Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KMOB 270046 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
746 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM UPDATE...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING CLOUDS
THINNING OUT OVER THE FORECAST AREA JUST PRIOR TO SUNSET...WHILE
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DETECTING DISSIPATING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD. DUE TO COMBINATION OF THE THINNING CLOUDS DUE
TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING A WEAK LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE...SATURATED
GROUNDS DUE TO RECENT HEAVY WINDS AND NEARLY CLAM WINDS...EXPECT
PATCHY FOG TO FORM AROUND MIDNIGHT ACROSS OUR INLAND ZONES...
FOLLOWED BY AREAS OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS OUR INLAND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI ZONES...INLAND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND ALL OF SOUTH
CENTRAL ALABAMA AFTER 4 AM TONIGHT. THE AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL THEN
PERSIST THROUGH 9 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE PHYSICAL SOLUTION OF
THREE OF OUR SHORT TERM MODELS...THE HRRR...RAP AND NAM ARE ALL IN
AGREEMENT SHOWING AREAS OF DENSE FOG FORMING ACROSS THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS BETWEEN THAT TIME FRAME. SO...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL FORM DUE TO ALL THE
ABOVE MENTIONED INGREDIENTS.

WITH THE DEPARTING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL BE RAIN-FREE OVERNIGHT...BUT KEPT A MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA...WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MIXING IN ALONG THE COAST LATE
TONIGHT. ALSO MADE EDITS TO DECREASE THE CLOUD COVERAGE THIS
EVENING...WITH LOW CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN INCREASING AND FOG DEVELOPING
AFTER MIDNIGHT. GRIDS AND PUBLIC PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY. /22

AVIATION...
27.00Z ISSUANCE...WILL BEGIN WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF SITES
AND THE REGION THROUGH 27.09Z...FOLLOWED BY MVFR CEILING (~1500 TO
2000 FEET) AND VISIBILITY (~4SM TO 6SM) DEVELOPING. THIS FOG WILL
THEN LIFT BY 27.14Z...FOLLOWED BY VFR CONDITIONS. ADDED A PROB30
GROUP FROM 27.14Z TO 27.20Z AS DAYTIME HEATING AND ADEQUATE MOISTURE
LEADS TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGHOUT THE DAY. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...A LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE
EXTREME WESTERN ATLANTIC WEAKENS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A WELL DEFINED
SHORTWAVE TROF OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION.  ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE
ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION THAT MOVED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
CONTINUES EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT WHILE A SERIES OF LESSER
SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES IN THE
WEAKENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

THE CONVECTION EXITING TO THE EAST HAS DRIVEN AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
WELL INTO THE CENTRAL GULF WITH OTHER WEAKER BOUNDARIES POSSIBLY
ALSO PRESENT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF.  A TRANSIENT LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THESE FEATURES HAS GIVEN WAY TO A
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AS A SURFACE RIDGE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE...ASSOCIATED
WITH THE EXITING CONVECTION TO THE EAST...IS SHIFTING SLOWLY
EASTWARD.  THIS EXITING SURFACE RIDGE AND THE LARGER SCALE SYNOPTIC
SCALE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES FAVOR A CONTINUING
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  WITH THIS LIGHT RETURN FLOW
IN PLACE...EXPECT THE BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF AND THE OTHER
POSSIBLE WEAKER BOUNDARIES TO RETURN NORTHWARD BACK INTO THE
FORECAST AREA.

THESE SURFACE FEATURES AND A CONTINUING SERIES OF SHORTWAVES OVER
THE FORECAST AREA AND DEVELOPING MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT NEAR
305K WILL SUPPORT REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH THE TIMING
OF ONSET IS DIFFICULT.  HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS
EVENING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT FOR THE EASTERNMOST PORTION
FOR THE DEPARTING AND WEAKENING CONVECTION.  HAVE OPTED TO RETURN
LOW END CHANCE POPS TO MUCH OF THE AREA FOR THE LATE NIGHT HOURS FOR
POTENTIAL REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION...BUT THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE
IN PLACE FOR WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE ASSISTANCE OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR NEARLY THE ENTIRE AREA.  LOWS TONIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO LOWER 70S NEAR THE COAST AND
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE MID 80S. /29

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER ENERGY CAUSING THE
CURRING THE CURRENT ROUND OF WEATHER OVER THE AREA MOVES
NORTHEAST...WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH RAIN-CHANCES
DECREASING FROM THE CURRENT LIKELY. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES/UPPER SYSTEM
DIMPLE THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST...WEAKENING IT...AND IN
THE PROCESS...WEAKENING THE SURFACE RIDGE RIDGE STRETCHING WEST OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. THE RIDGE DOES REMAIN INTACT ENOUGH FOR
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER
VALLEY AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.

WITH THE DECREASE IN RAIN...AND BUY ASSOCIATION MOISTURE AND
CLOUDINESS...THE DIURNAL TEMP RANGE OPENS. OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL...BUT
REMAIN A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS. DAYTIME HIGHS HIGH RISE TO AROUND
SEASONAL LEVELS.

LONG TERM...(FRIDAY ON)...FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...A LAST
SHORTWAVE PASSES OVER THE FA...BRINGING A TEMP INCREASE IN THE CHANCE
OF RAIN FRIDAY. GUIDANCE IS PRETTY CONSISTENT IN THIS LATEST ROUND
NOT LASTING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE LEFT OUT ANY CHANCE OF RAIN
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...QUIET PERIOD IN THE FORECAST...WITH
NO PASSING UPPER ENERGY TO ENHANCE THE CHANCES OF RAIN...SO HAVE WENT
WITH BELOW SEASONAL CHANCES...AND TEMP A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF UPPER ENERGY WORKS ITS WAY
EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS BEFORE FORMING AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MISS
RIVER VALLEY BY TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE ON THE INCREASE...
ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. TEMPS...ESPECIALLY
DAYTIME HIGHS DROP TO BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS WITH THE INCREASE IN THE
RAIN OVER THE FA...THOUGH AM EXPECTING THEM TO REMAIN IN THE 80S.

MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL
MAINTAIN A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE
HIGHER NEAR SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      70  85  68  87  68 /  20  60  40  50  20
PENSACOLA   72  85  71  85  71 /  30  60  40  50  20
DESTIN      74  84  73  84  72 /  30  40  40  50  20
EVERGREEN   68  86  66  87  65 /  20  70  50  60  20
WAYNESBORO  68  85  67  86  66 /  30  70  40  40  20
CAMDEN      68  84  66  87  66 /  30  70  50  60  20
CRESTVIEW   67  88  66  88  66 /  20  70  40  60  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR BUTLER-
     CHOCTAW-CLARKE-CONECUH-COVINGTON-CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA-MONROE-
     UPPER BALDWIN-UPPER MOBILE-WASHINGTON-WILCOX.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR LOWER
     BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE.

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR COASTAL
     ESCAMBIA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA.

MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR GEORGE-
     GREENE-PERRY-STONE-WAYNE.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.