Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 030452
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1152 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.AVIATION...

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH VFR EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. ISOLATED MAINLY AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA ARE
POSSIBLE...HOWEVER CHANCES APPEAR TO LOW AT THIS TIME FOR
INCLUSION IN THE TAFS. 22/TD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

SYNOPSIS...

FRONTAL SYSTEM REMAINS JUST OFF THE LOUISIANA COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. WEAK LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF TALLAHASSEE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS JUST SOUTH OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES AGAIN HAVE WARMED
INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S. DEW POINTS ACROSS THE AREA ARE
MAINLY IN THE 60S AWAY FROM MARINE INFLUENCES.

SHORT TERM...

DIFFERENCE IN MODELS IN THE SHORT TERM IS WHEN MOISTURE RETURNS.
LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO NORTH FLORIDA HAS TIGHTENED THE GRADIENT
A LITTLE TODAY AND HAS PULLED DRY AIR A LITTLE FURTHER
SOUTHWARD...AND SLOWED THE ONSET OF ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA.
ANY SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA RIGHT NOW ARE MORE DUE TO SEA
BREEZE THAN ANY SYNOPTIC FEATURE. GFS KEEPS MOISTURE SOUTH OF MOST
OF THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH MAY BE A BIT TOO LONG.
WILL COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE DRIER GFS AND THE SOMEWHAT MORE MOIST
NAM/ECMWF SOLUTIONS. POPS WILL RANGE FROM SLIGHT CHANCE NORTH TO
CHANCE SOUTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY. LITTLE DAY TO DAY CHANGE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES.
FOR LOW TEMPERATURES...WILL TREND TOWARD THE COOLER NUMBERS FOR
TONIGHT...GRADUALLY WARMING THEM THE FOLLOWING 2 NIGHTS. 35

LONG TERM...

UPPER RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL SLOWLY EDGE TO THE
EAST LATE IN THE WEEK. ECMWF MOVES THE RIDGE TO THE EAST MORE
AGGRESSIVELY THAN DOES THE GFS...AND MAY BE SLIGHTLY OVERDONE.
OPTED NOT TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME
TO FIT WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. THIS WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION OVER
THE WEEKEND. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME. 35

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AND LINGER FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 24 HOURS.
GULF MOISTURE SHOULD BEGIN TO RESURGE NORTHWARD MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
SOME VFR BASED CLOUDS. CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO LOWER
PARISHES OF LA WHERE KHUM AND KMSY MAY HAVE A SHOT FROM ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND BRIEF TSRA GENERALLY AFTER MON 19Z. 24/RR

MARINE...

NORTHERLY FLOW NEAR SHORE HOLDING BETTER THAN ANTICIPATED IN
LARGE PART TO LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION OVER APALACHEE BAY FLORIDA
MAINTAINING CONTINENTAL INFLUENCES FARTHER WEST. AS THAT FEATURE
LIFTS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD A RETURN TO ONSHORE FLOW LIKELY
TO ONSET WITH GULF BREEZE CIRCULATION MONDAY...THEN PERSISTING
THROUGH THE WEEK. 24/RR

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM RED
             RIVER LANDING TO DONALDSONVILLE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  72  96  74  96 /   0  10  10  20
BTR  73  95  76  96 /   0  20  10  20
ASD  72  94  75  94 /  10  20  10  20
MSY  77  93  78  93 /  10  20  10  20
GPT  75  92  77  92 /  10  20  10  20
PQL  73  93  75  93 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


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