Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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FXUS64 KHUN 261746 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1246 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

For 18Z TAFs.


 (Issued 1039 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016)
Looking at mesoscale model guidance and observations/trends, it looks
as though two primary initiation points for showers/storms would be
the focus for activity today. (1 - Weak convergence boundary from
Ripley south to Kosciusko in Mississippi   2 - Convective
activity developing along an outflow boundary from showers and
thunderstorm activity developing over eastern Missouri)

In between, over Northern Alabama and Southern Middle Tennessee,
mesoscale models are similar keeping fairly strong subsidence in
place in the lower levels of the atmosphere until later this
afternoon. Therefore, not expecting much development with any
precipitation until after 20Z when some positive omega values
develop. This activity should only be isolated and in northwestern
Alabama, close to initiation area 1. Higher coverage will be mainly
be in MS.

Activity initiated from area 2 will push into Southern Middle TN and
locations near the AL/TN state line from the north later this
afternoon (after 3 or 4 pm). We will be unstable enough, but models
weaken this activity as it pushes in. Likely due to a very weak CAPE
hinted at aloft by mesoscale forecast soundings. However, given
forecast instability parameters and very moist surface conditions
that are in place (and will continue to advect into extreme
northwestern Alabama through the afternoon hours), isolated to
scattered shower and thunderstorm activity looks possible late this
afternoon in northwest Alabama and Southern Middle Tennessee. The
main threats with any stronger storms that develop will be gusty
winds to around 40 mph and frequent lightning. Thus added a 20 to 30
pop in northwest Alabama and our Southern Middle Tennessee counties.

Partly cloudy conditions should be prevalent through much of the day,
until the late afternoon hours in northwest Alabama. Temperatures
are already in the 79 to 85 degree range across much of the forecast
area. Huntsville may be on its way to 94 degrees. Most locations will
reach the upper 80s to lower 90s. Luckily dewpoints should remain
comfortable east of Lawrence county in Alabama. This should make the
heat uncomfortable but bearable today.



For 18Z TAFs:

VFR conditions are expected to continue across N AL/S Middle TN for
the next 24 hours. There is the possibility for -TSRA close to the
MS/AL border and have included -TSRA as a TEMPO group between 20-23Z.
More isolated -tsra are possible mainly over northwest AL/northeast
AL and Southern Middle TN. In addition, gusty south to southwest
winds up to 15 kts are likely until 23-01Z. Otherwise, southerly
winds should prevail through the period.



.HUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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