Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 240130 AAA
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
830 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

.UPDATE...
Adjusted rain chances tonight, to increase them before midnight
in southern Oklahoma and north Texas as well as decrease them in
northern Oklahoma. Lowered overnight lows in central Oklahoma and
across the southeast half of Oklahoma. Made other minor
adjustments to other elements including sky cover.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorms will continue this evening, mainly across southern
Oklahoma and western north Texas, slowly diminishing over the next
several hours.

Ongoing storms as of 820 pm from near Lawton to Frederick to
Wichita Falls continue to remain fairly unorganized due to weak
shear (0-6 km shear generally 15-20 kt), producing heavy rainfall
and occasional wind gusts 40-60 mph. These storms will continue
to move south into an unstable airmass with MUCAPE 1500-3000 J/kg.
Overall, these storms should generally weaken with the loss of
daytime heating over the next several hours, though cannot rule
out a few reports of damaging winds and/or localized flooding.
Other storms in southeastern Oklahoma will be south of the Red
River by 10 pm.

Storm/rain chances remain very low tonight near and north of I-40
where capping is stronger.

Rain/storms have cooled the air considerably in parts of Oklahoma.
Thus, lowered overnight lows a few degrees.

Some fog formation is possible where rain occurred this
afternoon/early evening (mainly near an axis from near Anadarko to
Seminole south to Ada and Atoka. For now, did not mention due to
low confidence of occurrence as abundant mid/high level cloud
cover may limit radiational cooling.

Products will be updated shortly.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 621 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017/

..Aviation Discussion...

AVIATION...

For the 00z TAFs:

VFR conditions and light east-southeast winds are likely to
prevail through the TAF period. Thunderstorms at or in the
vicinity of CSM, LAW, and HBR may result in strong wind gusts and
brief reductions in visibility from heavy rain. Thunderstorms
should diminish by late evening.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 236 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Given latest observation trends, we will leave the Heat
Advisory/Excessive Heat Warning going through early evening.

Well detailed meso-discussion issued with previous updated AFD
still holding to our thinking. For the OKC metro - storm chances
will be tied to the area of elevated showers moving southeast
from Enid. Added convergence associated with this activity, which
is tied to a weakening MCV from overnight convection, may allow
scattered showers and storms to develop near/over the OKC metro
and progress south and east into the early evening hours. Brief
heavy rain and strong wind gusts will be the main concerns along
with cloud to ground lightning. Two other areas of concentrated
convection we will look for will be over western north Texas into
southwest Oklahoma associated with deformation east of two MCVs
over the southern panhandle and southwest TX high plains. The
other area is south central and southeast Oklahoma where better
moisture profiles and terrain could yield more in the way of
widespread convective development late this afternoon through this
evening. DCAPE values and weak shear will be supportive of
localized damaging wind gusts with the deeper/more persistent
cores.

Heights quickly build Monday and Tuesday which will allow
temperatures to rise back well above average. Moisture will not be
going anywhere as well, so heat indices will once again yield
likelihood for heat advisory/excessive heat warnings across the
area by mid-week. Models still indicating another respectable
trough to progress around upper ridge and push another weak front
into the region Thursday-Friday. Along with taking the edge off
the heat, the front will also yield scattered thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  71  96  74  97 /  10  20  20  10
Hobart OK         71  97  75  99 /  90  30  20  10
Wichita Falls TX  72  97  74  99 /  70  30  20  10
Gage OK           68  96  72  98 /  10  20  20  10
Ponca City OK     72  96  74  98 /  10  10  10  10
Durant OK         72  94  73  97 /  90  30  20  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

17/17


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