Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 282355
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
455 PM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...NORAML TO SLIGHTLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND DUE
TO HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PDT THURSDAY...AFTER FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
CLOUDINESS ACROSS MOST OF THE URBAN AREAS TODAY, CLOUDS HAVE
CLEARED AND MOST SPOTS ARE SEEING SUNNY SKIES. ONLY EXCEPTION LOOKS
LIKE A FEW PATCHES OF CLOUDS STILL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE.
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RUNNING A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY
ALTHOUGH HIGHS SHOULD STILL UP NEAR NORMAL VALUES -- 60S TO MID
70S AT THE COAST WITH MID 70S TO UPPER 80S INLAND.

SATELLITE NICELY SHOWS TROPICAL STORM MARIE CHURNING AROUND 900
MILES TO THE SOUTHWEST OF SAN FRANCISCO CONTINUING TO TRACK TO THE
NW. NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR IT TO CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AND BECOME
POST-TROPICAL BY TONIGHT. CLOSER TO HOME, THE BIG QUESTION OF THE
PAST WEEK HAS BEEN IF ANY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH MARIE WOULD
BECOME ENTRAINED IN THE FLOW AND MOVE INTO OUR CWA AS A LONGWAVE
TROF SWEEPS INTO THE PACNW. MODELS HAVE BEEN IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT OVER THE PAST THREE DAYS THAT ANY RAINFALL WOULD REMAIN
WELL OUT OF OUR AREA DUE TO A RIDGE BLOCKING ANY ADVANCE.

ALTHOUGH RAIN OR SHOWERS WILL NOT MAKE IT TO THE COAST, HIGH
CLOUDS ALONG WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY READINGS CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. HIGHS ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE CLOSE TO WHAT WE SEE
TODAY. LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FOR THE
NORTH AND EAST BAY MOUNTAINS BOTH DAYS DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE
LONGWAVE TROF. 925 MB SPEEDS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE 15-25 KT SO
WE SHOULD BE WELL UNDER AND ADVISORY LEVELS.

QUIET WEATHER WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOKS LIKELY ALL OF
THE WAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK AS THE LONGWAVE TROF DEPARTS WELL TO THE EAST WHILE A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE STAYS IN CONTROL OUT OVER THE PACIFIC. A DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES AND OVER
OUR AREA. AN ADDITIONAL LONGWAVE TROF WILL MOVE DOWN FROM CANADA
AND BRING COOLER CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY FOR INLAND LOCATIONS BY
NEXT WEDNESDAY. IF THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF VERIFIES, THAT TROF WILL
STAY NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK WHICH
WILL HELP TO KEEP COOLER THAN NORMAL READINGS FOR INLAND SPOTS.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:55 PM PDT THURSDAY...LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE
COAST ARE CURRENTLY PUSHING BACK INLAND THROUGH COASTAL GAPS AND
BAYS. CIGS EXPECTED TO MAKE AN EARLY RETURN OVER MONTEREY BAY
AREA TERMINALS. BAY AREA TERMINALS WILL SEE A RETURN OF CIGS LATE
TONIGHT. MODERATE SEABREEZE TO AROUND 15 TO 20 KT WILL EASE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
LATE THIS EVENING. IFR CIGS EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.
AN AFTERNOON SEABREEZE AROUND 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL
EASE AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. IFR CIGS AFFECTING THE APPROACH AFTER 10Z FRIDAY MORNING.
THE APPROACH WILL SCATTER OUT AROUND 18Z FRIDAY.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER
00Z THIS AFTERNOON. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KT WILL EASE
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:30 PM PDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST ON FRIDAY RESULTING IN
INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SOUTHERLY SWELL FROM FORMER HURRICANE MARIE WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM FROM 6 AM
             SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: CW

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