Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 051410
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1010 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT TO THE NORTH WILL SAG SOUTH INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS
TODAY...THEN DRIFT NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. AN OFFSHORE HIGH
AND INLAND TROUGH PATTERN WILL PERSIST MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
AS OF 930 AM SUNDAY...DROPPED POPS ALL ZONES REST OF
MORNING...THEN INCREASED AFTN POPS TO LIKELY OVER WRN AND NRN
SECTIONS BUT DECREASED TO 20% SRN OBX AND CART/ONSLOW COASTAL
SECTIONS. UPDATED SKY COVER FOR CURRENT THICKER MID CLOUDS
AFFECTING ERN 2/3 OF AREA WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS.

THICKER MID CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS AREA THIS MORNING WILL INHIBIT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT UNTIL AFTN. ONLY SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC
FEATURE THIS AFTN WILL BE WEAK FRONT DROPPING INTO NRN SECTIONS
AND THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG
WITH INLAND THERMAL TROFFING. LATEST MESO MODELS INDICATE SCT-BKN
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AFTN INTO EARLY EVENING WITH BEST COVERAGE WRN
AND NRN SECTIONS. WIND FIELDS NOT AS STRONG IN 12Z MHX SOUNDING
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS BUT ISOLATED WET MICROBURST
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

CLOUD COVER SLOWING HEATING SOMEWHAT THIS MORNING BUT STILL EXPECT
HIGHS AROUND 90 INLAND WITH MID-UPR 80S COAST.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 630 AM SUNDAY...THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL CUT OFF INTO AN UPPER LOW TODAY OVER THE TN VALLEY THEN DRIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. THE MEANDERING
SURFACE FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH INTO NORTHERN NC TODAY THEN RETURN
NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST FEW DAYS
THE MOST DIFFICULT PART OF THE FORECAST IS TRYING TO PROVIDE
DETAIL WITH REGARDS TO EXTENT/INTENSITY OF CONVECTION. THE AIRMASS
HAS NOT ESSENTIALLY CHANGED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. HIGHS
SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S INLAND AND MID 70S COAST. WITH STRONG DIURNAL
HEATING THIS WILL PRODUCE MODERATELY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH LI`S
OF -4 TO -7 AND MU CAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND SHEAR WILL BE WEAK BUT PULSE STORMS ARE LIKELY IN THIS
ENVIRONMENT WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALIZED
DAMAGING WINDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. THUS SPC HAS
PLACED ALL OF EASTERN NC IN A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK TODAY. IN
ADDITION TO THE WIND THREAT, WITH PW VALUES CONTINUING AROUND 2"
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL OCCUR. COVERAGE LIKELY TO BE DETERMINED
BY EFFECTS OF WEAK MID LEVEL PERTUBATIONS FORECAST TO ROTATE
AROUND THE CLOSED UPPER LOW MAINLY JUST WEST OF EASTERN NC. THERE
IS ENOUGH CONSENSUS IN THE MODELS TO SUPPORT 30-40% POPS SO WILL
MAKE NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM SUNDAY...EXPECTING DIURNAL CONVECTION TO DIMINISH BY
LATE EVENING BUT WITH MOIST/MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE
AND RESIDUAL OUTFLOWS COULD CONTINUE TO SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT SO WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY WITH TAIL
END OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
70S/UPPER 70S BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUN...UPPER LOW NEAR THE APPALACHIANS WEAKENS MON AS
IT LIFTS NNE BECOMING ABSORBED IN THE STRONGER NRN STREAM FLOW
AHEAD OF A ROBUST SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
BEST FORCING EXPECTED N/W OF THE AREA MON THOUGH STILL EXPECT
ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SCT/NUM SHOWER/TSTMS...WILL MAINTAIN HIGH CHANCE
POPS INLAND AND SLIGHTLY LESS ALONG THE COAST. A TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN RETURNS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE
BERMUDA HIGH POSITIONED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND THE PIEDMONT
TROUGH INLAND BRINGING WARM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION AND TYPICAL SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOUR. ISOLATED STRONG TSTMS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES
SUPPORT HIGHS NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...MID 80S/LOW 90S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S. MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INTO THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHICH MAY PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS...THOUGH UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL BE WEAKENING WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING ALOFT AS
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MOVING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM SATURDAY...STILL EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF
TYPICAL AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION SUNDAY WITH 20-40% COVERAGE
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. LATE TONIGHT GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT
COULD COULD BRIEFLY DECOUPLE LEADING TO PATCHY/SHALLOW FOG BUT
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUN...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THOUGH SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING WHICH WILL BRING PERIODS OF SUB-VFR. PATCHY
STRATUS/FOG ALSO POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT/EARLY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS THAT SEE HEAVIER RAINFALL.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE. PRES GRADIENT HAS
WEAKENED AS EXPECTED AND MOST OF WATERS WILL SEE SW 10-15 KT
TODAY. NRN WATERS WILL SEE VARIABLE CONDITIONS WITH WEAK FRONT
DROPPING INTO AREA FROM N.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 630 AM SUNDAY...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED AND SEAS HAVE
SUBSIDED 3 TO 5 FT SO HAVE CANCELLED ALL THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES. SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE AROUND 15 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD
ALL WATERS EXCEPT FAR NORTH WHERE SAGGING FRONT MAY CAUSE WINDS TO
BACK TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION LATE TODAY. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 2
TO 4 FT TODAY AND CONTINUE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUN...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN EXPECTED MON THROUGH
THU...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND TROUGHING INLAND. THIS WILL
RESULT IN PRED S/SWLY FLOW 10-20KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEAS
2-5FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME/JBM
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...SK/CQD
AVIATION...JME/CQD
MARINE...JME/JBM/CQD



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