Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 052011
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
311 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

REMNANTS OF A DRY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FROM IOWA INTO TEXAS. NO
SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS OR WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S...ALTHOUGH A COUPLE LOCATIONS
WILL SNEAK INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. NORTHERLY
BREEZES HELPING DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE AREA WITH DEW POINTS
FALLING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

GREAT PLAINS HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD AS
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ONSHORE
FLOW WILL NOT RETURN UNTIL SUNDAY...SO MOISTURE AND HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL STAY RATHER LOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY AIR WILL MEAN
25 TO 30 DEGREE DIURNAL RANGES. NORMALLY COOLER SITES COULD DIP
INTO THE UPPER 40S TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT...AND WILL GENERALLY
TREND TOWARD THE COOLER END OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS. HIGH TEMPERATURE
FORECAST NUMBERS ARE CLOSE...AND FIT WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM...

UPPER RIDGING MOVES TO THE EAST COAST EARLY IN THE WEEK...ALLOWING
MOISTURE TO RETURN WITH THE ONSET OF ONSHORE FLOW. ANY SIGNIFICANT
LIFTING MECHANISMS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE
AREA. COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION
THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT NO ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS OR
RAINFALL EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS TONIGHT DO NOT APPEAR TO BE QUITE AS STRONG AS EARLIER
FORECAST...AND HAVE LOWERED TONIGHTS ADVISORY TO EXERCISE CAUTION
HEADLINES. THE PERIOD OF ENHANCED WINDS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY
BRIEF...WITH WINDS DOWN TO 10 TO 15 MPH BY MID-MORNING. BENIGN
CONDITIONS THEN SET IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY MONDAY...ONSHORE
FLOW RETURNS WITH EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES
NECESSARY...CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE EASING.


&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  49  75  50  82 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  52  78  53  84 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  49  76  51  81 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  58  76  59  81 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  51  76  54  81 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  49  76  49  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


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