Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KSJT 041712
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1212 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2015


.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will continue at the northern terminals through the
TAF period. Stratus forming over the southern half of West Central
Texas will lower ceilings at the southern terminals to MVFR
beginning around 08Z at KJCT and an hour or so later at the
remaining southern terminals. Ceilings are not expected to
improve to VFR during the remainder TAF period.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2015/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will prevail at most sites through the period, as
mid and high level cloudiness stream across the area. There is a
little MVFR cigs other the higher clouds that may affect the
southern terminals, but it would very brief if it does. Otherwise,
south winds of 5 to 15 knots will continue.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Fairly quiet July 4th across West Central Texas. We are a little
more concerned about the possibility of a few showers and
thunderstorms across the Big Country along and north of I-20 this
afternoon. Latest HRRR and TTU WRF both show isolated activity
developing as far south as Abilene and Sweetwater and even
Brownwood, but have held off on bringing the PoP chances this far
south quite yet. If course, these models also show convection
ongoing now where there is not anything ongoing, so initialization
is poor this morning. Will bring a mention back into the northern
Big Country however, roughly north of a Hamlin to Albany line. Will
need to watch the area farther south however as the day goes by.

Otherwise, lots of mid and high cloudiness will continue to stream
across the area. This will keep temperatures pretty close to where
they were yesterday.

LONG TERM...
(Sunday and Sunday Night)

The conditions aloft and in the low levels will be unfavorable for
convective development. Highs will be in the upper 80s to mid 90s with
lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

(Monday through Wednesday)

There will be a chance of rain across much of West Central Texas for
the early to middle part of the week. The combination of disturbances in
the upper level west-northwest flow, a surface boundary and some
instability will bring a few rounds of thunderstorms to the area.
The ECWMF model is the heaviest with the QPF amounts and the GFS and
CMC is drier. Going with chance Pops across much of the area, with
likely Pops across the northern Big Country during the Tuesday
daytime hours. However, have kept Kimble, Mason and San Saba
counties dry due to being closer to the high pressure ridge axis
aloft.

(Wednesday Night through Saturday)

A return to a dry forecast as an upper level high pressure ridge
builds across the Southern Plains. Highs will be in the 90s with
lows 70 to 75.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  74  93  74  92  73 /  10  10  10  10  40
San Angelo  72  92  73  93  73 /   5  10  10  10  20
Junction  73  90  73  91  74 /   5  10   5   5  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/99





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