


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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660 FXUS65 KABQ 151136 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 536 AM MDT Tue Jul 15 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 531 AM MDT Tue Jul 15 2025 - Scattered showers and storms will favor central and western New Mexico today and tomorrow, creating a moderate risk of burn scar flash flooding. - Storm coverage trends up Thursday and Friday, increasing the threat of flash flooding with daily rounds of numerous showers and storms. - Gusty outflow winds, small hail, and dangerous lightning could accompany storms each day around the area. A few storms may become severe on Thursday. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 152 AM MDT Tue Jul 15 2025 The center of the monsoon ridge will nudge eastward into central AZ today, with light northerly flow prevailing over New Mexico. Storm motion will be slower the further west, with a more clear north to south motion closer to the central mountain chain. Scattered storms will quickly become outflow dominant as they move into the lower elevations during the afternoon and evening hours. Strong outflow wind gusts upwards of 40 mph will be the main hazard with these storms, but a few pulse severe storms may be able to produce marginally severe hail as well in the northeast and central highlands. While a Flash Flood Watch was not issued for the Ruidoso area, there is a non-zero risk of localized heavy rainfall on one of the area scars. HREF 90th percentile rainfall totals are less than 0.5", although they do show a 1" bullseye just to the west of the Blue 2 scar. HREF max precip is showing a few spots with 1-2" in the highlands just east of the central mountain chain, but less than 0.25" across almost all of central and northern NM. For this reason, there is not even a Marginal risk for flash flooding from WPC, suggesting there is a less than 5% chance off any off-scar flash flooding today. The center of the H5 ridge will continue trekking east on Wednesday, centering itself over north-central NM for the day`s round of convection. Max heights around 592dam won`t do much to suppress convective initiation given the strong daytime heating, but it will limit updraft strength to some extent. The slow and erratic storm motion will result in small wetting footprints, but heavy rainfall rates under these small footprints. This is concerning for the Ruidoso area and while QPF amounts are light at this time, a Flash Flood Watch may be needed given the localized nature of the heavy rainfall. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 152 AM MDT Tue Jul 15 2025 The monsoon ridge will move into W TX on Thursday. Combined with a near-stationary upper-low off the coast of Baja California, this will advect a plume of sub-tropical moisture in from the south. This will result in an uptick in both storm coverage and intensity. Storm motion will be south to north, with a slightly more westerly component to the flow in the northeast. This will drive storms off the northern mountains into the eastern plains and shear looks to be sufficient to support longer duration updrafts as this occurs. The 90th percentile QPF from both the GEFS and EPS are therefore hinting at the northeast plains as the most likely area to receive heavy rainfall totals. Clusters of storms with heavy rainfall rates (due to PWATs of 120-150% of normal) will bring rounds of storms to this area, enhancing the flash flood risk. Furthermore, 20 to 25 kts of bulk shear and strong instability will be enough to support at least isolated pulse severe storms. GEFS 90th percentile 24-hour rainfall totals already show a broad area of 1-2" across north-central and northeastern NM, but localized totals upwards of 3" cannot be ruled out with this pattern. Friday will be very similar to Thursday, with numerous showers and storms, except storm coverage may focus more over the southwest as opposed to the northeast. GEFS ensemble mean PWATs in Albuquerque peak on Friday (around 1.1"), even though both the deterministic GFS and NAM show around 1.3". A few severe storms cannot be ruled out on Friday, but it does look like the threat will be higher on Thursday. The plume of sub-tropical moisture will continue to tilt over the weekend, becoming more SW/NE oriented. This could be beneficial for the Ruidoso area as it would keep the deepest moisture and therefore highest storm coverage off to the west. Furthermore, the recent trend from the EPS is to bring drier air in from the southwest on Saturday and Sunday, resulting in a significant downtick in storm coverage. