Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 082316
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
516 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Expect light and variable winds overnight, becoming northwest at 5
to 10 knots by late morning Tuesday. VFR conditions will prevail
through the next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 340 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tuesday)

Gusty north-northwest winds this afternoon will quickly diminish
during the evening, as surface high pressure builds south across
West Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. Light north winds will become
west overnight. With generally clear skies and very dry air in
place, strong radiational cooling will occur across much of our area.
Overnight lows are expected to range from the mid 20s to lower 30s,
with the colder readings in low-lying areas and along river valleys.

With ample sunshine and a dry airmass Tuesday, temperatures will
rebound into the mid 60s to around 70 for highs. West winds will
veer to the northwest as a weak surface trough moves south across
parts of Texas.

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday evening through next Monday)

..Elevated fire weather conditions will persist through Friday...

Not too much change has been seen in the numerical models over the
last several cycles. They continue to show above average high
temperatures through the weekend, with low relative humidity values
at least through Friday, with some improvement in this by the
weekend. As a result, elevated fire weather conditions will persist
through the end of the work week. Persistent troughing in the mid
and upper-levels of the atmosphere across the eastern part of the
country, with strong ridging at these level across the western CONUS
will continue through the weekend. This places the forecast area in
a northwest flow aloft. Add into the mix a predominately southwest
surface wind through Friday providing added warmth via down-sloping
affects and what you have is warming/dry conditions with no hope of
any rainfall.

However, this could change just beyond the end of this forecast
range. Some of the long range models suggest a pattern change will
occur by early next week, as the eastern trough deamplifies and
upper-level energy digs into the Desert Southwest. The GFS model
closes of a mid and upper-level system by Sunday, with troughing
also extending across the Inter-mountain West to a disturbance
over Montana in the northern jet. It also shows some suggestion
of upper disturbances ejecting northeast towards West Central
Texas in the southern jet stream. Conversely, while the ECMWF does
show the same western troughing in a less amplified form, it
doesn`t develop a closed system like the GFS. These same models
have flipped their solutions compared to a few days ago, when the
ECMWF had the deeper closed low forecast and the GFS was weaker in
the pattern. Given that this is several days out, a dry pattern
was maintained through the period.

FIRE WEATHER...

A Red Flag Warning continues in effect until 6 PM today for critical
fire weather conditions, for northern and eastern parts of the Big
Country and the eastern part of the Heartland. Gusty north-northwest
winds will quickly diminish during the evening and become west
overnight.

With a combination of very dry air, very dry vegetation and above
normal day time temperatures, elevated fire weather conditions will
continue Tuesday through Thursday. West winds will become northwest
on Tuesday across much of the area. Increased and gusty south to
southwest winds are expected Wednesday into Wednesday night. Winds
are forecast to shift to north-northeast with a weak cold frontal
passage Thursday afternoon and early Thursday night.

By the weekend, an increase in low-level moisture is expected to
result in higher relative humidity values. This should help to bring
some alleviation to fire weather concerns, despite the expectation
of increased wind speeds late Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  31  68  38  73 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  26  70  34  76 /   0   0   0   0
Junction  25  68  31  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for Brown-Callahan-
Haskell-San Saba-Shackelford-Throckmorton.

&&

$$

Daniels


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