Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 181138
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
538 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNING...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
INTO THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS TO THE GULF. AT THE SAME
TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
EJECTING WEAK DISTURBANCES AND UPPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE GULF
COAST STATES/SOUTHEAST U.S.. AN AREA OF SHOWERS IS MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI/WESTERN TENNESSEE AND THE NORTHWEST FRINGE OF
ALABAMA. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS THIS AM MAY SCRAPE OUR NORTHWEST
CWA COUNTIES. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SKIRT TO THE
NORTH.

THE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING IS HELPING TO DEVELOP A LEE SIDE SURFACE
SYSTEM WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE TEXAS COAST
ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
U.S.. THIS WILL BRING A DECENT CHANCE FOR MAINLY SHOWER ACTIVITY
AS THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO STAY ALONG THE GULF COAST WITH
VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY. WILL LEAVE IN A TOKEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER ALONG THE SOUTHERN FRINGE TIER OF COUNTIES. HOWEVER...WITH
HIGHLY POSITIVE LI`S/LITTLE CAPE/MEAGER TT/S THINK THE STRIKES
WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN IF THE LOW CONTINUES ON THE CURRENT
FORECAST TRACK. COULD SEE ONE HALF TO AN INCH OF RAIN ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH IN THE BETTER CELLS.

THE UPPER TROUGH FLATTENS OUT AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE COUNTRY
SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE LOW TO LINGER ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST GULF AND WEAKEN. IT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME LINGERING
LOW POPS (BEST CHANCES SOUTHEAST HALF) FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEKEND. BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MAKES ITS
WAY ACROSS THE COUNTRY AND HELPS TO NUDGE THE SURFACE FEATURE
ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE ATLANTIC AND USHER IN OUR NEXT SURFACE
FRONT AS WELL ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

BY TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES PICK UP ONCE AGAIN AHEAD
OF/ALONG THE NEXT SURFACE FRONT. SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THE COLDER AIR GETS USHERED IN AS WELL...BUT THERE IS
NORMALLY A FINE LINE BETWEEN THE LINGERING MOISTURE AND THE
ARRIVAL OF THE COLD AIR (ENOUGH FOR ANYTHING FROSTY THAT IS) AND
THEY NORMALLY ARE NOT QUITE IN TIME TOGETHER. SO ACROSS THE
EXTREME NORTHERN COUNTIES WEDNESDAY MORNING COULD SEE A FLURRY OR
TWO MIXED IN WITH THE EXITING RAIN SHOWERS BUT MORE THAN LIKELY
JUST RAIN AND WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING THE MORE IMPORTANT
THING IS THAT WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY IMPACTS FROM THIS.

FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE ALL MOISTURE WILL HAVE EXITED BEFORE
CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT AND CHRISTMAS DAY...WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO BE
DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE PERIOD. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS A SHORTWAVE SLIDES
EASTWARD. THERE ARE LIGHT SHOWERS ONGOING ACROSS TN AND MS...AND
THESE WILL MOVE ENE ACROSS PORTIONS OF N AL TODAY. AT THIS
TIME...STILL EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF THE RAIN TO STAY NORTH OF THE
TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTH.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     52  34  51  41  50 /  20  10  30  90  60
ANNISTON    54  36  53  44  52 /  10  10  20  90  70
BIRMINGHAM  52  37  52  44  53 /  20  10  40  90  50
TUSCALOOSA  53  39  52  45  54 /  20  10  60  90  50
CALERA      54  39  53  45  54 /  10  10  40 100  50
AUBURN      59  41  56  47  55 /   0  10  30  80  80
MONTGOMERY  60  41  57  48  57 /  10  10  50  90  60
TROY        61  42  57  48  58 /   0  10  40  80  60

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







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