Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 230411
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1110 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will continue at all terminals through the next 24
hours. Southeasterly winds will remain generally light through the
period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014/

.UPDATE...
Lowered POPs across western sections overnight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A few light rain showers that developed across Nolan county
earlier this evening have pretty much dissipated, while a lone
shower continues to affect southern Mason county. Could see a
few showers or an isolated thunderstorm develop across far
south/southwest counties overnight per latest NAM and HRRR,
so kept an isolated mention across this area. Otherwise, dry
conditions will prevail overnight with lows in the 60s.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will continue at all terminals through the next 24
hours. Southeasterly winds will remain generally light through the
period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tomorrow)

A weak cold front was located along the I-20 corridor. A few showers
have developed just north of the front due to weak convergence and
pooling dewpoints in the the 60s. Otherwise a scattered cu field
covered much of West Central Texas this afternoon. For tonight, weak
instability and abundant tropical moisture will remain across the
area. However, not much ascent to work with. Will leave the slight
chance POPS going across the western 1/3 of the area. For Tuesday,
not much change in the forecast from today. Going for a slight
chance of thunderstorms west of a Sweetwater to San Angelo to
Junction line. However, coverage will remain isolated due to weak
instability and not much vertical motion. Highs will be in the
80s.

LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow Night through Monday)

A relative weakness in the upper level ridge is forecast to be over
the area on Tuesday, with at least isolated showers and
thunderstorms developing during the late afternoon hours, with some
of this convection continuing into the early evening hours. The best
moisture will be across our western counties, and this is where PoPs
were included. Most convection will dissipate by mid evening, with
the loss of daytime heating. More of the same is forecast on
Wednesday, with at least isolated showers and thunderstorms
developing mainly west of a Sweetwater, to Mertzon, to Ozona line.

For the middle to latter part of the work week, an upper level
ridge across the Desert Southwest, will become elongated from
southwest to northeast, and stretch toward the Northern Plains.
Models are indicating an upper level low developing somewhere across
the Southern Plains during this same time frame. Uncertainty remains
in the exact location and strength of this feature. Given the
uncertainty, only very minor changes were made beyond Wednesday.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms were continue across mainly the
Interstate 10 corridor on Friday. Depending on the exact placement
and strength of the upper level low, at least isolated, mainly
diurnal, convection cannot be ruled out during the middle to latter
part of the week. For now, a dry forecast was continued. Uncertainty
remains in the handling of the next large upper level trough that is
forecast to approach the Plains early next week, and no changes to
the forecast were made at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  62  85  63  85  61 /  10   5  10  10  10
San Angelo  64  85  63  85  60 /  10  20  20  10  10
Junction  64  87  61  86  58 /  10  10  10  10   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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