Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 281905
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
305 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...PROVIDING RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE IN SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO BRING A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE FIRST
HALF OF THURSDAY...BEFORE DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER WEATHER SETS
IN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SOLID MODEL AGREEMENT PROVIDES A VERY HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR
THE PERIOD. SFC HIGH IN CONTROL WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...VALLEY FOG WILL DEVELOP CLOSE TO DAWN. LOWS ONLY DROPPING
INTO THE MID TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING HANGS AROUND THROUGH THE EVENING AS AM APPROACHING COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TOWARDS THE REGION.
AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL BOOST TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S
ACROSS THE REGION. SOME INCREASE IN HIGHER CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY
AS THE RIDGE GIVES AWAY TO THE FRONT.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE A WARM AND STICKY NIGHT AS DEW POINTS
CREEP UP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND LOWS ONLY DROP
DOWN TO THE 65 TO 70 RANGE. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE BY THE OVERNIGHT
WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND EVEN A THUNDERSTORM BY MORNING OVER
FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA FROM STEUBEN COUNTY NORTHEAST
THROUGH YATES, SENECA, AND CAYUGA COUNTIES AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY...BREAKING
THE BRIEF HEAT AND HUMIDITY ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY. MODEL
TRENDS HAVE SPED UP THE FRONT A BIT TO ARRIVE ACROSS OUR WESTERN
AREAS EARLY IN THE DAY...FOLLOWED BY A PROGRESSION EASTWARD INTO
THE CATSKILLS/POCONOS BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. SHOULD BE MINIMAL
AREAS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM I-81 WEST...BUT DIURNAL
DESTABILIZATION FURTHER EAST WILL ALLOW FOR BEST CHANCE/COVERAGE
OF STORMS IN EAST CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA. MEANWHILE...RAPID
IMPROVEMENT IS LIKELY IN WEST CENTRAL NY BY MID-AFTERNOON. PWATS
1-2SD ABOVE NORMAL AND UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW DOES INDICATE A
POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAIN AND TRAINING STORM CELLS...WITH A MINOR
FLASH FLOOD THREAT.

FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE A GOOD DAY BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND VARYING AMOUNTS OF SUN AND CLOUD. THEN...LONG
RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THE DEVELOPMENT OF BROAD...AND
ANOMALOUS TROF AGAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST FROM SAT-TUES. THIS IS
LIKELY TO INDICATE COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY
AUGUST WITH PERIODIC STORMINESS AS INDIVIDUAL WAVES TRANSLATE
THROUGH THE FAST POLAR FLOW. CONFIDENCE AND TIMING IN ANY DETAIL
IS LOW AT THIS POINT...SO WILL HAVE NOMINAL SLGHT CHC/CHC POPS AT
TIMES THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINLY COINCIDING WITH DAYTIME HEATING...
BUT THERE ARE HINTS IN THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN OF IMPULSES PASSING
THROUGH AT NIGHT. GENERALLY USED A BROAD SPECTRUM BLEND OF
MOS/MODEL GUIDANCE IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
18Z TUESDAY UPDATE... VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST 29/09Z-10Z WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AT ALL SITES. SOME
AFTN CU WILL FADE AFTER THE LOSS OF HEATING...SOME VALLEY FOG
OVERNIGHT CLOSE TO DAWN...ESPECIALLY AT KELM. LIGHT WINDS AND VFR
CONDITIONS AGAIN TOMORROW.

.OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY...VFR...OTHER THAN POSSIBLE FOG AT KELM EARLY IN THE
MORNING.

THURSDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ABS
NEAR TERM...ABS
SHORT TERM...ABS
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...ABS


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