Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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041
FXUS61 KBGM 242251
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
651 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving low pressure system will continue to bring
showers and storms scattered across the region through tonight.
The system will start to move away with light rain tapering off
Tuesday afternoon. High pressure will finally bring mainly dry
weather for Wednesday before the next round of showers and
storms arrive Thursday and Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
400 pm update...
Main concerns in the near term remain focused around the continuing
thunderstorms tracking from the southern tier of NY into northeast
PA this evening, the persistent light rain showers mixed with low
clouds and fog tonight/Tuesday morning, and a cool wet day expected
on Tuesday.

The threat for flooding will continue early this evening along
the NY/PA border between Sayre and Binghamton due to heavy rain
from yesterday and this afternoon, but conditions should improve
through the night as rain comes to an end. Therefore, the Flash
Flood Watch will continue into the evening.

Currently, an upper low is situated over sern Ontario moving into
srn Quebec and an associated surface inverted trough is aligned from
nrn NY into the mid-Atlantic region. The upper low is expected to
shift to the east tonight, but an extension of the upper trough will
hold back across NY along with the surface trough tonight and into
tomorrow. This forcing, combined with weak instability and deep
moisture will allow the convection to persist into this evening.
However, the overall trend will be an e/sewd movement of the storms
and a gradual decrease in coverage and intensity. An area of cold
temps aloft...500mb temp -11C and 850mb temps +8C...and sufficient
deep moisture will allow for favorable convective conditions across
the region tonight.

Towards the morning hours, will likely see the threat for
thunderstorms diminish and return to a benign showery-type pattern
into the morning hours Tuesday. There may be some low clouds and fog
in the morning, but confidence is rather low due to the presence of
the upper trough and the potential for sufficient mixing in the BL.
Heights will rise going into the day Tuesday with showers becoming
light and tapering off in the afternoon. The cool air will remain in
place, along with a likely mid level cloud deck. Highs will top out
in the 70s, but it will likely feel much cooler with dew points in
the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The upper level trough will slide into New England Tuesday
night. A weak surface anticyclone will move over NY and PA, with
the result being mainly fair weather Tuesday night through
Wednesday.

As the high moves into New England late Wednesday, southerly
flow is forecast to increase into NY. With this in mind, we
cannot rule out a slight chance for an isolated afternoon
thunderstorm.

A low pressure system moving into the Ohio Valley will spread
showers and thunderstorms back into NY and PA Thursday and
Thursday night. PWATs of 1.50 to 1.75 are progged to push across
Lake Erie and up the lake plain.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Another stormy period is forecast for Friday, as a sharp upper-
level trough shoots through NY with thunderstorms and, almost
certainly, more hydrological concerns.

The good news is the trough moves rather quickly, and heights
build across the region for Saturday through Monday. The result
should be a fair/dry period, which the entire forecast area
could really use right now.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Showers and thunderstorms are beginning to decrease in coverage
and intensity. High relative humidities through a thick
atmospheric layer will generate a mix of MVFR and IFR ceilings
overnight, especially between 7z and 13z. MVFR ceilings will
hold through much of Tuesday.

Winds will be light through the next 24 hours.

Outlook...

Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

Thursday & Friday...Chance of showers-storms with associated restrictions.

Saturday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for PAZ038-039.
NY...Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ055-056.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJT
NEAR TERM...BJT
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DJP



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