Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pago Pago

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FXZS60 NSTU 212341
AFDPPG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR AMERICAN SAMOA AND INDEPENDENT SAMOA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
1241 PM SST WED JUN 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...
.TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS WILL IMPACT THE SAMOAN ISLANDS. A LARGE SCALE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL SSE WILL USHER MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE SSW WILL DRIVE
CLOSER TO SAVAII AND UPOLU FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SITUATION WILL CROP
LOCAL WIND SPEEDS TO NEAR 10 TO 15 KT FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THE RAIN
SHOWER COVERAGE WILL LET UP AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. THUS...
ANTICIPATE SEASONAL TRADEWIND WEATHER CONDITIONS TO PERSIST OVER
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

.LONG TERM...
.SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS JUST SOUTH OF THE
MAIN SAMOAN ISLES WILL YIELD TO MOSTLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY. PREVIOUS GFS MODELS SUGGEST THE
EARLY ARRIVAL OF TRADEWINDS MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THE LATEST GFS MODEL
SOLUTIONS NOW DELAYS TRADEWIND CONDITIONS UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR
NOW...WILL HOLD OFF ON UPDATING THE PREV FCST PACKAGE...BUT WILL
MONITOR THIS SITUATION FOR ANOTHER DAY BEFORE MAKING UPDATES TO REFLECT
THE EXPECTED SITUATION. THUS...ANTICIPATE DRIER CONDITIONS OVER
THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...LARGE TRADEWIND GENERATED SEAS AND SWELLS COMBINED WITH
KING TIDES THIS COMING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS WILL MAINTAIN
HAZARDOUS SEAS AND SURFS. LARGE SEAS UP TO 12 FT WILL SUBSIDE TO
NEAR 7 TO 9 FT THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO NEAR 5
TO 7 FT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...KING TIDES
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH UP TO 3.5 FT FOR TUTUILA...AND UP TO 5 FT FOR
TA`U, MANU`A AROUND 6 AM TO 7:30 AM LOCAL TIME FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. LOCAL MARINERS AND COMMUNITY ARE STRONGLY CAUTIONED TO
MONITOR LOCAL SURROUNDING EARLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HENCE...ISSUANCE
OF ADVISORIES FOR SMALL CRAFTS AND HIGH SURFS WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.A HIGH SURF ADVISORY.
.A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

&&

$$

CB






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