Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 050257

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
957 PM EST Sun Dec 4 2016

High pressure will move offshore tonight. Low pressure will move
quickly up the coast late tonight and then offshore Monday,
followed by high pressure late Monday. Complex low pressure will
develop across the area Tuesday and move offshore Wednesday. A
strong cold front will move through Thursday evening.


As of 10 pm Sunday...Light rain covers the forecast area this
evening. As the lower layers saturate and dewpoints rise from
current levels in the lower/mid 40s, expect intensity and
coverage of rain to increase which is forecast by latest HRRR
model. Have categorical PoPs through the night as rain becomes
steadier. Fairly uniform low temperatures expected tonight with
lows in the mid 40s at most locations.


As of 310 PM Sunday, as surface low moves along then offshore of
the northern Outer Banks, some drier air will get advected into
the region during the morning hours on Monday, mainly inland. Rain
may linger along the coast during the early part of the day and
will taper the PoPs inland. Some partial sunshine is possible over
much of the area during Monday afternoon as most of the rain moves
offshore. High temperatures will range in the upper 50s to lower
60s for Monday.


As of 316 AM Sun...Another round of rain moves through late
Monday night through Tuesday. Dry and warm mid week followed by a
strong cold front and arctic air Friday into next weekend.

Monday Night into Tuesday...Strong compact shortwave trough will
eject out of the southern plains Monday night and move through the
TN/OH valley Tuesday. 04/00Z model suite remains in good
agreement with this system bringing another round of rain during
this time frame. Strong omega develops late Mon night as
strengthening S flow develops on 50 kt LLJ. The region will be in
RRQ of upper jet and will induce large area of div q over the
region. Deep southerly flow downstairs combined with large area of
omega advancing towards E NC will spread in rain from west to
east after midnight and have an increasing pop trend through the
overnight as a result. First half of Tue will be a washout as deep
moisture/lift is maximized over the area. Second area of
cyclogenesis progged to develop along the NC coast and quickly
exit on Tuesday with winds becoming NW behind the exiting system.
It will be warm despite the rain with highs in the 60s east to
mid/upr 50s coastal plain which should remain in northerly flow on
cool side of the low.

Tuesday Night through Thursday...Dry conditions return with
subsidence and advancing high pres behind the departing system.
It will continue to be mild as upr ridge amplifies across the
eastern CONUS in response to deepening trough across the
Intermountain West and Plains states. Temps above climo expected
with highs in the 60s and lows in the mid 40s to lower 50s.

Friday through Sunday...Aforementioned trough across the
western/central CONUS will translate eastward bringing coldest
air mass of the season to much of the eastern 2/3 of the CONUS.
Strong cold front will push through E NC by Fri with strong CAA
ensuing behind it. Blustery and cold conditions expected Friday
through Sat with high temps in the 40s and lows 20-25 interior to
low 30s OBX.


Short Term /Through 18Z Monday/...
As of 7 pm Sunday...VFR conditions are slowly giving way to MVFR
and IFR conditions, which will eventually become widespread
overnight. Ceilings will gradually lower throughout the rest of
the evening. Heavier rain will hold off until overnight. Rain and
low clouds will exit the airspace quickly Monday morning and VFR
conditions should return by mid morning.

Long Term /Monday Night through Friday/...
As of 316 AM Sun...Ceilings will lower again Monday night into
Tuesday with strong low pressure moving across the area and more
widespread rain. The low will exit Tue afternoon and evening
though low clouds and fog may persist on Tue night. High pres
builds in for Wed into Thur bringing return to VFR conditions.
Strong cold front will push through Thur night into Fri with gusty
NW winds developing behind it.


Short Term /Tonight and Monday/...
As of 10 pm Sunday...Presently seeing E/NE winds at 5-15 knots.
Seas are in the 3-4 foot range. Latest local SWAN/NWPS model shows
some 6-foot seas into southern waters south of Ocracoke starting
Monday into late Monday afternoon. These higher seas will be
mostly in the offshore waters driven by gusty S/SW winds offshore
around surface waves moving near or just offshore. As a result,
have initiated a Small Craft Advisory from 12z-21z Monday for the
waters south of Ocracoke. Increased seas will affect northern
waters from 18z Monday through 06z Tuesday. NE winds of 5-15 knots
tonight veer to SE late tonight and around to West 10-20 knots for

Long Term /Monday Night through Friday/...
As of 316 AM Sun...A stronger low pres area develops and moves up
the coast on Monday night and Tue, bringing strong gusty winds
and probable SCA conditions. Tough to pin down the speed and
direction of winds at this time as the low will be passing through
the marine domain making timing of wind switch difficult this far
out in time, but it appears gusty easterly winds ahead of the low
will then switch to the NW and remain gusty as the low exits. The
low will exit Tue night with winds diminishing on Wednesday. Winds
back to the SW or W by Thur with approach of strong cold front
that will move through the waters Thur night or Fri bringing
another round of gusty 20-30 kt winds in its wake.


MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Monday to 1 AM EST Tuesday for
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 4 PM EST Monday for AMZ156-



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