Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 221955
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
255 PM EST Wed Nov 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the region this evening as an area of
low pressure passes to the south of the area tonight. High
pressure will cross the region Thursday.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A cold front and associated cold upper trough in the northern
stream is merging with low pressure moving along the Atlantic
coast in the southern stream. The low is rapidly deepening and
will continue deepening overnight as it tracks towards eastern
Nova Scotia. The cold front is evolving into a slow-moving
inverted trough as the southern stream low becomes dominant.
Moderate to heavy rain is moving northeastward along the
inverted trough and will continue pushing northward late this
afternoon into the evening. Around an inch or more of rain is
expected for much of Washington County.  As the low in the
Atlantic moves further east this evening, some colder air will
be drawn southeastward towards the low...transitioning rain to
snow. This will mainly affect northeast Aroostook County where
an inch or two could fall this evening before precip ends.
Falling temperatures and strong winds will help freeze remaining
moisture on the roads tonight. Gusty northwest winds can be
expected through the night on the backside of the deepening low
and have leaned towards a blend of model guidance for lows
tonight. Ridging quickly takes hold later tonight and should put
a quick end to stratocumulus fields on the backside of the low.
High and mid clouds will increase on Thanksgiving afternoon
ahead of an approaching cold front. Highs will reach the low to
mid 30s in the southern half of the forecast area. Upper 20s to
lower 30s are forecast north of Houlton and the Katahdin region.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Frontal bndry wl be appchg CWA Thu night as it drops south out of
Canada. Winds wl turn to the sw ahd of front drawing in higher dwpt
air bfr dropping acrs the north twd daybreak. At this time frcg does
not look to be strong enuf to be concerned about squalls acrs nrn
zones as strongest frcg looks to be to the north and east in Quebec.
Cannot rule out an isold snow shower acrs the far nw ovrngt but
little in the way of accums.

Weak hipres briefly influences area`s wx on Fri before wmfnt lifts
north of the area Fri aftn. Overrunning wl lkly lead to chc for lgt
snow acrs the far north once again late Fri aftn into the evng hrs.
Temps acrs Downeast wl climb to nr normal for highs in the aftn in
the lwr 40s while nrn zones wl be hard-pressed to climb abv frzg.

CWA wl be in the wmsector Fri night into Sat evng with temps
climbing well abv normal for the first half of the weekend. May see
pcpn begin to dvlp Sat aftn as cdfnt encroaches twd international
brdr aft 18z. For now wl go with slgt-low chc pops drg the aftn
given model discrepancy on timing of bndry.

Latest 12z runs continue to disagree on coastal low twd the end of
the short term pd. GFS and EC hv vry minimal impact on the area thru
Sat, while CMC and especially NAM indicate coastal areas may see
some influence on wx Sat evng.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Fropa wl occur Sat night with upr lvl trof lagging bhnd resulting in
chc pcpn thru the day on Sunday. Cold advection in wake of fropa wl
result in rain changing to snow from north to south by Sun mrng.
Pcpn drg the day wl lkly be in the form of snow showers acrs the
north and rain in Downeast area as maxes wl rmn in the l30s for the
north and arnd 40 in Downeast.

High pressure wl build in on Monday with H5 ridge expected into Mon
evng bfr beginning to break down Tue mrng as a warm front lifts
north. Med range guidance differ on mvmnt of next front with EC mvg
it thru Wed mrng and GFS/CMC bringing fropa thru on Wed evng. As a
result hv warmed mins on Wed mrng by svrl degrees above
Superblend.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR to LIFR cigs and vis in rain at BGR and BHB will
persist into this evening...followed by improvement to VFR
conditions by late evening. Further north...VFR conditions will
deteriorate to IFR in the rain. North of HUL, rain will change
to snow this evening with IFR tempo LIFR vis. All sites will be
VFR after midnight through Thursday.

SHORT TERM: MVFR restrictions expected to move into nrn
terminals Fri morning as front moves through and low cigs will
be present in stratocu. Conditions improve to VFR Fri afternoon
before diminishing again Sat morning mainly across the north in
low cigs and rain showers. Restrictions continue off and on
across the north through Sunday before improving to VFR on
Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: The strong winds over the waters kick in later this
evening behind the deepening low near Nova Scotia. A few gusts
could exceed 35 kts, but not with a duration or frequency that
prompts an upgrade to gale. Winds will be decreasing by late
tonight as the low moves away and high pressure builds.

SHORT TERM: Winds will remain below SCA levels Thursday into
Friday evening. Wind gusts will increase to aoa 25kts Fri night
thru the day Saturday. On the other hand, seas will remain at
marginal SCA levels into the day on Friday. Seas increase above
5 feet Fri night in southerly swell.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST
     Thursday for ANZ052.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for ANZ050-051.
&&
$$

Near Term...MCW
Short Term...Farrar
Long Term...Farrar
Aviation...MCW/Farrar
Marine...MCW/Farrar



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