Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 210014
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
614 PM CST Mon Nov 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 228 PM CST Mon Nov 20 2017

Unseasonably warm temperatures are being observed across the
entire forecast area this afternoon. These above normal
temperatures are occurring ahead of an approaching cold
front...expected to cross the local forecast area during the
overnight hours tonight and through the early morning hours
Tuesday. With these warm temperatures and dry airmass in
place...breezy west to southwesterly winds are resulting in near
critical fire weather conditions this afternoon. These elevated
fire weather conditions are expected to improve over the next
couple of hours...with a relative mild evening in store for much
of the local area. Additional information on fire weather concerns
can be found in the fire weather section below.

For Tuesday...expect an abrupt shift in winds towards daybreak as
the aforementioned cold front makes its way across the local area.
The breezy northerly winds will be accompanied by a return to
below normal temperatures tomorrow afternoon...making for a rather
brisk day across the local area. In addition...as detailed by the
previous shift...models are indicating some light precipitation
will be possible across much of south central Nebraska with the
passage of this front during the early morning hours...but with
the very dry airmass at the surface...cannot imagine much more
than a few flurries or sprinkles around daybreak. Because of
this...did add the mention of both through mid morning...with dry
and sunny conditions anticipated for the afternoon hours.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 228 PM CST Mon Nov 20 2017

Above normal temperatures and dry conditions are expected through
the extended periods. Expect high pressure aloft to give way to a
weak cold front late Friday into Saturday...which will help to
knock temperatures back down closer to seasonal norms over the
upcoming weekend. Ahead of this front...however...expect well
above normal temperatures to persist through Friday...when
widespread temperatures near 70 will be possible. For now...it
appears record high temperatures will likely stand for
Friday...but this will be something to watch as both Grand Island
and Hastings record high temperature for the 24th of November is
72 degrees. Just past the current scope of the extended...models
diverge significantly...and will need to monitor the development
and progression of a west coast storm towards the middle of next
week to see if we might be able to finally realize a little
precipitation locally.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Tuesday)
Issued at 558 PM CST Mon Nov 20 2017

VFR conditions are expected to continue throughout the forecast
valid period. There will continue to be scattered to broken high
clouds. The wind after becoming light tonight will be rather
breezy out of the north on Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 228 PM CST Mon Nov 20 2017

Near to Critical Fire Weather conditions will continue across
areas generally along and west of a line from Ord Nebraska to
Stockton Kansas through the late afternoon hours. While RH values
are below the critical threshold across much of the region this
afternoon...winds are the limiting factor with only a few spots
sporadically reaching critical wind or wind gust criteria. As a
result...held off on a headline this afternoon...but conditions
will likely remain close...and possibly temporarily exceed
critical thresholds...through about 5 PM CST.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Rossi
LONG TERM...Rossi
AVIATION...Wesely
FIRE WEATHER...Rossi


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