Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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791
FXUS62 KMHX 181136
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
636 AM EST Thu Jan 18 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Deep low pressure just off the coast today will lift quickly
northeast. High pressure will build in from the west today
through the weekend. A cold front will cross the region Tuesday
morning followed by high pressure on Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 6 am Thu...Snow is hanging on a little longer across
downeast Carteret County and the Outer Banks portions of Dare
and Hyde counties. Have extended Winter Storm Warning for those
3 counties through 9 am. Winds have dropped below advisory
criteria along the Outer Banks so have cancelled wind advisory.
No other changes made. Expect rapid clearing this morning as
low lifts out with sunny skies throughout by mid- morning.

Cold and dry conditions will follow the offshore low pressure
system today, with high temps only in the upper 30s to around 40
degrees across the area. Most locations will rise above
freezing between 10am and noon. Area roadways will likely remain
dangerous until temps rise above freezing and melting begins.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
As of 3 am Thu....Surface ridge over the lower MS valley today
will pass to the south tonight. Clear skies and a light west
wind expected. Low temps will quite cold, with low to mid 20s
inland and upper 20s/30 along the coast. Black ice on area
roadways expected as melted snow from today will very quickly
re-freeze this evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 340 AM Thursday...Friday through Sunday...High pressure
moving off the coast, and rising heights will allow temperatures
to warm above average over the weekend, with dry weather
expected. Highs Fri will be in the 50s, and around 60 Sat and
Sun.

Monday through Tuesday...A cold front will approach Mon
bringing a threat of showers to area by evening. More widespread
showers are expected Monday night as the front moves into the
area. Increased pops to high chance Mon night. Mild
temperatures will continue ahead of the front with highs in the
lower to middle 60s expected Mon. The front is now forecast to
cross the area Tuesday morning so will include low chance PoPs.
Temps will continue mild with highs in the low 60s.

Wednesday and Thursday...Dry and slightly cooler conditions
will be forecast for Wednesday and Thursday behind the front
with highs in the 50s expected both days.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Short Term /Through Tonight/...
As of 635 AM Thursday...Drier air filtering across the area as
coastal low moves away from the coast is eroding cloud cover and
expect SKC/VFR conditions for the remainder of the TAF period.
Gusty NW/W winds around 20 kt are expected through early this
afternoon.

Long Term /Friday through Monday/...
As of 340 AM Thursday...Pred VFR conditions expected through
the period with dry high pressure over the area.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through Tonight/...
As of 635 AM Thursday...Winds are beginning to slowly subside
early this morning with Gale Force winds being reported across
the Pamlico Sound and central waters. Gale Warnings remain in
effect for the Pamlico Sound and central waters with Small Craft
Advisories in effect for the remainder of the waters.

Latest obs indicate N winds 20-30 kt with gusts to 35 kt and seas
of 7-11 ft. Winds will diminish below Gale Force by late
morning and below 25 kt by late afternoon. Winds this evening
will be W/NW 15 to 20 kt diminishing to 10 to 15 kt by Friday
morning. Seas will subside below 6 ft southern waters late
today, north of Oregon Inlet late this evening, and early Friday
morning across the central waters.

Long Term /Friday through Monday/...
As of 340 AM Thursday...Friday and Saturday W/SW flow 10-15 kt
is expected with seas 2-4 ft. Light winds and slight seas
expected Sunday into early Monday, generally 10 kt or less with
seas 1-3 ft. Expecting increasing southerly winds to 10 to 15 kt
and 2 to 3 ft seas Monday afternoon ahead of the approaching
cold front.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 340 AM Thursday...A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in
effect for Outer Banks Dare and Hyde counties as strong NNW
winds will lead to minor soundside flooding, especially in the
Hatteras area and Ocracoke.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Winter Storm Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for NCZ095-
     103-104.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for NCZ103-
     104.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for AMZ130-
     131-136-137.
     Gale Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for AMZ135-152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ156-
     158.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...HSA
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...JME
MARINE...JME/CQD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX



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