Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 241126
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
626 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

Minimal concerns throughout the day today. Surface high pressure
will slide eastward causing winds to become southerly around
10-15mph with higher gusts. Along with the return of southerly
flow, temperatures will generally be a few degrees warmer than
Sunday with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s. Overall a fairly
typical late July day.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 258 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

The Main Story: Tue will be the hottest day of the week. Sct tstms
at times Tue night thru Wed night. Then an interruption to the
summertime heat/humidity. Refreshingly cooler and less humid Thu-
Fri.

Aloft: A ridge will be over the Cntrl USA Tue with a potent
shortwave trof over the Canadian Prairies. This trof will moving E
across Srn Canada. The ridge/subtropical high will retrograde into
the Wrn USA this week with significant amplification of the
Westerlies occur. This will occur from the influence of a trof
developing over the NE Pac.

Surface: A Canadian cool front (the strongest we`ve seen since the
beginning of July) will bisect the Nrn Plns Tue. This front will
drop S thru the CWA Wed with Canadian high pres building in Thu and
expanding into the rgn Fri/Sat and remaining nearby Sun.

Sensible wx details...

Rain: Model consensus indicates that quite a bit of tstm activity
will develop from SD thru the Neb Panhandle into NE CO Tue
afternoon. The remnants of some of this activity could move into S-
cntrl Neb Tue night and even into Wed AM. More sct tstms will refire
by 4 PM and last into the night...gradually sinking S and E over
time.

None of the tstm activity Tue night will be svr given nocturnally
stable boundary layer and diminishing overall instability.

Mid-lvl lapse rates will be poor Wed-Wed night. So MLCAPE/MUCAPE
will not be more than 1500 J/kg within a narrow ribbon. However
...directional shear in the post-frontal environment will result in
30 kts of deep layer shear. This will be more than sufficient for
some svr tstms.

There will be no help aloft to aid in large-scale lift. It will all
hinge on forced ascent from the frontal surface and/or 850-700 mb
FGEN.

The mention of tstms re-enters the fcst Fri eve. This is probably
overdone. Upslope flow and terrain-induced circulations will
probably result in isolated tstm development far to the W. In NW
flow the past couple GFS/EC runs are trying to bring some of this
activity into the CWA. That seems unlikely given that this
activity will be diurnally driven and has a good chance of
dissipating before it reaches the CWA.

Temps: Tue will be the hottest and most humid day of the wk.
Increased dwpts above fcst initialization over S-cntrl Neb...and
they probably could be increased more. The Heat Index will be in the
low 100s in the afternoon/eve. As high as dwpts have been lately...
it`s not out of the realm of possibility that we might need a one-
day Heat Advisory.

Wed will be the transition day. Hottest temps over N-cntrl KS. Then
a significant air mass change will take place Thu-Sat behind the
front. This will be the first decent Canadian cool front to move
thru here since early July.

The entire CWA will see highs in the 80s Thu-Fri...with low 80s very
possible N of Hwy 6. Highs in the 80s could even cont into Sat...
even in N-cntrl KS. These expectations are not fully reflected in
the fcst just yet. Believe our fcst is still a little too warm Fri-
Sat.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 12Z Tuesday)
Issued at 626 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

VFR conditions to prevail. Have removed the MVFR visibility tempo
group with this issuance, if patchy fog does develop an amendment
will be needed. Otherwise, winds will become more southerly
throughout the day and increase in speed. Low level wind shear
will be a concern tonight at both terminals.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Billings Wright
LONG TERM...Kelley
AVIATION...Billings Wright


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