Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 291525
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1025 AM CDT Mon May 29 2017

.UPDATE...
A quasi-stationary surface boundary is sitting over the Mid-South
this morning, extending roughly from Tunica, to just south of
Jackson, to Camden. North of this front, winds are from the north
and northwest at ~5 mph with dewpoints falling into the upper 50s
and lower 60s. However, light south winds continue south of the
boundary with dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s. We`re already seeing
some Cu develop along and south of the front and this trend should
continue through the afternoon hours. There will be a fair amount
of instability across north MS this afternoon but deep-layer shear
is only marginal at ~35 kts (0-6km bulk wind difference). There is
a marginal risk across the extreme southeast portion of the CWA,
namely south and east of Tupelo, but a few strong storms will be
possible across all of north MS.

PoPs were trimmed back along the I-40 corridor and dewpoints were
lowered a few degrees north of the surface boundary. Finally, max
temperatures were raised a few degrees in areas where the sun has
come out as temperatures have already reach 80 degrees across
portions of northeast AR and west TN. Other changes to the
forecast were minor.

Johnson

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 400 AM CDT Mon May 29 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Broad upper level troughing covers the central and northeastern
U.S. this morning and will remain in place through mid week. A
series of shortwave disturbances will rotate through the base of
this trough through Wednesday. Deep moisture remains in place
across roughly the southern half of the Mid South and will remain
so through mid week. This should support the potential for showers
and thunderstorms each day through Wednesday, with the greatest
coverage south of Interstate 40 where the best moisture resides.
Further north, only isolated showers and thunderstorms are
expected both Tuesday and Wednesday particularly during peak
heating. A few strong storms cannot be ruled out each afternoon as
instability is maximized within a modestly sheared environment
along the southern periphery of the upper trough. Temperatures
through mid week should remain near normal with highs in the lower
to middle 80s and lows mainly in the 60s.

The broad upper troughing will lift out to the northeast by mid
week but will be replaced by an upper level low pressure system
lifting northeast out of the Southern Plains. Abundant Gulf
moisture should remain over the area through the end of the week
and into next weekend. As the upper low interacts with the rich
Gulf moisture, expect an increase in coverage of showers and
thunderstorms across the region. Have raised pops from Friday
through the weekend, with numerous showers and thunderstorms
anticipated. High temperatures should remain near or slightly
below average with above average overnight lows through the
extended forecast period.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFs

Showers and thunderstorms have gradually been diminishing across
portions of W TN, E AR, and N MS this morning. VCSH may linger
into the afternoon at TUP. VFR conditions expected at TAF sites
through much of the period. Fog may develop late tonight at TUP
producing MVFR/IFR conditions. Light winds expected through the
period.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.

&&

$$



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