Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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486
FXUS64 KBMX 221612
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1112 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AFTER A RELATIVELY COOL START THIS MORNING TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN
THE 60S AT THIS HOUR ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. SKIES ARE
MAINLY CLEAR WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
AS THE AREA REMAINS IN LIGHT NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE RIDGE OVER KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE.
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A BIT COOLER THAN FORECAST...SO NUDGED HIGH
TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH ABOVE 80. MEANWHILE ACROSS
THE REST OF THE AREA HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...AND THE UPDATE IS ALREADY
OUT.

32/DAVIS

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS AND BEYOND.

16


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 331 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR HAS FILTERED INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE POST-FRONTAL STRATUS CLOUDS THAT LINGERED MUCH
LONGER THAN WE ANTICIPATED HAVE FINALLY DISSIPATED AND ONLY HIGH
CIRRUS IN THE WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAIN. A VERY PLEASANT LATE
SPRING DAY IS ON TAP FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO
DROP DOWN INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S. THE DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ADVECTED SOUTHWARD IN THE NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE 1024MB RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES TODAY ARE SUPPORTIVE OF MID 70S FOR THE NORTHERN HALF
AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. IN OTHER WORDS...PERFECT CONDITIONS FOR THOSE THAT HAVE
OUTDOOR PLANS TO START OFF YOUR MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. UPPER
HEIGHTS RISE QUICKLY BY SATURDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW MUCH WARMER
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. ALSO...THE SURFACE RIDGE TO OUR
NORTH WILL PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THAT WILL
BRING BACK SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AND QUICKLY INCREASE SURFACE
DEWPOINTS BY SUNDAY.

WE`RE STILL LOOKING AT A VERY MOIST AND UNSETTLED PATTERN COMING UP
FOR ALL OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME PARKED OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHILE THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS TRIES
TO INFRINGE UPON THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE OVER OUR NECK OF
THE WOODS. IN RETURN WE`LL GET SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS EACH DAY AS UPPER DISTURBANCES PASS OVER THE REGION. THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE HIGHLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN IN NATURE AND NOT
EVERYONE IS GOING TO SEE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. HOWEVER...THOSE THAT
DO SEE RAINFALL WILL SEE HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH PWATS OF 1.7 TO 1.8
INCHES (OVER THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR). CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO WARRANT RAISING POPS TO LIKELY FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA BOTH ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH THE UNSETTLED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
CONTINUING.

56/GDG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     76  52  83  60  84 /   0   0   0  10  10
ANNISTON    77  55  83  62  85 /   0   0   0  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  76  57  85  65  86 /   0   0   0  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  77  57  86  66  87 /   0   0   0  10  30
CALERA      76  56  84  65  87 /   0   0   0  10  10
AUBURN      78  59  83  63  84 /   0   0   0  10  10
MONTGOMERY  80  60  87  65  88 /   0   0   0  10  10
TROY        80  59  86  65  87 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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