Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 301422
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1022 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION. A COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY
IMPACT MOSTLY SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION BY LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1015 AM UPDATE...ADJUSTED THE SKY CONDITIONS TO GO W/MORE CLOUDS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA BASED 12Z CAR
SOUNDING SHOWING DEEP RH IN THE LLVLS(BELOW 700MBS). STILL
EXPECTED NW WINDS TO KEEP THE DOWNEAST AND COAST W/LESS CLOUDS
THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO DOWNSLOPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE REGION AWAITS THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY
TODAY, BUT A LAYER OF MOISTURE AT 850-900 MB ALONG WITH SOME
DAYTIME MIXING WILL ALLOW SOME STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
THIS MORNING. WE`LL SEE A BIT OF CLEARING AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT,
BUT CLOUDS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TREKS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL,
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTH.
TONIGHT`S TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOL, ESPECIALLY IN THE SAINT
JOHN VALLEY WHERE UPPER 20S ARE POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTH,
LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S ARE EXPECTED, WHILE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
MAINE WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S; UPPER 30S RIGHT
ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE S/WV ENERGY FROM
CNTRL CAN THAT CONT TO DIG SSE INTO THE CAROLINA`S BY SAT MORN. A
WEAK LEAD S/WV ALLOWS A FIRST SFC LOW TO FORM EAST OF THE VA CAPE
ON THE POLAR FRONT WELL AHEAD OF MAIN ENERGY WITH THE DEVELOPING
UPPER LOW. THIS INITIAL LOW WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR BRINGING THE
INITIAL CLDNSS AND MSLY LGT PRECIP TO THE REGION BY SAT AFTN INTO
SAT NGT...WITH MORE SIG PRECIP TO SE PTNS OF THE FA SAT NGT.
PRECIP...WHICH WILL BE LGT AND UNORGANIZED INTO ERLY SAT AFTN...
WILL FALL MSLY AS RN OR A MIX OF RN AND SN...WITH BOTH LLVL COLD
ADVCN DYNAMIC COOLING FROM ALF RESULTING IN A CHGOVR TO ALL SN
DURG THE EVE HRS TO ALL REGIONS N OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND EVEN
ALG THE COAST BY LATE SAT NGT. IF THE CONSENSUS OF FCST QPF IS
ACCURATE FROM THIS FAR OUT...THE BEST POTENTIAL OF SIG SNFL WITH
THIS FIRST WV OF LOW PRES AS IT TRACKS E OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL BE
OVR INTERIOR SE PTNS OF THE REGION WHERE SVRL INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE...WITH PROGRESSIVELY LESSER SNFL N AND W...BUT WE
EMPHASIZE IT IS STILL ERLY TO COUNT ON ANY PARTICULAR SCENARIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BOTH THE 00Z DTMNSTC GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT AFT THE PASSAGE
OF THE FIRST SFC LOW JUST E OF NOVA SCOTIA...THE POLAR FRONT MAY
BE PUSHED FURTHER SE OFF THE ERN U.S. COAST...RESULTING IN THE
SECOND SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW SUN TO BE FCST
TO TRACK ALG OR A LITTLE FURTHER E THAN THE FIRST SFC LOW...WHICH
IS SIG FURTHER E THAN ADVERTISED BY THE MODELS YSTDY ATTM. IF THIS
SCENARIO WERE TO PLAY OUT...THEN ANY ADDITIONAL SIG SNFL ON SUN
WOULD BE LMTD TO SE WASHINGTON COUNTY...WITH SNFL WINDING DOWN AS
SN SHWRS ELSEWHERE...AND THEN ENDING ACROSS ALL THE REGION SUN
NGT. THE BOTTOM LN WITH THIS COMPLEX SCENARIO IS THAT GIVEN THAT
THE MODEL TREND OF THE TRACKS OF BOTH SFC LOWS IS FURTHER E OVR
THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS...ITS TO ERLY ATTM TO COMMIT TO ANY WINTER
STM WATCHES FOR EVEN SE PTNS OF THE FA ATTM. THIS IS NOT TO SAY
THAT THE MODEL TREND COULD NOT REVERSE SOMEWHAT WITHIN THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO...BUT GIVEN THE HEMISPHERIC LONG WV SET UP WITH THE
BOTTOMING OF THE S/WV ENERGY OVR THE ERN CAROLINA`S ACCOMPANIED
BY WEAK FAR N ATLC BLOCKING ASSOCIATED WITH AN NAO- TELECONNECTION
PATTERN...EVEN A WORST CASE SCENARIO WOULD ONLY SIG IMPACT THE SE
HLF OF THE FA...WHICH IS SUPPORTED ATTM BY ANALOGS WITH THE UNIV
OF ST LOUIS ANALOG WEB SITE.

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE SECOND SFC LOW INTO THE ERN MARITIMES...
COLD...BRISK AND DRY CONDITONS CAN BE XPCTD ON MON AS WEAK SFC HI
PRES FROM THE W APCHS BY MON EVE. THIS SFC HI WILL CREST THE FA
MON NGT WITH SLACKENING WINDS. DESPITE THIS...THE ARRIVAL OF HI
CLDNSS ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER S/WV FROM THE GREAT LKS WILL NOT
ALLOW FOR MUCH RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS LATE MON NGT. WITH
MID AND LOW LVL WARM ADVCN UNDERWAY...SHWRS OR LGT RN FROM THIS
S/WV ON TUE MAY BRIEFLY START AS SN OR MIXED RN/SN ACROSS CNTRL
AND NRN PTNS OF THE FA ON TUE THEN CONT TUE NGT INTO WED AS BOTH
850 AND 925 MB TEMPS SLOWLY RISE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS TODAY, MAINLY
AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: VFR XPCTD FRI NGT...THEN LOWERING TO MVFR ALL
TAF SITES SAT WITH CLD CLGS AND VSBYS IN LGT RN/SN...THEN POSSIBLY
TO IFR SAT NGT INTO SUN IN CLGS AND MSLY SNFL. CONDITIONS IMPROVE
TO VFR CLGS DOWNEAST AND HI MVFR CLGS ACROSS NRN TAF SITES SUN NGT
INTO MON.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
QUIET ON THE WATERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. NO HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASE TO POTENTIAL GALE
CONDITIONS FOR SAT INTO ERLY MON...BUT GIVEN HOW FAR OUT IN TM
THIS PTN OF THE FCST IS AND UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE STORM
TRACK...STILL TO ERLY FOR ANY WATCHES ATTM. KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV
GUIDANCE FOR FCST WV HTS FOR THESE PTNS OF THE FCST.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/VJN



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