Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
FXUS64 KSJT 061138
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
638 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
VFR conditions with light winds will predominate at all terminals through
the next 24 hours.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 457 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015/
(Today and Tonight)
Upper ridge will build over the forecast area through tonight with
mostly clear skies, light winds and warmer temperatures. Today highs
will run 5 to 10 degrees warmer than Monday with afternoon highs in
the mid to upper 80s. Morning lows on Tuesday will also be warmer
with lows mostly in the lower 60s.
(Wednesday through Monday)
By Wednesday morning, a closed upper low will be situated over
southern Arizona. Models track this system slowly southeast into
northern Mexico by Thursday, then drift it back to the southwest
across the Baja Peninsula by Saturday. The proximity of this
system has the potential to bring beneficial rainfall to the area,
mainly Thursday through Saturday but there are now some
significant model differences regarding precipitation amounts. The
latest ECMWF still develops generous rainfall across the area,
while the 00Z GFS has come in much drier, with only the southwest
portions of the CWA seeing any appreciable rainfall amounts. Did
not make any significant changes to POPs and QFF amounts this
forecast cycle and will maintain a wet scenario for late week
time frame for now.
Rainfall amounts between 1/2 inch and 2.5 inches are possible
Thursday through Saturday, with the highest totals generally
southwest of a Sweetwater to San Angelo to Junction line. Further
adjustments to rainfall amounts are likely the next couple of days
as models continue to get a better handle on the upper system.
Lingering showers still possible on Saturday, mainly across
southwest sections, then we dry out for the rest of the weekend
into Columbus Day. Temperatures will be much cooler Thursday
through Saturday with abundant cloud cover and precipitation
around, with highs mainly in the 70s. We`ll see a return to warmer
temperatures next Sunday and Monday with highs in the 80s. Expect
overnight lows in the 60s through the extended period.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 85 60 87 64 / 0 0 10 20
San Angelo 88 61 88 64 / 0 0 10 30
Junction 90 62 88 65 / 0 0 10 20