Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 240218 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
818 PM MDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED 1ST PERIOD FORECAST TO TRIM BACK POPS BASED ON LATEST
RADAR DATA SHOWING A QUICK DIURNAL DOWNTURN. ALSO ADDED FOG TO THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS LATE
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. CLEARING SKIES...WET GROUNDS...
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOWEST PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
AND SOME DRYING ALOFT SETTING THE STAGE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. FOG
MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST AND MAY REQUIRE A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY BY MORNING.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...555 PM MDT TUE SEP 23 2014...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE QUICKLY FADING EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH A LOWERING SUN ANGLE. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD FULLY
DIMINISH AFTER DARK...HOWEVER AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN
NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF NEW MEXICO COULD KEEP SOME CELLS GOING
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. THE OTHER AVIATION WEATHER CONCERN WILL
BE LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG IN CENTRAL TO EASTERN PARTS OF THE
STATE. THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THESE LOW STRATUS CLOUDS WILL BE
QUITE SMALL...MOSTLY ALONG THE EASTERN FACES OF THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS AND MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY FROM
KROW TO KSXU. SOME LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WILL
BE POSSIBLE. THIS WILL BURN OFF BY NOON WEDNESDAY...WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...304 PM MDT TUE SEP 23 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL BUILD OVER NM THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS
WILL REDUCE...BUT NOT ELIMINATE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FAVORED
AREAS THIS EVENING WILL BE OUR SOUTHERN TIER ZONES. ON WEDNESDAY IT
WILL BE ACROSS THE EAST...THEN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AREAS ON
THURSDAY. A DEEP LOW PRESSURE AREA OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
MOVE INLAND FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE OPENING UP AND PASSING TO
OUR NORTH LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THIS TRACK WILL BRING LESS RAIN TO
OUR CWA THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A MOSTLY
DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NOTICEABLY LESS CONVECTION TODAY COMPARED TO THE LAST WEEK OR MORE.
MAIN FOCUS WILL BE THE FR SOUTHERN TIER ZONES THROUGH THIS EVENING.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS. FOG
ISSUES SHOULD BE LESS THAN EARLY THIS MORNING...CONFINED MAINLY TO
THE CLINES CORNERS TO RUIDOSO AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL BUILD OVER NM WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MORE UNSTABLE THAN TODAY...WITH AN
INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND STORMS THE RESULT. THIS SHOULD BE MOST
NOTICEABLE IN THE EAST WEDNESDAY...THEN THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN ON THURSDAY.

THE UPPER HIGH WILL GET SQUEEZED BY THE DEEP TROUGH OFF THE WEST
COAST AND LOWER PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY
AND OVER TX. THE NARROW RIDGE WILL HOLD ITS GROUND THROUGH MOST OF
THE WEEKEND BEFORE EVENTUALLY GETTING SHOVED TO THE EAST AS THE
WEST COAST STORM MOVES INLAND. HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE WESTERN STORM TAKES A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK
THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAVE SHOWN. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR CWA FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A MODERATE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL SET UP FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FEW HIGH TERRAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH WETTING RAIN
WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE A NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST STORM MOTION. SOME PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. WIND
GUSTS RANGING 25 TO 35 MPH WILL IMPACT THE NORTHEAST PLAINS THE
REST OF THE THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL BUT WILL TAPER OFF AFTER
SUNSET. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AREAWIDE FOLLOWING
HIGH RH VALUES EAST AND SOUTH...WHERE RH RECOVERIES WILL BE GOOD
TO EXCELLENT. THE NORTHWEST WILL EXPERIENCE RH RECOVERIES IN THE
FAIR CATEGORY.

WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY WILL SEE A DOWNTREND IN TEMPERATURES EAST AND
SOUTH AS WETTING RAIN POTENTIAL INCREASES AS GULF MOISTURE FLOWS
INTO THE STATE FROM THE SOUTHEAST. WETTING RAIN WILL BE LIMITED
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BECAUSE OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA. VENTILATION RATES WILL BE POOR TO FAIR FOR MUCH OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL SEE VENTILATION RATES IMPROVING AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE STATE FROM THE WEST. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE AREAWIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON...IN ADDITION TO A SHIFT IN
WETTING RAIN POTENTIAL FROM THE EAST TO WESTERN ZONES STARTING
FRIDAY TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

BY MONDAY...EXTENDED MODELS INDICATE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE STATE KEEPING WETTING RAIN POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
NORTH TO NORTHWESTERN TIER OF THE STATE...THOUGH THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES BY MIDWEEK...GFS WANTS TO KEEP UPPER LEVEL FLOW ZONAL
WHILE ECMWF IS BULLISH ON BRINGING ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO
THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME POTENTIAL WETTING PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
SPOTTY MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT SOME AREAS NEAR THE CENTRAL
MTN CHAIN TODAY. VFR CIGS EXPECTED WEST OF CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. A
FEW AFTERNOON HIGH TERRAIN SH AND TS ARE EXPECTED WITH MOVEMENT TO
THE EAST...POSSIBLY IMPACTING KROW. CIGS WILL LOWER ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN AREAS TONIGHT...WITH BEST CONFIDENCE OF VCFG AND BR
DEVELOPING JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTNS WITH LESS CONFIDENCE AT
KTCC AND KROW. THE NORTHEAST PLAINS INCLUDING KLVS AND KTCC WILL
EXPERIENCE 20 TO 30 KT WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO LEE SIDE
TROUGHING.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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