Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
FXUS62 KMHX 281810
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
210 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2016
Bermuda high pressure offshore with a trough inland will persist
through the weekend. A weak cool front will approach from the
northwest early next week then stall near the area by mid week.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 210 PM Thursday...Dangerous heat expected into the evening
with temps 95 to 100 inland and heat index values 108 to 114 most
spots. Satl shows cu developing...espcly near sea breeze and radar
shows a few cells forming. Expect widely sct storms to cont to
fire this afternoon per strong instab with sfc based capes 3500 to
5000 highest nrn tier. Wind gust parameters from modified 12z
sounding are high and any storms that do form could produce
damaging wind gusts. Storms shld dissipate after sunset and expect
dry weather overnight. Light sw breeze will persist overnight with
very muggy lows 75 to 80 inland and lower 80s coast.
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
As of 210 PM Thursday...Models similar in showing a little drier
air over the region. This shld lead to less instab and given lack
of forcing will cont with just isold TSRA threat for the
afternoon inland. Highs again well into the 90s however with
dewpts forecast to be a little lower shld have heat index values
103 to 108.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 3am Thu...The hot and mainly dry pattern will be shifting
toward a wetter and slightly cooler one during the long term. The
axis of the Bermuda high will shift further south with broad upper
trof through much of the period, with numerous shortwaves moving
through the flow over a warm, humid, unstable airmass. Piedmont
trof will remain in place through the weekend. Next week though,
the frontal boundary to the north will slowly move south, reaching
the NC/VA border 12Z Tuesday, then further south to the southern
coastal area 12Z Wednesday. There will be a better chance for
storms Saturday as the Piedmont trof shifts toward the coast and
models depict a shortwave moving through during the day, with a
similar setup for Sunday. PoPs go up further to likely early next
week, with the frontal boundary moving south into the warm, humid,
unstable airmass at the surface, while the upper trof sharpens a
bit with several disturbances moving through the flow. Highs in
the lower to mid 90s will continue into Saturday, with slightly
cooler temps thereafter due to increased cloud cover and better
chances for convection.
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Short term /Through Friday/...
As of 1230 PM Thursday...High confidence in mainly VFR thru the
period. Limited coverage of storms expected later today and this
evening with small chc of brief sub VFR along with threat of gusty
winds at TAF sites if a storm crosses. Despite high low lvl
moisture think there will be enuf of a breeze later tonight to
limit threat of fog developing. Only very slight chc of a storm
Fri as low lvls dry a bit.
Long Term /Friday Night through Monday/
As of 3am Thu...Pattern become more stormy as the Bermuda high
shifts south and a frontal boundary approaches from the north
early next week. Sub-VFR in scattered convection Saturday, and
numerous Sunday and Monday. Surface winds S 5-10 knots Saturday,
SW 10 knots or less Sunday and Monday.
Short Term /Tonight and Fri/
As of 210 PM Thursday...High pres offshore with trof to the W
will cont with SW winds 10 to 20 kts late today into tonight
highest srn tier. Gradient tightens a bit Fri and SW winds will
be 15 to 20 kts with some gusts to around 25 kts srn tier. Seas 2
to 4 feet tonight build to 3 to 5 feet Fri...again highest outer
Long Term /Fri Night through Monday/
As of 3am Thu...SW flow continues through the period. Axis of
Bermuda high will shift further south, while a frontal boundary
approaches from the north early next week, with the result being
an increasing chance of seeing thunderstorms across the marine
zones. Flow will continue from the SW through the period, with
10-20 knots and seas 2-4 feet on the coastal waters, and 5-15
knots on the adjacent sounds and rivers.
NC...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ029-
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ103.