Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 311833
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
133 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING WINTER STORM COULD BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA BY
LATE SUNDAY, WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE. THE STORM WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
130 PM UPDATE...
WARM AIR ADVECTION, OR WHAT THERE IS OF IT AT LEAST, WILL BEGIN A
FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET AHEAD OF APPROACHING CYCLONE. FOR THIS
REASON WE ARE RUNNING A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND.
TEMPERATURES MAY BOTTOM OUT BEFORE 3Z AND THEN SLOWLY RISE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, AS CLOUDS THICKEN.

WEAK TROF DIPPING ACROSS THE FA OVERNIGHT WILL CAUSE FLURRIES AND
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE, SPREADING FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH.

1115 AM UPDATE...
THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED. TODAY`S MAX TEMPERATURES HAVE
BEEN TWEAKED DOWNWARD ANOTHER DEGREE OR SO.

940 AM UPDATE...
THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN VERY COLD ACROSS THE FA, AND WINDS CONTINUE TO
GUST AROUND 20 MPH, ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.

ALSO WITH REGARD TO THE COLD TEMPERATURES...MOST SITES ARE
CURRENTLY RUNNING 3 TO 5 DEGREES BELOW PLAN. WE OPTED TO LOWER
MAXES ACROSS THE BOARD, TRENDING TOWARD THE COLDER MET GUIDANCE.
WE MAY STILL NEED TO LOWER MAXES AN ADDITIONAL DEGREE OR TWO AFTER
ASSESSING TEMPERATURE CHANGES OVER THE NEXT HOUR.


3 AM UPDATE...

LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE CWA. A COLD 330 FLOW HAS
CREATED MULTIPLE BANDS OF LAKE SNOW OFF THE FINGER LAKES.
INTENSITY DECREASED AND LET THE ADVISORY EXPIRE. TODAY THE FLOW
WILL BACK TO WNW. WITH THE WEAKENING WIND AND THE WIND SHIFT LAKE
EFFECT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TODAY AND SHIFT NORTH. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS MOSTLY UNDER AN INCH. TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER FROM
THE SINGLE DIGITS NOW INTO MOSTLY THE TEENS. TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL LITTLE TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS COMING IN AND WINDS SHIFTING TO
SW.

A WEAK SFC TROF WILL COME THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY LIGHT
SNOW AND FLURRIES MOSTLY IN CENTRAL NY. THIS MOISTENING WILL HELP
WITH THE APPROACHING STORM SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...

A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. GOOD DYNAMICS WITH IT DUE TO A SHORT
WAVE... TROF AND COUPLED JET. PLENTY OF MOISTURE WITH DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT. THIS WILL BE LIFTED UP AND NORTH INTO
THE AREA MIDDAY SUNDAY INTO THE SW COUNTIES. BY EVENING IT SHOULD
BE ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. WITH THE STORM TRACKING WEST TO EAST
THERE WILL BE A SNOW GRADIENT ON THE NRN FRINGES WHICH WILL BE IN
THE FAR NORTH. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON GENERAL SCENARIO...
QPF... AND WHERE THE SNOW GRADIENT WILL BE. WPC FORECAST CLOSE TO
OWN WITH A DECENT POTENTIAL OF 7 OR MORE INCHES ACROSS ALL OF NE
PA AND MOST OF CENTRAL NY. FOR THESE REASONS WENT WITH A WINTER
STORM WATCH FOR ENTIRE CWA EXCEPT NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY IN NY.
TIMING SUNDAY AFTN TO MONDAY AFTN. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE LATE
SUN NGT AND MON MORN AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE SOUTH. THE SNOW WILL
PULL OUT MONDAY AFTN BUT LINGER IN NY WHERE A NW FLOW WILL BRING
IN LAKE MOISTURE. SNOW TO WATER RATIOS SHOULD BE HIGH WITH A DEEP
DENDRITE ZONE AND GOOD LIFT. QPF OF HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH WITH
SNOWFALL OF MOSTLY 6 TO 12 INCHES.

MONDAY NIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE AFTER SETTING UP
DURING THE AFTN. WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE DEEP MOISTURE AND MORE
ARCTIC AIR RETURNING LAKE EFFECT WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH IN
INTENSITY. ATTM DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A BIG LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VERY COLD UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN FIXED OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A TROF MOVING OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES WILL STRENGTHEN OVER LAKE ONTARIO ON WEDNESDAY,
SPREADING AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACROSS NY AND PA THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.

THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOKS DRY AND RATHER COLD. BESIDES
THE NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY, MOST OF THE
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE
COLDEST DAY APPEARS TO BE THURSDAY BEHIND THE MID-WEEK CYCLONE.
925MB TEMPS ARE IN THE -17C T0 -20C RANGE ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF.
THIS AIRMASS WILL YIELD MAXIMUMS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW
TEENS. FRIDAY MORNING LOOKS FRIGID, WITH WIDESPREAD -5F TO -15F
TEMPERATURES FORECAST. THE RURAL VALLEYS WILL BE EVEN COLDER.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FINGER LAKE BAND AFFECTING THE KITH TERMINAL IS BEGINNING TO
WEAKEN. A SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK OF 2500 TO 4000 FEET WILL BE
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING.

A WEAK FRONT WILL SET OFF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT, POSSIBLY
CAUSING MVFR CEILINGS AT RME, ITH, AND SYR.

A STRONGER STORM WILL APPROACH NY/PA LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY. THE STORM WILL BRING 1 TO 2 SM VISIBILITIES
TO AVP, BGM, AND ELM PRIOR TO 18Z.

OUTLOOK...


SUN NGT / MON... RESTRICTIONS LIKELY (MVFR/IFR) IN SNOW.

TUE...VFR.

WED...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-
     062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...DJP/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DJP






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