Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 210450
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1050 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2018

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

MVFR stratus was spreading northward from the Hill Country and
I-10 corridor at 445Z. Stratus will lower to IFR and will move
into the Concho Valley around 9Z and along the I-20 corridor by
12Z. Strong southwest to west winds will produce cross wind
problems at KABI and KSJT Sunday afternoon with wind gusts from 30
to 35 KTs. Winds will subside early evening.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 915 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2018/

UPDATE...
Have made some minor adjustments to cloud cover for the overnight
period to account for low clouds developing and moving north a
bit faster than previously thought. Rest of the forecast is on
track and needed no adjustments. 20

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 524 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2018/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

IFR stratus will advect north to the I-10 corridor, including
KSOA and KJCT this evening, spreading to I-20 and KABI by 12Z.
Stratus should break up by mid morning at KABI and KSJT as gusty
southwest winds behind to develop. KABI and KSJT will see cross
wind problems, particularly on south to north runways, through the
afternoon, as the wind gusts between 30 KTS to 36 KTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 254 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2018/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Sunday)

Critical Fire Weather Conditions and Windy Sunday...

A strong upper level trough/low will pivot northeast from the
southern Rockies Sunday into the central Plains by Monday morning.
This upper level system will drive a dryline/cold front east
across West Central Texas Sunday afternoon. In the wake of its
passage, expect strong west winds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts to 45
mph possible due to good downward vertical mixing, north of an
Ozona to Brownwood line. Going with a Wind Advisory across from 11
AM to 7 PM across this area of West Central Texas. it will be
breezy elsewhere, with gusts to 35 mph possible. Also, critical
fire weather conditions are expected north of an Ozona to
Brownwood line and elevated fire weather conditions elsewhere
Sunday afternoon. See fire weather discussion below.

LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Saturday)

Looks like mainly quiet weather and mild temperatures through
this week. Aloft, quasi-zonal flow will keep West Central Texas
mainly dry. A few showers are possible Friday night across the
southeast. Highs will be mainly 60 to 65, with lows in the upper
20s and 30s.

FIRE WEATHER...

The headline for fire weather concerns highlights critical fire
weather conditions developing Sunday, as a cold front moves into
West Central Texas, from the west. We have canceled the Fire
Weather Watch and issued a Red Flag Warning. The Red Flag Warning
will begin at 11 AM Sunday morning and continue until 7 PM Sunday
evening. It`s during that time frame when winds will be highest
and relative humidity will be lowest. Winds at 20 feet above
ground level, will be from the west, at 20 to 25 mph, with
possible gusts in the 35 to 40 mph range. For those counties in
the warning, critical fire weather conditions are likely. For
those counties not in the warning, fire weather concerns will be
near critical, as 20 foot winds, from the west, should remain
below 20 mph.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  49  65  36  58 /   0   5   0   0
San Angelo  49  66  36  60 /   0   5   0   0
Junction  51  70  35  60 /   5  10   0   0
Brownwood  50  70  35  59 /   5  10   5   0
Sweetwater  49  64  35  57 /   0   5   0   0
Ozona       46  64  34  58 /   5   5   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 7 PM CST Sunday for Brown-
Callahan-Coke-Coleman-Concho-Crockett-Fisher-Haskell-Irion-Jones-
Nolan-Runnels-Schleicher-Shackelford-Sterling-Taylor-
Throckmorton-Tom Green.

Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CST Sunday for Brown-Callahan-
Coke-Coleman-Concho-Crockett-Fisher-Haskell-Irion-Jones-Nolan-
Runnels-Schleicher-Shackelford-Sterling-Taylor-Throckmorton-Tom
Green.

&&

$$

99/99/04



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