Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 272324

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
624 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

The weather remains pretty quiet with an unseasonally warm airmass
in place across the Central Plains under the influence of an upper
ridge of high pressure. The ridge axis will deamplify some on Friday
as a shortwave trough translates across the Northern Plains with
negligible effect for our area.

At the surface, a high pressure ridge will exit east of the Missouri
River tonight while a low pressure trough deepens along the high
plains. In the increasing southerly low level flow, moisture will
be drawn north heading into tonight with a moisture axis with
surface dewpoints in the mid 50s expected to align across our
southeast zones by Friday morning. Along this area of moisture,
models suggest the potential for this area to be in or on the edge
of stratus and/or fog and will need to monitor trends of this.

A surface trough axis edges into our western zones Friday
afternoon, scouring moisture eastward. Very warm temperatures in
the low/mid 80s are forecast for our western zones which are a
solid 20 to 25 degrees above normal highs which are around 60
degrees this time of year. Farther east have kept temps closer to
80 for highs given uncertainty in cloud cover.

Friday afternoon looks to be safe from fire weather concerns despite
the warm temperatures. Where winds are stronger in the east,
dewpoints and relative humidity values will be higher while to the
west where temperatures will be warmer and relative humidity values
lower, wind speeds will not be as strong due to proximity of the
surface trough.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

The above normal temperatures will carry through the weekend and
into next week, while some chance for precipitation returns late
Wednesday into Thursday.

A cold frontal boundary associated with a shortwave trough will
cross our region Saturday, bringing a wind shift to the north with
cool air advecting south thru the day. Daytime temps will drop back
to the 60s and 70s for highs in the cooler airmass and varying
low cloud cover. High pressure builds east along the Missouri
River behind the front and slides east into the upper midwest on
Sunday. Models suggest the potential for stratus along the ridge
axis Saturday night with the low clouds possibly lingering in our
south on Sunday and will need to monitor for any fog or impact of
clouds on temperatures.

Monday/Halloween is shaping up to be fairly windy and warm with
concerns for fire weather conditions. Temps will be warm to start
the day with strong lowlevel in place ahead of a surface
trough/cold front which moves through by midday. Strong westerly
downslope winds and a dry airmass will lead to warm afternoon
temps in the 70s, and the boundary will scour moisture with dps
and low relative humidity values dropping. The combination of the
gusty winds/low humidity will be favorable for fire weather
conditions and will need to monitor trends of this as we get

Chances for showers and thunderstorms return as early as late
Wednesday but favor more so the Thursday (day 7) time frame as an
upper trough lifts out from the southwest CONUS. It`s hard to get
real excited about rain chances this far out especially given
model differences. The GFS lifts the system across our region
while the ECMWF favors a southern plains event.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 616 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

The main aviation forecast concern is low level wind shear during
the overnight hours tonight. Both KEAR/KGRI will be impacted with
low level wind shear through the early morning hours. Surface
winds will be southerly overnight before becoming more
southwesterly during the day Friday. There will be some high
cirrus, but significant cloud cover and ceilings are not
anticipated. VFR conditions prevail.




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