Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 281739
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
139 PM EDT Wed Jun 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in from the west today, and then shift
offshore Thursday. High pressure remains offshore through the
weekend with troughing inland through early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 125 PM Wed...Current forecast in good shape; no update
needed.

Prev Dis...Temperatures have quickly warmed into the mid-60`s
inland, and into the low-70`s near the coast. Temperatures will
continue to quickly rise, with abundant sunshine throughout the
area. Afternoon highs are expected to reach the mid/upper 80s
inland, and the low 80s along the coast. Dry and mostly sunny
weather is expected today, with high pressure overhead and light
winds initially N/NE then shifting NE/E as the high pressure
begins to move off of the coast this afternoon into the evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
As of 645 AM Wed...Another clear night is expected with high
pressure in control. Low temps Wednesday night will not drop as
low as this morning, as winds become SSE and low level moisture
subtly returns to the region. Still, lows to around 60 are
expected inland, with upper 60s to low 70s likely along the
coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 4 AM Wednesday...High pressure will shift off the coast
Thursday with return southerly flow developing. Unsettled
weather returns Friday afternoon through Tuesday as scattered
showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day.

Thursday...Dry weather is expected through Thursday as high
pressure slowly shifts off the Mid-Atlantic coast. Winds become
more southeasterly on Thursday, allowing dew points to build
back into the mid 60s by late afternoon. Low level thicknesses
will range 1390-1400 meters Thursday, yielding max temps in the
mid to upper 80s across Eastern NC, with low 80s along the
coast.

Friday...A weak upper level disturbance will move into the
region Friday morning originating from the Gulf of Mexico.
Latest guidance indicates showers possible for the southern
half of the CWA on Friday. Will maintain trend of slight chance
PoPs increasing from the south starting late Thursday night into
early Friday morning. PoPs increase to 20 to 40 percent Friday,
highest across southern areas. Shower/thunderstorm activity
will shift to the coast and coastal waters Friday Night and have
chance PoPs along the coast for this. High temps will reach the
upper 80s inland with mid 80s for coastal areas.

Saturday through Tuesday...Scattered showers/thunderstorms are
possible each afternoon from Saturday to Tuesday and move
towards the coast overnight. Have broad chance PoPs for this
period with the highest PoPs over inland areas during the day,
and along the coast at night. A weak front may aid shower and
thunderstorm development Sunday. High temps will range from the
low 90s inland to mid 80s near the coast, with lows in the
lower to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Short Term /through 12Z Thursday/...
As of 125 PM Wed...High confidence for VFR conditions will
mostly dominate the TAF period. High pressure will continue
across the region with a few daytime clouds developing this
afternoon. Skies will clear tonight and winds become
calm...leading to the increase chance of shallow fog to develop.
Think the best areas will be KPGV and KEWN as they are located
next to the river. Any fog development will erode
away during the morning...leading to mostly clear skies and
light SE flow.


Long Term /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 4 PM Wednesday...VFR conditions are expected to prevail
through the period. Some brief sub-VFR periods are possible
Friday afternoon through Sunday as scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be possible, and could see some periods of
MVFR-IFR fog/low stratus early mornings beginning on Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Wednesday and Wednesday Night/...
As of 125 PM Wed...Current forecast in good shape; no update
needed.

Pre Dis...Winds for the rest of Wednesday and into
Wednesday night will generally be out of the N/NE at 10-15 kts,
with gusts to 20 kts, turning to the E later Wednesday evening.
Seas will mostly be 2-3 ft through the period.

Long Term /Thursday night through Sunday/...
As of 4 AM Wednesday...Fair boating conditions expected through
the long term, especially Thursday. Winds will shift SE Thursday
and remain light. SE flow around 10 KT gradually becomes more
southerly by Thursday night into Friday. By Saturday winds
become more southwest and increase to 10-15 kts. This will
continue into Sunday. Could see periods of 15 to 20 KT in the
outer waters Saturday and Sunday. Seas will be mostly 2-3 ft,
with some 4 ft seas possible beginning Saturday across the outer
fringes of the central and southern waters. NWPS and Wavewatch
appeared in good agreement through the medium range, with
Wavewatch reasonable for the extended period.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME/SGK
NEAR TERM...JME/BM/CJL
SHORT TERM...SGK
LONG TERM...RSB/SGK
AVIATION...RSB/BM
MARINE...RSB/JME/SGK/CJL



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