Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 052229
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
629 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WILL
MOVE VERY SLOWLY NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH OVER EASTERN NC SUNDAY THEN LIFT NORTH OF
THE REGION MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME ANCHORED OFF THE
COAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH
THE AREA FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 615 PM THU...WENT WITH A FASTER END TO BULK OF PRECIP OVER
SW AND SRN SECTIONS THRU THE EVENING AS RAIN PIVOTS TO THE NE
AHEAD OF UPR LOW. LAST OF STORMS IS SLIDING E OF SRN CST SO EXPECT
MAINLY SHRA REST OF THE NIGHT. LATER TONIGHT RAIN LOOKS TO PERSIST
OVER FAR NRN/NW TIER WITH CONT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH JUST
SMALL CHC OF SHRA S. TIDE GAGE AT DUCK IS RUNNING 2 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL BUT SO FAR NO REPORTS OF ANY ISSUES. HIGHEST WATER LVLS
SHLD BE NEXT HOUR OR SO WITH HIGH TIDE THEN SHLD COME DOWN.

PREV DISC...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS SOUTH INTO THE
CAROLINAS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER THE EVENING
HOURS WITH LOSS OF HEATING. THE HIGHEST QPF SEEMS TO BE ANCHORED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA GIVEN BETTER MID/UPPER LEVEL
LIFT/DYNAMICS AND BETTER SFC CONVERGENCE WITH A SFC LOW DEVELOPING
OFFSHORE. A HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THIS MAY
LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING THANKS TO THE PLENTIFUL RAIN THAT FELL
DURING THE DAY LIGHT HOURS. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW 50S
TONIGHT AS THE COOL UPPER LOW BECOMES SITUATED OVER EASTERN NC
WITH FALLING LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES.

GIVEN HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST SURGE
FROM THIS MORNING, THERE MAY BE BRIEF COASTAL FLOODING IN BEAUFORT
ALONG FRONT STREET AND POSSIBLY UP IN DUCK ALONG HWY 12.  HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE ON THIS ARE LOW BUT WARRANTED A MENTION AT THIS POINT.
HIGH TIDE WILL BE AROUND 7PM TONIGHT, SO ANY COASTAL ISSUES WILL BE
CENTERED AROUND THAT TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THU...THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW REMAINS ANCHORED
ACROSS EASTERN NC THROUGH THE DAY. MEANWHILE THE SFC LOW THAT
DEVELOPED OFF THE COAST WILL LIFT TO THE NORTH AND EVENTUALLY
BECOMING INGESTED BY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW, MOVING NORTHWEST INTO
NEW ENGLAND. THIS MEANS THE CONTINUED POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE SYSTEMS BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED, SEEDING
MOISTURE INTO THE LOW/MID LEVELS. CURRENT THINKING IS PLENTY OF
CLOUD COVER AND SOME SHOWERS, MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. IF
ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OCCUR INLAND, MAY SEE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO WARRANT SCHC THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN
SUCH COLD AIR ALOFT AND STEP LAPSE RATES, HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN
THREAT FOR ANY CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 60S. CAN NOT RULE OUT TEMPERATURE
CLIMBING A BIT IF WE HAVE MORE BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER THAN
ORIGINALLY IS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM THURSDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS EASTERN
NC FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY THEN SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.
THIS WEAK BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK NORTH THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: THERE IS DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS
ON HOW MUCH INFLUENCE ON OUR AREA THAT A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
ROTATING AROUND AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER CLOSED LOW WILL
HAVE. NOT EXPECTING A LOT OF PRECIPITATION BUT CAN`T RULE A FEW
SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WILL INDICATE A 30% CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND KEEP SATURDAY DRY FOR NOW TO BLEND IN
WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. EXPECTING MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW TO
PERHAPS MIDDLE 70S INLAND AND AROUND 70 DEGREES ALONG THE
OUTER BANKS.

