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000
FXUS65 KABQ 051805 AAD
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1105 AM MST THU DEC 5 2013

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN WITH A STREAM OF MOISTURE
CROSSING S...CENTRAL AND E PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL LEAD TO
CONTINUED WINTER PCPN E OF THE CONTDVD. MODELS KEEP CENTRAL AND E
TAF SITES SOCKED IN WITH LOW CLOUDS TODAY...BUT THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW LONG HEAVIER PCPN WILL LAST. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT MOVING INTO CENTRAL AREAS FM
THE SW...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE PCPN TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY AND MAY EVEN RESULT IN PERIODS OF VFR CONDITIONS W OF
THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN. WITH UPPER CLOUDS CONTINUING TO CLEAR DUE
TO THE DRY SLOT...RESULTANT RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD CAUSE WDSPR
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD TO DEVELOP TONIGHT WHERE FRESH SNOW
COVERS THE GROUND. MODELS PROG THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH TO
SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD SUNRISE ON FRIDAY...WHICH
SHOULD ENABLE A DRYING WESTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP AT LOW LEVELS AND
IMPROVE FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO VFR IN MOST LOCATIONS BY LATE
MORNING.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...932 AM MST THU DEC 5 2013...
QUICK UPDATE TO TWEAK SNOW FORECAST BASED ON RECENT RADAR TRENDS
AND SFC REPORTS AND TO LOWER AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES.
IMPRESSIVELY COLD AIRMASS STILL FILTERING INTO RG VALLEY FROM THE
NORTH AND EAST...LIKELY FREEZING WET AREAS ON ROADS SHORTLY AND
MAKING TRAVEL QUITE THE MESS THROUGH TONIGHT.

33

.PREV DISCUSSION...731 AM MST THU DEC 5 2013...
BASED ON RECENT REPORTS...TRAFFIC CAMS....AND RADAR TRENDS...HAVE
OPTED TO UPGRADE THE SANTA FE METRO AREA INTO A WINTER STORM
WARNING...WITH 4 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS IF THE NAM IS TO BE BELIEVED. HAVE ALSO LOWERED TEMPERATURES
ANOTHER SEVERAL NOTCHES ACROSS THE BOARD AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO
PLUMMET THIS MORNING. 06Z MAV GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE ON THE RIGHT
TRACK AS ROSWELL FORECAST HIGH DROPPED FROM 52 ON THE 00Z RUN TO
37 ON THE 06Z RUN...HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT IT IS 26 CURRENTLY...WITH
LITTLE ROOM TO WARM UP...THE 06Z RUN IS LIKELY OVERDONE AS WELL.
OTHERWISE...TWEAKED WX AND SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.
NEW WSW ALREADY OUT.

34

.PREV DISCUSSION...347 AM MST THU DEC 5 2013...
THE ARCTIC AIR HAS ARRIVED.  SUSPECT THAT CURRENT TEMPERATURES MAY
BE THE WARMEST OF THE ENTIRE DAY IN SOME AREAS...AND THUS FEEL THAT
GUIDANCE IS OUT TO LUNCH IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS.  THUS HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BY 20 DEGREES OR SO
AROUND ROSWELL. EVEN COLDER AIR IS IN STORE TONIGHT AND IT STILL
APPEARS AS THOUGH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR
THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

EVENING SHIFT UPDATED/INCREASED POPS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND
THOSE TRENDS LOOK GOOD.  HAVE INCREASED THEM A BIT MORE WHERE THE
MAIN SNOW BAND IS EXPECTED TO SET UP TODAY.  STILL EXPECT TORRANCE
COUNTY AS WELL AS THE SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS AND NORTHWARD TOWARD
LAS VEGAS TO BE SOME OF THE HARDEST HIT AREAS.  MEANWHILE... THE
SNOW BAND HAS ALREADY MOVED EAST OUT OF NW NM.  THEREFORE...WILL
CANCEL THE WINTER WX ADVYS FOR ZONES 501-502-503...AND SUSPECT THE
DAY SHIFT WILL BE ABLE TO CANCEL ANOTHER ROW OF ZONES SOUTHEAST OF
THERE LATER TODAY.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT...MOST MODELS SHOW SOME SORT OF QPF ACROSS THE
EASTERN HIGH PLAINS WITH SOME SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A RELATIVELY SHALLOW SATURATED LAYER NEAR THE
SURFACE.  SUSPECT THAT THERE WILL BE SNOW FLURRIES...BUT FREEZING
FOG MAY ALSO BECOME A WIDESPREAD ISSUE.

THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE STATE ON SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF SNOWFALL EXPECTED FOR THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL ZONES
SATURDAY NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE IT ALSO MAY GET A LITTLE WINDY AS THE
NEXT FRONT PUSHES FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY SUNDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF
WINTER WX ADVISORIES MAY BE IN THE OFFING FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

AFTER SUNDAY...DRIER WEATHER LOOKS TO BE IN STORE...THOUGH
AGAIN...STILL VERY COLD.  MONDAY NIGHT MAY BE THE COLDEST OF THE
BUNCH...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL AREAS TO BE BELOW ZERO.

34

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT/S HERE... THE UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS HAS WORKED IT/S WAY DOWN
THE PLAINS AND THE UPPER TROF HAS PRODUCED A BROAD BAND OF
PRECIPITATION MAINLY SNOW...ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN...CENTRAL AND
NRN NM EARLY THIS MORNING. VENT RATES IN THE EAST AND EAST SLOPES OF
THE SANGRE CRISTO...SANDIA AND MANZANO MTS AS WELL AS UPPER RGV AND
TO A LESSER EXTENT...MIDDLE RGV...WILL BE MOSTLY POOR. GOOD TO
EXCELLENT VALUES WILL STILL BE FOUND IN THE WEST...ESPECIALLY WEST
OF THE CONTDVD. HIGHS WILL BE 20 TO NEARLY 40 DEG BELOW AVERAGE EAST
AND 10 TO 20 DEG BELOW WEST. ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TODAY AND TONIGHT
WILL FAVOR THE CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN AND ADJACENT EAST SLOPES AND
CENTRAL AND NE HIGHLANDS.

PRECIPITATION TO TAPER OFF LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO BE 15 TO AROUND 30 DEG BELOW AVERAGE OVERALL FRIDAY.
VENT RATES REMAIN POOR EAST AND ARE DIMINISHED WEST...BUT GOOD
VALUES STILL SPREAD OVER THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL.

CHANCES FOR SNOW INCREASE AGAIN BY SATURDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST A WEAK EASTERLY WIND INTO PORTIONS OF THE RGV. TEMPERATURES
MODIFY BUT STILL REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE. VENT RATES IMPROVE
MARKEDLY ON SUNDAY AS THE EXITING UPPER SYSTEM INCREASES THE
NORTHWEST TO WLY GRADIENT ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE SIGNIFICANTLY.
THIS SYSTEM SPREADS ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR OVER THE REGION SO
HIGH TEMPERATURE TRENDS WILL BE DOWNWARD FOR NEXT MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RECOVER TOWARDS NORMAL AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER...AT LEAST THE ECMWF INDICATES ANOTHER TROF COULD
IMPACT THE STATE ABOUT THAT TIME. IT STILL LOOKS TO BE DRY THOUGH.
THE GFS SUGGESTS AN UNSETTLED WX PATTERN MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK IN NW FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ512>516-518-521>524-528>534-537-539.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ519-520-525>527-535-536-538.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ506>508-511-517.

&&

$$