Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 222051
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
351 PM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017

.NEAR TERM /Now Through Monday/...Sharp long-wave upper level
trough axis exiting the Plains this evening is progged to make
steady eastward progress to the Lower MS River Delta late tonight
then pivots over the heart of the forecast area by daybreak
Monday. Ahead of the eastward moving trough axis this evening,
the local area remains on the favored side for enhanced deep
layer ascent within an anomalously high moist environment
(PWAT`s) ~ 2.00 inches. Radar is quite active with widespread
showers/storms streaming northward off the Gulf. Efficient warm
rain processes today have resulted in heavy rainfall rates and
excessive storm totals mainly over the coastal zones where area
mesonet sites and NWS surface observing equipment have reported
upwards of 2 to 4 inches with a few sites reporting 5+ inches.
Thus, with the front still to the west and additional rains
developing upstream to expand into the area tonight, could have
some isolated flash flooding problems and will increase the local
flood threat level to elevated over the coastal zones this
evening. There remains some potential for a few tornadoes this
evening generally east of the convective band as well. Stay
weather aware tonight.

As best dynamics shift east, categorical chances (80 to 100%) of
showers and storms this evening over much of the area shifts east
to the eastern half of the area by midnight and into the pre-dawn
hours Monday. Rain chances progged to slowly taper off over the
western zones through the course of the night. Attendant frontal
passage occurs Monday morning, bringing an end to the rain.
Overnight lows dropping off into the mid to upper 50s over the
northwest zones by daybreak while mid to upper 60s elsewhere.
Daytime highs Monday in lower to mid 70s interior to mid to upper
70s coast. /10

.SHORT TERM /Monday night Through Wednesday night/...A reinforcing
frontal boundary sweeps southward over the deep south Monday
night, bringing lowering deep layer thickness values, deep layer
dry air and lowering temperatures which last into the middle of
the week. To begin the short term, much cooler conditions to start
the morning commute to work or school Tuesday morning with
temperatures in the lower to mid 50s interior, 56 to 62 coast.
Daytime highs on Tuesday in the lower to mid 70s which is a few
degrees below climatic normals. The coolest period is Tuesday
night and Wednesday where lows will likely dip down into the 40s
for much of the area. The exception being right along the beaches
where numbers in the lower to mid 50s forecast. Wednesday`s highs
in the mid to upper 60s for most locations. /10

.LONG TERM /Thursday Through Sunday/...A moderation in highs and
lows anticipated to close out the week as surface high pressure
lifts up across the southeast. Highs Thursday and Friday trend
back into the 70s. Lows Friday and Saturday mornings in the lower
to mid 50s interior to lower to mid 60s coast.

Next cold front appears to dive into the deep south by Friday and
pushes thru Saturday, bringing a return to a small chance of
showers and storms through Saturday night. Of note: there is a
high degree of disagreement in the weather models with the timing
of next weekend`s frontal passage which will dictate temperature
forecasts going into Saturday or Sunday. For now, the blended
guidance suggests highs will lower back into the lower to mid 60s
by Sunday with morning lows lowering into the mid to upper 40s
interior. /10

&&

.MARINE...An unsettled pattern continues tonight ahead of a cold
front approaching from the west. Winds, waves and seas will be
locally higher in and near showers and storms tonight. Visibility
likely to be reduced to less than a mile as well, with the passage
of heavy rain. Frontal passage is forecast Monday morning, bringing
a wind shift and an end to showers and storms in its wake. A light,
to at times moderate northwest flow continues into the middle of
the week before turning more onshore by late week with high pressure
lifting up into the southeast. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      58  75  52  72 /  80   0   0   0
Pensacola   66  76  55  73 / 100  10   0   0
Destin      70  80  55  75 / 100  50   0   0
Evergreen   64  74  49  72 /  90  10   0   0
Waynesboro  55  72  50  70 /  80   0   0   0
Camden      61  73  49  70 / 100  10   0   0
Crestview   70  77  52  74 / 100  40   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk until 1 AM CDT Monday for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 1 AM CDT Monday for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ650-
     655-670-675.

&&

$$

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