Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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371
FXUS63 KGID 290825
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
325 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Summary:

Off and on rain will continue across the entire area
today into tonight. The heaviest is expected occur late this
morning through the afternoon and early evening.

Details:

Currently, the regional radar mosaic shows a large "hole"
in the rain in and just SW of the CWA. Short-term models
gradually fill in this feature this morning, although I think that
it will take quite some time to do so. Models start to lift a
cohesive band of rain into the area by mid to late morning which
is co-located with stronger H500 vorticity advection and
increasing deep-level moisture.

The deepest moisture will be in the southeast half of the CWA
and will be quite slow to move northward. As a result, locations
like Ord and Lexington could see significant dry time this morning
into the early afternoon. This will also set up a a nice gradient
in the precipitation totals across the area. Totals of 1 to 2" are
possible in spots like Beloit and Hebron, decreasing to only a
tenth or two in the north and western parts of the CWA.

An isolated thunderstorm or two remains possible this afternoon
southeast of a line from Stockton, KS to Hebron, NE, but the deep
moisture should limit instability enough that that it shouldn`t be
more than a few rumbles of thunder.

Precipitation will begin to wind down tonight as the upper level
low slowly exits the area to the east. It is possible that portions
of the area see a light mix of rain and snow tonight as
temperatures at the surface and aloft begin to fall. I went ahead
and included a mention of rain/snow showers after midnight
tonight for areas west of a line from Holdrege to Greeley. No
accumulation is expected, so impact should be minimal.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Lingering rain showers on the back side of an upper low pressure
system Thursday will be winding down from west to east as the system
tracks from northeast Oklahoma into southern Missouri. Low clouds
look to hold through the day with perhaps just the far west
periphery of our area potentially breaking out from the low cloud
deck. Just not looking for much of a rise in temperatures due to the
extensive cloud cover and highs in the 40s to near 50 degrees look
on track.

Thursday night will see rising heights aloft/shortwave ridging in
between upper low pressure systems to the west and east. At the
surface, a ridge axis builds south from the Dakotas. Models suggest
stratus will fill back in and we could see a round of fog
development and potentially drizzle late Thursday night into Friday
morning and this will be something to keep an eye on.

The next chance of rain starts moving in late Friday through
Saturday ahead of an upper low pressure system moving out of the
south central Rockies. The track of this next system is trending
south into the southern plains states with rain ending towards the
Sunday time frame. As the southern low begins to lift north on
Monday, our eastern zones may see a brief period of precipitation on
the back side of the system. In a progressive pattern, a northern
plains trough may bring another round of rain to our region into the
Tuesday time frame. Overall, there are several opportunities for
rain during the extended periods.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1219 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Ceilings have been gradually decreasing to the southwest where
precipitation is currently lighter. In fact, the IFR cigs are
mainly located in areas with little to no rain. The expectation is
that the current VFR cigs at KGRI fall into the MVFR and possibly
into IFR by morning.

Strong northeasterly winds should help mix out ceilings into MVFR
range tomorrow morning, although precipitation will continue to
cause visibility restriction varying between 3 and 5 miles
depending on the intensity. Expect ceilings to lower again
tomorrow night as precipitation gradually diminishes in intensity.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mangels
LONG TERM...Fay
AVIATION...Mangels



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