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000
FXUS65 KABQ 181806 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1206 PM MDT Fri Aug 18 2017

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected over the
south central mountains and into the southeast and east central
plains of the state this afternoon and evening. The usual small hail,
brief downpours, and gusty downburst winds will accompany any storms
with the potential for brief-lived MVFR ceilings/visibility.
Elsewhere conditions are expected to be too dry for storm
development with only light to moderate breezes anticipated through
early evening. On Saturday, better moisture will creep northward into
New Mexico, spreading isolated to scattered storms over more of the
state.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...233 AM MDT Fri Aug 18 2017...
.SYNOPSIS...
Another hot and relatively dry day is on tap, with isolated storms
relegated to eastern and south central portions of the state. Highs
today will be the hottest of the next seven and generally above
normal. Monsoon moisture will stream north from Mexico over the
weekend and into early next week, resulting in a significant uptick
in storms for much of the area. Daytime temperatures will fall below
normal during this period thanks to cloud cover and rain-cooling.
Going into the middle of next week, temperatures will trend back up
closer to normal as high pressure strengthens back over the state.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
An upper level trough is ejecting east out of the Rockies and forcing
a round of nocturnal convection that extends from the Dakotas south
and west into northeast New Mexico. The current round of storms will
move out of New Mexico around 12z, but another round of isolated
storms is forecast later today from the South Central Mountains north
and east into the Northeast Plains. Elsewhere, dry and hot conditions
are forecast with the upper high building directly over central
portions of the state to near 593dam at 500mb. Today will be the
hottest day of the next seven for many northern and central New
Mexico locales, with highs generally above normal.

PWATs will make a run over the weekend, from below normal to above
normal for mid to late August as the upper high splits and allows
moisture to stream north from Mexico. The 00z model solutions are in
decent agreement in depicting an inverted trough progressing north
across the state over the weekend. With above normal PWATs and
relatively slow storm motion, locally heavy rainfall is looking more
and more probable. The locally heavy rainfall threat for Saturday
looks to be confined to central and southern portions of the Central
Mountain Chain, where localized amounts near two inches are possible.
With the moisture surge comes clouds and rain-cooling, so daytime
temperatures will trend down below normal and stay there going into
early next week.

00z medium range model solutions depart with the placement and
orientation of the ridge going into the middle of next week, with the
further west ECMWF solution allowing a backdoor front to slide down
late Tuesday. Either way, daily rounds of storms will persist with no
significant drying seen through the end of next week.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Monsoon moisture will make a return this weekend with a significant
increase in shower and thunderstorm activity expected later Saturday
and especially Sunday into Monday for areas that have dried out the
past few days. Until then, today will be another down day for a vast
majority of the area. Unseasonably low dew point temperatures in
place for central and western areas will contribute to another
afternoon with min RH values in the teens if not slightly lower west
of the Divide.  The focus for isolated to scattered storms will once
again be across the east where sufficient moisture remains in place.
Max temperatures will trend upward a few degrees, mainly north-
central and northwest areas,  with afternoon readings 2 to 5 degrees
above seasonal averages.

Broad clockwise flow around high pressure aloft consolidating over
central TX on Saturday will be complemented by a weak, baggy trough
along the southern CA coast. The resultant southerly flow will
quickly reestablish and direct a solid monsoon moisture plume
initially over southwest and south-central NM first half of Saturday
with deeper moisture gradually advancing northward Saturday night
into Sunday. Dew point temperatures across central/western areas
will jump from mostly 30s this afternoon to the mid 40s to mid 50s
by Sunday PM. Models still consistent advertising a slow-moving
tropical wave embedded within the monsoon plume that will likely
maintain active showers and thunderstorms through the overnight
Saturday night into Sunday.  The Rio Grande Valley corridor,
neighboring central mountain ranges to the southern Sangres look to
realize the most widespread, heaviest thunderstorm-rainfall.

Appears that ample moisture will remain in place Monday and Tuesday
for daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms although the influence
of the tropical wave will largely wane after Sunday night. The ECMWF
is more generous with the coverage of convective precipitation on
Monday vice the GFS, which looks premature in drying us out in the
presence of a persistent southerly flow.  Thereafter,  an easterly
wave approaching from Gulf Coast coupled with the baggy trough
filling and lifting northeast to the west of the Four Corners will
create a mixed bag across the area. Drying/subsidence may be in the
offing for the southeast half while an active monsoon plume remains
across northwest half presuming the upper ridge axis between the two
above mentioned features is not too far west. Overall, standard
monsoon forecast into the extended.

KJ

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$