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356
FXUS64 KSJT 240947
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
447 AM CDT Tue Oct 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

A dry and cooler airmass will filter into the region today as
surface high pressure builds into the region from the north.
Skies will be sunny, with breezy north winds developing this
morning through mid afternoon, then diminishing by sunset.
Temperatures will be around 5 degrees below normal today, with
afternoon highs in the lower 70s. Clear skies, light winds and
a dry airmass will allow temperatures to fall into the upper
30s and lower 40s by daybreak Wednesday.


.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Tuesday)

Coldest air of the season arrives by the weekend...

The big weather story will be the temperature swing over the next
five days. On Wednesday, much of the area will see temperatures
right at seasonal normals for this time of year, with highs in the
low to mid 70s, under mostly sunny skies. An area of low pressure
over Alberta Canada will exit the northern Rockies, and move east
across the upper mid-west through the day on Thursday. The
associated cold front will move into the Texas panhandle by
Thursday afternoon. Ahead of the cold front southwesterly flow
will strengthen under a tightening pressure gradient. These
southwest, downsloping winds and compressional heating ahead of
the front will allow for temperatures to quickly warm throughout
the day. Highs on Thursday will be in the mid 80s with some of our
typically warmer spots seeing temperatures in the upper 80s.

(Thursday night through Saturday)

The strongest cold front of the season will begin to enter the Big
Country between 6-7 pm Thursday night and will move south across
the area before exiting the region by Friday morning. An upper
level trough will dig its way across northern Texas and some
models are hinting at the possibility of some light rain showers
across the Big Country Friday afternoon. Both the GFS and EC
models show a swath of light rain across the I-20 corridor, and
decided to include POPs across this area for Friday afternoon.
Across the rest of the region, expect a cold and blustery day with
northeast winds between 15-20 mph with higher gusts. These winds
will keep the area under moderate cold air advection. Highs on
Friday will struggle to get out of the 50s.

Strong radiational cooling events occurring Friday and Saturday
nights are looking more likely. Dry air from both the mid-levels
and at the surface will allow dewpoint values overnight to drop
into the upper teens to low 20s. During the night on Friday, a
surface high will move across the panhandle and settle across the
northern Big Country by Saturday morning. With clear skies, low
dewpoint values and continued cold air advection, lows on Friday
night will be in mid to upper 30s. Locations along river valleys
could see temperatures a few degrees colder. The surface high will
stall out across West Texas during the day on Saturday. Expect a
slight warmup, with daytime highs reaching the low 60s. Saturday
night will be another cold night, with temperatures in the upper
30s. Areas along the I-10 corridor could see temperatures drop
into the low 30s.

(Sunday through Tuesday)

Fall like weather with seasonal high temperatures, will be the
theme through this time period. The surface high will move into
eastern Texas by Sunday, putting our area under in a southerly
flow through Tuesday. Highs will be in the low to mid 70s on
Sunday and the upper 70s on Monday and Tuesday. Overnight lows
during this period will be in the upper 40s to low 50s.





&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  71  42  77  52 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  73  41  76  49 /   0   0   0   0
Junction  73  39  76  44 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood  71  40  76  44 /   0   0   0   0
Sweetwater  70  44  76  53 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       71  40  74  43 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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