Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 232335
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
635 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

.UPDATE...
Aviation Discussion.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Tonight through Wednesday.

Front number one has passed Central Alabama with west and
northwest winds behind it. An area of post frontal cloudiness
continues its trek west to east and will also gradually decrease
in size through the evening hours. Expect mostly clear conditions
later this evening. Another sharper cold front will move through
the area late tonight as the upper levels remain active. These
fronts come courtesy of a deepening eastern Conus trough and
associated cold air advection regime. Temperatures on Tuesday
close to Mondays conditions north, except much less cloudiness.
Southern areas will be near 70 and below normal. The heart of the
cold punch will drop highs to near 60 Wednesday which is well
below normal for late October. Overnight lows will be near 50 in
most places tonight, cooler in the sheltered valleys north.
Wednesday morning will be the coolest, with the north 35 to 40
degrees and south around 40. Take the necessary precautions if you
have any sensitive plants outside.

75

.LONG TERM...
Tuesday through Monday.

A transition to warmer conditions is expected on Thursday and
Friday as southerly flow develops in response to a large trough
forming in the western CONUS. Model spread has tightened a bit on
the arrival time of the next front, ranging from Friday afternoon
into early Saturday morning. The ECMWF continues to show a solid
band of rain along the front, while the GFS has been waffling
between dry and wet. The forecast will lean toward the wetter
solution with the highest rain chances centered on Saturday and
Saturday evening. If the wetter solution verifies, temperatures
may not rise out of the 40s/50s on Saturday behind the front. The
cold airmass should continue to pour into the region on Sunday and
Sunday night, potentially setting the stage for our first frost
and/or freeze of the season.

87/Grantham

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF Discussion.

Cloud cover has pushed east of most terminals quickly this
afternoon, and should see cigs become sct at ANB around 24/00Z.
Clear skies are then expected through the forecast period. Moist
surface conditions could result in light MVFR fog at ASN and ANB
late tonight.

Northwest winds will relax overnight, and possibly become calm at
some locations. Then increase Tuesday morning, and could be gusty
through the afternoon, with sustained winds at 12-13kt and gusts up
to 22kts.

14

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Another cold front moves through overnight. Dry conditions are
anticipated the next several days. Relative humidity values
should remain above critical thresholds, but breezy conditions are
expected Tuesday afternoon. There are no fire weather concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     49  63  37  58  38 /  10   0   0   0   0
Anniston    49  65  37  59  38 /  10   0   0   0   0
Birmingham  50  65  40  60  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  50  67  41  63  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
Calera      49  66  40  61  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
Auburn      50  67  42  61  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
Montgomery  50  70  41  64  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
Troy        51  69  43  62  40 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None.

&&

$$


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