Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 120028
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
728 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK
WITH FLURRIES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA
INTO TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF MOSTLY DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FROM
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON... THEN SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT LATER FRIDAY. THE COLDEST AIR
OF THE SEASON WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH BITTERLY
COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS. THE ENTIRE AREA WILL BE BELOW
ZERO BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
715 PM UPDATE...LAKE EFFECT HAS BEEN WEAKENING AND WE ONLY EXPECT
ANOTHER COUPLE INCHES AT MOST ACROSS ONEIDA/MADISON/ONONDAGA
COUNTIES TONIGHT SO DROPPED THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING. SNOW
AMOUNTS WERE ALSO LOWERED SLIGHTLY IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST.
FINALLY, ADJUSTED TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES FOR TONIGHT BASED ON
LATEST TRENDS.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...BROKEN BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW ORIENTED
FROM AROUND 290 DEGREES CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY SHIFT TO AROUND 300
DEGREES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS EVENING WHICH SHOULD FAVOR
MOVING THE SNOW BANDS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. BASED ON THIS WE BELIEVE THAT THERE IS STILL A GOOD CHANCE
THAT SOME MODERATE SNOW WILL REACH THE CITY OF SYRACUSE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. FACTORS WORKING AGAINST REALLY HEAVY
SNOW THIS EVENING INCLUDE THAT THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH CONTINUES
TO BE CONFINED TO THE LAYER BELOW 900 MB DUE TO THE VERY COLD AIR
MASS IN PLACE. IN ADDITION THE GRADUAL SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE
BANDS SHOULD KEEP HEAVY SNOW FROM PERSISTING AT ANY ONE LOCATION
FOR LONG. BASED ON THIS WE ARE EXPECTING SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE WARNING AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH MOST PLACES
GETTING AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW. THIS SNOW WILL
COMBINE WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING TO CREATE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS. MEANWHILE FARTHER SOUTH BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS COULD
STILL PRODUCE AN INCH OR TWO OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL THROUGH THIS
EVENING FROM CAYUGA AND SENECA COUNTIES DOWN THROUGH CORTLAND AND
OTSEGO COUNTIES. WE WILL ALLOW THE ADVISORY TO CONTINUE IN THIS
AREA FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE ENDING THIS EVENING. THINGS
SHOULD QUIET DOWN OVERNIGHT AS THE FLOW SHIFTS TO MORE WESTERLY
AND DRYER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST... WITH WEAKENING BANDS
SHIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE EAST SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY WILL START OUT QUIET WITH MAINLY DRY COLD CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE AREA. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY SPREAD INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK AND
NORTHERN PA LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW SQUALLS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT FRIDAY EVENING WITH MANY
PLACES PICKING UP AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE FORECAST TO EXCEED 8.0 DEGREES C PER KM FRIDAY EVENING OVER
CENTRAL NY AND OVER 7.0 DEGREES C PER KM OVER NORTHEAST PA WITH
SMALL AMOUNTS OF CAPE. THIS WILL ADD TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF
THE SNOW SHOWERS AS THEY CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE.

THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THIS FRONT LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT
LOWERING 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO BETWEEN -30 AND -32 OVER CENTRAL
NY AND NORTHEAST PA BY LATE SATURDAY WHICH IS ABOUT AS COLD AS WE
EVER SEE IN THIS AREA. BASED ON THIS WE ARE EXPECTING TEMPERATURES
TO FALL TO NEAR ZERO IN MOST PLACES SATURDAY MORNING... HOLDING
NEAR ZERO THROUGH THE DAY THEN FALLING BELOW ZERO BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COMBINED WITH 10 TO 20 MPH
WINDS CREATING DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS. WE ARE GOING WITH A WIND
CHILL WATCH FOR CENTRAL NY FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...
AND A WATCH FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
NORTHEAST PA WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COLD... BUT
STILL DANGEROUSLY COLD ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. NNW FLOW WILL
BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND POSSIBLY
ENHANCED BY THE FINGER LAKES SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER
AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BE HEAVY AS DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH POTENTIAL
WILL BE LOW DUE TO THE ENTIRE SOUNDING BEING BELOW -20 C.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
330 PM THU UPDATE...
WE START OFF WELL SUBZERO DAWN SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS THAN SATURDAY...YET STILL ENOUGH TO YIELD
DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY
BECAUSE IT WILL TAKE UNTIL LATE SUNDAY- SUNDAY NIGHT FOR HIGH
PRESSURE TO ACTUALLY BUILD IN. LAKE MOISTURE STILL TRAPPED UNDER
THE DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL ALSO CONTINUE SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES FROM STEUBEN COUNTY THROUGH THE FINGER
LAKES TO SYRACUSE REGIONS...BUT WITH ONLY LIGHT DRY FLUFFY
ACCUMULATIONS. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND
12 DEGREES.

BUSY PATTERN COMES TOGETHER FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SHARP
TROUGH FROM THIS WEEKEND LIFTS OUT...ONLY FOR MEAN UPPER TROUGH
POSITIONING TO RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY WEST AS A NEW ONE DIGS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. PHASING OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS LOOKS
LIKELY TO PRODUCE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOMEWHERE IN THE
SOUTHEAST...WHICH THEN DEEPENS WHILE HEADING NORTHEAST. WITH
RETROGRADED TROUGH...WARMER AIR WILL BE ABLE TO ADVECT IN AS THE
SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS...AND WHILE THE
MODELS AGREE ON EXISTENCE OF THE SYSTEM...THEY HAVE BEEN
INCONSISTENT ON ITS TRACK AND AMOUNT OF WARM AIR RUN-TO-RUN AND
MODEL-TO-MODEL. ONE THING THAT APPEARS MISSING IS HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE NORTHEAST FOR ANCHORING THE COLD AIR...SO THE WARMER TREND IN
LATEST GUIDANCE MAKES SENSE. ALL WE CAN SAY AT THIS POINT IS A
FAIR AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION IS LOOKING PROBABLE ESPECIALLY MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT PRECIPITATION TYPE IS VERY
QUESTIONABLE. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PERSISTENT LAKE EFFECT BANDS WITH IFR TO BELOW ALT MINS FOR VSBYS
WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT KSYR THIS EVENING. BLSN WILL ALSO HAMPER
VIS BEFORE THE WNW WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING...AND BACK
TO THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH...WEAKER SNOW
BANDS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...LEAVING MOST
TERMINALS WITH BKN MVFR CIGS AND GENERALLY VFR VSBYS IN LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES. VFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY.

.OUTLOOK...

FRI NGT...A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT BLASTS THROUGH WITH A PROBABLE
LOW VIS SNOW SQUALL ROUGHLY 01Z SAT NW TO 07Z SAT SE.

SAT...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN AND GUSTY WINDS/BLSN.

SAT NGT-SUN...LAKE EFFECT SCT -SHSN AND ASSOCIATED BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS KSYR AND PERHAPS KITH-KELM.

MON-TUE...RESTRICTIONS IN POTENTIAL SNOW AND/OR HVY RAIN AS AN
EAST COAST SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...BEST CHANCE MON NGT-TUE.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-
     055>057.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...MSE/PCF
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...BJT/MDP


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