Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 061801
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
101 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY AND COLD WEATHER WILL REMAIN INTO TONIGHT.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL PASS THROUGH
THE REGION BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE MINOR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1050 AM UPDATE...

MINOR UPDATE THIS MORNING FOR DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE.
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST MAXES LOOK TO BE IN FINE SHAPE. ALSO DECREASED
THE SKY COVER THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON, AS CIRRUS IS STILL A LONG
WAY OFF.


3 AM UPDATE...

WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES IN CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW HAS WEAKENED TO BECOME LIGHT AND SHIFTED TO THE WEST.
UPSTREAM WINDS HAVE GONE SW. WITH THE ARCTIC AIRMASS MOST OF THE
LES IS JUST FLURRIES WITH NO ACCUMULATION. THE LES WILL WEAKEN THE
REST OF THE MORNING AND DIE AROUND SUNRISE IN THE SYR AND RME
AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL ALSO SQUASH THE
LES. THIS HIGH WILL BE IN CONTROL TODAY AND MOST OF TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES FROM 5 ABOVE TO 10 BELOW WILL REBOUND INTO THE UPPER
TEENS AND LOWER 20S WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGH CLOUDS COME IN
LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL TONIGHT AS MOISTURE COMES IN
ALOFT. THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE SE AS A SFC LOW DROPS SE THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES. WARM FRONTAL MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL MOVE INTO THE
FAR NORTH LATE TONIGHT. MAYBE A SNOW SHOWER IN THE TUG AROUND
SUNRISE.

THE LOW AND SW TRAILING COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH SE ONTARIO AND
NE NY SAT EVE GIVING THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS SAT AFTN AND
EVE IN CENT NY. WITH THE SW LL WINDS THE HIGHEST SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE IN THE NE DUE TO THE UPSLOPE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT THEN THE ADDED LAKE MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT. GIVEN THE
MOISTURE SOURCE AND THE DURATION OF THE EVENT MAX SNOW AMOUNTS SAT
AND SAT NGT WILL ONLY BE 2 TO 4 INCHES IN THE NE QUARTER OF CWA.
AMOUNTS TAPER OFF TO THE SW WITH AN INCH ALONG THE NY PA BORDER TO
NEARLY ZERO IN THE FAR SOUTH.

AHEAD OF THE FRONT SATURDAY TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR
FREEZING THEN STAY UP WITH THE CLOUDS AND MIXING SAT NGT. CAA IS
WEAK WITH THE FRONT AND REMAINS STEADY THROUGH SUN NGT. HIGH TEMPS
SUNDAY EVEN WARMER AND IN 30S DESPITE THE COLD FRONT.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT MULTIPLE WAVES ALOFT AND WEAK SURFACE
FRONTS GO THROUGH KEEPING SOME SNOW SHOWERS GOING MAINLY IN CENT
NY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

XTNDD PD GNRLY FEATURES DRY WX WITH A SLOWLY UPR BLDG RDG OVER
THE FCST AREA. SRN STREAM SYSTEMS ARE FCST TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
AREA IN THE SW FLOW...WHILE NRN STREAM SYSTEMS STAY NORTH WITHIN
THE RETREATING TROF. ONLY DFCLTY IS THE SFC BDRY WHICH FLIRTS WITH
THE FCST AREA AND OCNLY BRINGS A SHALLOW WEDGE OF COLD AIR TO THE
REGION...BUT CONTD DRY WX. LATEST HPC GUID IS COLDER FOR THE
PD...AND THIS REALLY MAKES SENSE WITH THE SHALLOW COLD AIR
LURKING. DID BUMP UP THE TEMPS A BIT TO BETTER COORDINATE WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES...BUT HAVE FOLLOWED THIS DOWNWARD TREND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

VFR THRU THE PD. HIPRES IS NOW IN CNTRL OF THE WX OVER THE FCST
SITES BRINGING CLR SKIES AND LGT WINDS. CLIPPER TYPE WV WILL APRCH
THE AREA LTR SAT AND WILL INCRS THE CLDS...BUT NO CIGS BLO VFR
XPCTD...AND PCPN WILL HOLD OFF UNTI AFT THE TAF PD.

.OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT-WED...GNRL VFR CONDS OTR THAN OCNL RESTRICTIONS IN SCT
-SHSN AS SVRL WEAK WVS PASS THRU...ESP CNY TERMINALS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...DJP/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DGM





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