Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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000
FXUS64 KHUN 021847
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
147 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SYMMETRICAL UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE
TN PORTION OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. VARIOUS SPOKES OF VORTICITY ARE
ROTATING AROUND THIS GYRE. AT THE SFC, A COLD FRONT WAS SITTING JUST
SE OF THE I-59 CORRIDOR WHERE CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING.
MORE STABLE AIR IS FILTERING SE BEHIND THE FRONT. THUS, WILL LIKELY
REMOVE TS FROM THE EVENING FORECAST. EXTENSIVE SC FIELD IS LOCATED
BEHIND THE FRONT WHERE TEMPS ARE STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 60S
OVER WESTERN/MIDDLE TN AND L-M70S IN SRN TN AND NWRN AL. WOULD EXPECT
THESE CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE SOME FROM WEST TO EAST WITH INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE W OF THE LOW. HOWEVER, THE LOW IS PROGGED TO DROP MORE S
THAN EAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, SO CLOUD TRENDS ARE A TOUGH CALL.
EXPECT A BIT MORE SUNSHINE ON WEDNESDAY TO ALLOW FOR DAYTIME HEATING
TO ACTIVATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG OUR HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF
I-65.  HAVE NOT REALLY CHANGED MUCH OF THE DAY TO DAY FORECAST THRU
FRIDAY IN THIS REGARD. EXPECT AT LEAST PATCHY NIGHTTIME FOG AND
ISOLD-SCT AFTERNOON DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA PSBL ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPS SSEWD BY FRIDAY, AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY. SO,
WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHCS OF SHRA/TSRA THESE DAYS AS WELL.

SUGGESTED MODEL BLENDS SEEM TO SIDE WITH THE COOLER GFS ENSEMBLE
AVGS AND OPERATIONAL ECMWF THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WHICH SEEMS
APPROPRIATE GIVEN THE SHORTWAVES AND POTENTIAL CLOUDS/PRECIP. THE
OPERATIONAL GFS IS FORECASTING L90S. WILL WATCH THESE TRENDS OVER THE
COMING DAYS WITH A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SW-SRN U.S.
AND W-NWLY FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST, GREAT LAKES, EXTENDING INTO
THE TN VALLEY. WE WILL BE ON THE SRN FRINGES OF THIS FLOW REGIME,
RESULTING IN SOME DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODEL TEMPS AND PRECIP
FORECASTS AND LOWER FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1214 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 03/02Z AS AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES
TO SPIN OVER THE REGION. ANTECEDENT LOW CLOUDS SHOULD DROP TO MVFR
(AND POSSIBLY IFR) AFTER 03/03Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AS THE UPPER LOW MEANDERS AROUND THE REGION. THE FURTHER
DROP TO IFR CIGS IS POSSIBLE BTWN 03/08Z-03/12Z. THERE COULD BE SOME
BREAKS AND LIFTING OF CLOUDS LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT IS DIFFICULT TO
TIME AND LOCATE THE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER AFTER 03/15Z.

SL.77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    58  83  64  84 /  10  20  10  20
SHOALS        59  81  62  85 /  10  10  10  20
VINEMONT      59  80  62  84 /  10  20  10  20
FAYETTEVILLE  59  80  60  82 /  10  20  20  30
ALBERTVILLE   59  81  62  83 /  20  30  20  30
FORT PAYNE    59  80  61  82 /  20  30  20  30

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.


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