Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KBMX 290411
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1111 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017

.UPDATE...
06Z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

Fair skies prevail across much of central with surface high
pressure over the Mid Atlantic region. Surface southeast winds are
increasing the dew points gradually and will support an increase
in clouds late this afternoon and into the evening hours.
Continued to maintain slightly lower PoP`s across central Alabama
through late afternoon followed by few changes to the ongoing
forecast tonight and into early on Wednesday. Expect rain chances
to increase overnight and into early Wednesday as a weak front
along the Gulf Coast lifts northward toward central Alabama.

05

Previous mesoscale discussion from this morning.

12Z balloon sounding revels a relatively dry profile with a stout
subsidence inversion around 700 millibars. Additionally, a
radiation inversion was detected right off the surface. The
radiation inversion has mostly already mixed out with surface
temperatures already in the lower 70`s at 8 am. Precipitable
water values are around 0.93 inches which is about a tenth of an
inch less than this time yesterday morning. The wind profile
overall is weak with southwest flow aloft while a more southerly
flow was present toward the surface.

Morning surface analysis along with recent radar and satellite
imagery review indicates lower pressures that exist along the
central Gulf Coast while higher pressures were found across
north-central Georgia. Two low-level boundaries were found in
satellite imagery over interior southwest Alabama and were
drifting northeast.

Due to the drier air in the sounding this morning opted to
slightly decrease PoP`s across our north-central counties while
slightly increasing PoP`s late this morning through the afternoon
over our southern and southeast counties. The two low-level
boundaries may help to enhance surface convergence across our
southern and southeast counties late this morning and into early
afternoon.

JH/TB

Previous short-term discussion:Today and tonight.

Overall high pressure will still be in control of the region today
and tonight. However, we will see some more features that will
impact the region and begin to moisten up the area for the
extended portion of the forecast. For this afternoon, we will
begin to see a seabreeze move northward. Looks like it will
approach the area late in the afternoon into the evening hours.
Will include isolated to scattered showers and storms in the far
south through this evening. We will continue to moisten as
southerly flow increases over the region. There may be just enough
lift late tonight to generate an isolated shower/storm across the
eastern two-thirds of the area so will include during that time
as well. Most of the area will remain dry through the next 24
hours. More of a typical summer time forecast, with a little more
in humidity by the afternoon.

16

.LONG TERM...
Thursday through Tuesday.

Deep moisture will continue to spread inland on Thursday as a
disturbance moves northward from the Gulf of Mexico. For the
weekend, an upper-level trough is expected to approach the region
and provide additional focus for convection. This pattern should
lead to an extended period high rain chances for Thursday through
Sunday. Rain chances may decrease somewhat for early next week with
the passage of a diffuse front, but moisture content could remain
sufficient for isolated diurnally-driven convection.

87/Grantham


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF Discussion.

A few isolated storms remain across far southeast Alabama tonight.
Current radar trends show this activity remaining northeast of TOI
and MGM. If activity builds to the southwest, amendments will be
needed to include TSRA.

Guidance has backed off on the quick lowering of cigs overnight, but
have MVFR cigs spreading from southeast to northwest at TOI, MGM and
TCL early Thursday morning. Showers and storms will quickly increase
in coverage through the morning hours, and have included VCTS at all
sites.

14

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Rain chances should begin to increase across our southern areas
today. This will continue for Thursday through Sunday with high
rain chances expected. There are no fire weather concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     68  83  70  84  71 /  20  60  40  70  50
Anniston    69  82  70  84  71 /  20  70  50  70  40
Birmingham  71  83  71  85  72 /  10  70  40  70  50
Tuscaloosa  71  85  71  86  72 /  10  70  40  70  50
Calera      70  83  71  84  72 /  20  70  40  70  50
Auburn      69  81  70  83  71 /  20  70  50  70  40
Montgomery  71  84  72  86  73 /  20  70  40  70  40
Troy        72  81  70  84  71 /  30  70  40  70  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None.

&&

$$


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.