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000
FXUS64 KSJT 251140
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
639 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

&&

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Look for VFR conditions to continue for the next 24 hours. Surface
winds will be mainly from the southeast at 5 to 10 knots.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

An upper ridge will continue to dominate for the next 24 hours, as
the forecast remains dry. Temperature numbers close to MOS look
reasonable, with the warmest highs along and north of our Interstate
20 corridor. For tonight, lows in the lower to mid 70s look good.

LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)

West Central Texas will continue under the domination of a strong
upper high pressure ridge through the weekend and into the beginning
of next week with hot and dry conditions persisting. Afternoon highs
over the forecast area will be in the upper 90s to around 100 with
morning lows in the low to mid 70s.

Models continue to advertise a change in our weather pattern
beginning late Monday by dropping a potent upper low pressure system
through the Great Lakes region. Given the strength of this
developing upper trough, the stagnant upper ridge over our area will
be pushed westward toward the Four Corners area. The new location of
the upper ridge will place the forecast area in a northwest flow
aloft and permit periodic upper level disturbances associated with
the developing upper trough to track across the area. At this time,
the main storm track looks to be along the Red River area which
would favor our northern CWA counties for the bast chance of
rainfall. However, any convective activity over this area will aid
in the production of outflow boundaries that will have a tendency to
push additional thunderstorm activity further south toward and
possible south of the Interstate 20 corridor. At this time, will
continue the slight chance of showers and thunderstorms over the
northern half of the forecast area await further model
enhancements.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  99  76  99  75  99 /   5   5   0   5   0
San Angelo  99  74  99  73  99 /   5   5   0   5   0
Junction  98  73  99  75  98 /   5   5   5   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$