Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 250700
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
300 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY AND WEAKEN
SATURDAY. HOT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH MONDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. DRY
AND PLEASANT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BY MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PUSHED OFF THE COAST EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH WEAK SFC COOL FRONT ANALYZED ALONG THE CRYSTAL
COAST. THIS FRONT WILL WAVER IN THE VICINITY OR JUST OFF THE COAST
TODAY. WITH BOUNDARY LOCATED NEARBY...HAVE LEFT IN LOW CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES...AS DEVELOPING LIGHT SE FLOW AND FCST
CAPE VALS AOA 1000 J/KG AND MARGINAL SHEAR...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
CONVECTION BREAKING OUT ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN AREAS TODAY.
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN YESTERDAY`S
ACTIVITY. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALS TODAY DROP A BIT WITH LIGHT NE
FLOW AND SUGGEST HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPR 80S...LOW 80S OBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...WINDS DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH ANY
CONVECTION DIMINISHING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. SKIES BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH HIGH PRES BRIEFLY RIDGING IN. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR CLIMO
WITH UPPER 60S INLAND TO LOW 70S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 206 AM FRI...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL AND
SURFACE FEATURES. SOME DEVIATION BY THURSDAY ON TIMING OF UPPER
TROUGH AND STRENGTH OF SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE COAST ON THURSDAY.
BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF COUNTRY WITH TROUGHIN
CONTINUING OVER THE EAST COAST WITH MAINLY ZONAL FLOW OVER EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WEAK RIDGE AT THE SURFACE WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW. TROUGHING AT THE SURFACE TO FORM OVER CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA ON SUNDAY WITH AN INCREASE ON SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. FRONT
DROPS INTO THE TROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH GOOD INSTABILITY. FRONT
PUSHES OFFSHORE TUESDAY MORNING WITH NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...LOW CIGS IN MVFR/IFR OVERNIGHT AS WEAK NE FLOW
AND SUBTLE FRONTAL INVERSION DEVELOPS BEHIND COOL FRONT. FRONT
WILL WAVER NEAR THE VCNTY OF CRYSTAL COAST TODAY. COULD BE AN ISO
SHOWER/STORM ESP NEAR KOAJ AND KEWN THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND
WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NE EARLY
VEERING SE LATE IN THE DAY. SKIES MO CLEAR TONIGHT WITH SOME
RADIATION FG/BR POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 210 AM FRI...MAINLY DRY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HOWEVER CANT
RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER. EXPECT FLYING CONDITIONS TO BE VFR THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH EXCEPTION OF PREDAWN HOURS WITH POSSIBILITY OF
PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS LOWERING CONDITIONS TO SUB VFR WITH LIGHT
WIND AND WET GROUND. FRONT WILL APPROACH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
MONDAY AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN THE STORMS.
FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...LIGHT NNE WINDS IN NORTHERN WATERS TO LIGHT SOUTH
FLOW SOUTHERN WATERS AS WEAK COOL FRONT BISECTING THE AREA. WINDS
VEER AROUND TO EAST THEN SOUTHEAST BY LATE DAY WITH SEAS REMAINING
ONLY IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE. LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW TONIGHT NO
HIGHER THAN 10 KTS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 216 AM FRI...VARIABLE FLOW SATURDAY MORNING WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE DAY
ON SATURDAY AS SURFACE TROUGHING SETS UP OVER CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN THROUGH THE NIGHT SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WITH SPEEDS APPROACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA SUNDAY
NIGHT AS FRONT DROPS INTO TROUGH. FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH SPEEDS DROPPING BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY.

SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET THROUGH THE WEEKEND...INCREASING TO 5 FEET IN THE
OUTER WATERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND UP TO 7 FEET AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...CGG/TL
MARINE...CGG/TL






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