Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
FXUS64 KOUN 242337 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
637 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016
.AVIATION...25/00z TAF Issuance...
VFR conditions will prevail through this evening, high clouds will
increase in coverage after midnight through the morning from west
to east across the region. Expect low level clouds, potentially
MVFR, to develop across portions of western Oklahoma early Tuesday
morning. Low confidence in possible fog. Some indications are for
a period of MVFR to potentially IFR fog in western Oklahoma.
However, unlike last night/this morning, greater cloud cover
across the region should limit the possibility. However, still
hedged a bit with TEMPOs at KCSM and KHBR for light fog and
reassess at the 06z set.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 324 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016/
A shortwave trough, embedded within northwesterly flow aloft, is
expected to increase the chance of showers/storms tomorrow evening
into early Wednesday. The highest chance of showers/storms will
begin across northwest Oklahoma and will shift eastward--near the
Kansas/Oklahoma border---through Wednesday morning. Progged
instability (MLCAPE ~1500 J/kg) and shear (effective bulk shear
~25 knots) is on the marginal end, but is sufficient for strong
storms tomorrow the evening.
Beyond Wednesday, the forecast is dry for the foreseeable future.
Rising mid-level heights and warming low-level thermal fields
indicate unseasonably warm weather will continue with temperatures
10-15F above average by Friday. The ECMWF and GFS both have 850 mb
temperatures of 16-18C across central Oklahoma (>90th percentile)
and near 22C across northwest Oklahoma. Therefore, opted to
increase temperatures beyond the blended guidance for Friday.
On Saturday, a weak frontal boundary may approach northern
Oklahoma; however, the 12Z GFS and ECMWF suggest the southern
2/3rds of Oklahoma and all of western north Texas will remain
within a low-level thermal ridge (and unseasonably warm) ahead of
the boundary. Increased temperatures several degrees, especially
along and south of I-40, to account for this trend. Temperatures
may have to be increased further if the near record 850 mb
temperatures progged by the ECMWF continue in subsequent runs.
For Sunday and Monday, slightly cooler temperatures are forecast
as the low-level thermal ridge relaxes; however, temperatures will
remain around 10F above average for late October.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 61 78 61 81 / 0 10 30 30
Hobart OK 63 78 61 83 / 0 10 10 10
Wichita Falls TX 63 80 62 84 / 0 10 10 0
Gage OK 60 80 55 83 / 0 10 20 0
Ponca City OK 61 80 62 80 / 0 10 50 30
Durant OK 62 81 61 82 / 0 10 10 10