Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 311018
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
318 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES NEAR
THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR NORMAL...WHILE INLAND AREAS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:15 AM PDT MONDAY...A STRONG NORTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW THIS MORNING HAS HELPED TO KEEP VIRTUALLY OUR ENTIRE
AREA CLOUD FREE SO FAR. LAST FEW FRAMES SHOW ONE PATCH OF CLOUDS
OFF THE SAN MATEO COAST HEADING TO THE SOUTH. THIS AREA WILL
LIKELY EXPEND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND IMPACT AT LEAST SOUTHERN
MONTEREY BAY COASTLINE. OUTSIDE OF THAT...SHOULD BE A MOSTLY
SUNNY START TO THE DAY. TEMPS ARE RUNNING CLOSE TO WHERE WE WERE
YESTERDAY AND HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO THE VALUES WE HIT
ON SUNDAY. LOOK FOR UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S AT THE COAST WITH UPPER
70S TO NEAR 90 FOR INLAND SPOTS. ONE DIFFERENCE FROM YESTERDAY IS
WINDS FOR THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY LESS ALTHOUGH WE WILL
STILL SEE LOCAL GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN HAS A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
CONUS WHILE A RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN THIRD. THIS
WILL PRODUCE TEMPS AT OR A BIT COOLER THAN NORMAL INLAND WHILE
COASTAL SPOTS WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO OFFSHORE
FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. THE STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN WELL TO
OUR NORTH.

FURTHER OUT...NO SIGN OF RAIN THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:42 PM PDT SUNDAY...THE MESOSCALE MODEL
OUTPUT IS STILL HAVING TROUBLE RESOLVING THE PRESENT STRENGTH OF
THE NORTHERLY SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTH BAY AS WELL
AS FROM ACV-SFO. BOTH GRADIENTS HAVE CLIMBED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE DRY TROUGH EARLIER. THE
UKI-STS GRADIENT IS HOLDING STRONG AT 2.6 MB AND THE ACV-SFO IS
MODERATE AT 4.4 MB. BOTH ARE FORECAST TO HOLD CLOSE TO WHERE THEY
ARE OVERNIGHT. AN INDICATION OF NORTHERLY WIND POTENTIAL...DRYING
DOWNSLOPING NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT DUE TO THESE
GRADIENTS THEREBY GREATLY REDUCING THE CHANCES OF STRATUS AND/OR
FOG DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR NORTH BAY. SATELLITE
AND AREA OBSERVATIONS SHOW CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AREA-WIDE.
A FEW PATCHES OF STRATUS OR FOG ARE STILL POSSIBLE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST OVERNIGHT. VFR IS VERY LIKELY MONDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. WESTERLY WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED THIS EVENING
BUT STILL COULD PICK UP AT TIMES OVERNIGHT. GENERAL THOUGHT IS THAT
THE WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS. HOWEVER BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
WESTERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY PICK BACK UP AGAIN WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KNOTS
21Z-04Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 03:05 AM PDT MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST EXTENDS INTO THE OREGON COAST. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS
WILL DECREASE LATE TUESDAY AS THE HIGH WEAKENS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: CANEPA


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