Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 261038
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
638 AM EDT Tue Sep 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Summerlike high pressure will remain in control of our weather
from now through Wednesday bringing very warm afternoons, and
muggy nights with valley fog. A cold front will push through
the area Wednesday afternoon and evening with a chance of
showers. Much cooler air will follow the front later this week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
340 AM Update...
It will be another day flirting with daily record highs, and
then still quite warm into Wednesday ahead of a cold front which
will advance through late in the day.

Stacked high pressure is still persisting directly over the
region, though it will finally start to weaken today into
tonight. High thin clouds have managed to wrap around the upper
high; meanwhile shallower moisture is starting to encroach
under the surface ridge. Valley fog will still occur early this
morning though not as thick as 24 hours ago, due to the presence
of high clouds. The sun will be filtered at times today, from a
few tufts of cumulus under occasional cirrus. Despite that,
temperatures will once again surge to right around records, and
dewpoints will be in the mid to upper 60s to produce heat
indices topping in upper 80s-lower 90s. It will be another
afternoon in which hydration will be very important for anyone
active outdoors. Daily records are 88/2007 for Scranton (Avoca),
88/1934 for Syracuse, and 84/2007 for Binghamton. Our forecast
currently matches the records for Binghamton and Scranton, while
eclipsing the record in Syracuse by a degree. This will be
followed by another muggy night with valley fog development and
a few high clouds, with lows in the 60s.

Upper high will finally collapse Wednesday, as outer belt of
westerlies shift down into the Great Lakes region, soon to
spread into the Northeast. A cold front will trail from low
pressure centered in Central Quebec. There will be level
convergence yet limited instability from lack of deep moisture,
as well as weak mid level lapse rates. Upper forcing will also
be in Canada; far removed from our portion of the front. 30 knot
westerly flow will exist at 6 km but will be much weaker below
that. Thus the front may be accompanied by a narrow scattered
to broken line of showers and perhaps isolated thunder mid
afternoon-early evening, but little impact overall. Since it
will take until late in the day for the front to get through, we
will still manage highs well into the 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
245 am update... Any residual showers early Wednesday evening
should quickly diminish, as the surface cold front pushes off to
our east, and ridging builds in from the northwest.

However, with a N-NW flow in the lower levels post frontal
passage, and some remaining boundary layer moisture underneath
a developing subsidence inversion, clouds could linger for much
of the night, particularly for CNY.

Thursday, it appears that any early morning clouds will scatter
out, with drying/sinking motion ultimately winning out. Thus,
although this should lead to a fair amount of sunshine, high
temperatures will be noticeably cooler than what we`ve seen
lately, with afternoon readings mainly in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
3 am update... On the large scale, model agreement is fairly
good, thus forecast confidence is high.

A compact short wave/upper low in the northern stream should
influence the region Friday and Friday night, bringing at least
scattered showers to CNY/NEPA. Over the weekend, and right into
early next week, building heights aloft and incoming surface
high pressure, should lead to another stretch of dry weather.

Temperatures will be fairly cool Friday-Saturday, with daytime
highs ranging from the 50s-lower 60s in many areas. Readings are
likely to moderate thereafter, reaching the 60s-lower 70s early
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
12Z Update...
High pressure again allowed fog to valley form early this
morning, but high thin clouds at 20-25 kft agl prevented it from
being as dense as prior nights. KELM will still fluctuate in-
and-out of restrictive fog through 14Z, but only a brief light
mist is figured for KBGM-KRME between 12Z-13Z. After the fog
breaks, KBGM-KRME-KELM will quickly join the remainder of
terminals in widespread VFR with light/variable winds. Sunshine
will be occasionally be filtered by high cirrus 20-25 kft agl
and perhaps a few cumulus 5-6 kft. Valley fog prospects will be
better tonight with fewer high clouds to impede development,
especially KELM where airport mins will be approached, though
towards dawn some MVFR to IFR at KITH-KBGM-KAVP as well.

Outlook...

Wednesday...VFR except a small chance of a showers and isolated
thunder with brief associated restrictions as front passes
through afternoon-evening.

Thursday through Saturday...Mainly VFR, but scattered
showers/minor restrictions possible Friday-Saturday.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...MDP


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