Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 041634 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1134 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.UPDATE...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE CURRENT ZONE FORECAST MAINLY TO
LOWER POPS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW LESS COVERAGE IN THESE AREAS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS DO DEPICT LESS
MOISTURE IN THESE AREAS WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. WITH DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS
ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO OCCUR COULD BRIEFLY PRODUCE GUSTY
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. CURRENT FORECAST TEMPS LOOK CLOSE. 32/EE

&&

.AVIATION...
04.18Z TAF ISSUANCE...MOST VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 05.18Z. COULD SEE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR CIGS MOSTLY IN AND AROUND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING MOSTLY THIS AFTERNOON
OR EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON SHIFTING MOSTLY SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 8 KNOTS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT THROUGH SAT MORNING. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...MADE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO THE CURRENT MARINE FORECAST
MAINLY TO REFLECT THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATION A LITTLE BETTER
OCCURRING MOSTLY ALONG THE COAST AND OVER INLAND BAYS AND SOUNDS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. 32/EE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...STRETCHING A BIT INLAND OVER THE CAROLINAS/GA. AN
UPPER HIGH DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES...WITH A SURFACE
RIDGE DEVELOPING ALONG THE EAST COAST...FROM NEW ENGLAND SOUTH TO
OVER THE CAROLINAS. THIS CREATES A MORE ORGANIZED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...AND THE FA...BY SATURDAY MORN. WITH A
LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW OVER THE FA AND SURROUNDING AREAS...A SOUPY
AIRMASS REMAINS...WITH PRECIP H20 VALUES GENERALLY 1.8" AND ABOVE.
THE WILD CARD IS A BAND OF SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER PRECIP H20 VALUES
(GENERALLY AROUND 1.4-1.5") STRETCHING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN-MOST
MS/AL/FL COUNTIES OF THE FA.

WITH THE HIGH PRECIP H20 VALUES...HAVE WENT HIGHER THAN THE GFS WITH
RESPECT TO POPS TODAY...MORE INLINE WITH THE NAM...THOUGH NOT QUITE
AS WET AS THE ECMWF. FEEL THAT WITH THE DRY BAND ALONG THE
COAST...INITIAL FORMATION OF TSRA WITH THE GULF BREEZE MOVING INLAND
WILL BE A BIT LIMITED...BUT AS THE ACTIVITY WORKS INLAND...GREATER
COVERAGE WILL RESULT. WITH A DRIER AIRMASS BORDERING THE NORTHERN
REGIONS OF THE FA...FEEL ANY DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF HIGHWAY 84 WILL
SEE A HIGHER CHANCE OF DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS...WITH A DECENT DRY LAYER
CENTERED AROUND 500MB. TEMPS...HAVE WENT A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL
TODAY...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE STRETCHING NORTH OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS
THE REASON.

TONIGHT...HAVE WENT WITH A DIURNALLY DRIVEN...EVENING LAND TSRA
WASHING OUT...THEN RE-DEVELOPING OFFSHORE AS A LAND BREEZE SETS UP.
ANY AREAS THAT SEE DECENT RAIN TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WILL SEE FOG
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...SO HAVE PUT FOG INTO THE FORECAST. TEMPS
AROUND SEASONAL CONTINUE,

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
INTO TONIGHT...WITH HIGHEST ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. /16

LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY
ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES INTO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND. AN
UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO CUTOFF IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES AND SLOWLY RETROGRADE WESTWARD THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WORK WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. SHOWERS AND
THUDNERSTORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS...HOWEVER W/ THE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD...AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE
INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND PRECIP WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE RAIN CHANCES INCREASING LATE IN THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. /13

AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THOUGH
THE FORECAST. SOME LOCAL DROPS IN VISBYS TO MVFR LEVELS AFTER
MIDNIGHT POSSIBLE...BUT AM NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT./16

MARINE...LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW CURRENTLY OVER THE MARINE PORTIONS
OF THE FA WILL BECOME A MORE ORGANIZED NORTHEASTERLY TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE DEVELOPS ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS
GENERAL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE
COMING WEEK...THEN BECOME MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN MID WEEK AS A
SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. /16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      92  73  93  74  90 /  30  20  40  30  40
PENSACOLA   90  75  90  75  87 /  30  20  40  40  40
DESTIN      86  76  88  76  86 /  30  20  40  40  40
EVERGREEN   94  71  94  71  90 /  20  20  40  30  40
WAYNESBORO  95  71  94  72  92 /  20  20  30  20  30
CAMDEN      94  72  95  72  90 /  20  20  30  20  30
CRESTVIEW   93  71  92  72  88 /  40  20  40  40  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



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