Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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950
FXUS61 KCAR 191020
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
620 AM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain over the area today while Hurricane
Jose approaches southeastern New England. Jose will turn
eastward and track south of the Gulf of Maine Wednesday into
Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
6:15 AM Update...Raised temps a few degrees early this morning
with low clouds and moisture keeping the air warm. Otherwise,
forecast remains on track. A few light showers have moved into
Washington county early this morning. Some spotty showers and
drizzle will likely continue Downeast.

Low clouds and fog cover much of the area early this morning as
a moist air mass remains over the area. Low clouds will likely
remain over much of the region today in deep moisture. However,
some sunshine may break out over northwestern areas. As a
result, Temperatures will likely be higher in the northwest, but
a bit lower in eastern and Downeast areas under the low clouds
and some patchy drizzle. Hurricane Jose is still expected to
track north, then turn northeast and east passing a few hundred
miles southeast of Cape Cod. A band of rain well north of the
storm is expected to push onto the Downeast coast late today or
this evening and continue overnight. Otherwise, the main impact
from Jose will be high and potentially dangerous surf along the
Downeast coast through tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Jose, which is expected to be downgraded to a tropical storm by
Wednesday morning, will reach as far north as 40N on Wednesday,
well south of the Gulf of Maine, before getting ready to turn
back to the southeast. Rain along the downeast coast should
taper off early Wednesday as high pressure begins pushing down
from the north. However, dangerous surf is expected to continue
through Wednesday and likely into Thursday as the slow moving
storm slides east then begins to turn back to the southeast.
Skies should partially clear over the north Wednesday but remain
mostly cloudy Downeast. High pressure building down from the
north will then bring clearing from north to south Wednesday
night. This will give way to a sunny and mild day on Thursday as
high pressure and strong upper level ridging builds over the
area. Temperatures will be near, or just a few degrees above
normal on Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Dry wx through this term expected w/above normal temperatures.

Jose to begin to drop southward Thursday night into Friday as
shown by the latest forecast from the NHC. The biggest effects
will be along the coast but more so over the coastal waters and
this is addressed in the marine and tidal sections below.

High pres is set to build across the region Friday into the
weekend. The long range guidance diverges a bit for Saturday w/a
disturbance/frontal boundary forecast to slide down from Canada
which appears to be remnants of a MCC/MCS. The GFS is robust
w/bringing a decent dose of QPF across the northern tier while
the ECMWF is much drier and keeps much of the activity well
north of the state. The Canadian Global model does hint at some
light rainfall, but much weaker. Thinking here is that the GFS
could be having convective feedback issues and therefore leaned
toward a much drier forecast. As stated above, daytime temps
will be averaging well above normal.

Interestingly enough, the 00z run of the ECMWF showed Jose
getting caught up in the path of Hurricane Maria and gets pushed
on out further the ene later Sunday into Monday. The 00Z GFS is
somewhat similar to this solution. We will need to wait and see
what transpires over the next several days.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR conditions in low clouds are expected to persist
today into tonight. Conditions should improve to VFR across the
north on Wednesday and improve to MVFR Downeast. VFR conditions
are then expected Wednesday night through Thursday with the
possible exception of some patchy fog across the north early
Thursday morning.

SHORT TERM: VFR right through the period for all terminals as
winds in the blyr become nne allowing for clearing and no
visibility restrictions.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SCA for high seas will be up today and tonight
transitioning to a SCA to include both seas and winds Wednesday
into Wednesday night. Some rain and fog will also likely limit
visibilities through tonight. Visibilities should improve on
Wednesday.

SHORT TERM: SCA conditions to continue Thursday into Friday
w/sustained winds of 20 to 25 kts. There is a chance that gusts
could reach up to 35 kts especially on the outer zones on
Thursday. Seas will be 7-10 ft w/a ese swell slowly subsiding
to 5 to 7 ft by late Friday. Winds will drop back to 15 to 20 kt
by Friday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A high surf advisory remains in effect and was extended into
Wednesday. Concern is very long period southeasterly swell from
Jose, currently running as high as 16 seconds. High period swell
will have a much greater impact in the surf zone. Long period
waves can run up much higher on the shore than shorter period
waves resulting in the danger of spectators being washed into
the ocean. Dangerous Rip Currents are also expected.

The astronomical tide will be at the highest levels of the
month as well over the next few days. Northeasterly winds are
expected to increase Wednesday resulting in an additional 1 foot
storm surge. The additional increase in water level due to the
winds coupled with high period southeasterly swell could result
in splash over around the time of high tide Tonight (11:00 PM)
and Wednesday Morning (11:30 AM) in areas exposed to large ocean
waves.

Since the expected storm surge is going to be less than 2 feet,
the total water levels inland from the coast are not expected
to be high enough for flooding resulting from storm surge.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for MEZ029-030.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 8 AM EDT
     Wednesday for ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

Near Term...Bloomer
Short Term...Bloomer
Long Term...Hewitt
Aviation...Bloomer/Bloomer
Marine...Bloomer/Bloomer
Tides/Coastal Flooding...Mignone/Bloomer



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