Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 241014
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
414 AM CST Tue Jan 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

...A red flag warning for fire weather has been issued for the Big
Country and portions of the Concho Valley this afternoon...

A strong surface low will move out of southeast Colorado east into
Kansas today. This will result is breezy southwest winds, especially
across the Big County and Northern Concho Valley this afternoon.
Southwest downslope winds will bring temperatures well above normal
into the mid and upper 70s...and combined with the winds...bring
critical fire danger in the afternoon to areas along and north of a
Mertzon...San Angelo...Ballinger...Baird line. The All Blends model
has underdone the temperatures and winds the last several runs and
the GFS...while close on temperatures...has underdone the winds.
Perhaps they are not catching some of the stronger mixing and
instability. Thus...went a few degrees warmer toward the GFS MOS and
increased wind speeds by 3 to 4 KTS in the afternoon.

Winds will weaken quickly late this afternoon however. This along
with clear skies and a dry atmosphere will allow temperatures to
drop in the upper 30s to lower 40s. A cold front will be dropping in
toward sunrise in the northern Big Country...shifting winds to the
northwest.

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)

...Dry and Cool...

The long term remains dry, with temperatures at or slightly cooler
than seasonal normals. High pressure will dominate through the end
of this week; then, another cold front Friday will extend the cool
temperatures through the weekend. For the start of the following
work week, temperatures will begin a rebound, with afternoon highs
Monday in the 60 to 65 range.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  75  39  54  30 /   5   5   0   0
San Angelo  78  40  59  31 /   0   0   0   0
Junction  81  41  61  31 /   0   5   5   5
Brownwood  75  40  58  32 /   5   5   5   5
Sweetwater  73  38  53  31 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       77  39  60  29 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 6 PM CST this
evening for Callahan-Coke-Fisher-Haskell-Irion-Jones-Nolan-
Runnels-Shackelford-Sterling-Taylor-Throckmorton-Tom Green.

&&

$$



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