Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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000
FXUS64 KMOB 062320 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
530 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.AVIATION... 00Z ISSUANCE. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST UNDER LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW.

/16

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)...COLD HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST STATES WILL BRING ANOTHER NIGHT OF WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 20S
ONCE AGAIN FOR AREAS ROUGHLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-65. SOME LOWER 20S
POSSIBLE ACROSS WAYNE AND CHOCTAW COUNTIES. UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S
EXPECTED FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH MID 30S AT THE BEACHES. WILL
ISSUE ANOTHER FREEZE WARNING FOR THE AREA TONIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE COASTAL PANHANDLE. CIRRUS WILL BE PASSING OVERHEAD THROUGH
THE NIGHT BUT IT IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO IMPACT TEMPERATURES
MUCH.

THE FORECAST LOW OF 28 AT MOBILE REGIONAL AIRPORT WOULD BREAK THE
RECORD OF 29 SET IN 1966. THE RECORD AT PENSACOLA OF 30 SET IN 1920
APPEARS SAFE FOR NOW (FORECAST LOW 36).

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST ON
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE WITH HIGHS GETTING
CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
34/JFB

(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...RIDGING ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE
UNDERNEATH IT WILL BRING US A LOT OF BLUE SKY THIS WEEKEND. SUNDAY
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TOWARD SOMETHING MORE TYPICAL OF
OUR CLIMATOLOGY...AROUND 70. OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY THOUGH WILL
STILL DROP SHARPLY INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S NEAR THE COAST AND
LOW TO MID 30S ELSEWHERE. LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY INLAND SURFACE WIND
COULD BE A BIT STRONGER NEAR THE COAST. INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST WITH FALLING
GEOPOTENTIAL 500 MB HEIGHTS AND WINDS ALOFT TURNING SOUTHWESTERLY.
TEMPERATURES PEAK JUST ABOVE 70 SUNDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECTING IT TO BE
NEARLY OVERCAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...WE EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN TO BE FALLING BY MONDAY MORNING AS A MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS
ISENTROPICALLY FORCED OVER A COOL LAYER OF AIR NEAR THE GROUND.
SMALL PERTURBATIONS PROPAGATING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL FORCE
OCCASIONAL EMBEDDED SHOWERS BUT NO THUNDER IS EXPECTED. CLOUDY...WET
CONDITIONS WE EXPECT TO REMAIN WITH US THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK. 77/BD

&&

.MARINE...OFFSHORE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON HAS REMAINED STRONGER THAN
EARLIER ANTICIPATED AND THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE MAINTAINS A
MODERATE TO STRONG FLOW THROUGH THE NIGHT. THEREFORE...WILL HAVE
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION WORDING FOR TONIGHT WITH WINDS
REMAINING 15-20 KT. WINDS FINALLY DIMINISH ON SATURDAY AS THE
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT
EAST. A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF BY
MONDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRIEFLY BECOME TIGHTER ON MONDAY
BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND THE DEVELOPING TROUGH. THIS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN A PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS ON MONDAY. 34/JFB

&&

.FIRE......RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 5 PM CST SATURDAY
BUT ONLY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. THIS IS DUE TO AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF LOW HUMIDITY. FREEZING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY DRY COOL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY AS A
HIGH PUSHES IN FROM OVER THE PIEDMONT REGION. DAYTIME RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL EXCEED RED FLAG CRITERIA SATURDAY FOR PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. DISPERSION SATURDAY WILL BE POOR TO FAIR...15 TO
20 UNITS IN THE WARNED AREA AND FAIR...20 TO 30...ELSEWHERE. CHANCES
OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND BECOMING LIKELY
MONDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEK. 77/BD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      28  64  38  67  50 /  00  00  05  20  70
PENSACOLA   36  64  40  69  50 /  00  00  05  20  50
DESTIN      41  63  51  65  50 /  00  00  05  20  40
EVERGREEN   27  65  35  71  50 /  00  00  05  20  50
WAYNESBORO  23  64  31  67  47 /  00  00  05  40  70
CAMDEN      25  64  34  71  49 /  00  00  05  20  50
CRESTVIEW   30  67  38  71  50 /  00  00  05  20  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM CST SATURDAY FOR
     ALZ051>064.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 5 PM CST SATURDAY FOR ALZ051-
     053>058-060.

FL...FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM CST SATURDAY FOR
     FLZ001-003-005.

MS...FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM CST SATURDAY FOR
     MSZ067-075-076-078-079.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$



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