Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 271938
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
338 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF
THE REGION SATURDAY AND A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH LATE SUNDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST THIS EVENING WITH SHOWERS ENDING.
THE HIGH BUILDS WITH CLEARING SKIES LATER THIS EVENING AND DRIER
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW LOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP TOWARDS THE MID TO UPPER 40S IN THE ALLAGASH.
ELSEWHERE MOSTLY LOWER 50S ARE ANTICIPATED. SOME PATCHY SHALLOW
FOG IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS DAWN...MOSTLY IN RIVER VALLEYS...BUT
THE ARRIVING AIR MASS IS SO DRY THAT ANY FOG WILL BE VERY SHALLOW
AND SHORT-LIVED. THE LOW HUMIDITY CONTINUES FOR FRIDAY WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS AND PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THE WARMER END OF THE RANGE
WILL BE FOUND TOWARDS THE COAST WITH THE OFFSHORE WINDS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIPRES RIDGE AXIS AT THE SFC WL INFLUENCE AREA`S WX FRI NGT. AT UPR
LVLS EXPECT A FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. SW FLOW CONTS
DRG THE NIGHTTIME HRS LEADING TO LOW TEMPS RIGHT ARND NORMAL. A WK
WV IS PROGGED TO ROTATE THRU IN ZONAL FLOW ACRS NRN ZONES LEADING TO
A BRIEF INCREASE IN CLD CVR ACRS THE CROWN OF MAINE.

RIDGE HOLDS DRG THE DAY ON SATURDAY KEEPING SHOWERS NORTH INTO
CANADA. SKIES WL CLD UP DRG THE AFTN WITH SOLAR INSOLATION BUT WITH
DRY AIR AND WARM TEMPS ALOFT PRESENT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING IN THE
WAY OF PCPN. TEMPS ACRS INTERIOR DOWNEAST WL APPCH 80F IN SW FLOW
WITH NRN ZONES IN THE M70S UNDER FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLD CVR.

SAT NGT STILL LOOKS TO BE DRY. ALL MED RANGE MODELS WITH EXCEPTION
OF GFS INDICATE DRY WX. FLOW ALOFT RMNS ZONAL WITH ANY LITTLE WV
POSSIBLY SPARKING OFF PCPN BUT AIRMASS LOOKS TOO DRY AT THIS TIME
TO WARRANT CHC POPS.

WK SFC BNDRY WL APPCH CWA ON SUNDAY WITH CHC POPS ACCOMPANYING IT
THRU. BEST FRCG LOOKS TO EXIST OVR NRN ZONES WITH DRY AIR FURTHER TO
THE SOUTH. MAX TEMPS ON SUN LOOK TO BE SIMILAR TO SAT UNDER SW
FLOW.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AREA WL BE AFFECTED BY NW FLOW EARLY IN THE LONG TERM WITH
UNSETTLED WX EXPECTED EARLY IN THE WEEK. RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS
IN MON NGT WITH DRY WX EXPECTED ON TUE. DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
CONVECTION POSSIBLE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK AS CWA RMNS IN WK NW
FLOW. TEMPS THRU THE PD WL AVERAGE ARND TO JUST SLIGHTLY ABV
NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. IT IS
POSSIBLE SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG MAY OCCUR...ESPECIALLY IN RIVER
VALLEYS...TOWARDS DAWN. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT SUFFICIENT FOR
INCLUSION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

SHORT TERM: VFR WILL PREVAIL THRU THE SHORT TERM. SHOWERS EXPECTED
OFF AN ON SUN AFTN, MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. THIS WILL LEAD TO
POTENTIAL BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOG HAS BEEN SWEPT EAST OF THE WATERS WITH THE DRIER
AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO RETURN DURING THE
PERIOD. SOME 3 TO 4 FOOT SE SWELL IS POSSIBLE INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...DIMINISHING FURTHER LATER TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$

NEAR TERM...MCW
SHORT TERM...FARRAR
LONG TERM...FARRAR
AVIATION...MCW/FARRAR
MARINE...MCW/FARRAR


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