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000
FXUS64 KSJT 130400
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1115 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will continue at all terminals through then next 24
hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014/

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will continue at all terminals through then next 24
hours. Southerly winds will gust to near 20 knots through the early
evening hours before tapering off.

15

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014/

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tomorrow)

Skies were sunny across West Central Texas this afternoon with gusty
south winds. Also, low level mixing has caused dewpoints to crash
down into the 40s across much of the area. Temperatures were mainly
in the 90s.

For tonight, low level moisture will work back into the area by late
this evening, resulting in warm and humid conditions. Some low
clouds may develop along the I-10 corridor but should be localized.
Lows will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s. For Sunday, a repeat of
today with mostly sunny skies and hot temperatures. Highs will be in
the 90s, with the century mark possible across the northern Big
Country.

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Saturday)

A ridge of high pressure will be centered over the Inter-mountain
West, with an unusually strong trough for this time of year
developing over the Great Lakes. As this trough continues to deepen,
the eastern flank of the ridge will dampen-out some, allowing a
couple of cold fronts to drop south across West Central Texas. The
first cold front is still forecast to be a little north of Haskell
and Throckmorton counties Monday evening, making slow progress
during the day Tuesday, as it becomes stationary later that evening.
Where the front stalls is still up for debate in the models, with
the ECMWF furthest south (stalling the front near Interstate 10),
and the GFS furthest north (stalling the front near Interstate 20).
Showers and thunderstorms will develop along the front, with models
showing the northern third of the forecast area being most in line
to receive rainfall. The close proximity of the front, and resultant
increased cloud cover, will help keep afternoon highs a little
cooler compared to locations further south.

Upper-level disturbances riding the top of the ridge will drop
southeast towards Oklahoma mid to late week, with the Great Lakes
low sending a secondary, and stronger cold front south towards the
area. With low-level upslope flow residing under a northwest flow
aloft, episodic MCS development is possible somewhere near the Texas
Panhandle mid to late week, as they track to the east-southeast.
Rain-cooled air from these complexes will aid in frontal movement,
with the second cold front entering our northern counties by
Wednesday evening. Strong convergence is anticipated along this
front, with confidence growing for a more widespread coverage of
showers and thunderstorms possible, especially Wednesday evening and
Thursday. PWATs are still progged above 1.5 inches. As a result,
locally heavy rainfall remains possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  73  96  72  96  71 /   0   0   5  10  20
San Angelo  72  97  69  98  70 /   0   5   0  10  10
Junction  71  94  69  96  71 /   0   5   0  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

21/DOLL