Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 291112

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
612 AM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

Deep upper low currently over the four corners region....with a
stationary front draped from the Southern Plains up into the Ohio
River Valley. Impulses traveling from SW to NE along the boundary
developing plenty of thunderstorms with heavy precip in a large
swath across much of the country. WPC QPF tonight has maintained a
total of 3-5" with locally more possible in the south and east.
Have left the flash flood watch at this point with the highest
QPF expected southeast of the IL River Valley. Day One Outlook is
placing a slight risk from Springfield to Danville for today and
the potential for individual storms to potentially become severe
with large hail and damaging wind gusts later this
afternoon/evening as a break in the precip is persisting in the
model runs ahead of the slow advance of the upper low, allowing a
little destabilization even in the wake of plenty of prev
convection...and potential MCS this evening.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

Warm front lifting to the north, but showers and thunderstorms
continuing through the day and into the evening hours until the
cold front sweeps through the region, eventually clearing up the
precip after midnight. Before it goes, however, the cold front
moving through the region Sun afternoon/evening will still have an
increased risk of severe weather highly contingent on the timing.
SPC day 2 outlook keeping the slight risk to the south for
now...but the marginal risk is over the rest of the state. Monday
will still maintain low pops for some residual showers in cyclonic
flow/instability showers through the afternoon. Temperatures
considerably cooler again with highs in the 50s for Monday.
Temperatures start an extremely slow warm up to the mid 60s by the
end of the week as the pattern shifts to a more zonal flow through
midweek before another upper wave dives into the Midwest,
amplifying the flow over the region and bringing back a cooler air
advection with northerly winds at the surface to wrap up the week.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 607 AM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

The rare ob coming in periodically with VFR conditions... but
mainly MVFR-IFR. Persistent and widespread precip with very
diffuse thunder spread across Central IL resulting in TAFS that
carry thunder for a very long time today. VCTS later in the
forecast just to handle the lack of confidence about a potential
break in the precip. Otherwise, low clouds, limited vis, and rain
through most of today and into tonight.

Flash Flood Watch through Monday morning for ILZ031-037-038-



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