Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 301824
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
224 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A WEAK WAVE WILL DEVELOP
OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING BRINGING MUCH COOLER AND WINDY WEATHER FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 150 PM THURS...ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
AFTERNOON UPDATE AS THE ONGOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND STATES TONIGHT. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL WILL DEVELOP OFF THE COAST LATE TONIGHT AND MAINLY
IMPACT PORTIONS OF EASTERN NC ALONG AND EAST OF HWY 17. MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES INLAND TO CLOUDY SKIES ALONG THE COAST NEAR THE WEAK LOW
DEVELOPING ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY OFFSHORE. COOLER TEMPS
TONIGHT ESPECIALLY FOR INLAND SECTIONS WHERE LOWS WILL FALL INTO
THE MID 40S...WITH MID 50S ALONG THE COAST WHERE CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIP LATE MAY INHIBIT MAXIMUM RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOCAL BIAS
CORRECTED GRIDS NOT AVAILABLE DUE TO RECENT AWIPS UPGRADES SO
UTILIZED A NAM/GFS/ECMWF MOS BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM THURS...THE WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ALONG THE GULF STREAM FRIDAY BRINGING PRECIP TO
LOCATIONS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF HWY 17. INCREASED POPS TO
SLIGHT JUST INLAND OF THE COAST AND CHANCE POPS ALONG THE COAST.
THE DEVELOPING LOW WILL PINCH THE NORTHEAST GRADIENT ACROSS COASTAL
AREAS WITH NE WINDS IN THE 15-25 MPH RANGE FRIDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S WITH
A FEW MID 60S POSSIBLE ACROSS DUPLIN/ONSLOW/LENOIR COUNTIES ON THE
OUTER PERIPHERY OF THE WEAK COASTAL LOW. LOCAL BIAS CORRECTED
GRIDS NOT AVAILABLE DUE TO RECENT AWIPS UPGRADES SO UTILIZED A
NAM/GFS/ECMWF MOS BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THU...WEAK HIGH PRES JUST TO THE WEST AND LOW PRES
OFFSHORE WILL LEAD TO MAINLY DRY WX FRI WITH SOME SHRA POSS OVER
CSTL WTRS. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY SUNNY INLAND TO PC COAST WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S. AN INTENSE MID/UPR LOW OVER SRN GRT LAKE FRI EVENING
WILL DIVE SSE TO THE WRN CAROLINAS BY EARLY SAT. IN ADVANCE OF THE
THIS SYSTEM WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS FRI NIGHT WITH SOME SHRA POSS
LATE ESPCLY INLAND. AS THE UPR LOW SHIFTS E NEAR OR JUST S OF REGION
SAT WILL SEE SFC LOW DEVELOP OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY AND
SHIFT OFF THE COAST LATE. MDLS COMING INTO AGREEMENT THAT DECENT
CVRG OF RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD REGION SAT AND HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO
LIKELY. BEST CAA DOES NOT DEVELOP TILL LATE...HOWEVER WITH CLOUDS
AND PRECIP TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH MAINLY 50S ACROSS THE
REGION.

BIG STORY LATE SAT THRU FIRST PART OF SUN WILL BE STRONG NNW WINDS
THAT DEVELOP AS SFC LOW DEEPENS TO THE NE. WIND ADVISORY LOOKING
MORE LIKELY FOR CST ESPCLY OBX. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO SOME SOUNDSIDE FLOODING CONCERNS FOR OBX AS WELL. VERY COLD AIR
WILL POUR INTO THE REGION SAT NIGHT...HOWEVER DECENT MIXING WILL
PROB KEEP MINS ABOVE FREEZING INLAND WITH LIMITED FROST POTENTIAL.
COMBO OF COLD TEMPS AND WINDS WILL LEAD TO APPARENT TEMPS IN THE
UPR 20S TO LOWER 30S BY EARLY SUNDAY. THE STRONG HIGH WILL BUILD
CLOSER LATER SUN AND SUN NIGHT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS. HIGHS ONLY
EXPECTED TO BE IN LOW TO MID 50S SUNDAY DESPITE SUNNY SKIES.
WIDESPREAD KILLING FROST OR FREEZE LIKELY INLAND SUN NIGHT AS WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING DEVELOPS. WARMER WTR
AND DECENT BRZ WILL KEEP BEACHES WELL ABOVE FREEZING.

TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS BROAD UPPER RIDGE
SLOWLY BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA. MAY TAKE A WHILE TO DISLODGE THE COLD
AIR INITIALLY WITH EXPECTED HIGHS AROUND 60 MONDAY, MID AND UPPER
60S TUESDAY, AND NEAR 70 WEDNESDAY. MULTILAYERED RIDGE MOVES
OFFSHORE BY WED AND AN APPROACHING UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC
COLD FRONT MAY AFFECT THE AREA SOMETIME WED OR WED NIGHT BUT WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW UNTIL BETTER TIMING AND IMPACTS CAN
BE RESOLVED WITH LATER MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING TAF PERIOD. SCT TO
OCNL BKN SCU EXPECTED WITH NE WINDS THIS AFTN INTO EVENING...THEN
CLEARING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BUT
ENOUGH MIXING AND SUFFICIENT TEMP/DEW PT SPREADS TO PRECLUDE FOG
DEVELOPMENT. MID CLOUDS EXPECTED TO THICKEN FRI MORNING AS SHRT WV
MOVES ACROSS FROM SW.

LONG TERM /FRI THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THU...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONT FRI AS WITH HIGH PRES
JUST TO THE W. STRONG UPPER LOW DIVES SE INTO THE CAROLINAS SAT WITH
GOOD CVRG OF RAIN EXPECTED LEADING TO SUB VFR CIGS AND POSS VSBYS.
PREDOMINANT VFR WILL RETURN SAT NIGHT AND CONT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS LOW PRES MOVES NE AWAY FROM THE REGION AND SFC HIGH BUILDS EAST.
STRONG AND GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE SAT AND CONT INTO SUN AS
THE LOW PRES DEEPENS TO THE NE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM THURS...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE NE WINDS
10-20 KT WITH SEAS 3-5 FT NORTH TO 2-4 FT SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH OF THE WATERS WILL BRIEFLY PASS BY TO THE NORTH TONIGHT
WHILE A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST ALONG THE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE GULF STREAM
FRIDAY. NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE 10-20 KT RANGE THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH SEAS 2-5 FT...WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
SLIGHTLY FRIDAY AS THE GRADIENT PINCHES BETWEEN THE DEVELOPING LOW
AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA. SOME GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL
BE POSSIBLE FOR THE OUTER FRINGES OF THE COASTAL ZONES FROM OFF
ONSLOW BAY TO OFF DIAMOND SHOALS. GALE WATCHES MAY BE HOISTED WITH
THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE SO THAT WILL SUPERSEDE THE SCAS IN THE
IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM.

LONG TERM /FRI THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THU...HIGH PRES TO THE W AND LOW PRES OFF THE CST WILL
LEAD TO N WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS EARLY FRI WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING LATE.
THE GUSTY N WINDS WILL LEAD TO SEAS IN SOLID 5 FT RANGE OUTER WTRS
FRI MORN BUT WILL CONT TO KEEP JUST BELOW SCA LVLS. LULL IN WINDS
EXPECTED LATE FRI INTO EARLY SAT AS INIT HIGH WEAKENS AND WEAK LOW
BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER AREA AS INTENSE MID/UPR LOW DIVES SE INTO
CAROLINAS.  SEAS WILL DROP TO 2 TO 4 FEET FRI NIGHT AND EARLY SAT.

AS THE SFC LOW SHIFTS OFF THE CST LATER SAT AND DEEPENS NNW WINDS
WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE WITH GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL WTRS LATE
SAT/SAT EVENING THRU EARLY SUNDAY...SOME GUSTS TO STORM FORCE POSS
ESPCLY OUTER CNTRL AND NRN WTRS. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL LEAD TO
DANGEROUS 10 TO 15 FOOT SEAS OUTER WTRS SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER TO THE NE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE SLOWLY GRAD DROPPING BELOW SCA LVLS SUN
NIGHT INTO MON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...JBM/RF
MARINE...RF/DAG




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