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 531 AM MDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Storms will develop over the high terrain around 18Z, slowly expanding in coverage and drifting south throughout the afternoon. Storms will generally occur along and west of the central mountain chain, although a few stronger storms could develop in the highlands east of the central mountain chain as well. Main concern with storms today will be gusty outflow winds of 30 to 40KT. VFR conditions will continue to prevail through the TAF period outside of brief MVFR to IFR visibility under stronger storms. Storms will begin to dissipate after 00Z, with only a few showers lingering after 03Z. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 152 AM MDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Critical fire weather conditions are not expected through the next 7 days. Scattered storms today and Wednesday will favor areas along and west of the central mountain chain, then storm coverage becomes more widespread Thursday through Saturday. Slow and erratic storm motion the next couple days will become more south to north late week as a plume of sub-tropical moisture is advected in from the south. Widespread wetting rainfall is likely on these days and a few locations in north and northeastern NM could see 3"+ in a 72 hour period. Outside of gusty outflow winds near storms, winds will generally be light the next several days. Storm chances will trend down Sunday into the early portion of next week as temperatures rise back up above seasonal averages. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 98 63 96 64 / 10 10 10 20 Dulce........................... 91 47 91 48 / 40 20 40 30 Cuba............................ 90 57 90 59 / 20 20 30 40 Gallup.......................... 93 54 89 56 / 30 40 40 50 El Morro........................ 87 56 85 56 / 40 50 60 60 Grants.......................... 92 56 89 57 / 40 40 50 50 Quemado......................... 89 59 86 58 / 60 60 70 70 Magdalena....................... 88 63 88 63 / 30 30 40 50 Datil........................... 86 58 84 56 / 60 50 60 50 Reserve......................... 91 53 88 53 / 70 50 70 60 Glenwood........................ 93 58 90 58 / 70 50 70 50 Chama........................... 84 48 85 49 / 40 20 50 30 Los Alamos...................... 87 61 86 61 / 40 20 40 30 Pecos........................... 87 58 87 58 / 40 20 40 40 Cerro/Questa.................... 86 56 85 55 / 40 10 60 40 Red River....................... 76 47 75 46 / 40 10 60 40 Angel Fire...................... 79 41 78 42 / 40 20 60 40 Taos............................ 88 53 88 54 / 40 10 40 40 Mora............................ 83 52 83 51 / 50 30 50 40 Espanola........................ 94 60 94 61 / 30 10 30 30 Santa Fe........................ 88 61 88 62 / 30 20 40 40 Santa Fe Airport................ 92 60 92 61 / 20 20 30 40 Albuquerque Foothills........... 94 69 94 70 / 20 30 30 50 Albuquerque Heights............. 95 67 95 68 / 10 20 20 40 Albuquerque Valley.............. 98 67 97 68 / 10 20 20 40 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 96 68 96 69 / 10 20 20 40 Belen........................... 97 64 97 66 / 10 20 20 40 Bernalillo...................... 97 66 97 67 / 20 20 20 40 Bosque Farms.................... 97 64 97 65 / 10 20 20 40 Corrales........................ 97 66 97 68 / 20 20 20 40 Los Lunas....................... 97 65 97 66 / 10 20 20 40 Placitas........................ 93 65 94 66 / 20 20 20 40 Rio Rancho...................... 96 66 96 68 / 10 20 20 40 Socorro......................... 97 69 97 69 / 20 20 20 40 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 89 60 89 60 / 20 20 30 40 Tijeras......................... 90 62 90 62 / 20 20 30 40 Edgewood........................ 90 56 90 57 / 20 20 30 40 Moriarty/Estancia............... 91 54 91 56 / 20 20 20 30 Clines Corners.................. 86 58 86 57 / 20 30 30 50 Mountainair..................... 88 59 89 58 / 20 30 20 40 Gran Quivira.................... 87 59 88 59 / 20 20 20 40 Carrizozo....................... 89 65 90 65 / 20 10 20 30 Ruidoso......................... 80 59 82 58 / 30 20 30 30 Capulin......................... 86 55 84 53 / 20 20 40 60 Raton........................... 90 54 88 54 / 20 20 40 50 Springer........................ 92 54 90 56 / 20 20 40 40 Las Vegas....................... 86 54 86 54 / 30 20 40 30 Clayton......................... 92 63 91 61 / 10 20 10 60 Roy............................. 89 58 88 58 / 20 20 10 40 Conchas......................... 96 64 96 66 / 10 20 5 40 Santa Rosa...................... 93 62 94 64 / 10 20 10 30 Tucumcari....................... 94 64 95 63 / 5 10 5 30 Clovis.......................... 92 66 95 66 / 5 5 0 20 Portales........................ 93 65 95 67 / 5 5 0 20 Fort Sumner..................... 94 66 96 66 / 5 10 5 20 Roswell......................... 96 70 100 71 / 5 5 5 5 Picacho......................... 90 63 92 64 / 10 5 10 10 Elk............................. 85 61 88 61 / 20 10 20 10 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....16 AVIATION...16