Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 182149
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
348 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Friday)

A weak cold front was moving south across the Big Country counties
this afternoon and will continue south across the rest of the area
through early evening. Meanwhile, a shortwave trough/upper level
disturbance was moving across the Desert Southwest and will track
east across the area late tonight and early Friday. Isentropic
ascent north of the front will increase this evening, with synoptic
scale lift increasing overnight as the aforementioned shortwave
approaches. This will lead to thickening and lowering cloud cover
this evening, with a chance for rainfall across the area overnight
into Friday.

The best chance for measurable precipitation will be across
southeast counties, where rainfall amounts between 1/4 and 1/2 inch
will be possible. Elsewhere, rainfall amounts should be light,
generally between 1/10 and 1/4 inch. Mid level lapse rates still
look steep enough for some isolated thunder across southern sections
after midnight and this was retained in the forecast. Lows tonight
will be in the 40s, with light northeast winds.

The upper level trough axis will move across the area Friday
afternoon, with precipitation ending from west to east. It will
be mostly cloudy and considerably cooler, with highs ranging from
the upper 40s north, to the lower and middle 50s elsewhere.

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through Christmas Day)

Looks like a dry forecast and mainly above normal temperatures this
weekend through Christmas Day. Upper level west-northwest flow will
dominate with a only dry cool front moving through the area Monday
night. Highs will be in the upper 50s and 60s, with possibly a few
lower 70s Monday. Lows will be in the 30s and 40s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  42  49  35  55  38 /  30  30   5   5   5
San Angelo  45  54  35  59  38 /  40  30   5   5   5
Junction  48  56  37  60  39 /  70  50   0   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

24/21






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