Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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000
FXUS64 KHUN 112350 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
550 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 327 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/
SUNNY SKIES BUT COOL CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON...COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. A SOUTHWARD PUSH AROUND THIS RIDGE AND A
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TRYING TO SETUP ACROSS THE GULF REGION WAS
DELINEATED BY A FRONT BOUNDARY SOUTH OF HERE...THAT EXTENDED IN A
WEST TO EAST MANNER FROM NE TEXAS TO SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA. MID
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ACROSS THIS REGION WERE ONLY IN THE 50S
(MOSTLY LOWER 50S)...WITH NE WINDS OF 5-10 MPH.

A LARGER SCALE PATTERN OF RIDGING OUT WEST...AND TROUGHING EAST
CONTINUED ACROSS THE GREATER NORTH AMERICAN DOMAIN. A LARGE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN CANADA CONTINUED TO PRODUCE LARGE
SCALE TROUGHING ALONG THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. ACROSS THE NE
PACIFIC WEST OF THE RIDGE...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WAS TRAVELING TO THE
EAST NEAR 35N130W. THIS FEATURE WILL HELP PLAY A ROLE IN EARLY NEXT
WEEKS WEATHER HERE.

CURRENTLY...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS FORMING ON THE FRONT OVER
TEXAS. THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON OUR SENSIBLE
WEATHER...AS IT GENERALLY MOISTURE STARVED...AND WILL BE PUSHED TO
THE SOUTH BY ANOTHER COLD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE HEADING SOUTHWARD
NORTH OF THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. THIS HIGH WILL BRING DRY BUT VERY
COLD CONDITIONS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ANOTHER NEAR SEASONABLE DAY
WILL END THE WORK WEEK TOMORROW...BUT SATURDAY WILL BE NOTABLY
COLDER WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S AREA WIDE. SOME OF THE COLDER SPOTS
IN OUR SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE COUNTIES WILL STRUGGLE TO 30. A
BRISK NW WIND WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
TEENS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON SUN
WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT COMPARED TO SAT...BUT ONLY INTO THE 40S.

THE ABOVE NOTED SYSTEM OUT WEST WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS AND A CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION FOR WASHINGTONS BIRTHDAY MONDAY. SAY PRECIP RATHER
THAN RAIN...AS COLD AIR CAN BE SLOW TO MODERATE...ESPECIALLY ON THE
HEELS OF SUCH AN EARLIER COLD SNAP. THAT BEING SAID...HAVE RAIN OVER
NW ALABAMA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON BECOMING A WINTRY MIX AS THE PRECIP
SHIELD OVERSPREADS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. WHILE THIS IS
OCCURRING...STRONG/WARM OVERUNNNING ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL ENHANCE
PRECIP RATES MAINLY TO OUR WEST. THE PRECIP SHOULD STAY A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW...BUT BRIEF SLEET CANNOT BE RULED OUT. IN THE COLDER
SPOTS OF NE ALABAMA AND ADJACENT TENNESSEE...A BOUT OF FREEZING RAIN
IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

THIS FAR OUR...VERY TOUGH WITH THE USUAL MODEL DISAGREEMENTS AND
UNCERTAINTY TO GO WITH WINTRY PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS. BUT LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS DO LOOK POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR COLDER NE ALABAMA AND
TENNESSEE SPOTS. THE MIX OF WINTRY WEATHER SHOULD BECOME ALL RAIN BY
LATE MONDAY MORNING...AS THE STORM SYSTEM GATHERS STRENGTH AND HEADS
TO THE EAST. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS COME AROUND TO THE OLDER GFS
TREND...WITH A SURFACE LOW FORMING OVER THE MID SOUTH...THEN
PROGRESSING IT EASTWARD ACROSS THIS AREA LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY.
AS THE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST...ANOTHER BRIEF WINTRY MIX COULD
AFFECT THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS IT ENDS.

A DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE ONCE
AGAIN RETURNS. THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS LARGE DISAGREEMENTS
TEMPERATURE WISE FOR THE MID WEEK AND BEYOND. STAYED CLOSER TO THE
COLDER GFS IN THE 50S...RATHER THAN THE ECMWF HINTING AT MID/UPPER
60S BY NEXT THURSDAY. COLD AIR FROM PAST EXPERIENCE MOST OF THE TIME
TAKES A WHILE TO MODIFY.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE TN/OH VALLEY
REGIONS...VFR CONDS ARE XPCTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUD COVER MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST STATES WILL BEGIN TO
SPREAD OVER THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO FRI.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.


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