Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 260130
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
930 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain southeast of the region through
tonight. A cold front will cross the region Friday afternoon.
High pressure will build across the region Saturday then move to
the east Sunday. Another cold front will approach the area Sunday
night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
9:30 PM Update...A very warm and muggy night more typical of
southern New England in mid-summer than northern and eastern Maine
in late August. Inland temperatures remain in the 70s as of 9 PM
with dew points from 65-70F. A few showers continue to move across
mainly Piscataquis...northern Penobscot...and eastern Aroostook
Counties. It will remain muggy overnight with a few showers and
some patchy fog. Only minor tweaks to the ongoing forecast based
on the latest observations, radar, and near term model trends.

Previous discussion...
CWA rmns in fairly benign sw flow as cdfnt rmns stagnant acrs Quebec
tonight with hipres ovr the Atlantic. Multiple wk wvs wl be
rotating thru aloft but vry little to pin any more than about 30
pops on at this point. Still expecting just an isold thunder
threat and wl keep mention in thru 02z this evng bfr airmass
stabilizes.

Low-lvl moisture wl be drawn in on southerly flow and expect patchy
fog to dvlp acrs the entire area by 06z. Areas of fog expected
ovr the waters aft 09z and continuing thru most of the day in
humid airmass. Airmass wl rmn soupy tonight with mins only
dropping into the m60s at all locations.

Front wl rmn north of CWA tonight bfr finally being shoved south
Fri morning as H5 wv currently dropping thru wrn Ontario drives a
sfc low into Newfoundland, propelling it south. Front progged to
mv thru the area drg the aftn with plenty of instability but
little moisture to work with. Hv opted to go with 20-40 pops along
the front tomorrow and isold thunder.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The cold front will exit the Down East region Friday evening with
lower humidity working its way southward through the night. Some
patchy fog is possible along the coast early in the evening. Will
go for a mostly sunny day on Saturday. The only concern would be
some stratocu fields in Aroostook County in the NW flow. Highs on
Saturday will be in the mid 70s north and upper 70s to lower 80s
for Bangor and Down East. Humidity will be much lower on Saturday
and continue to be reasonable on Sunday. Expect a relatively cool
night Saturday night with lows in the upper 40s north and low to
mid 50s south. Would go for lower temps, but am concerned about
increasing cirrus later in the night ahead of the next system. The
next system has sped up in the latest guidance packages and have
introduced chance pops in the northwestern portion of the forecast
area for the afternoon. Also increased cloud cover for most of the
area Sunday to the extent that mostly cloudy skies are now
forecast in northern zones.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The frontal system for Sunday night and Monday morning looks a
little stronger than previously with a reasonable chance of
rainfall totaling a quarter to a half inch for much of the area.
Most of the precip will occur Sunday night and the cold front will
ease through the area Monday with some additional shower activity.
It is possible a few thunderstorms could occur Monday afternoon,
but confidence is not high enough to specify them in the forecast
at this time. High pressure and lower humidity return to the
forecast Monday night into Tuesday night. A weak cold front will
arrive Wednesday morning with little precipitation, but a good
chance of more fall-like temps and humidity for Wednesday night
into Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR at all terminals through 06z before MVFR and
eventually IFR restrictions work in as southerly flow draws low
level moisture northward. Expect improvement to VFR after 15z Fri.

SHORT TERM: VFR through Sunday evening with the exception of
patchy shallow fog in valleys later Saturday night. IFR cigs in
rain are expected Sunday night into Monday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA for hazardous seas is in effect tonight into Fri
afternoon for the outer waters. The seas are running 3 to 4 feet
on the coastal waters late this evening and will build to around
5 feet in southerly swell overnight. Areas of fog are expected
across the waters in the morning.

SHORT TERM: Fog is expected to linger into Friday evening before
dissipating. Some areas of fog may return Sunday night. Seas may
approach 5 ft later Monday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Dew points remain in the upper 60s at Caribou as of 9 PM. Today
was the 47th day this year with a dew point of 60F or higher at
Caribou.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas from 2 AM to 2 PM EDT
     Friday for ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

Near Term...CB/Farrar
Short Term...MCW
Long Term...MCW
Aviation...CB/Farrar/MCW
Marine...CB/Farrar/MCW
Climate...CB



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