Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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000
FXUS64 KMEG 301802
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
102 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

UPDATE...

A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS LOCATED
ROUGHLY ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING
ACROSS NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AT THIS TIME. THIS AREA WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IN ADDITION...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OCCURRING ACROSS WESTERN MISSISSIPPI AND
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA WILL PUSH INTO NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI BY THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.

MEANWHILE...A WAKE LOW HAS DEVELOPED ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE BAND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GETTING NUMEROUS REPORTS OF 40-50
MPH WINDS KNOCKING DOWN TREES. THIS WAKE LOW MAY BEGIN AFFECTING
THE MEMPHIS METRO AREA SHORTLY. WILL KEEP ISSUING SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORIES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE STRONG WINDS.

ALSO...DON/T EXPECT MUCH REDEVELOPMENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS
MORNINGS CONVECTION. THE WARM FRONT HAS SURGED NORTH OF THE AREA
WHILE THE COLD FRONT SHOULD NOT MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST ARKANSAS
TO AFTER 00Z. AT THAT TIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BEGIN
DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT. HAVE BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES AND
LOWERED POPS ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AS
A RESULT.

KRM

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO TRAIN ALONG AND EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. LITTLE ROCKS 00Z SOUNDING MEASURED NEARLY
1.50 INCHES PRECIPITABLE WATER. DUAL POL INSTANTANEOUS PRECIPITATION
RATES ARE UP TO 2.5 INCHES PER HOUR. FLOODING IS LIKELY IN EAST
CENTRAL ARKANSAS...ALTHOUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING REPORTS HAVE
NOT BEEN ABUNDANT. HIGH RES SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
RAIN WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING...BUT 2-4 ADDITIONAL
INCHES OF RAIN IS LIKELY.

A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTH MISSOURI INTO ILLINOIS
TODAY. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTH MISSOURI AND
A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY APPROACHING THE MIDSOUTH FROM THE WEST. ONCE
THE FRONT PASSES...WE SHOULD SEE AN END TO THE ADVERSE
WEATHER...BUT UNTIL THEN IT MIGHT BE A GOOD IDEA TO JUST ENJOY A
SATURDAY INDOORS. SPC HAS ALL OF THE MIDSOUTH IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT FEEL CONFIDENT THAT ONGOING CONVECTION
WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY AND RESULTING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL. STRONG STORMS CONTAINING HEAVY RAIN AND LOTS OF
LIGHTNING ARE EXPECTED.

SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL SHIFT ZONAL LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS
A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH WILL
FINALLY SEE SOME SUNSHINE BY SUNDAY EVENING...THE EXCEPTION BEING
FAR EASTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE
LOW TO MIDDLE 70S DUE TO ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL.
UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES...AND IF FRIDAY WAS ANY
INDICATION OF WHAT TODAY MAY BRING...I STILL MAY BE TOO WARM.
SUNDAY SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER.

A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
MIDSOUTH MONDAY. SHOWERS MAY LINGER FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS NORTH
MISSISSIPPI. SOME OF THE COOLEST LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY DIP INTO
THE 40S TUESDAY MORNING. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE
60S AREA WIDE MONDAY...TRENDING A FEW DEGREES WARMER EACH DAY
THROUGH MIDWEEK.

ZONAL FLOW WILL SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY MIDWEEK AS A STRONG RIDGE
BUILDS OUT WEST. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WORK
WEEK. RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT LOOKS MARGINAL...SO MOISTURE
FOR RAIN SHOULD BE LIMITED. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST THROUGH
THE WORK WEEK.

30

&&

.AVIATION...

WAKE LOW DEVELOPED AS THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEAKENED ACROSS THE REGION. GUSTY WINDS SEEM TO BE SUBSIDING.
BEST CHANCE FOR SHRAS/TSRAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE AT KTUP AND
PLACED A TEMPO THERE FROM 30/19Z-30/23Z. KMEM...KJBR AND KMKL WILL
BE VFR THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING. EXPECT SOME REDEVELOPMENT
ACROSS NE AR AND KJBR THIS EVENING POSSIBLY MOVING INTO KMEM AND
KMKL TOWARD MIDNIGHT. ADDED SOME VCTS FOR THAT POSSIBILITY. EXPECT
SOME LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING WITH
MVFR CIGS LIKELY.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



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