Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBGM 281052
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
652 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BRINGING THE
CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT
AND CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL START ON
SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630 PM EDT UPDATE...
SHOWERS ARE DISSIPATING ACROSS THE REGION AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE. HAVE DECREASED POPS THIS MORNING TO TO CAPTURE TREND ON
THE RADAR. SHOWERS STILL MAY DEVELOP EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE
FRONT. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE READ THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
DISCUSSION BELOW.

PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...
330 AM EDT UPDATE...
SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO PUSH INTO THE STEUBEN COUNTY THIS
MORNING. THESE SHOWERS ARE BEING GENERATED THIS MORNING BY A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THESE SHOWERS ARE MOVING INTO A STABLE
ATMOSPHERE AND EXPECT SHOWERS TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE INTO CENTRAL
NY. THE MENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO PUSH A WEAK COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FRONT MAY CREATE A SFC BOUNDARY
CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON.... MAINLY IN SULLIVAN AND PIKE COUNTY. THE TROUGH AXIS
WILL BE OVER THE FAR EASTERN EDGES OF THE CWA AROUND 18Z AND THUS
THE CHANCE OF PRECIP DECREASES QUICKLY AFTER 18Z. SUBSIDENCE AND
VERY DRY AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION AT THE SFC AND ALOFT THIS
EVENING AND SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT.

MAXIMUM TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S OVER THE FINGER
LAKES REGION INCREASING SOUTHWARD TO THE LOW TO MID 80S OVER
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
330 AM EDT UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL START TO DRIFT EAST DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY. EXPECT FRIDAY TO REMAIN DRY. EXPECT THE SFC RIDGE
TO BE EAST OF THE AREA BY 18Z...THUS MOISTURE WILL BE ALLOWED TO
RETURN TO REGION. THIS WILL RESULT CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INCREASE
AROUND MID AFTERNOON FROM THE SW TO NE.

LARGE DISCREPANCY STILL EXISTS BETWEEN NAM/GFS/ECMWF ON THE ONSET
AND TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM AND WHEN PRECIP WILL START OVER THE
REGION ON SAT. THE GFS IS STILL THE QUICKEST... STARTING PRECIP LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT... FOLLOWED BY THE NAM THEN THE ECMWF. DECIDED TO
FOLLOW THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND KEEP MENTION OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS ON
SAT FOR CONSISTENCY. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

A STRONGER COLD FRONT THAN TODAY IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH OVER THE
REGION LATE SAT NIGHT BRINGING COOLER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION.
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THIS FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD WILL DETERMINE
MIN TEMPS ON SUNDAY MORNING.

MAX TEMPS DURING THE TIME FRAME WILL BE IN THE UPPR 70S TO LOW
80S... AND MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 60S SAT AND MAY POSSIBLY FALL
INTO THE UPPR 40S OVER THE FINGER LAKE REGION SUN MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
430 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO EXTENDED FORECAST
JUST POPULATED WITH LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. SUNDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK
RATHER COOL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S ALONG WITH
POST FRONTAL SHOWERS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE
COOL SIDE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AS SFC HIGH
PRES RESIDES OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TOWARD
MID WEEK CONDITIONS WILL MODERATE AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE AND
SFC HIGH PRES OFF THE EAST COAST BRINGS A MODERATING SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALONG WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THIS TAF PERIOD AS A
MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE NYS TAFS THIS MORNING. CIGS
AROUND 4K FT WILL PERSIST UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON WHEN SKIES SCATTER OUT. VALLEY FOG IS POSIBLE OVERNIGHT
AS SKIES CLEAR EARLY THIS EVENING. AT KELM WENT POSSIBLE IFR
BETWEEN 09Z-12Z. AT KAVP, MVFR CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST UNTIL 13Z
THEN CIGS WILL BE AROUND 5K FT WITH FROPA DURING THE EARLY/MID
AFTERNOON WHEN SKIES WILL SCATTER OUT. CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE WITH
THE FRONT BUT COVERAGE NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAF.

S/SW AROUND 5 KNOTS TOWARD DAYBREAK THEN NW BY MID/LATE MORNING
AT 10-12 KNOTS. AT KAVP WIND SHIFT DURING THE EARLY/MID
AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...

.FRI-FRI NGT...VFR.
.SAT-SAT NGT...VFR. SCT-NMRS TSRA WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR.
.SUN-MON...VFR. CHC SHOWERS WITH MVFR...MAINLY SOUTHERN HALF.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM


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