Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 170618
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
218 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS NEAR 50 ON THURSDAY AND WELL INTO
THE 50S ON FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY...THEN DRY WEATHER AGAIN FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1 AM UPDATE...
HIPRES OVR NRN NEW ENGLAND WL BUILD EAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THIS AFTN. THIS WL VEER FLOW ARND TO THE SOUTHEAST TDA AND PRESSURE
GRADIENT WL TIGHTEN BTWN AFOREMENTIONED HIGH AND LOPRES IN THE UPR
MIDWEST. THIS WL BRING INCRSG WINDS TO BTWN 10-15KTS OCNLY GUSTING
DRG THE AFTN.

H8 TEMPS INCRS TO NR -4C AND WITH MIXING TO H8 THIS WUD YIELD MAX
TEMPS ARND THE 50 DEGREE MARK. HWVR FULL SUN, SRLY FLOW AND DRY
DWPTS WL LKLY LEAD TO WARMER TEMPS FOR TDA AND HV GONE CLOSER TO MAV
NUMBERS WITH VLY TEMPS IN THE M50S AND HIGHER TERRAIN STRUGGLING TO
REACH 50F. THESE TEMPS ARE SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED YDA IN THE OH
VLY UNDER THE SAME SFC PATTERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM NY STATE SLOWLY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS WILL PROBABLY
SHOW UP OVER OUR AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON... BUT OTHERWISE THURSDAY
LOOKS LIKE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH TEMPERATURES RECOVERING TO NEAR
OR JUST ABOVE 50 DEGREES IN MOST PLACES. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE
ANOTHER MOSTLY CLEAR COOL NIGHT... BUT SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THAN TONIGHT. THE DRY MODERATING PATTERN CONTINUES ON
FRIDAY WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
SATURDAY... FOLLOWED BY CLEARING AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
12 PM TUE UPDATE...

FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. NO BIG UPPER LEVEL TROFS OR RIDGES SO
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK TO BE
ENOUGH TO CAUSE PROBLEMS THIS PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY SAT
NGT INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT GOES SLOWLY SE THROUGH THE CWA ON
MONDAY. WARM ENOUGH FOR ALMOST ALL RAIN. CHC SHOWERS SUN NGT TO
MON IN NY THEN CHC EVERYWHERE MON NGT AND TUE. QUESTIONS ON HOW
QUICKLY IT WILL CLEAR TUE NGT AND WED IN NW FLOW AHEAD OF HIGH
PRESSURE. NW FLOW NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT LIKE THE LAST
12 HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
06Z THU UPDATE... VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z FRI...WITH JUST
PATCHY HIGH-LVL CLDNS.

ONE OF OUR WEATHER MODELS IS SUGGESTING THAT A LWR CLOUD DECK WILL
DVLP AT KAVP LATE IN THE PD (03-06Z FRI). IF THIS WERE TO
HAPPEN...THEN MVFR CIGS WOULD BE QUITE PSBL.
HOWEVER...ATTM...CONFIDENCE IS NOT NEARLY HIGH ENUF TO INCLUDE
THIS IN THE FCST. THE MOST PROBABLE SCENARIO IS THAT LWR CLDS STAY TO
OUR S...WITH VFR CONTINUING.

LGT WINDS EARLY THIS MRNG...WILL BECOME SE TDY AND THIS
EVE...INCREASING TO 8-12 KT. WINDS MAY BECOME GUSTY AT KITH (INTO
THE 20-25 KT RANGE).

OUTLOOK...

FRI...VFR.

FRI NGT TO SAT...MVFR PSBL IN SHOWERS.

SAT NGT TO SUN...VFR.

SUN NGT TO MON...SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS PSBL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY. DESPITE FAIRLY DRY CONDS
THU AND FRI (MIN RH VALUES GENERALLY 25-35%)...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
UNDER 20 MPH. FUEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE UP AS A RESULT OF THE
SOAKING RAINFALL EARLIER THIS WEEK.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...MLJ/RRM
FIRE WEATHER...






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