Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 310936

435 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

(Today and Tonight)

Quiet weather is expected in the short term behind the cold front
that moved through last night. Much drier weather is moving into the
area behind the cold front today. Dewpoint values are already in the
30s from Interstate 20 corridor northward, and this drier air will
continue to filter into the area behind the front today. So, with
highs ranging from the 60s north to the mid 70s south, highs will be
10 to 20 degrees cooler than Thursday.

The main concern for the short term will be how cool temperatures
will get tonight. Overnight, surface winds will diminish to less
than 10 knots. Skies will be mainly clear, and a much cooler/drier
air mass will be in place as well. All these factors point to a
situation where temperatures will be able to drop into the 30s
across much of the area, and possibly into the mid 30s in valley
areas. Have lowered temperatures a few degrees as a result. With
this setup, frost will be a possibility for eastern valley
locations, and areas mainly north of Interstate 20. Although we will
hold off on issuing an advisory at this point, one may be issued
later today.

(Saturday and Sunday)

Looks like a nice weekend with seasonable temperatures. Low level
southerly flow will pick up on the back side of surface high to our
east and lee trough to the west.

(Monday through next Friday)

There is a good chance of rain early next week with beneficial
rainfall amounts possible. The combination of an upper level trough
moving across the Central and Southern Plains, and a cold front will
bring showers and thunderstorms to West Central Texas Monday and
Tuesday. Other favorable factors going for potential heavy rainfall
include a slow moving frontal system, elevated convection behind the
front and right rear entrance region of 250 MB jet. Also, low level
southerly flow off the Gulf of Mexico along will help increase low
level moisture and some mid and upper moisture connection from
Tropical Storm Vance. The PW values will increase to 1.5 to 1.75
inches. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible, especially
across southern and eastern parts of the area. The highest rain
chances(likely POPS) are Monday night and Tuesday. Looks like mainly
a dry forecast for Wednesday through Friday, even through the medium
range models indicate an upper level low over the area with the
possibility of lingering showers.


Abilene  66  37  64  47  71 /   0   0   0   0  10
San Angelo  71  38  68  49  72 /   0   0   0   0  10
Junction  73  37  67  47  70 /   5   0   0   0  10




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