Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 231740
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1140 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1140 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2018

Cancelled the remaining counties in the dense fog advisory across
the north central. Now shallow cool air is spilling into northwest
North Dakota. Fog is forming along the west/southwest edge of this
area. Refined the areas of fog for the rest of the day to coincide
with this feature. Also lowered high temperatures where these
clouds are moving into, mainly northwest and north central.

UPDATE Issued at 904 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2018

Will cancel the dense fog advisory across south central and teh
James River Valley. Will continue north central.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)

Issued at 435 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2018

Main forecast highlight in the short term period will be
lingering dense fog this morning, with another batch of low
clouds and possible fog developing from north to south across
northwest and central ND today into tonight.

Currently, mid level S/WV trough and associated sfc trough moving
east through the Dakotas this morning. Westerly low level flow
behind the sfc trough eroding low stratus and fog from west to
east. Removed additional counties on the western edge of the adv
and added a few across my east as the fog migrates eastward.
Anticipate we will drop more counties from west to east over the
next several hours as fog lifts with the eastward push of the
frontal boundary.

The sky will trend scattered to clear this morning across most
locations before another batch of clouds move into the region.
Wrap around moisture will accompany an embedded short wave impulse
southeast across the Northern Plains today. Another area of low
stratus with some fog already in southeastern Saskatchewan will
advect south-southeast into northwest and north central ND this
morning, then will continue southeast across most of central ND
today and eventually into the James River Valley. Upstream
observations indicate sub-IFR stratus though visibilities are
above one mile last few obs. HRRR does indicate the potential for
dense fog with this next surge of low level moisture so another
round of fog headlines remains possible. Clouds linger through
tonight along a line from the northwest southeast into the
southern James Valley and all points north and east of this line.
Clear to partly cloudy conditions will prevail south and west of
the Missouri River.

Cloud cover or lack of will impact highs today and lows tonight,
and this was factored into the temperature forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)

Issued at 435 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2018

Warming trend along with dry conditions Wednesday into Thursday
daytime as an upper level ridge builds across the Rockies and then
across the Great Plains. We transition to southwesterly flow
aloft during the day Thursday, with a long wave trough then
developing east across the central CONUS Thursday night and
Friday. This will push a cold front through the region along with
some chances for snow mainly across the north. Best forcing and
moisture profiles remain off to our north and northeast.

ECMWF still brings an embedded mid level wave/clipper-type system
through our area Friday night into Saturday, which will bring a
reinforced shot of colder air along with some light snow. The GFS
washes this feature out but also indicates colder air with some
light snow chances. Return flow Sunday into Monday should moderate
our temperatures a bit followed by another cold front (strong?)
during the Tuesday/Wednesday time period along with the potential
for snow. To much uncertainty at this time to speak about
details.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1140 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2018

IFR ceilings at KJMS to erode from the west early this afternoon.
However, another large area of IFR ceilings already across much of
northern ND - and at KMOT and KMIB - is expected to move into KJMS
by late afternoon and remain until after daybreak Wednesday. KJMS
will also be affected by VFR/MVFR vsbys in fog tonight.

Large IFR cloud shield encompassing much of northern ND will remain
at KMOT and be near KISN/KBIS tonight. Warm air moving in from the
southwest beginning late tonight should help erode IFR clouds from
the west, but the edge of these clouds will be a favored area for
fog formation. Therefore have MVFR/IFR vsbys at KISN/KBIS/KMOT this
evening and much of tonight until improving conditions towards
daybreak.

VFR conditions expected at KDIK through the 24 hour TAF period.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JV


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