Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 012029
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
329 PM EST Wed Mar 1 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will rush through the area this evening bringing
much colder air with showers and isolated thunderstorms. Strong
winds will also accompany the front and continue into Thursday.
Snow flurries and snow showers will arrive later tonight and end
Thursday morning. A coating of snow is possible Friday as a weak
front moves through.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
It`s been difficult to develop any convection this afternoon
with very limited instability and huge amounts of shear.
Convection over southern PA helped to cut off the increase of
low level moisture and our dew points held in the upper 40s and
lower 50s. Still can`t rule out a storm this evening with the
front, but it will be low topped and should be isolated. Bigger
concern is the synoptic winds which will develop in the tight
gradient as the upper low deepens. After collaboration with PHI
and CTP have added all of the NEPA counties in the Advisory
although wind speed should be less. Resisted a warning simply
because the criteria does not seem reachable in the majority of
the inhabited area. A few peaks in the Catskills could see
warning criteria wind.

Very limited lake effect snow showers in the cold air late
tonight with a limited fetch and very strong shear. Also, air is
quite dry behind the front so it will not be well seeded.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Dry air, shear, and unfavorable fetch will bring an end to the
snow showers early Thursday. Winds will still be ripping however
as the low bombs off New England. High pressure builds Thursday
for a cold night and lighter winds, but is followed quickly by
a weak wave and additional snow showers beginning late Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
3 pm update...

On Friday the northwest flow continues as a weak front drops
south. Limited moisture but up to an inch of snow is possible
during the day Friday. Temperatures will be mostly below
freezing. May have a hard time amounting to much on roads with
the warm air now and temps above freezing Thursday afternoon.
Greatest amounts on grassy surfaces. Amounts could of been more
if we had any snow on the ground.

Behind this widespread snow will be cold air advection. 850mb
temps fall to -22C but the low level flow is from 310 degrees.
Lake effect snow showers into Syracuse and the higher terrain
of the upper Susquehanna region Friday night and Saturday. The
lake effect will weaken Saturday afternoon as high pressure
builds in at the surface. Saturday highs only in the 20s.
Saturday night will be dry and cold. Some single digits east and
north to teens elsewhere.

Sunday the start of warmer air as the upper level trough moves
east and ridging and warm air advection starts. Sunday mostly
dry but a weak warm front moves east across upstate NY. Better
chances Sunday night and Monday. High temps around 40 Sunday
rise into the 50s for Monday and Tuesday.

Models closer on strong cold front Tuesday night. GFS still
slower and deeper but Euro trending that way. Cooler and still
unsettled Wednesday. With a progressive front should be able to
handle the rain Tuesday into Tuesday night.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions will continue this afternoon ahead of the
approaching cold front. Occasional MVFR ceilings and visibilities
are expected withe frontal passage later this afternoon and
evening. Behind the front, very strong winds will develop with
gusts over 40 kts possible, along with scattered rain showers
changing to snow showers, and again occasional MVFR ceilings and
visibilities. Exception will be at AVP where VFR conditions
will prevail behind the front. Showers will taper off later
tonight and on Thursday, however gusty winds will continue
through the end of the period.

OUTLOOK...

Friday...Possible restrictions in snow showers.

Saturday...VFR.

Sunday...Restrictions in rain and snow showers.

Monday...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Thursday for
     PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Thursday for
     NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
     Flood Watch from 7 PM EST this evening through Friday morning
     for NYZ009.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...DGM



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