Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 252339
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
619 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will extend over the area from offshore through
Friday night producing above normal temperatures. Weak low
pressure will approach from the south Saturday through Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 615 PM Wednesday...High pressure surface and aloft will
continue to produce warm dry weather across the area. The surface
high will continue to extend west into the area from the Atlantic
overnight producing clear skies and light winds. Low temperatures
will range from the lower to middle 60s inland and mid to upper
60s beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
As of 3 PM Wednesday...Bermuda High off the southeast coast will
continue to ushering in warmer air into the area. SW flow will be
fairly light. Have noted a bit more moisture in the mid levels,
thus we may see an increase in cloud cover in the afternoon,
especially along the seabreeze and moving inland. Otherwise,
mainly sunny skies and above normal temperatures, upper 80s
inland to upper 70s along the OBX.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 230 PM Wednesday...Little change in overall forecast with
warm dry weather Friday, followed by unsettled weather and
enhanced rain chances with possible subtropical/tropical system
over the weekend into early next week.

Thursday Night through Friday: Axis of strong NVA moving west from
the Atlantic and westward push of Bermuda Ridge should keep
Thursday night and Friday dry across the region. With axis of
mid-level ridge overhead, high temperatures Friday will be quite
warm with mid/upper 80s inland and lower 80s Outer Banks.

Friday night through Wednesday: Not much has changed with regards
to forecast evolution of surface low moving northwest from the
Bahamas that could be a subtropical/tropical system over the
weekend of the GA/SC coast. GFS/ECMWF ensembles continue to be in
good agreement with the Canadian being the outlier, as it develops
a rather strong system and brings it into the Myrtle Beach area
Saturday night. Will lean toward a GFS/ECMWF ensemble blend which
essentially is the same as yesterday, showing the surface low
meandering to our south given a rather weak mid-level flow. Both
models depict waves of showers affecting our region starting
Saturday and continuing into early next week. The wettest period
appears to be from Sunday afternoon through Monday, but based on MOS
guidance and surrounding offices, have kept PoPs in the high chance
(40-50% chance) through this period. If the system is able to
develop a bit, latest 5-day QPF estimates show 1-2 inches possible
along the coast through early Monday. No big temperature swings in
this period with highs generally low/mid 80s and lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Short Term /Through Thursday/...
As of 615 PM Wednesday...High confidence in mainly VFR conditions
through the TAF period as high pressure continues over the area
producing mostly clear skies and light winds. There are some
indications in the guidance that shallow ground fog could develop
after 09z tonight but this is not expected to significantly
impact aviation operations.

Long Term /Thursday Night through Monday/...
As of 230 PM Wednesday...VFR conditions are likely Thursday night
and Friday as surface ridge lingers offshore and the mid-level
ridge crests over the region. Model guidance continues to indicate
surface low, possible subtropical/tropical, to form and move
toward the GA/SC coast Saturday into Monday. This will result in
an increase in shower activity through the period with the
greatest coverage of rain likely to be Sunday afternoon into
Monday. Sub-VFR conditions will be likely with some convective
activity possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Through Thursday/...
As of 615 PM Wednesday...Pleasant boating conditions will continue
through the period with high pressure off the southeast coast
influencing the weather. Expect SW winds 5 to 10 knots during the
overnight/early morning increasing to 10-15 knots in the
afternoon. Seas will remain 2-3 feet.

Long Term /Thursday Night through Monday/...
As of 235 PM Wednesday...With surface high pressure lingering
offshore and the axis of the mid-level ridge in place, light se/s
winds at 5-10 knots with seas 2-3 feet can be expected Thursday
night and Friday. Local SWAN model continues to show increased SE
swell energy and building seas for Saturday through Sunday with 6
foot seas possible from Oregon Inlet south, especially over the
outer waters, with SCA conditions a good possibility. Seas
diminish to 3-5 feet by Sunday night into Monday as surface low
meanders to our south.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LEP
NEAR TERM...JME/LEP
SHORT TERM...LEP
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...JME/CTC
MARINE...JME/CTC/LEP



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