Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 291151 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
651 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LOOKING AT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY
SPINNING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WITH A RIDGE CENTERED JUST
SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. TWO SHORTWAVES ARE
DISCERNIBLE...ONE CAN BE SEEN MOVING SOUTH AND EAST INTO
MISSOURI/ILLINOIS WITH THE SECOND DIVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST. EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES AT THE SFC ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA WITH RIDGING ALONG THE APPALACHIANS. MOISTURE VALUES WILL
CONTINUE TO RISE TODAY WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FROM EAST TO
WEST THRU THE DAY. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL REMAIN EAST OF INTERSTATE
65 WHERE PW VALUES WILL RISE TO NEAR 2.0 INCHES. TEMPS WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THANKS TO CLOUD COVER AND RAIN.

RAIN CHANCES WILL SLOWLY DECREASE ON SUNDAY...GENERALLY FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE
APPALACHIANS. WITH NO REAL LIFTING MECHANISMS PRESENT ON MONDAY
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER/STORM IN THE EAST.

CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FROM MID WEEK ONWARD DROPS OFF DUE
MAINLY TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE EVOLUTION OF WHAT IS CURRENTLY TS
ERIKA. THE LATEST FORECAST FROM NHC HAS ERIKA WEAKENING AS IT
MOVES OVER CUBA WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF IT RESTRENGTHENING OVER THE
EASTERN GULF. AT THIS TIME NO MAJOR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED HERE IN
CENTRAL ALABAMA BUT ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS MAY BE NEEDED BASED ON
FUTURE CHANGES TO THE TRACK/INTENSITY FORECAST. FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MOIST OVERALL PATTERN WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
ENTIRE FORECAST AS UPPER LOW SITS OVER NORTHERN GULF ALLOWING
MOISTURE TO STREAM INTO THE STATE. SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING EVEN BEFORE SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPS...BUT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE NOT AS ROBUST INITIALLY. SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH A FEW
EMBEDDED TSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD GET MORE WIDESPREAD AS WE
PROGRESS DURING THE DAY. ONLY MENTIONING VCTS FOR NOW AS MORE SHRA
THAN TS EXPECTED.

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MOISTURE VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE TODAY WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST. CURRENTLY EXPECTING SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH MORE NUMEROUS
SHOWER/STORMS IN THE EAST. RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO DECREASE ON
SUNDAY WITH ISO/SCT CONVECTION POSSIBLE EACH DAY NEXT WEEK. NO
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     82  69  83  68  87 /  60  40  50  20  20
ANNISTON    82  69  84  68  88 /  60  50  50  20  20
BIRMINGHAM  83  70  86  69  89 /  40  40  40  20  20
TUSCALOOSA  87  70  89  70  92 /  30  20  20  10  10
CALERA      84  70  86  69  89 /  60  30  30  10  20
AUBURN      82  69  85  69  88 /  70  60  40  20  20
MONTGOMERY  87  70  90  71  92 /  60  30  30  10  20
TROY        85  69  89  70  91 /  70  30  30  10  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

19/08



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