Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 300942
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
442 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES AROUND
THE BASE OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE PLAINS...PASSING OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY. WITH THE
PASSING SHORTWAVE...GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING SOME WEAK MID/UPPER
LEVEL JET ENHANCEMENT WORKING WITH AFTERNOON MUCAPES RISING INTO THE
1000-2000J/KG RANGE TO CREATE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. HELICITY VALUES WILL BE
LIMITED...GENERALLY AROUND 100M^2/S^2...BUT ENOUGH FOR SOME
ORGANIZATION. AT THIS POINT...CONSENSUS IS FOR THE CURRENT QLCS
ACTIVITY OVER EAST TEXAS WORKING IT`S WAY EAST ACROSS LOUISIANA AND
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TODAY...WEAKENING DURING THE
MORNING...THEN STRENGTHENING THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LINE REACHES THE
MORE UNSTABLE AIR FORMING OVER THE FA TODAY. BEST COVERAGE OF RAIN
IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA...TAPERING OFF AS
ONE HEADS EAST OVER FA. WITH GREATER PRECIP COVERAGE ALONG WITH
THICKER CLOUD COVER OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA...AM EXPECTING A
LOWER TO HIGHER...WEST TO EAST...GRADIENT OF TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
FA TODAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 80S WEST TO UPPER
80S EAST.

TONIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES OFF...BUT WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER FROM TODAY`S THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL BE LIMITED...SO SUMMER-LIKE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S EXPECTED...WELL ABOVE SEASONAL. BEST CHANCE OF ANY RESIDUAL
SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO BE OVER NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE FA.
/16

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WIND FLOW UP TO AROUND 600 MB WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A LARGE POSITIVELY TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM EASTERN CANADA TO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. TWO
EMBEDDED LOW PRESSURE AREAS ARE EXPECTED IN THE TROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH ONE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE OTHER OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. BOTH UPPER LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FILL AND LIFT
NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY AS THE ENTIRE UPPER TROUGH FLATTENS. A THIRD
UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTH OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND
MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE MONDAY. MEANWHILE A SURFACE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST STATES WILL WEAKEN AND PULL
EASTWARD ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND STALL. UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL CONTINUE TO PASS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE INSTABILITY AND WIND
SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG STORMS PRODUCING
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY SURFACE WINDS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM 82 TO 87 DEGREES INLAND
AREAS...AND AROUND 80 DEGREES AT THE BEACHES. HIGH TEMPERATURES
MONDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER. LOW TEMPERATURES BOTH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHTS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 6OS INLAND AREAS...WITH
LOWER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. /22

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...THE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE DEEP SOUTH TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY FORCE THE STALL COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE STALL FRONT WILL MAINTAIN A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS...WITH THE
PRECIPITATION ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. IT
STILL APPEARS THE INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG STORMS PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
SURFACE WINDS UNTIL THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION. /22

&&

.MARINE...A SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING WEST OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST WILL CREATE A LIGHT TO AT TIMES MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW
WILL LAST INTO MONDAY. A WEAKENING SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTH
TO NEAR THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY (DEPENDING UPON WHICH
GUIDANCE ONE GOES WITH)....BRINGING A LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE
FLOW THROUGH MID WEEK. /16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      84  70  84  68 /  60  40  40  20
PENSACOLA   83  71  83  70 /  30  20  20  20
DESTIN      82  73  82  72 /  20  10  20  10
EVERGREEN   87  67  86  66 /  40  20  60  30
WAYNESBORO  84  68  83  65 /  80  50  60  30
CAMDEN      86  67  84  66 /  50  40  60  30
CRESTVIEW   87  67  86  68 /  20  20  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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