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000
FXUS65 KABQ 250531 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1131 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
UNEVENTFUL WX REMAINDER OF TNGT THRU FRI AM.  JUST PATCHY VFR
MID/HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED VICINITY OF THE FOUR CORNERS AND
LINGERING NEAR THE NM/CO LINE. MID-LEVEL DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE
THAT EFFECTIVELY SHUT DOWN TODAY/S TSRA CROP WILL CARRY OVER INTO
FRI PM...THOUGH LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE NORTHERN 1/3 OF
NM AND AREAS NEAR THE NM/AZ LINE WILL HAVE SLIGHTLY BETTER PROSPECTS
FOR A FEW SHRA/TSRA LATTER HALF OF PERIOD. STILL A LOW GRADE MONSOON
FCST WITH QUIET VFR CONDITIONS TO PREDOMINATE. MOST CONFIDENT OF
SHRA/TSRA IMPACTS AT KFMN AFTER 19Z FRI WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE
AT KGUP. LITTLE OR NO CHANCE OF DIRECT IMPACTS AT REMAINING
TERMINAL SITES...THOUGH STEERING FLOW CONSIDERATIONS WOULD FAVOR
KLVS IF STORMS FIRE OVER THE SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS. KJ

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...650 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014...
.UPDATE...
DECREASED POPS AND SKYCOVER IN MANY LOCATIONS BASED ON RECENT
SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS. DRY AIR WRAPPING INTO A STRONG UPPER
HIGH FROM THE NE WILL LIMIT CONVECTION.  44

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH ALOFT NOW CENTERED OVER NM AND LOOKS TO STAY OVER OR EXTREMELY
CLOSE TO THE STATE THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY OR MONDAY. ALSO ITS
AXIS WILL STRETCH MORE FROM WEST TO EAST BY FRI WHICH WILL LIMIT
VERY MUCH MOISTURE FROM SEEPING INTO THE STATE FROM THE SOUTH.
STEERING FLOW WILL BECOME GENERALLY WEST TO EAST OVER THE NORTH
QUARTER OR PERHAPS THIRD OF THE STATE ALLOWING AT LEAST A FEW
STORMS TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN TIER OF NM BY THE AFTN AS SOUTHERN
EDGE OF WHAT IS LEFT OF THE MONSOON PLUME SKIRTS THE NORTH.
EXPECTING NO OR JUST A VERY FEW STORMS ELSEWHERE. HAD TO BACK OFF
AND SHRINK BACK POPS ADDITIONAL TO SOME DEGREE FOR TONIGHT INTO
SAT BASED BOTH ON HOW LITTLE ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED THROUGH 3 PM
IN THE STATE AND WHAT THE LATEST FCST MODEL RUNS ARE IMPLYING.
TEMPS WILL LIKELY RISE A FEW MORE DEGREES AT LEAST ACROSS CENTRAL...
SOUTH AND EASTERN AREAS FRI AND OR SAT WITH THIS REORIENTING OF
THE UPPER HIGH. IN FACT SAT WILL LIKELY FEATURE TRIPLE DIGIT HIGH
TEMPS OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE EASTERN TIER OF THE STATE WITH
MOSTLY LOW TO MODERATE STORM CHANCES ACROSS GENERALLY THE NORTH
AND WEST...LESS SO ELSEWHERE. BETWEEN LATE SAT AND SUN A BACK DOOR
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE SOME INROADS INTO NM WITH MORE FCST
MODELS THAN NOT MAKING THE CASE FOR DEEPER PENETRATION OF SAID
FRONT...OR A REINFORCEMENT...LATE SUN INTO MON. BEHIND THIS FRONT
WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS...CAPE...AND DIRECTIONAL
WIND SHEAR. KEPT POPS UP MOSTLY AS PREVIOUS TO REFLECT THIS...
MEANING A SIGNIFICANT IF NOT DRAMATIC INCREASE IN RAIN COVERAGE .

YET ANOTHER BACK DOOR BOUNDARY LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY GOOD
POSSIBILITY LATER TUE OR TUE NIGHT PROVIDING ANOTHER INCENTIVE FOR
INCREASED SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR MIDWEEK. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH REAL ESTATE IN THE STATE ANY OF THESE
FRONTS WILL BE ABLE TO MANAGE BUT AT LEAST 1 OR 2 SHOULD AT LEAST
BREACH THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN...IF NOT MAKE IT ALL THE WAY INTO
WEST NM.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST. HUMIDITY VALUES
FELL TODAY DUE TO A MORE STABLE AND DRIER AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. THE MAIN MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FAR
WEST OR NORTHWEST THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. BEST CHANCE OF WETTING
RAIN WOULD BE FOUND OVER THAT AREA ALTHOUGH THE FOOTPRINT WOULD BE
SMALL. LOWEST RH VALUES AREAWIDE WILL MOST LIKELY BE FRIDAY. A
LITTLE BIT OF SOME MOISTURE SEEPAGE SATURDAY. GUSTIER SOUTHWEST
BREEZES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL LOWER EARLY THIS EVENING. CANT RULE OUT ISOLATED RED FLAG
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON BUT LOCALIZED. THE
AFFECTED AREA HAS ALSO RECEIVED SOME GREENUP DUE TO PREVIOUS WETTING
RAINS. LESS WIND FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DUE TO WEAKER LEE SIDE
TROUGHING. OUTFLOW WIND WOULD REMAIN THE BIGGEST CONCERN BUT SHORT
LIVED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...BOTH DAY AND NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY.

HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR A PROLIFIC MOISTURE PUSH SUNDAY VIA A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT. COOLING FROM EAST TO WEST SUNDAY THROUGH THE  EARLIER
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS MEANS NEAR NORMAL TEMPS...IF NOT BELOW
NORMAL DURING THE AFTERNOONS FOR A FEW DAYS. HUMIDITY VALUES AND CLOUD
COVER WOULD CERTAINLY INCREASE DURING THIS PERIOD.  REINFORCING BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED BY MIDWEEK. WETTING RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND FAVOR THE NORTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. SECONDARY AREA COULD BE THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
BUT WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE MAIN MONSOONAL PLUME ENDS UP. THE UPPER
HIGH IS STILL EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTH AND WESTWARD NEXT WEEK BUT
WOULD BE GRADUAL. WHEN THIS OCCURS....EASTERN HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE FAVORED FOR DAILY ROUNDS OF WETTING
STORMS. CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY GOOD FOR THE PATTERN CHANGE BY NEXT
WEEK.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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