Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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867
FXUS64 KMEG 250445
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1145 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

.UPDATE...Aviation Discussion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 859 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017/

Skies are partly cloudy across the forecast area this evening with
temperatures ranging from the mid 60s to lower 70s. There is not
much in the way of rain in the forecast area at this time but an
area of showers and thunderstorms covers much of central and
western Arkansas. Much of this activity should move into the
forecast area overnight. Will update forecast to remove evening
wording with no big changes needed.

ARS

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 227 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017/

Currently across the region gusty south winds along with a few
breaks in the clouds were providing for temperatures in the low
and mid 70s.

Upcoming week appears unsettled as the southern jet stream
trajectory remains active.

For tonight and tomorrow...short range models show current broken
line of convection in eastern Oklahoma and Texas lifting east
northeast through the night...reaching the Mississippi River with
both a bow echo and LEWP. If this pans out it would lead to a
greater wind and tornado threat for the Delta counties. Activity
will exit the east by sunrise leaving the area worked over and
cloudy through most of the morning...but with the cold front and
upper support still to the west conditions will by early afternoon
should turn around with new development triggering near the
Mississippi River. This convection will likely be more discrete
and scattered in nature...with all severe threats possible.
Models indicating CAPE amounts of 800-1500 j/kg with 30 to 50m
height falls during the afternoon hours. A few lingering thunder
showers will remain in the east till midnight...with partial
clearing in the southwest Delta. Gradient winds the next 24 hours
will continue to flirt with advisory criteria across a majority
of the area before FROPA. The highest gusts will occur west of
the Mississippi River. Kept lows above guidance tonight and highs
aligned with the warmer GFS tomorrow.

Sunday and Monday...a brief break in between systems for Sunday
with continued temperatures of 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Rain
chances will ramp up quickly Sunday night as the next shortwave
moves into the Ozarks. Two rounds of storms will be possible again
with severe weather...likely large hail...more probable with
round two on Monday.

Tuesday and Wednesday...mild and dry this period...with building
upper level heights. Their is an slight chance for a light shower
to form in the north and east during the warmer hours of the day.

Thursday and Friday...similar scenario as the one for tonight and
tomorrow expected this period. The GFS and ECMWF still differ in
respect of timing...but the next closed 500mb low will take a
similar track from the Southern High Plains to the OZARKS with
surface low pressure occluding in the process. Backed winds
Thursday with a lifting warm front could lead to a better tornado
risk for the area. Temperatures remaining above normal overall.

JAB

AVIATION...

Strong south winds will prevail for the next 18 hrs or
so...diminishing below 10kt after sunset tomorrow. Until then
Speeds will likely be sustained around 15-20kt with gusts 30
kt...stronger and variable in association with thunderstorms.

A line of thunderstorms will be preceded be scattered showers
tonight. Attempted to time the thunderstorms based on radar and
short term guidance. Prevailing thunder should arrive at MEM
around 9-10z. Prevailing vis will be MVFR in association with the
showers...likely IFR or lower in association with thunderstorms.
Cigs will drop to MVFR levels as showers begin...likely IFR with
thunderstorms.

Another round of thunderstorms is possible before midday
tomorrow. VFR conditions should return to all sites late tomorrow.


30

&&

.AVIATION...


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Wind Advisory until 4 PM CDT Saturday for Clay-Craighead-
     Crittenden-Cross-Greene-Lawrence-Lee AR-Mississippi-
     Phillips-Poinsett-Randolph-St. Francis.

MO...Wind Advisory until 4 PM CDT Saturday for Dunklin-Pemiscot.

MS...Wind Advisory until 4 PM CDT Saturday for Benton MS-Coahoma-
     DeSoto-Lafayette-Marshall-Panola-Quitman-Tallahatchie-Tate-
     Tunica-Yalobusha.

TN...Wind Advisory until 4 PM CDT Saturday for Crockett-Dyer-Fayette-
     Gibson-Hardeman-Haywood-Lake-Lauderdale-Madison-Obion-
     Shelby-Tipton-Weakley.

&&

$$



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