Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 221715
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1015 AM MST Mon Jan 22 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 356 AM MST Mon Jan 22 2018

Currently...

Storm which brought widespread generally light snow to the region
has moved into Kansas. Some wrap-around snow was still noted over
far northeast CO at 3 am, but most of this activity was generally
along and north of I-70. Breezy conditions were still be noted over
far southeast CO with northwest winds 10-20 mph with locally higher
gusts.

Temps over the area were generally in the 20s over the plains, with
the warmest temps over the far eastern plains. Some teens were noted
along the plains/mtns interface. Valleys were in the teens with
temps in the negative single digits over the mountains.

Today...

Storm will continue to move east away from the region. Skies will be
mostly sunny today and drier air will move into the region.
Northwest winds will prevail across the region, with teh strongest
winds noted over the far eastern plains. With snow noted over a good
part of the area, temps will likely remain on the cool side today
with mainly 40s over the plains. Northern El Paso county will likely
remain in the 30s given the heavier snow amounts over this location.
Valleys will generally be in the 30s and mountains will be in the
teens and 20s. Given the breezy conditions and cool temps, it will
feel much cooler than the ambient temperature readings.

Tonight...

A weak disturbance will move southeast in the northwest flow aloft.
This may bring a few light snow showers to the central mountains
tonight, but no sniffy accum snows are anticipated. Winds across
the highest terrain will keep up tonight, but winds will be light
across the remainder of the forecast area. It will be cold tonight
with teens on the plains. Positive and negative single digits
will prevail across the mtns and valleys. Alamosa should be the
coldest location across the region tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 356 AM MST Mon Jan 22 2018

Tuesday through Thursday...A weak upper disturbance will cross the
Rockies early Tue, pushing a dry cold front south across the eastern
half of Colorado and keeping temps a bit cool through the day.
Otherwise, northwest flow aloft will transition to westerly on Wed,
then southwest on Thu as an upper ridge of high pressure moves
across the Four Corners region. This will allow for dry and warming
conditions both Wed and Thu. Expect highs in the upper 30s to mid
40s for Tue, 40s for the high valleys and 50s for the plains on Wed,
then mid 40s to lower 50s for the high valleys and upper 50s to mid
60s for the plains on Thu.

Friday through Sunday...As has been the case so far this season,
another quick-moving upper disturbance will cross the Rockies late
Thu night, bringing the chance of snow to the higher terrain for Fri
into early sat morning. The heaviest hit areas will be the
Continental divide and especially the central mts, though all
indications point to another glancing blow will just minimal snow
amounts for the peaks. GFS and EC models show this next feature to
be a bit stronger, so stay tuned over the next few days as the
solution becomes more clear. Look for max temps each day in the 40s
to near 50F for most areas. Moore

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 956 AM MST Mon Jan 22 2018

As the low pressure system continues to propagate to the
northeast, a ridge of high pressure will build over the
intermountain west.

KALS:
Since there was fresh precipitation over the forecast point
yesterday, there may be fog development overnight. I have excluded
fog from the TAF, since the daytime melting will be limited today,
but be aware that there is the potential. Expect VFR conditions for
the forecast period.

KPUB and KCOS:
Gusty northerly winds will dissipate during the afternoon hours.
VFR conditions expected throughout the forecast period.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...SKELLY



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