Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 222109
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
409 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SYNOPSIS...

A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS SETTLED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BETWEEN TROUGHS NEAR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO AND THE EAST
COAST. SURFACE MAP INDICATED A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE
NORTH GULF OF MEXICO INCLUDING THE LOUISIANA COASTAL WATERS. IN
ADDITION...A 1025 MB HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND
LOWER OHIO VALLEY WITH SURFACE PRESSURE VALUES OF ABOUT 1021 MB OVER
THE FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S IN THE LOWER
80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. THE ONLY PRECIPITATION ON RADAR WAS A
FEW SHOWERS OVER THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS...AND THE CUMULUS FIELD
IS ONLY SLOWLY BUILDING OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
SINCE THE ONLY EFFECTIVE INSTABILITY IS SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.

DISCUSSION...

A FEW SHOWERS COULD STILL DEVELOP OVER AREAS SOUTHWEST AND WEST OF
NEW ORLEANS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE HIGH PRESSURE
AREA WILL SHIFT EAST ON SATURDAY RESULTING IN RETURN FLOW WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS AND GRADUALLY RISING DEWPOINTS AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. PRECIPITABLE WATER /PW/ VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO
NEAR 1.75 INCHES WITH GREATER INSTABILITY OVER THE FAR WESTERN AREAS
WITH LOWER 1.35 TO 1.5 INCH PW OVER THE EAST. HAVE RESTRICTED
THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POP OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF I-55 MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY AND THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD NEXT WEEK WILL HAVE
ELEVATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.
THE MAIN LOW/TROUGH WILL TRACK WEST ACROSS THE ROCKIES SUNDAY AND
OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL POOL AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
AXIS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE CLOSE PROXIMITY AND OPEN
GULF ALONG WITH MINOR DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL YIELD A
GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN ON SUNDAY AND LIKELY RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS ON WEDNESDAY. TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS
BUT NOT AS SHARP LATTER PART OF NEXT WEAK. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE AREA. THEREFORE...RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE INTO LOWER
CHANCE RANGES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THE 7 DAY QPF
FORECAST FROM WPC OVER THE FORECAST AREA RANGES FROM ABOUT 1.5
INCHES OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST TO 3 TO 4 INCHES SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST. 22/TD

&&

.AVIATION...
MOST OF THE LOCAL TERMINALS ARE REPORTING VFR CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. EXCEPTIONS ARE THE TWO WESTERNMOST TERMINALS...KBTR AND
KHUM...WHERE OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS ARE OCCURRING. QUESTIONABLE
HOW MUCH EASTWARD THESE CLOUDS WOULD MOVE TONIGHT. ANTICIPATE THAT
MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. WITH LOWER DEW POINTS IN PLACE...FOG
SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE AT MOST TERMINALS. EXCEPTION MIGHT BE
KHUM WHERE DEW POINTS ARE A LITTLE HIGHER...AND EVEN
THERE...PROBABLY ONLY MVFR VSBYS. AS ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS...LIKELY
TO SEE SOME CLOUDS DEVELOP NEAR 850 MB...FL050...BY LATE MORNING
SATURDAY. 35

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS HAVE RELAXED TO AROUND 15 KNOTS OVER THE OPEN WATERS...AND DO
NOT ANTICIPATE ANY EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES IN THE AFTERNOON
PACKAGE. WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS UNTIL MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW
RE-ESTABLISHES LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON OR EVENING. A FAIRLY LENGTHY
PERIOD OF WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS OVER THE OPEN WATERS FROM SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT...SO HEADLINES MAY BE REQUIRED
UPON OCCASION IF WINDS PERSIST MUCH ABOVE 15 KNOTS. CONVECTION WILL
ALSO COME A LITTLE MORE INTO PLAY BEGINNING ON SUNDAY...BUT MORESO
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. 35

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  63  87  69  87 /  10  20  20  50
BTR  68  87  71  88 /  10  40  30  50
ASD  66  87  71  85 /  10  10  20  40
MSY  72  86  75  87 /  10  20  20  40
GPT  67  86  75  85 /  10  10  30  40
PQL  62  83  71  83 /  10  10  30  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



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