Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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671
FXUS65 KGJT 300314
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
914 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 905 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

CONVECTIVE NATURE OF SHOWERS DIMINISHING WITH ONLY SCATTERED LIGHT
ACTIVITY EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. SO HAVE ALLOWED THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES TO EXPIRE AS OF 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING.
HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POP GRIDS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO FIT
CURRENT TRENDS AND EXPECTED CONDS BASED ON LATEST HRRR AND RAP
RUNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

THE CENTER OF THE CLOSED LOW HAS BEEN TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A PIECE OF MOIST ENERGY
HAS BEEN SPINNING CCW ACROSS THE CENTRAL COLORADO MOUNTAINS
BRINGING STEADY PRECIPITATION TO THE GUNNISON BASIN...ROARING FORK
VALLEY...AND NOW SPREADING INTO THE YAMPA VALLEY. THIS MOISTURE IS
NOT EXPECTED TO GET TOO FAR PAST THE GRAND MESA AND TAVAPUTS
PLATEAU IN WESTERN COLORADO THIS EVENING...AND IS EXPECTED TO
TAPER OFF TONIGHT.

AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS EAST OF COLORADO ON SATURDAY...EXPECT FEWER
SHOWERS THAN TODAY...MAINLY DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. BREEZY NORTH TO
NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR
CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS SIGNIFICANT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ALIGNS WITH H7 WINDS OF 15-20 KNOTS.

THEN THE NEXT UPPER LOW OF WHICH MODELS ARE IN GOOD GENERAL
AGREEMENT FOR TIMING AND INTENSITY...WILL BE SPREADING INCREASING
MOISTURE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. THE BULK OF
PRECIP BY SUNRISE SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE SAN JUAN MTNS AND ABAJO MTNS
SOUTHWARD. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN RATHER HIGH...GENERALLY AT OR
ABOVE 8000 FEET MSL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE UPPER LOW CENTER IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE FOUR CORNERS BY
MIDDAY SUNDAY...THEN MEANDER NORTHEASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT AND BECOME
DIFFUSE ON MONDAY...WITH OUR CWA REMAINING UNDER A COL AREA INTO
TUESDAY. EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY
...WITH A DECREASE IN QPF MOST AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A
NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ACROSS OUR ENTIRE
CWA ON TUESDAY...WITH MAX TEMPERATURES APPROACHING NORMALS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A DRIER AIRMASS AND A CONTINUED WARMING
TREND AS H7 TEMPERATURES WARM ABOUT 4 DEGREES C HIGHER THAN
TUESDAY. EXPECT MAX TEMPERATURES THURSDAY TO BE 6 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

FRIDAY...
ANOTHER UPPER LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND TO CA AND
APPROACH OUR AREA ONCE AGAIN BY LATE FRIDAY. LIKELY TO
EXPERIENCE BREEZY PREFRONTAL WINDS ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO THURSDAY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
SOME CONVECTION BEGINS TO DEVELOP BY LATER AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 905 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO
AND EASTERN UTAH THROUGH SATURDAY. MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
OBSCURED...ESPECIALLY IN THE VCNTY OF SHOWERS WITH AREAS OF IFR
AND MVFR CIGS EXPECTED. SOME IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED BY LATE SATURDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES BACK INTO THE AREA
SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JDC
SHORT TERM...JAM/JRP
LONG TERM...JRP
AVIATION...JDC



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