Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 251552 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
952 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO INCLUDE HIGHER WINDS/WIND
GUSTS AWAY FROM THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE OVER
THE MIDSOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW
LAYER WIND FIELDS WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
OVER THE AREA SHOWING 25-30 KT OF WIND AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CORRESPOND TO FREQUENT GUSTS OF
25-30 MPH OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH OCCASIONALLY HIGHER GUSTS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE
THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME. 34/JFB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 743 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

UPDATE...A LARGE SWELL PROPAGATING FROM WELL OFFSHORE COMBINED WITH
A STRONG WESTERLY WIND FLOW DEVELOPING LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL
RESULT IN A HIGH RISK FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE GULF
BEACHES OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
32/EE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 458 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...BROAD UPPER TROF OVER MUCH OF MS RIVER VALLEY AND EASTERN
CONUS WILL SHIFT EAST AND DIG OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND NORTHERN GULF
THROUGH TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHERN
GULF THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING A MODERATE TO STRONG
WESTERLY FLOW TO THE REGION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH WINDS
POSSIBLY GUSTING TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS OVER LOWER SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT WILL MONITOR
CLOSELY FOR A POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY IN THESE AREAS LATER TODAY AND
EARLY TONIGHT. SKIES WILL START OUT MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY WITH
INCREASING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS FOR MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
TONIGHT...THEN CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON MON. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER
MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY DUE TO GOOD SOLAR INSOLATION FOR MOST
AREAS EARLY IN THE DAY. HIGHS WILL CLIMB TO THE MIDDLE 60S FOR MOST
INLAND AREAS AND THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST. FOR
TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE FOR
LOWS TONIGHT DUE TO CLOUDS AND CONTINUE MIXING. 32/EE

FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE EASTERN
STATES MOVES SLOWLY OFF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WHILE A SURFACE
LOW OVER THE EAST CENTRAL STATES DEEPENING WHILE MOVING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST WITH A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT.  A DRY DEEP LAYER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER
THE AREA WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.  HIGHS ON MONDAY
WILL BE PRIMARILY IN THE MID 50S WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S.  LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S INLAND TO NEAR 40 CLOSE TO THE COAST AND LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR. /29

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...WHILE THE LONGWAVE TROF
CONTINUES SLOWLY OFF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...A STRONG SHORTWAVE
AMPLIFIES INTO AN UPPER TROF WHICH ADVANCES INTO THE EASTERN STATES
ON THURSDAY AND LATER INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW ADVANCES FROM THE PLAINS AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR EASTERN
STATES...MEANWHILE BRINGING A COLD FRONT  THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT.  HAVE CONTINUED WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH
SATURDAY...EXCEPT HAVE INCLUDED SMALL POPS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS MARGINALLY
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE PRESENT.  A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WARM TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT THEN WILL BE NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. /29

AVIATION...
25.12Z ISSUANCE...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 26.12Z. EXPECT A FEW MID TO HIGH CLOUDS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY AND OVERNIGHT THEN CLEARING FROM
WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING. WINDS WILL BE WEST
AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS EARLY TODAY INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING THEN GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MON MORNING. 32/EE

MARINE...A STRONG WESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MARINE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
IS REINFORCED FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS A RESULT A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA STARTING AT 3 PM
CST THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD
TO 8 TO 10 FEET WELL OFFSHORE WINDS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MON
MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH LATE MONDAY THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF. A LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST
TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND WESTERN ATLANTIC. 32/EE

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO NOON MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...MISSISSIPPI
     SOUND...NORTHERN MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...
     PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO
     PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...

&&

$$








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