Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 020017
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
817 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 816 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

BUBBLY CU HAS DIMINISHED QUICKLY OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. WEAK
FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIP EAST ACROSS CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN...BUT
ALL PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT HAS PUSHED UP INTO ONTARIO. SO...IT
APPEARS AT LEAST...THAT ANY SHOWER/TSTM CHANCES ARE MINIMAL AT
THIS JUNCTURE. HAVE THUS REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST FOR THE BALANCE
OF THE EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

WARM AND VERY HUMID OUT THERE THIS AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS SPIKED
INTO THE LOWER 70S IN MOST LOCALES AT MIDDAY...BUT HAVE MIXING OUT
A TOUCH HERE AT MID-AFTERNOON. TEMPS ARE IN THE 80S...SOME 70S IN
MACKINAC AND SE CHIPPEWA COS. CU FIELD IS UNIMPRESSIVE ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER/EASTERN UPPER MI. MORE VIGOROUS CU IS SEEN IN
EASTERN WI AND THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MI...WHERE DEW POINTS ARE IN
THE LOW AND EVEN MID 70S IN SPOTS. HOWEVER...SHRA/TSRA ARE NOT YET
EVIDENT...OUTSIDE OF SOME WEAKENING SHRA NEAR THE KEWEENAW. THESE
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY
CROSSING WESTERN/CENTRAL SUPERIOR.

THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA TO INCREASE IN THE VICINITY
OF S CENTRAL SUPERIOR BY EARLY EVENING...AS THE INCOMING BOUNDARY
INTERCEPTS THE INSTABILITY PLUME (MLCAPES TO 2K J/KG) POKING INTO
CENTRAL UPPER MI. HI-RES SHORT TERM MODELS ARE OF MIXED OPINIONS
AS TO WHETHER/HOW THIS WILL PLAY OUT. NAM/NSSL-WRF FAVOR BRINGING
CONVECTION INTO EASTERN UPPER MI THIS EVENING. BUT MOST OF THESE
ARE ALREADY BUBBLING OF DEEP CONVECTION NOW...WHICH IS NOT
HAPPENING. SPC HRRR OFFERS PERHAPS THE MOST REALISTIC SOLUTION...
GENERATING CONVECTION NORTH OF MQT AS THE UNSTABLE PLUME LIFTS
OVER THE SUPERIOR COLD DOME...THEN LARGELY KEEPING IT OVER THE BIG
LAKE AS IT MOVES EAST. WAS GIVING SERIOUS THOUGHT EARLIER TO
BOOSTING POPS...BUT LOOKING AT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND MODEL PROGS
HAVE DECIDED THAT CAN/T FAVOR ANYTHING MORE THAN A 20 POP. WILL
MAINTAIN THAT SLIGHT CHANCE IN WESTERN/CENTRAL CHIP/MACK COUNTIES
THRU THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE...ANOTHER NIGHT WITH AREAS OF FOG. PERHAPS NOT QUITE AS
MUCH AS THIS MORNING (WHICH WAS LESS THAN THE MORNING
BEFORE)...THANKS TO STRONG MIXING AND RESULTING DECREASE IN DEW
POINTS THIS AFTERNOON. STILL AN UNSEASONABLY WARM/STICKY
NIGHT...WITH MINS IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70F.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY....THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH
HAS BEEN IN PLACE ACROSS THE ERN ONE THIRD OF THE COUNTRY...WILL
REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. AT
UPPER LVLS...A STRONG 500MB RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE GULF STATES AND
OHIO VALLEY...WILL CONTINUE TO NUDGE INTO THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. MID LVL TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LVL
PATTERN WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL ACRS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...REMAINING AROUND 16C/17C. THIS OVERALL SFC AND
UPPER LVL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE SUMMER LIKE WEATHER...WITH WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ACRS NRN MI THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST A PARTLY SUNNY TREND ACROSS THE REGION AS
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MSTR PROGS SHOW LIMITED MSTR THROUGH THE
COLUMN...WITH 850/500MB RH AROUND 40/60 PCT THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD.
HOWEVER ENOUGH LOW LVL MSTR WILL BE PRESENT TO CONTINUE MUGGY CONDS
ACRS NRN MI...WITH SFC DEW PTS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S WHILE MID
LVL DEW PTS REMAIN 12C OR GREATER. WILL CONTINUE WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS NRN MI THOUGH A CHANCE OF PCPN EXIST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY...THE RESULT OF A WEAK RIPPLE IN THE UPPER
FLOW. 850/500MB QVECTORS SHOW SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH CONVERGENCE WITH
APPROACHING 500MB TROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TO GENERATE PCPN
ACRS NRN MI. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING ENOUGH LOW AND MID LVL MSTR
(SFC DW PTS IN THE UPPER 60S) AND INSTABILITY (LI ARND -4C, MU CAPE
BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG, 850/500MB LAPSE RATES INCREASING TO 7
C/KM) TO MENTION THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY IN THE
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN STORY GOING INTO LABOR DAY...WITH
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A COLD
FRONT ARRIVING EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL FLATTEN OUT THE H5 RIDGING AND
RETURN TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO...THOUGH STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE...NORMAL
BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A SMALL CHANCE FOR
SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT AS MENTIONED
BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT...SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE COULD
HOLD THOSE OFF. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE EARLY WEEK COLD FRONT...WHICH IS STILL ALL OVER THE PLACE
AS FAR AS TIMING AND PLACEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 816 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SOLID VFR CONDITIONS OUT THERE FOR THE TIME BEING. BUT A FAIRLY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER (SFC DEWPOINTS UP NEAR 70) WILL LEAD TO FOG ISSUES
LATER ON TONIGHT. THAT SAID...TEMPS ARE STILL UP NEAR 80 IN MANY
LOCATIONS AT IT WILL TAKE A FEW HOURS FOR TEMPS TO FALL ENOUGH TO
START SEEING VSBY REDUCTIONS. SO...HAVE BACKED OFF TIMING OF MVFR
VSBYS BY A FEW HOURS VS PREVIOUS TAF FORECASTS. EVENTUALLY...IFR
VSBYS WILL PROBABLY MATERIALIZE AT SOME OF THE TERMINAL SITES
(PLN/APN/MBL THE MOST LIKELY CANDIDATES).

WEDNESDAY...MORNING FOG WILL BURN OFF BY 14Z. ANOTHER WARM AND
EVEN MORE HUMID DAY IN STORE FOR NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS WILL
LEAD TO AFTERNOON TSTM POSSIBILITIES. MOST LIKELY LOCATION LOOKING
TO BE ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN AND IMPACTING THE APN TERMINAL
SITE. HAVE NOT EXPLICITLY INCLUDED TSTM IN THE FORECAST YET...BUT
PLAN ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE...AROUND HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SE. WINDS
WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE NORTH END OF LAKE MI A LITTLE
BUMPY...IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE...BUT SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA.
AREAS OF MARINE FOG/STRATUS WILL ALSO CONTINUE...THANKS TO THE
HUMID AIR IN PLACE.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ADAM
NEAR TERM...JAZ
SHORT TERM...SWR
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...JAZ


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