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000
FXUS64 KSJT 271137 AAA
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
637 AM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Low clouds developing early this morning over the southern third
of west central Texas will affect our southern terminals with
MVFR ceilings, and IFR conditions are briefly possible at KSOA.
Visibility reductions in patchy fog are also possible early this
morning. After 15-16Z, VFR conditions are expected. By this
afternoon, a scattered to broken VFR-based cumulus field is
expected over our southern and some eastern counties. A few
showers and thunderstorms are possible across the aforementioned
area, which includes our southern terminals. However, low
confidence in occurrence and placement precludes a mention in our
TAFs at this time. For tonight, mostly clear skies and VFR
conditions will give way to increasing low cloud development
across the southeastern third of our area overnight, with MVFR
ceilings. Light winds will become southeast today, and southeast
winds will veer to the south tonight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 345 AM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

An upper level high over northwestern Mexico and the Desert
Southwest will weaken to some extent but move little today and
tonight. Our area will be on its eastern periphery, with weak
northerly flow aloft. Some drying of the column is indicated for our
area today and tonight, with a decrease in precipitable water
values. For today, a 20-30 percent chance for showers and
thunderstorms remains across roughly the southern third of our area
and north into Brown County, where isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms are possible. Could also have a few lingering outflow
boundaries across these areas. Farther north across the Concho
Valley and Big Country areas, carrying less than 15 PoPs where mid-
level drying occurs sooner with no incoming disturbances aloft.
Temperatures will be a little warmer today, especially across our
northern and central counties where greater insolation is expected.

For tonight, substantial increase in boundary layer RH favors low
cloud development initially over our southeastern counties after
Midnight, expanding north-northwest to encompass much of the area
southeast of an Abilene-San Angelo-Ozona line by 7 AM Wednesday.
Overnight lows are expected to be in the upper 60s across most of
our southern and central counties, to the lower 70s for much of the
Big Country. Southeast winds will become south tonight.

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)

Fairly quiet period in the long term, with high pressure aloft in
control for the majority of the time. This high pressure starts
the week off centered over the Southwest US weakens slightly on
Friday as an upper level trough slides across the Mississippi
Valley, but then rebuilds fr the weekend. This slight weakening on
Friday and Friday Night may allow for a few showers and storms to
develop across the Big Country on the edge of the ridge, mainly
along and north of I-20. Chances are low, but worth mentioning at
this point. Dry conditions will continue elsewhere for now.

Temperatures will gradually warm for the end of the week, nearing
the 100 degree mark across the western portions of the Concho
Valley and Big Country. After a bit of a reprieve with the ridge
weakening, it appears temperatures will again start to climb early
next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  90  70  94  72 /  10   5   5   0
San Angelo  92  69  97  72 /  10  10   5   5
Junction  89  68  93  71 /  30  10  10   5
Brownwood  89  69  93  71 /  20  10   5   5
Sweetwater  91  70  94  72 /  10   5   5   0
Ozona       90  68  93  71 /  20  10  10   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Aviation and Short Term: 19
Long Term: 07