Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 250043
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
743 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

Well-mixed boundary layer extends to about 2800 feet. This layer
has also experienced quite a bit of moistening over the last 24
hours with a layer average increase in moisture of about 4
degrees Celsius. Drier air, particularly above the 850mb
inversion, is found above this low level moisture. Total column
moisture as measured by precipitable water is at 1.3 inches. With
ridge of high pressure nosing into the central Gulf Coast States,
instability in sounding will remain untapped. Winds in the lowest
levels are from the southeast and then become from the northwest
around 14000 feet through the remainder of the atmosphere. A peak
wind speed of 65 knots at 40000 feet.

00Z balloon info: The ascent lasted 88 minutes traveling 28 miles
downrange from the office reaching a height of 18.8 miles above
the ground bursting over the Biloxi State Wildlife Management
Area.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 305 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Dry weather pattern is expected across the region for much of the
forecast period. Upper level ridge will help keep temperatures at
or slightly above normal through the weekend. A predominantly
southeast wind will also help pump moisture over the area which
will push heat index values higher each day. By Sunday, those values
will be in the lower to mid 90`s areawide. Expecting this trend to
continue onto next week which could help temperatures

The increase in moisture could bring slightly higher rain chances.
However, given the upper level pattern, the main bulk of rain will
remain well off to our northwest and any activity will be mostly
isolated.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail across most TAF sites with the
exception of brief MVFR conditions due to low ceiling across our
western sites.

MARINE...

Expect winds for most of the coastal waters to be in the 10 to 15
knot range through the rest of the week. Could get up above 15
knots, mainly over the western waters, on Friday. May need some
Exercise Caution headlines by Thursday night or Friday. With the
persistent southeast winds, a bit of swell may build up toward the
end of the week. This may also enhance tides, which will need to
be monitored the second half of the week.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS code: Green.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: None.

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green  = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue   = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
         high visibility event.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning
         or advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby
         tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red    = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or
         direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  66  87  68  87 /  10  10  10  20
BTR  71  89  71  87 /  10  20  10  20
ASD  68  86  68  86 /  10  10  10  10
MSY  73  87  73  86 /  10  10  10  10
GPT  69  85  72  86 /   0   0  10  10
PQL  64  85  67  85 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.LIX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$



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