Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 230541 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1141 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...
STRENGTHENING WINDS ALOFT AND A PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH SHOULD KEEP
SFC WINDS GUSTY AT TIMES OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTS AND E
OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN. SW WINDS WILL THEN BCM STRONG AREAWIDE
WED MORNING AS WINDS ALOFT AND THE SFC LEE TROUGH CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING N OF NM. A
PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS FM THE W WED SHIFTING WINDS OUT OF
THE W FM THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN WESTWARD. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
WILL THEN SHIFT WINDS OUT OF THE N ACROSS THE PLAINS WED NIGHT.
LOOK FOR A RETURN OF VIRGA TO CENTRAL AND N CENTRAL AREAS WED
AFTN...AND POSSIBLY SOME -TSRA ACROSS THE NE PLAINS WED EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...259 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
A WINDY MIDWEEK WITH INCREASED FIRE DANGER WILL TAPER OFF AS THE
WORK WEEK WRAPS UP. A PACIFIC STORM WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW MEXICO
OVER THE WEEKEND...RETURNING GUSTY WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS TO
ALL BUT THE MORE SHOWERY COLORADO BORDER COUNTRY TO THE NORTH. A
COOL ENDING TO THE WEEKEND WILL SET UP A COOL AND BREEZY START TO
THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...RIDGE FROM NORTHERN MEXICO ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO
TO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES BOUND FOR TEXAS...AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS
RAPIDLY OVER NORTHERN UTAH IN THE SWEET SPOT OF SIGNIFICANT WEST
COAST TROUGH LYING ALONG THE SAN JOAQUIN AND SACRAMENTO RIVER
VALLEYS IN CALIFORNIA. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE AND SUNNY SKIES
DOMINATE THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE FIRST OF THE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO
RANGE...WITH INCREASING COVERAGE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST SLOPES
AND ADJACENT EASTERN PLAINS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN INTO
THIS EVENING.

MODELS...IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH DIFFERENCES
EMERGING IN DETAILS OF OTHERWISE COHERENT UPSTREAM PATTERN
EVOLUTION FROM MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD AS AN OTHERWISE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN STALLS TO A CRAWL FOR NEXT WORK WEEK. HAPPY START MOVES
WEST COAST TROUGH TO THE FOUR CORNERS BY LATE TONIGHT AND SWEEPS
THE TROUGH THROUGH NEW MEXICO INTO NORTH TEXAS BY EARLY THURSDAY.
UPSTREAM RIDGE WILL WALTZ EASTWARD OVER NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE
DAY ON THURSDAY...AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES ON FRIDAY.
WINDS OVERHEAD WILL START BACKING TO SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AS
AMPLIFYING WEST COAST TROUGH SLAMS INTO THE L.A. BASIN AND SAN
DIEGO AREA AND MOVES ACROSS ARIZONA TO WESTERN NEW MEXICO BY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. AS THE TROUGH ASPECT FLOPS NEGATIVE IN THE FACE
OF UNDERCUTTING SHEARING FLOW...FULL NORTHWEST JET FORCE WILL SET
UP FROM THE NORTHERN PACIFIC DIRECTLY INTO NEW MEXICO ON
SUNDAY...WITH BLUSTERY NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY.
DIFFERENCES EMERGING MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD...AS EUROPEAN ECMWF
SOLUTION NOW DEEPENS CLOSED LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSOURI
VALLEY...AND IT IS NOW DOMESTIC GFS THAT KEEPS THINGS AN OPEN WAVE
HEADING INTO THE HEART OF THE WORK WEEK. NEW MEXICO WILL ENJOY A
BLUSTERY NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH BOTH
SOLUTIONS...BUT AN EARLIER CLOSED LOW PER ECMWF WILL BRING GREATER
CHANCE FOR SHORTWAVE SPOKES SPINNING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE
THAN THE MORE OPEN WAVE GFS SOLUTION. BOTH SOLUTIONS LIKE A LATE
WEEK CLOSED LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MIDWEST...AS RIDGE
BUILDING FROM THE TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC ACROSS ARIZONA TO THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL DRIFT EAST TOWARD NEW MEXICO BY THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK.

OVERNIGHT...ISOLATED SHOWER COVERAGE EAST AND CENTRAL OVERNIGHT
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WETTING RAINS...AND SOME OF THE SHOWERS
CHANGING OVER TO SNOW OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTO AND TUSAS/SAN JUAN
SUMMITS WITH MODEST ACCUMULATION. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES RUNNING
VERY MILD FOR LATE APRIL. OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY OVER
THE NORTHEAST.

FOR WEDNESDAY...WEST COAST TROUGH MOVING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING...AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...AND
COLDER AIR PLUNGES INTO THE STATE FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN NEAR LATE APRIL NORMALS IN THE WEST...AND 6 TO 12 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE EAST. GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL
CRANK UP EARLY WITH STRONGEST WINDS EAST AND SOUTH. WINDS AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL SET UP CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. TEXAS PANHANDLE SURFACE LOW AND TROUGH
DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL HELP SET OFF SOME STATE LINE THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS...BUT THINKING MOST OF THESE WILL STAY ON
THE TEXAS SIDE OF THE LINE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR THURSDAY...TROUGH WILL SHEAR EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
STATES AS DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL. AFTERNOON
SOUTHWEST BREEZES WILL KICK UP ALONG THE I 25 CORRIDOR ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS WITH SOME LOCALIZED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS TO KEEP AN EYE ON. OTHERWISE...SUNNY AND DRY.

