Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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114
FXUS63 KGID 172333
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
533 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 336 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2017

What a change a day can make, our storm system has exited the
region and has been replaced with full sunshine and warmer
temperatures. The ice has quickly been melting and most if not all
of the ice will be gone by tonight. A weak cut off upper level low
will track northeast into our forecast area on Wednesday, but no
precipitation is expected with this system. We are really only
expecting an increase in mid to high level clouds as this upper
low tracks overhead. The air aloft will remain mild and thus
expect highs on Wednesday to also continue to be mild and in the
40s.

Can not rule out the slight chance of fog tonight or early
Wednesday morning due to the moist ground from the recent
precipitation. However, am not seeing enough of a fog signal in
the HRRR, RAP, or SREF to include it in the forecast at this time.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 336 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2017

The big story will be the mild airmass that will likely keep
temperatures above normal through next Monday. There will be some
small precipitation chances Thursday night through Saturday
morning with the next little upper low that appears will be
tracking across Nebraska. However, there will not be much in the
way of moisture with this system and temperatures aloft at 850mb appear
to be warm. Therefore, only light precipitation is expected and it
should primarily be rain. We can not rule out a little light
freezing drizzle or light freezing rain when sfc temperatures are
at their coolest Thursday night and Friday night, but overall it
seems like light rain if anything will be the predominate
precipitation type. End of the week precipitation if any would
likely be only a few hundredths to perhaps some localized 0.10
inch amounts.

Weekend: A more substantial storm system appears likely to head
well south of our forecast area taking rain to primarily southern
KS, OK, and perhaps as far south as TX. We do have a slight chance
of light precipitation in our far southeastern KS counties given
to us by the forecast blender, but honestly this seems unlikely
with any precipitation more likely being entirely south of our
forecast area.

Tuesday: Will focus on this day as both the GFS and ECMWF have
shown some consistency in bringing a cold wintry storm system
into portions of Nebraska and Kansas. However, being 7 days out
there is still a lot of uncertainty indicated by the ensemble
forecasts and thus have lowered precipitation chances below the
forecast blender during this time frame.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 523 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2017

VFR conditions will prevail at both terminals for the next 24
hours with light southwesterly winds and mainly cloud free skies.
Could see winds increase to near or just above 10 kts tomorrow
afternoon as the pressure gradient tightens just a bit, so
introduced a group for this, but otherwise, nothing significant to
speak of.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wesely
LONG TERM...Wesely
AVIATION...Rossi



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