Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 252027

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
227 PM CST Sat Feb 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 216 PM CST Sat Feb 25 2017

High pressure is currently situated over central Oklahoma, giving us
southwesterly winds at the surface. Other than a scattered midlevel
and high clouds, the remainder of this afternoon and evening
should be quiet as we remain in zonal flow aloft.

On Sunday morning, a relatively weak wave will push through the
area, but models are continuing to indicate that all the isentropic
lift and associated precipitation should stay southeast of our
forecast area. Otherwise, RH values will be 20-25% in in our
Kansas counties on Sunday, but winds currently look light enough
to avoid critical fire weather thresholds.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 216 PM CST Sat Feb 25 2017

The forecast becomes a little more complicated starting Sunday night
into Monday morning. Models are starting to hint at a chance for
stratus/fog Monday morning as more moisture advects into the area
due to increased troughing in the western CONUS. The SREF also
showing respectable probabilities for fog Monday morning, but
increasing winds will also hinder its development. Overall, I
wouldn`t be surprised if we end up seeing some develop, but I
didn`t feel confident enough to include now. Later in the day, the
NAM and to a lesser extent the ECMWF actually develop a few
hundredths of QPF as well into the afternoon, so I left a slight
chance for rain in during that period.

Monday night into Tuesday morning, a piece of energy ahead of the
main trough may bring some light precipitation to northern parts of
the area. This feature trended downward somewhat with the 12z
models, and any precipitation should be very light. Nevertheless, I`ve
included a slight chance of freezing rain, sleet, and snow for
northern parts of the CWA, with little to no accumulation.

The next precipitation chance occurs Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning as the main trough moves into the area. Models are
indicating the best chances will be across the southeastern half
of the CWA, especially into KS. Again, we will be dealing with
mixed precipitation types, with soundings currently indicating
that precipitation will start as rain Tuesday evening, then change
over to snow into the overnight.

Wednesday through Friday looks relatively quiet with the entire
region in northwesterly flow aloft. Temperatures will gradually
moderate through this period, and could reach the upper 50s again
by Friday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1056 AM CST Sat Feb 25 2017

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Southwest winds
expected this afternoon with only a few mid to high level clouds.

Tonight, winds will gradually shift more westerly as a midlevel
wave moves through the area. We will have to monitor the potential
for LLWS after midnight as this moves through, but my confidence
isn`t high enough to include it at this point.




SHORT TERM...Mangels
LONG TERM...Mangels
AVIATION...Mangels is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.