Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 180459
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1159 PM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z issuance...VFR expected to prevail across the region through
the forecast period. There is still some potential for brief
patchy MVFR fog over interior areas overnight into early Friday
morning. Otherwise, expect a persistence forecast going into
Friday with development of scattered SHRA/TSRA by Friday
afternoon. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 649 PM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
00Z issuance...VFR conditions are expected to remain dominant
across the region through the next 24 hours. There is very little
coverage of convection over the region early this evening, with
only an isolated SHRA noted near KMOB at 17/2330z. Expect clearing
skies this evening with light southwest to west winds. A brief
period of patchy MVFR fog will be possible overnight into early
Friday morning over interior portions of the area. Similar
conditions continue into Friday, except for perhaps a little
better coverage of SHRA/TSRA developing Friday afternoon. /21

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 349 PM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Friday/...Upper ridging building over
the area today has resulted in a much lower coverage of showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon. Any lingering isolated showers and
storms will quickly fade this evening. Overnight lows will continue
to be muggy with temps in the mid 70s inland to near 80 along the
coast. The upper ridge breaks down on Friday as an upper trough
moves east and sends a weak front toward the area. The combination
of the weakening upper ridge, approaching boundary and increased
deep layer moisture will lead to an increased chance of showers and
thunderstorms through the day on Friday. Locally heavy rainfall and
frequent lightning will be the main threats. The stronger storms may
produce gusty winds. Outside of the showers and storms, hot and
muggy continue with highs in the low 90s. Heat index values will
again climb into the 100-106 range. /13

SHORT TERM /Friday night Through Sunday night/...Upper level ridging
across the northern Gulf Coast will continue to slide west and
depart the area early in the short term. Meanwhile, an upper level
trough swings across the eastern half of the CONUS and an
inverted trough meanders into the central Gulf from the east over
the weekend. This pattern will continue to allow the increasing
low level moisture to settle in across the southern half of the
area. Precipitable water values will hover around 2 inches across
the southern portion of the area with slightly lower values across
the interior counties.

In addition to the moisture, there will be modest instability for
storms to tap into both Saturday and Sunday afternoons. Any
strong storms that develop in this environment will be capable of
producing frequent lightning, gusty winds, and torrential
downpours. The best coverage of showers and storms will remain
across the southern half of the area through the weekend,
especially Saturday afternoon. Likely POPs were maintained across
the coastal counties on Saturday afternoon with chance POPs across
inland locations.

Toasty afternoon temperatures anticipated this weekend with highs
in the mid to low 90s inland and upper 80s to near 90 along the
immediate coastline. Heat indices of 102-106 can be expected both
Saturday and Sunday afternoons. Overnight temperatures will range
from the upper 70s along the coast to the mid 70s further inland.
07/MB

LONG TERM /Monday Through Thursday/...The inverted trough over
the Gulf continues to drift west and dampen out as upper level
ridging builds back into the region early in the long term. This
pattern will allow the return of more diurnal storm coverage,
although chance POPs are maintained each afternoon as precipitable
water values remain around 2 inches. Any strong storms that
develop next week will be capable of producing frequent lightning,
gusty winds, and torrential downpours.

The temperature forecast in the long term continues to sound like
a broken record each day - hot and muggy. High temperatures will
top out in mid to low 90s inland with upper 80s to near 90 along
the immediate coastline each afternoon. The resulting heat index
will be in the 102-105 degree range through the foreseeable
future. Overnight temperatures will range from the upper 70s along
the coast to the mid 70s further inland. 07/MB

MARINE...A ridge of high pressure over the northern Gulf will
weaken as a weak front approaches this weekend. This will maintain
the generally light west to southwest wind flow through Saturday.
High pressure rebuilds again next week with winds becoming east to
southeast. Little change in seas is expected through the period.
Winds and seas will be locally higher near scattered showers and
thunderstorms. /13

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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