Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
FXUS64 KMEG 230427
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1127 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016
Updated to include the 06z aviation discussion.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 836 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016/
DISCUSSION...A ridge of high pressure remains in place across the
Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast United States this evening.
This is bringing clear skies and temperatures as of 8 pm CDT in
the middle/upper 40s near the Tennessee River and 50s elsewhere.
Will make a minor adjustment to temperatures along the Tennessee
River overnight. Otherwise, forecast overall remains in great
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 310 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016/
Currently...1022 mb surface high pressure is centered over the
Mid-South. Sunny skies prevail with temp ranging from the mid 60s
across northeast West Tennessee to around 70 in the Delta region.
Winds have shifted to the southwest across Eastern Arkansas as the
surface high shifts east while northerly winds continue along the
TN River and across Northeast Mississippi.
Tonight...The surface high will continue to shift east overnight.
Coolest temperatures will occur over extreme Northeast Mississippi
and parts of southeast West Tennessee near the TN River where
winds will be the light near the center of the surface high.
Dewpoints are currently in the 30s in these locations and temps
will drop quickly this evening. A few locations could dip below
40 with isolated frost in the coolest places. Frost will not be
nearly as widespread as last night so no advisory will be needed.
Light south winds will develop further west across the Delta so
temps will remain much warmer tonight...in the 40s.
Sunday through Tuesday...Pleasant fall weather expected. High
pressure will be centered just north of the Gulf Coast on Sunday
with warmer southwest winds across the region. Temps will climb
well into the 70s. Low relative humidities in the afternoon and
drying fuels may result in an elevated fire danger across the
region on Sunday. A weak cold front will move through Sunday
night and Monday morning. Not much sensible weather with this
feature, just a wind shift. Temps will be similar to
Sunday...perhaps a degree or two cooler across the northern areas.
High pressure will rebuild in from the Ohio Valley on Tuesday with
dry and pleasant weather continuing.
Wednesday through Thursday...A progressive mid level trough will
move through the region. System is not looking very impressive on
the 12z model runs. The cold front will be quickly weakening as
it moves into the Mid-South and the moisture return is feeble. As
a result kept pops fairly low as this system. Expect most of
Wednesday to be dry and warm with the best chance of showers
occurring Wednesday night. Right now thunder chances appear low
with little instability. Any rain will be pulling out Thursday
morning with skies clearing.
Friday through Saturday...Nice weather returns. Not much chilly air
behind the exiting system so expect highs in the 70s and lows in
VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Expect light
winds and clear skies overnight. South to southwest winds will
increase to 8-12 kts at most sites by mid to late morning,
occasionally gusting in excess of 15 kts. The strongest winds will
be along and west of the Mississippi River.