over Four Corners with developing
lee trough to result in occasionally gusty nw to nly winds to around
35kt before 18Z-00Z. Nly drainage winds to develop aft 02/06Z in the
RGV. VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...202 AM MST Wed Mar 1 2017...
.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures central and east will be several degrees cooler today as
cooler air funnels in from the northeast. Meanwhile, overall
temperatures will be 5 to 15 degrees below normal but values will
rebound across western areas. Temperatures central and east will
rebound Thursday as the warm and dry trend prevails for the next
several days. Temperatures will be above normal by Friday with higher
readings across the eastern plains over the weekend. Southwest
breezes will pick up Sunday as another upper level trough pushes
through the Colorado Rockies.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Left over energy from the passing upper level trough will usher a
weak back door cold front into the eastern plains this morning.
Cooler air will funnel in behind the front keeping temperatures
cooler central and east today before they rebound Thurs. Meanwhile,
NW flow aloft will usher drier air into the state helping
temperatures to rebound across western areas...but overall
temperatures will remain 5 to 15 degrees below normal. NW flow aloft
will persist through Fri helping temperatures rebound above normal
for the up and coming weekend. Although models do show an upper level
trough getting undercut by upper level ridging over the western US
Fri, any weather associated with the low will pass farther south of
NM.

By the weekend, NW flow aloft will become W-SW with winds increasing
Sun ahead of another approaching upper level trough that will pass
through the central Rockies Mon. Meanwhile, temperatures will be 10
to 20 degrees above normal with warmer readings across the eastern
plains. By Monday, winds will really crank across the state with
700mb winds topping 50-60kts. Winds could reach advisory/watch levels
across central and eastern NM. A well defined dry slot ahead of the
trough axis could develop some fire weather concerns for central and
eastern areas. Temperatures look to cool a few degrees Mon but remain
above normal...then values will rebound Tues/Wed after the trough
moves through the central Rockies.

32

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Brisk and dry northwest flow aloft will diminish rapidly by
afternoon. Northwest breezes will continue, however, across the
northwest half of NM as surface high pressure builds into the Great
Basin. A weak backdoor boundary/front will slide south through
eastern NM today bringing cooler conditions and light north to
northeast winds to the eastern plains.

Dry and warmer weather under a building upper level high remains on
track Thursday and Friday. Light winds Thursday will give way to a
lee surface trough and moderate southwest winds in the east Friday.
The warming trend will continue into the weekend as the upper high
remains overhead.

As the above mentioned ridge shifts east of the state early next
week, westerly winds will increase most areas. Dry condtions are
forecast to prevail as upper troughs remain north of the area.

Ventilation rates will range from poor to fair most areas today,
decreasing all areas Thursday. Vent rates increase areawide Friday,
continuing into Saturday.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$


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