Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 280309
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1009 PM EST Mon Feb 27 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure will build over the region through Tuesday.
A warm front will lift across the region Wednesday as low
pressure tracks to our west.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
945 PM Update: Sn shwrs have ended across the region with radar
ref only showing some mid cld returns ovr SE ME. Adjustments
were made to fcst cld cvr for the remainder of the ngt based on
latest Sat imagery trends. Otherwise...fcst hrly temps into the
late ngt were adjusted based on trends seen from latest sfc obs
from the prev temp fcst for mid eve and minor adjustments to
fcst ovrngt lows to factor more vly low temps across...with
new lows msly posted at 6am Tue.

Orgnl Disc: Cdfnt still back acrs Quebec and dropping south
with snow showers just ahd of bndry this aftn. Winds are fairly
gusty out of the southwest, gusting to btwn 30-35kts at times.
Snow showers wl bcm more scattered this evening and diminish twd
00z. As skies clr ovrngt bhnd fnt temps wl settle out in the
single digits acrs the St. John Vly and lwr 20s for Downeast.

Ridge axis wl shift off to the east by mrng with flow coming
arnd to the sw once again Tuesday. As a result maxes wl warm
well abv normal with highs in the 30s acrs the north and lwr 40s
for the south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Low pressure approaching from the great lakes will bring a mild and
moist southerly flow Tuesday night. This will bring a chance of rain
Downeast, and a chance of snow changing to rain across the north.
Some patchy fog is possible Downeast too. Wednesday into Wednesday
will then be a mild with some rain and fog as the low tracks up to
our west. Most of the rain will be across the north. A cold front
will follow Thursday morning and rain across the north may change
over to snow showers before ending. Thursday will be windy and
turning colder as the low exits into the Maritimes. Snow showers
across the north should taper off by midday. Downeast will become
mostly sunny and the north partly sunny as the system moves east
through the maritimes.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
An upper level trough sliding into the east combined with surface
high pressure building in from the west will bring much colder
weather at the end of the week. Lows Thursday night will range from
the single digits north to the teens Downeast. Friday will be dry
with temperatures below normal ranging from 20 north to near
freezing along the Downeast coast. The high building to our
southwest combined with low pressure lifting north through the
Maritimes will bring gusty winds and very cold weather Saturday with
highs about 10 degrees below normal over the region. On Sunday a
weak shortwave will slide across the region. This may bring some
patchy light snow to the area. Otherwise, Sunday will be partly to
mostly cloudy and continued cold. Monday will be dry and continued
very cold as a long ridge of high pressure extending down from
central Canada pushes across the northeast.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR next 24 hours all terminals. Brief snow shower
may bring restrictions down to low MVFR or even IFR but not
long enough to mention in fcst at this time. Gusty SW winds
between 30-35 kts through evening before becoming lgt/vrb
tonight.


SHORT TERM: IFR conditions in low clouds, rain and fog are
expected Tuesday night through Wednesday. Conditions may improve
to VFR Downeast and MVFR across the north Wednesday night. MVFR
conditions across the north and VFR conditions Downeast are
likely on Thursday. Mainly VFR conditions are likely throughout
the area Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: 945 PM Update...We finally ended the SCA for inner
bay/harbor MZ052 based on trends seen in latest buoy obs. The
SCA for the outer waters still conts til 5am, but could be canx
earlier if winds and wvs subside prior to this tm.

Orgnl Disc...Will extend SCA on outer waters, mainly
for seas through 10z in the morning. Winds will be aob 25kts
thru the ovrngt but seas will rmn 5-8 feet tonight. Levels drop
blo SCA conditions on intracoastal waters after 00z. Expect
winds and seas below SCA on Tuesday.

SHORT TERM: Winds should be below SCA Tuesday night. An SCA and
possibly a gale will likely be needed Wednesday into Wednesday
night for wind gusts up to 30 to 35 kt from the south. Winds may
then approach 40 kt on Thursday in gusty southwest winds
following a cold frontal passage which would require a
continuation of the gale.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The Piscataquis river at Dover Foxcroft has crested and is
beginning to recede. However, The Penobscot River at Enfield and
the Mattawamkeag river at Mattawamkeag continue to rise. Flood
stages have not been reached. Rivers may stabilize tonight and
Tuesday but may continue to rise Wednesday into Thursday in
response to more warm weather and rainfall. Movement of ice on
the rivers continues to be a potential as snowmelt and rainfall
increase flow.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EST this evening for ANZ052.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

Near Term...VJN
Short Term...Bloomer
Long Term...Bloomer
Aviation...VJN/Bloomer
Marine...VJN/Bloomer
Hydrology...VJN


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