Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 212329
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
729 PM EDT Mon Aug 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will extend over the area from offshore through
Wednesday, then a cold front will move through Wednesday night
and Thursday. Strong high pressure will build in from the north
Friday through Sunday, while areas of low pressure move along
the stalled frontal boundary off the Southeast coast.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
As of 720 PM Monday...Radar currently clear across the area and
expect dry conditions through the evening. Models indicate we
will again have possible offshore activity spreading near
southern coast later overnight with surface flow becoming light
S-SW as high pressure continues to drift offshore. Kept POPs as
previously forecast with just a slight chance along coast after
2 AM. Patchy fog again possible for inland sections late
tonight. Min temps from lower 70s inland to mid to upper 70s
coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
As of 315 PM Monday...Expect similar conditions tomorrow as
today, with a bit more moisture and humidity as southerly flow
increases. Any lingering early morning fog and stratus will burn
off by mid morning. Will see a small chance of a shower
skirting the coast in the morning then 20 to 30 PoPs for the
afternoon for scattered sea breeze activity. Highs will be in
the lower 90s inland to mid to upper 80s along the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 3 pm Mon...Forecast remains on track with a quiet start
to the week followed by increasing rain chances Wednesday into
Thursday. Much cooler weather expected late week and this
weekend.

Tuesday night through Thursday...Hot and humid weather will
continue Wednesday ahead of the approaching cold front, with
high pressure extending over the area from offshore. Highs Wed
in the upper 80s to low 90s, dewpoints in the 70s, and heat
indices around 100 deg in the afternoon. The slow moving front
will push into the area Wednesday Night and Thursday. This front
will be an anafront with the best chance for precipitation
along and behind it. Will continue high chance to likely pops
developing ahead of the front Wed afternoon, with the most
likely period for precip coming Wednesday night into Thursday.
By Thursday however cooler air aloft, clouds, and rain chances
will keep high temps in the lower 80s.

Friday into Monday....Strong high pressure will build in from
the north, with broad upper troughing across the area, while
areas of low pressure are forecast to move along the stalled
front off the SE coast. Scattered showers Fri, with best
chances along the coast. Much drier air filters into the area
this weekend, with forecast soundings showing PWAT values
dropping below 1" Sat and Sun. Low level thickness values and
NE/E flow support temps several degrees below normal, with highs
in the upper 70s to low 80s and overnight lows 60-70 degrees.
Some guidance even has some inland spots dropping into the upper
50s this weekend. Depending on the track and strength of low
pressure areas off the coast this weekend, could see some
showers skirt the coastal areas but at this time expect bulk of
precip to remain offshore. By early next week however, rain
chances return as a stronger area of low pressure passes just to
the south and pushes moisture back into the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Short Term /through 12Z Tue/
As of 720 PM Monday...VFR Conditions currently prevail across
the area and this will continue through the evening. Expect
areas of fog/stratus will again be likely inland late tonight
and IFR to LIFR conditions will be possible at all TAF
locations and will slowly improve after sunrise through around
10 AM. Expect VFR to return for late morning through afternoon
with only a low chance for some scattered afternoon convection
along the sea breeze.

Long Term /Tue night through Sat/
As of 3 pm Mon...Sub-VFR conditions possible Wednesday into
Saturday in scattered showers and storms. NE flow developing
behind the cold front Wed night and Thu, could keep low stratus
locked in across the area into Thursday night before we see a
return pred VFR conditions Fri into Sat.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through Tuesday/...
As of 720 PM Monday...No changes with this update. Benign
conditions through Tuesday Morning with light winds and seas 2
to 3 feet. Winds become more southerly and increase through the
day on Tuesday to 10 to 15 KT by late afternoon. Seas build to 3
to 4 feet during the afternoon.

Long Term /Tue night through Sat/
As of 3 pm Mon...A prolonged period of moderate to strong NE
winds expected behind the front Thursday night through the
weekend. SCA conditions likely to develop this coming weekend,
as early as Friday.

High pressure will continue to extend over the waters from
offshore Tue night and Wed. The gradient will tighten Tue night
and Wed ahead of the front, with SW winds increasing to 10-15
kt and seas building to 3-5 ft. The slow moving front will push
through the waters Wed night and Thursday, with winds gradually
becoming NE 10-15 kt behind the front. Strong high pressure will
build in from the north Thu night and Fri, while areas of low
pressure are forecast to move along the stalled front off the SE
coast. NE winds will increase to 15-20 kt Thu night into Friday
with seas building to 4-6 ft. Gusty NE winds and rough seas are
expected to continue into the weekend and early next week.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RSB
NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM...RSB
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...RSB/HSA
MARINE...RSB/HSA



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