Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 240429

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1129 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

Issued at 1129 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

A cool/moist easterly upslope flow underway north central this
evening. Rolla Municipal airport had clouds based at 700ft agl,
and now is scattering out. Latest National Blend/RAP13/HRRR
initializing well with current trends, which in develops/shifts
the clouds into Minot by 09z/4am CDT, Jamestown by 12z/7am CDT.
Some hints that Dickinson and portions of southwestern ND will
experience some fog and/or stratus as well. Have added some clouds
in southwest based on this expectation. Previous forecast used
the National Blend for sky cover, and will continue as it is
trending well with current observations.

UPDATE Issued at 946 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

Main change was to increase cloud cover late tonight through much
of the morning from north central through southeast portions of
the CWA. High res guidance and forecast soundings are supportive
of this with models in pretty close agreement.

UPDATE Issued at 704 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

Quick update to remove pops from eastern portions of our CWA, per
coordination with WFO FGF.

UPDATE Issued at 537 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

Other than temperatures running a little warmer than forecast for
portions of northern and western ND, the forecast is on track with
no other changes made.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

Current surface analysis places high pressure stretching from the
midwest into the central plains while low remains to the lee of
the Rockies. Upper level analysis places ridge stretching from
the central Rockies into the western Canadian plains with
northwest flow over our area. Potent short wave sliding through
Manitoba has been nudging into eastern North Dakota, but so far
only some clouds have formed over our area as precipitation has
held to the east.

For tonight, short wave will continue to slide
south/southeasterly. A stray weak shower could nudge some far
eastern locations, but overall the only concern will be an
increase in cloud cover later tonight.

On Thursday, besides some clouds passing through eastern
locations, a mainly quiet day is on tap as upper ridge axis passes

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

Behind the ridge axis, potent short wave attempts to close off as
it slides into the plains. This will interact with modest
instability to bring shower/thunderstorm chances across the area
as it moves east on Friday. Right now not thinking much of severe
chances, but the potential is there for some isolated severe
activity with the instability in place, particularly over southern

Shower chances linger into Saturday as a secondary wave pushes
through the area, which may also lead to a few thunderstorms.
Mainly dry conditions will follow into early next week as upper
ridge rebuilds over the western United States.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1129 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

An easterly to southeasterly wind this TAF period will result in
mvfr/ifr cigs and possibly vsbys for KMOT/KJMS/KDIK in the 09z
through 16z Thursday timeframe. For now, KISN/KBIS have much
lower probabilities for sub-vfr conditions, but will monitor
closely. Current satellite imagery and latest model guidance
suggests that KMOT mvfr/ifr timeframe would be between 09z-16z
Thursday, and at KJMS 12z-16z Thursday. Not totally confident the
same will occur at KDIK, so have added a vcfg and hinted at
sct005 until evidence is seen that deteriorating cigs are in fact
beginning to occur.




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