Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 130946
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
346 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURES ARE NOT QUITE AS COLD AS EXPECTED. AT 3 AM THE
COLDEST READINGS ARE IN THE MIDDLE 20S IN WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE
TENNESSEE RIVER...WITH MEMPHIS AND TUPELO IN THE LOW 30S. MID
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE SHIFTING EAST FROM CENTRAL ARKANSAS. THIS MAY
HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH MORE WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. WE SHOULD SEE MORNING LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 20S
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH A FEW UPPER TEENS ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR PARIS AND UNION CITY TENNESSEE. WINDS ARE GENERALLY 10-15 MPH
THIS MORNING MAKING TEMPERATURES FEEL QUITE A BIT COLDER. WIND
CHILLS RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S. BY SUNRISE THE
COLDEST PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH MAY SEE WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS.

WE WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TODAY
KEEPING US DRY AND COLD. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL SHIFT FROM
NEAR IOWA...INTO THE OHIO VALLEY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...IT WILL RELEASE ITS GRIP ON THE MIDSOUTH RESULTING IN
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND EVENTUALLY A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO TREND WARMER SUNDAY MORNING.
WARM ADVECTION WILL STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS STRENGTHENING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND THE HIGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS MAY APPROACH 10 MPH BY SUNRISE SUNDAY
MORNING.

WE HAVE BACKED OFF ON OUR WINTER PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL...ONLY
BRINGING TRACE AMOUNTS OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS SUNDAY MORNING. GIVEN MODEL TRENDS AND THE STRENGTHENING
WAA...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. BY MIDDAY
SUNDAY WE SHOULD SEE ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES AREA WIDE WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES. ANY FREEZING
OR FROZEN PRECIPITATION SHOULD MELT QUICKLY.

A BROAD TROUGH WILL SETUP ACROSS THE EASTERN US EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS A RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN US. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SET UP ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE REGION. HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD
BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S...WITH MID 50S TO MIDDLE 60S DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATER PART
OF THE WORK WEEK. WE MAY SEE ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN BY NEXT
SATURDAY...BUT NOTING SIGNIFICANT LOOKS TO BE IN STORE OVER THE
NEXT WEEK OR SO.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS

VFR AND NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS TO PREVAIL AROUND THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING FROM NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THESE WINDS WILL WEAKEN
AFTER 00Z...UNDER INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$


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