Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 281604

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1204 PM EDT Fri Oct 28 2016

Low pressure will intensify along the New England coast
early this morning, then cross the Gulf of Maine this afternoon.
High pressure will briefly build later tonight into Saturday
morning. Weak low pressure will move across the state later
Saturday into Saturday night. High pressure builds Sunday into


12:03 PM Update...Low pressure in the southern Gulf of Maine will
pass south of Nova Scotia this evening. Rain is falling across all
of Down East Maine and about as far north as Millinocket, with
some snow at mainly the higher elevations of the central
highlands. It now appears that the northern edge of the
Precipitation will not make it north of about the Mars Hill area,
and will thus lower the PoPs/QPF to the north significantly. Also
plan to drop the winter weather advisories for zones 5 and 6 with
this update. Although colder air is wrapping back in and the wind
aloft is backing into the northeast most of the snow will be
highly elevation dependent, and will fall where the precipitation
is falling more heavily, which will be mainly across the central
Highlands. As the precipitation has picked up in intensity the
rain has changed over to wet snow in the Abbot and Dover-Foxcroft

Previous discussion... A vertically stacked upper low in northern
New York features a decaying surface low. Cyclogenesis is
currently underway along the southern New England coast. This will
become the primary low in the next several hours and quickly
deepen. The deepening low will generate very strong east winds
along the coast this morning with gusts in the 45 to 50 mph range.
The wind advisory remains in place. These winds may down a few
trees and cause some power outages. Heavy rain will go along with
these winds. As much as an inch to an inch and a half of rain
could fall today. Further inland, the concern will be snow
starting as far south as the Dexter and Milo around and eastward
to southern Aroostook. Have left the advisory in place but
extended it to 8pm this evening when the snow should be exited
into New Brunswick. The heaviest accumulations appear to be in
remote areas from Greenville to the Katahdin region where some 7
inches of heavy wet snow is possible. There`s still some concern
about adding zone 31 in southern Piscataquis County to the
advisory as several inches of snow seems reasonable towards Sebec
and Brownville. With temperatures in the low to mid 30s, the keys
to accumulation will be elevation and snowfall intensity to
overcome warmth in the boundary layer. Further north, ridging in
the Canadian Maritimes will likely keep precip out of the Crown of
Maine for this event. Have leaned towards NAM12 surface temps for
today`s grids.

For tonight, the low will quickly move east and cloudy skies will
remain over the area with lows in the mid to upper 30s.


Storm system wl be exiting into the Maritimes Sat mrng with vry
brief ridge axis nosing into CWA drg the day. Srly flow wl draw in
wrmr temps in the aftn with maxes in the lwr 40s acrs nrn zones and
nr 50 for Downeast. Next system wl appch fm the west aft 12z with
temps low enuf to possibly start off as a rain/snow mix acrs the
Allagash as H5 s/wv appchs.

Fropa wl occur Sat night with just a few showers drg the ovrngt. Nw
flow expected on Sun with stratocu expected bulk of the day bfr
hipres builds in Sun night. Maxes on Sun wl be just slightly cooler
than Sat. Mins Mon morning wl be colder than Sun as skies begin to


Hipres and dry wx can be expected into Tue mrng bfr high builds into
the Maritimes. Next system wl once again mv in fm Canada Tue aftn
with front crossing CWA on Wed with showers ending fm west to east
by the afternoon. Some discrepancies in med range guidance past mid-
week as GFS is more progressive aloft and keeps unsettled wx in
thru the end of the pd whereas EC is dry. For now hv just kept 20-
30 pops in thru Thur ngt with temps right arnd normal.


NEAR TERM: IFR conditions will develop this morning towards BGR
and BHB with heavy rain and IFR cigs. LLWS is expected with 50 kt
easterly winds at FL020 near the coast. Further inland, sites such
as GNR, MLT and HUL will have LIFR to VLIFR vis due to
snow...which could be heavy at times...especially around GNR.
Northern terminals such as PQI, CAR and FVE will be VFR this
morning and trend towards MVFR cigs later this afternoon and

SHORT TERM: MVFR possible across northern terminals Sat morning in
stratocu in NW flow in wake of departing system. MVFR/IFR expected
on Sat/Sat night as next system moves in. VFR will return Sunday
afternoon through the end of the period under high pressure.


NEAR TERM: Gale warning until midnight. Winds are increasing and
the the seas are building rapidly this morning with gale
conditions now underway. After the gale, an SCA will be required
into Saturday morning.

SHORT TERM: SCA conditions may be met briefly on Sat morning with
winds gusting to near 25kts in wake of fropa. Seas and winds may
be marginal for SCA criteria Sat night with remainder of the
period remaining below small craft levels.


ME...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MEZ029-030.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 1 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ050>052.



Near Term...CB/MCW
Short Term...Farrar
Long Term...Farrar
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