Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 071014
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
514 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

THE SHORT TERM PERIODS WILL BE QUIET WEATHER WISE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS
ALOFT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN AT THE SURFACE. THE AIRMASS
CHANGE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHICH CROSSED THE PLAINS ON MONDAY IS
ROUGHLY 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING ONTO THE PLAINS
BEING NEARLY TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS STRONGER THAN WHAT WE
NORMALLY SEE IN EARLY JULY. WHAT THIS MEANS IS THAT WE WILL MAKE
THE SWITCH TO COOLER...DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS BELOW NORMAL BOTH
FOR HIGHS TODAY AND LOWS TONIGHT. FOR THE AFTERNOON...TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO REACH THE 70S AND WILL RUN NEARLY 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AND HEADING INTO TONIGHT...LOWS
AVERAGING IN THE 50S WILL ALSO BE ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

QUITE A BIT OF SMOKE...WHICH ORIGINATED FROM FIRES IN
CANADA...REACHED OUR REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
MONDAY AND VISIBILITIES OVERNIGHT DROPPED AS LOW AS 2 TO 4 MILES.
VSBYS ARE BEGINNING TO IMPROVE ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST ZONE AND
EXPECT CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT AS THE DAY GOES ON...BUT WILL
MAINTAIN MENTION IN FORECAST UNTIL SMOKE CLEARS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WEAK QUASI-ZONAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL BE
NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS TO START THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD
AT 12Z WEDNESDAY. THIS WEAK QUASI-ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE MOVES FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS INTO THE SOUTHWEST.

AN OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA SHOULD PROMOTE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR
AREA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...AND SUCH HAS BEEN PRESENTED IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MORE SO INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...THE AXIS OF A ~30KT JET STREAK JUST ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY-LAYER IS EXPECTED TO PROMOTE SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE INTO OUR FAR WEST/SOUTHWESTERN CWA DURING THE PRE-
DAWN HOURS ON THURSDAY. GIVEN THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH 20-50% POPS
ACROSS OUR WEST/SOUTHWEST 06-12Z THURSDAY. DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS EARLY MORNING CONVECTION ACROSS OUR
WEST/SOUTHWEST WILL SUSTAIN ITSELF AND SPREAD EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE CWA UNTIL THE LOW LEVEL JET AXIS TRULY DIMINISHES A COUPLE HOURS
AFTER SUNRISE. CONVECTION MIGHT OTHERWISE COMPLETELY DIE OUT BY LATE
MORNING...BUT THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC PERTURBATION
COULD THEN HELP SUSTAIN SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY. GIVEN THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH 40-60% POPS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. THE PASSAGE OF THIS
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC PERTURBATION WILL LIKELY BRING AN END TO THE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR NORTH/NORTHWESTERN CWA THURSDAY EVENING
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTS YET ANOTHER JET
STREAK JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PROMOTE ADDITIONAL CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF KANSAS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
NEBRASKA...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF OUR CWA...THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. GIVEN THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH 40-60% POPS ACROSS
ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING...WITH POPS QUICKLY TAPERING OFF FARTHER NORTHWEST.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE PASSAGE OF MULTIPLE UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC PERTURBATIONS WILL PROMOTE ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS VARIOUS PORTIONS OF THE CWA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND AGAIN NEXT MONDAY. POPS REMAIN INTACT FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A RESULT.

A COOLER BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE PROMOTING BELOW-
NORMAL TEMPERATURE READINGS ON THURSDAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE 70S TO NEAR 80 CURRENTLY FORECAST. INCREASINGLY SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND RESULTANT THERMAL ADVECTION THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS THEN
EXPECTED TO PROMOTE A WARMING TREND ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE 80S AND
90S FOR THE MOST PART. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WILL MARK THE COOL POINT DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH LOWS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 60S AND PERHAPS LOW 70S
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 510 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

VISIBILITIES HAVE RANGED FROM 3 TO 5 MILES OVERNIGHT...REDUCED DUE
TO SMOKE ORIGINATING FROM WILD FIRES IN CANADA. VISIBLITIES ARE
FORECAST TO IMPROVE FURTHER AROUND MID MORNING. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL INFLUENCE OUR WX TODAY WITH COOLER...DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAILING AND WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT. NORTHERLY WIND SPEEDS WILL
TRANSITION SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST. CLOUD
COVER WILL BE LIMITED DURING THE DAY THEN VFR CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
TONIGHT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...FAY


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