SUNDAY: SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP BRIEFLY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING BACKDOOR FRONT THAT IS PROGGED TO SLIDE SOUTH INTO
THE AREA LATE SUNDAY. THE FRONT IS NOW EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH OF
THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE MOISTURE STILL APPEARS TO BE
LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM, THE MODELS ARE GENERATING SOME
PRECIPITATION WITH THE NAM WETTEST AND ECMWF DRIEST BUT THERE IS
ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL IN THE GUIDANCE TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE POP
FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S INLAND LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S OUTER BANKS.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: THE FRONT EVENTUALLY LIFTS NORTH MONDAY
WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FOLLOWED BY SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPING TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS BETTER LIFT AND MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE REGION AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THIS PERIOD,
PERHAPS DROPPING A DEGREE OR TWO MONDAY GIVEN THE FRONT BISECTING
EASTERN NC. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW 80S INLAND TO MID 70S
ALONG THE COAST MONDAY. TEMPS RAMP UP TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH HIGHS INLAND INTO THE MIDDLE 80S AND MID 70S OUTER BANKS.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON/...
AS OF 615 PM THU...RAIN IS PIVOTING E OF TAF SITES AND EXPECT
MAINLY MVFR TO POSS VFR INTO MID TO LATE EVENING. LATER TONIGHT
FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW CLOUD BASES LOWERING AND EXPECT SOME IFR TO
RETURN HOWEVER TIMING AND COVERAGE OF IFR IN DOUBT AS NO WELL
DEFINED INVERSION PRESENT SO MAY SEE CONDITIONS BOUNCE AROUND
QUITE A BIT. RAIN SHLD SPREAD BACK IN ESPCLY NW TO NRN TIER TWRD
MORNING AND CONT INTO FRI WITH LIKELY CONT SUB VFR NRN TIER MOST
OF THE DAY WITH MVFR TO VFR SRN TIER.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM THURSDAY...SUB VFR AVIATION CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY, MAINLY DUE TO SHOWERS AND/OR MVFR
CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
EASTERN NC TAF SITES. GIVEN PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE,
SATURDAY MORNING COULD SEE LOW STRATUS/FOG DEVELOP. AVIATION
CONDITIONS IMPROVE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS DRIER AIR WORKS ITS
WAY INTO THE AREA. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES SUNDAY AHEAD OF A
WEAK AND MOISTURE-STARVED BACKDOOR FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS
EASTERN NC SUNDAY NIGHT, THEN LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION ON MONDAY.
ANY PRECIPITATION LATE SUNDAY WILL BE LIMITED SO EXPECTING
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 615 PM THU...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES PLANNED...NE WINDS
FINALLY DIMINISHING A BIT SOUNDS/NRN BEACHES SO WILL LET SCA END
SOUNDS THIS EVENING. THE PERSISTENT AND STRONG NE WINDS OVER
CNTRL AND NRN WTRS HAVE PRODUCED 7 TO 8 FOOT SEAS THESE WTRS AND
MAY NEED TO EXTEND SCA TIL LATER TONIGHT AS WILL TAKE A WHILE TO
COME DOWN DESPITE DIMINISHING WINDS.

PREV DISC...NORTHEAST SURGE CONTINUES BEHIND A BACKDOOR FRONT
THAT PUSHED THROUGH EARLIER THIS MORNING. AS THE FRONT PIVOTS
THROUGH THE AREA AND EVENTUALLY WEAKENS AS A SFC LOW DEVELOPS
OFFSHORE, EXPECT WINDS TO START DIMINISHING LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE FROM 5 TO 8 FEET
ACROSS THE NORTH/CENTRAL WATERS TO 3 TO 5 FEET BY THE OVERNIGHT.
THUS HAVE SCA FOR THE NORTH/CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH 06Z AND THE
SOUNDS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. AFTER THIS POINT, AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS
NORTH, EXPECT WINDS TO BE VARIABLE OVERNIGHT, 10 TO 15 KTS LATE.
SEAS WILL HAVE DROPPED TO 4 TO 5 FEET. AS THE LOW LIFTS FURTHER
NORTH FRIDAY, EXPECT WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SEAS AROUND 3 TO 5 FEET.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE
EASTERN NC WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY, WHILE A SURFACE LOW LIFTS
NORTH FROM OFF THE DELMARVA BY FRIDAY NIGHT, YIELDING MOSTLY
WESTERLY FLOW 10 TO 15 OVER THE WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY.
PREFRONTAL SW FLOW WILL BE BRIEFLY INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT
SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT THEN DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KT SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL SHIFT NORTH TO NORTHEAST 10 TO 15
KT BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY
AROUND 10 KT MONDAY AFTERNOON ALL WATERS. NOW EXPECTING SW FLOW
AROUND 15 KT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. 3 TO 5 FT SEAS FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FT SATURDAY THEN INCREASE TO 3 TO 5 FT
SUNDAY. SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING BEFORE INCREASING TO 3 TO 5 FT LATER TUESDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR NCZ103-104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ130-
     131-135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME/LEP
NEAR TERM...RF/LEP
SHORT TERM...LEP
LONG TERM...JME/DAG
AVIATION...RF/JME
MARINE...RF/JME/LEP


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