Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 251656
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1156 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1149 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Fog seems to be lifting as expected. The latest iterations of the
HRRR have had a solid handle on the progression of the current
environment. At this point, the thinking is still that stratus
will begin to lift and move out in the 18z to 20z time frame, with
mid to high clouds moving in from the west. Did decrease high
temperatures slightly across mainly the central part of the state
due to very little, if any, sunshine peeking through this
afternoon. Also tweaked precipitation chances based on current
radar trends in the near term. Otherwise, just blended the latest
observations to the going forecast.

UPDATE Issued at 849 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Latest fog/stratus and surface observations indicate the primary
area of low clouds/fog stretch along and east of a line from
Rolla to Carrington and Harvey, into Bismarck/Mandan and Linton.
Latest high resolution models HRRR/RAP/GLAMP Meld/NAMNEST all
indicate that between 16z and 18Z the fog will lift and dissipate,
with the stratus deck lagging behind but eroding between 18z and 20z.
However, mid/high clouds streaming from southwest to northeast in
western ND will also begin to edge into central ND as well this
afternoon. Thus the mostly cloudy sky is on track. Minor tweak to
pops in the west as the Bowman Radar continues to show a trend
toward higher reflectivities. Cloud ceilings remain high at around
10kft to 12kft, so a lot of this is likely virga; but it is also
moistening up the drier layers below cloud base. Will keep an
isolated mention of rain showers through the morning in portions
of the west to account for this. Rest of the forecast elements in
good shape.

UPDATE Issued at 600 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Have updated to add a small chance of rain showers early this morning
in the northwest based on radar returns approaching that area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 440 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Moisture was streaming in to the forecast area from both sides,
mid and high level from the west ahead of the approaching trough
that will bring precipitation later, and low level from the east
between the surface low over Missouri and surface high over
Ontario.

Low clouds were becoming more extensive and patchy fog had formed
in clear areas of the east.

For today, mostly cloudy in the east to southeast moist flow.
Ahead of the long wave trough crossing the Rockies will be two
short waves. The first, in the northern stream, moves into
Saskatchewan taking the lift associated with it north of the
border. This should deliver clouds at worst. The second, farther
south in the H5 flow, is weaker than earlier anticipated. Surface
convergence along the frontal boundary, and at least weak
lifting, should be enough to trigger showers very late in the day
in the west. The issue tonight becomes how low temperatures fall
before the showers advance east overnight. Thermal profiles are
indicating that the lower levels could be cold enough for ice
pellets (sleet) and some freezing rain in the area east of
Bismarck.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 440 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

The longer term continues with continuity showing unsettled
periods about every other day or so. Precipitation type is rain
during the daytime and possibly a mix at night.

Synoptic scale models continue to show a progressive pattern with
troughing every other day or so in the fast flow. The troughs
continue to dig across the south and push east, keeping north
Dakota on the northern edge of the action. Precipitation is
not expected to be significant, a tenth of an inch or so with each
passing system. Lows 25 to 35 and highs in the 40s and 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1149 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Ifr/mvfr cigs at KBIS/KJMS will lift and improve to vfr by 21z
Saturday. Vfr cigs/vsbys expected elsewhere through most of Saturday
night. The exception thereafter will be at KMOT/KJMS. Mvfr cigs are
forecast at KMOT 11z-14z Sunday; and ifr cigs at KJMS 13z-17z. High
confidence in -shra at KDIK between 05z and 12z Sunday with a vcsh
at KBIS between 7z-13z Sunday.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ZH
SHORT TERM...JPM
LONG TERM...JPM
AVIATION...KS


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