FOR FRIDAY...FLOW ALOFT BACKING SOUTHWESTERLY IN ADVANCE OF NEXT
HIGH AMPLITUDE PACIFIC TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CALIFORNIA
COASTLINE. SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER THE NORTHERN END OF THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE...ALONG WITH A COMPANION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH ALOFT OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA. WARMING TEMPERATURES UNDER THE
LAST OF THE RIDGE WILL BOOST DAYTIME HIGHS 3 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE WEST...AND 8 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE EAST.
WIDESPREAD SOUTHWEST BREEZINESS FRIDAY AFTERNOON UNDER INCREASING
FLOW ALOFT.

OUTLOOK...WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY...AMPLIFYING PACIFIC TROUGH WILL
FLOP NEGATIVE AND SLAM INTO THE FOUR CORNERS SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH INITIAL SHOT OF ENERGY EJECTING RAPIDLY INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES LATE SATURDAY. TURBULENT ZONAL FLOW WILL
REMAIN OVER THE STATE FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...BEFORE NEXT SHOT OF ENERGY TURNS FLOW BRISK NORTHWEST
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. WINDS ALREADY
WRITTEN WELL INTO ADVISORY RANGE PRETTY MUCH STATEWIDE ON
SATURDAY...WITH STRONGEST WINDS FOCUSED OVER AND EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE ON SUNDAY...WITH
SOMEWHAT REDUCED BREEZES OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. NORTHWEST
BREEZES WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN CONTINENTAL DIVIDE ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON. TURNING SHARPLY COOLER...WITH TEMPERATURES
DIVING BACK BELOW LATE APRIL NORMALS ON SUNDAY...AND WIND UP 6 TO
12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY. SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST SATURDAY
WILL SMEAR EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT SUNDAY NIGHT...AND EXPANDING SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. COLDER AIR PACKED IN WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW LEVELS DOWN OVER THE NORTHERN TIER...AND
EXPAND NIGHTTIME SNOW COVERAGE BEYOND THE SUMMITS TO THE UPPER
SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY MODEST...LOCALLY HEAVIEST
NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER.

SHY

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
RETURN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGHLANDS...THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU...AND
THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. WILL CONTINUE RED FLAG WARNING TILL
8PM WHEN WINDS AND TEMPS DECREASE. DRY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN
NM AND WETTER STORMS ACROSS THE NORTH WILL PETER OUT AFTER SUNSET.
OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES WILL BE FAIR ACROSS THE WEST...BUT FAIR TO
GOOD ACROSS THE EAST DUE TO MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY FLOW.
BUMPED UP WINDS WEDNESDAY AS LATEST GUIDANCE CAME IN STRONGER. NEAR
TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...THE STRONGER WINDS...AND LOWER RH VALUES
WILL CREATE MORE WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERS
OVER THE STATE. ZONES 101 AND 102 REMAIN BORDERLINE DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF SLIGHTLY WEAKER WINDS...RH VALUES IN THE MID
TEENS...AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. BUT  WILL NOT
CANCEL WARNING AT THIS TIME AS THESE VARIABLES ARE STILL SO CLOSE TO
NECESSARY THRESHOLDS.

THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL EXIT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PROVIDE A BRIEF
BREAK FROM THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THURSDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...BRINGING BRIEF BUT STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND A
SLIGHT BUMP IN MOISTURE. DESPITE THIS MOISTURE...OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES WILL BE FAIR TO POOR ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AND WILL
TREND DOWN THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
THURSDAY AS VENT RATES REMAIN EXCELLENT. WINDS WILL BE WEAKER
AREA WIDE...BUT REMAIN BREEZY ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR NEAR LAS VEGAS.
A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP...BUT AREAL
COVERAGE WITH MARGINAL CONDITIONS PRECLUDE ANY FIRE WEATHER WATCH.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH NM FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MODELS STILL VARY FOR THIS PERIOD ON TIMING AND HOW DEEP
THIS TROUGH DEVELOPS.  HOWEVER...CURRENT THINKING IS THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING ANOTHER PROLONGED PERIOD OF POTENTIALLY CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. TEMPS WILL WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FRIDAY AS
RH VALUES REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS. AS WINDS
INCREASE TO NEAR THRESHOLD LEVELS ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS AND
WESTERN HIGHLANDS FRIDAY...AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
MAY DEVELOP. WINDS LOOK TO BE STRONGER ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NM SATURDAY THAN WHAT IS FORECASTED FOR WEDNESDAY...AND COMBINED
WITH LOW RH VALUES...WILL CREATE POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM. WINDS WILL
REMAIN STRONG INTO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MTS...WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. TEMPERATURES MAY BE ONLY LIMITING
FACTOR DURING THE WEEKEND...AS THEY ARE EXPECTED TO TREND DOWN
ACROSS THE WEST SATURDAY AND AREA WIDE SUNDAY.

24

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ103>109.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM MDT WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ101-102.

&&

$$







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