Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 280231
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
831 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILE
TRENDS DEPICT A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE BAJA OF MEXICO. AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH A
WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF PACIFIC MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM
NORTHEAST INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS EVENING. WSR-88D
RADAR TRENDS SHOW RAIN OVER EAST/NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL...AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI ASSOCIATED WITH AN EMBEDDED
700/500MB MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

LATEST SHORT TERM TRENDS INDICATE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
TEXAS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO THE REGION...BRINGING
ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT TOWARDS
SUNDAY MORNING. MAY NEED TO CONSIDER TRIMMING/CANCELING FLASH
FLOOD WATCH IF OBSERVED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO BE WELL
BELOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES AT
THIS TIME AS ADDITIONAL 00Z MODEL DATA IS STILL ARRIVING. WILL
MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND ADJUSTMENTS TO ANY OTHER
GRIDS AS NEEDED TO ACCOUNT FOR SHORT TERM TRENDS.

UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

CJC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 523 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2014/

UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...

SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE UPPER 50S.
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE MAINLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE. THE AREAL
COVERAGE OF THE RAIN HAS DECREASED SINCE THIS MORNING.

A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH
EASTERN ARKANSAS AND INTO NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. THIS FRONT IS
HELPING TO PRODUCE THE RAIN OVER THE REGION. BY TONIGHT...LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND MOVE INTO NORTH MISSISSIPPI OVERNIGHT. AS
THE FRONT MOVES SLOWLY EAST RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVER MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS THE LOW MOVES INTO NORTH MISSISSIPPI RAIN
MAY BECOME HEAVIER ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI WHERE
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY SO
THE THREAT OF MORE RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AND INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE ON SUNDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES.

BY MONDAY...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. THIS HIGH WILL START TO BRING DRY WEATHER TO
THE REGION. SINCE THE HIGH WILL BE QUITE FAR AWAY THERE WILL STILL
BE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDS ON MONDAY BUT THEY GRADUALLY START TO
MOVE AWAY SO SKIES SHOULD BECOME MORE CLEAR MONDAY NIGHT. COLDER
AIR WILL START TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION AS THE HIGH DROPS
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND THEN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IT
WILL BE DRY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

BY THURSDAY SOUTH WINDS WILL START TO BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
REGION WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED OVER SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...A NEW SURFACE
LOW WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO AND THEN WILL BE
MOVING EAST THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
AHEAD OF THIS LOW MORE MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
SO THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. IN NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
PRECIPITATION MAY TAKE THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN AS TEMPERATURES
DROP CLOSE TO FREEZING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING BEFORE RETURNING TO RAIN LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

AS THE LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST THROUGH MISSOURI AND EVENTUALLY INTO
ILLINOIS...MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO FALL FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO NEXT
SATURDAY.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH
IMPACTING ALL SITES TONIGHT...AND LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY TOMORROW AT MKL AND TUP. JBR SHOULD SEE LESS SHOWER
ACTIVITY BY MIDDAY AND MEM BY EARLY TO MIDDLE AFTERNOON.
PREVAILING VIS WILL BE IN THE 3-5SM RANGE...BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF
1-2SM VIS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOME OF THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS. IFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT...WITH GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT TOMORROW. MEM AND MKL SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WITH VFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT JBR. TUP IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
IFR. WINDS SHIFTING NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO 8-10KT.

30

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-
     ITAWAMBA-LEE MS-MONROE-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-TISHOMINGO.

TN...NONE.
&&

$$



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