Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
FXUS61 KCAR 300225
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1025 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016
A weak cold front will slowly move off the coast tonight. Low
pressure tracking along the front will pass south of the Gulf of
Maine late tonight. High pressure will build across the region
over the weekend.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
1030 PM Update:
Latest analysis showed cold front aligned right along the coast.
Areas of dense fog have set up along the coast w/a light se wind.
Fog looks like it will persist overnight into the morning hrs
w/the dense fog along the coast. Carried areas of fog for downeast
including Bangor, Bar Harbor into Machias. Will monitor this
region of possible Advisory if conditions continue to deteriorate.
Elsewhere, patchy fog w/skies starting to clear out. It will
cooler and drier n & w of the downeast and coast. Adjusted the
temps/dewpoints to the current conditions. Collaborated w/the
NERFC to pull back QPF as showers across Washington County have
moved out of that area.
A weak s/wv trof alf from SE QB will cross the region this eve.
Sct shwrs and tstms ovr msly Downeast ME ahead of this system will
will weaken and move E into NB prov this eve. Until then, we keep
enhanced small hail and hvy rnfl wording til 6 pm. Otherwise, clrg
skies will work NW to SE across the FA ovrngt as fair NW sfc pres
grad works even into Downeast ptns of the region. We kept the
mention of patchy vly fog for ptns of the region, but there may be
enough llvl dry advcn to negate any fog, spcly nrn ptns of the FA.
Aft slightly abv avg low temps, Sat should be pleasant, drier, and
a little cooler across the all of the region as Can sfc hi pres
ridges toward the region, with near normal hi temps.
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure will build in from the northwest Saturday Night
into Sunday then move to the east of the region late Sunday into
Monday. Showers are possible, especially in southwestern areas,
later Monday as high pressure weakens allowing moisture to move
up from the south.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure will strengthen over the northeast Tuesday Night
into Wednesday while at the same time a cold front will approach
Northern Maine. This will result in drying conditions across the
south while daytime showers are possible across the northern
portion of the State. Showers are expected to persist across the
Northern portion of Maine from Wednesday through Friday. A cold
front will then approach the State from the west later Friday.
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Mainly VFR tonight and Saturday, exceptions being brief
MVFR vsbys with tstms and heavier shwrs erly this eve ovr
downeast sites and patchy fog late tngt into erly Sat morn
ovr low rvr vly or bay TAF sites, spcly KBHB
SHORT TERM: VFR conditions are expected Sunday. MVFR conditions
are possible Monday. MVFR conditions are possible KBGR and KBHB
Monday Night. MVFR conditions are possible KFVE, KCAR, KPQI, and
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will remain well below SCA thresholds
tngt and Sat. Primary short 5 sec pd wvs late this aftn
transition to longer 8 to 9 sec swell this eve as sfc winds become
off shore behind a weak cold front, then shorten to 7 sec by late
Sat aftn as winds become lgt and vrbl and even slightly on shore.
Kept within 80 to 90 percent of WW3 wv guidance for fcst wv hts.
SHORT TERM: Will use the NAM12 for sustained winds Saturday Night
through Tuesday then transition to the Super Blend Winds. For
Waves: Have initialized the grids with the Near Shore Wave Model
(NWPS) through Tuesday then transition to the Wave Watch III. With
light winds (under 10 knots) expected through Wednesday, the
primary wave system will be long period swell. Since NWPS boundary
conditions conditions (Wave Watch III), continue to exhibit a
slightly high bias will lower combined wave heights by one foot