Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 301926
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
326 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF TONIGHT, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE NORTHEAST. THE TREND WILL BE FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES AND
FAIR SKIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
115 PM UPDATE...
THE FIRST CONVECTIVE CELL HAS BROKEN THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SERN
FA, WHERE SPC MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS A SMALL AREA OF 500 J/KG
MLCAPES. MOST OF THE FA HAS 100-250 J/KG OF ENERGY, SO THE ODDS ON
CONVECTION WILL REMAIN LOW.

RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT, BRINGING
AN END TO ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER NY/PA.

A TROF WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE WYOMING VALLEY AS IT WASHES OUT
MONDAY AFTERNOON, PERHAPS SPURRING AN ISOLATED SHOWER.

1035 AM UPDATE...
MORE BREAKS OF IN THE CLOUDS THAN ANTICIPATED ARE SHOWING UP IN
THE CURRENT SATELLITE DEPICTION. FEEL MODELS ARE OVERDOING THE
MOISTURE, ESPECIALLY WITH THE WAY THE PRECIP IS DRYING UP AND
DYING OUT AS IT INCHES EASTWARD ACROSS NY/PA. WILL CONTINUE THE
FORECAST OF FAIRLY MILD MAX TEMPS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WHILE
CUTTING BACK ON THE CLOUD COVER BY 10 TO 20 PERCENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VERY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH PASSING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE MOVING AWAY... REPLACED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
MEANWHILE ALOFT 500 MB HEIGHTS BUILD TO ABOVE 588 DM. NEXT SHORT
WAVE THEN APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY... HOWEVER THIS
WAVE APPEARS TO WEAKEN AND TRACK SOUTH OF OUR AREA. RESULT OF THIS
PATTERN WILL BE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND JUST SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG WAVE RIDGE REMAINS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUT OUR AREA IN LIGHT NW FLOW ALOFT WHICH
WILL LEAVE US VULNERABLE FOR THE CHC OF A WEAK BACK-DOOR COLD
FRONT PASSAGE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER
MID- LEVELS WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS OVER 588 DM AND
POPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20 PERCENT RANGE BY DAY AND 10
PERCENT OR LESS AT NIGHT. OTHERWISE JUST A VERY STAGNANT WEATHER
PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING WELL ABOVE
NORMAL. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S AND LOWS FROM THE MID 50S
TO LOWER 60S. ECMWF SHOWS SOME FALLING HEIGHTS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY... HOWEVER NO AGREEMENT FROM THE GFS AND
BOTTOM LINE IS THAT NO SIGNFICANT SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT
OUR AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THIS NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FOG TO FORM AT KELM MONDAY MORNING.

LIGHT WINDS WILL TURN WESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10 KNOTS LATE
MONDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
GENERALLY VFR, WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO VALLEY FOG
EACH MORNING, WITH THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...MSE/RRM
LONG TERM...PCF/TAC
AVIATION...DJP


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