Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 020419
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1119 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Stratus is forecast to result in MVFR ceilings at KSOA and KJCT
between 11z and 12z. Stratus may approach KSJT and KBBD, but
confidence remains low so VFR ceilings were continued. VFR
ceilings will return to all sites by late morning. Light south
winds will become southeast at 5 to 10 knots Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Stratus development is expected at KJCT and KSOA between 11z and
12z, resulting in MVFR ceilings. Farther north, VFR conditions are
forecast to persist. Expect VFR conditions to return at KSOA and
KJCT around 16z. Light sound winds will become southeast at 5 to
10 knots Wednesday afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Wednesday)

Quiet weather will continue across West Central Texas the next 24
hours, with no rain expected. Scattered low clouds developed across
far southeast counties early this morning and should see some
scattered or brief broken stratus again early Wednesday morning,
generally south of Interstate 10. Guidance has been too warm with
overnight lows across southern sections and went slightly below MOS
numbers tonight, with lows ranging from the upper 60s south, to the
lower 70s north. Another sunny and warm day is expected Wednesday
with some scattered cumulus developing by afternoon. Afternoon highs
will top out in the lower and middle 90s.

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Tuesday)

Seasonably mild temperatures and dry conditions will prevail through
the weekend and into next week. A dominant upper-level ridge which
is parked over the region, will continue to maintain its residence
over the state through the period. During the weekend, a strong
trough will enter the Pacific Northwest, crossing the northern and
central Plains by early next week. As it does so, it`ll send a cold
front south towards the area. Farther south and east, an upper low
will drift southwest from the Central Gulf Coast towards South
Texas. As we get sandwiched in between the two, the ridge may
strengthen a bit over the area with a slight increase in upper-level
heights, which would allow temperatures to rise a few degrees. At
this time, the models do show such an increase in the height fields
but they really don`t show much of a thermal response at the
surface. This will be something that needs to be monitored in later
forecasts.

Otherwise, expect seasonal temperatures and dry conditions to
continue through early next week. The only rainfall potential in
sight may be tied to the aforementioned cold front. This front looks
to make it the area just beyond the forecast period, or roughly
during the middle to end of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  71  94  68  94 /   0   0   5   0
San Angelo  67  94  70  94 /   0   5   5   0
Junction  69  92  70  92 /   5   5  10   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Daniels


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