Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 271744

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
1144 AM CST FRI NOV 27 2015

/18Z TAFS/

Mostly IFR CIGs and MVFR to IFR VIS to continue through tomorrow
as warm moist air is lifted up and over the Arctic Front,
resulting in widespread light rain and fog. May see some freezing
rain develop in KABI tonight. Have not mentioned in TAF yet but
we are closely monitoring and may need to insert soon as low
temperatures fall very close to 32 degrees.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 549 AM CST FRI NOV 27 2015/

/12Z TAFS/

Look for very challenging flight weather during the next 24 hours.
Another cold front will push south of the Interstate 10 corridor
by early afternoon. Ceiling and visibility in the IFR to MVFR
range will then dominate West Central Texas for the next 24 hours.
Showers will continue to produce rain today and tonight, which
will help maintain low stratus and reduced visibility.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 359 AM CST FRI NOV 27 2015/

(Friday through Friday night)


A cold front will push south across West Central Texas today and set
the stage for additional rain and the potential for freezing rain or
sleet across our northwestern counties. The cold front has pushed
south this morning into West Central Texas and currently lies near a
line from Sterling City to Brownwood. This front should clear our
southern counties by early afternoon. Isentropic upglide will be the
main forcing feature this afternoon and overnight tonight. Will
continue the Winter Weather Advisory, as it currently stands.
Temperatures along and north of our Interstate 20 corridor will
likely fall to near the freezing mark this afternoon and tonight;
however, freezing rain or sleet will likely be limited to our
western Big Country counties, for locations mainly along and
northwest of a line from Sweetwater, to Anson, to Haskell.
Confidence regarding rainfall amounts during the next 24 hours, is
not as high as we would like. After extensive coordination with WPC
and neighboring offices, we agreed on a compromised QPF field for
this afternoon from 18Z to 00Z. With some models indicating another
round of heavier rainfall possible, with enhanced lift at the
interface of the 850mb front, increasing QPF amounts looks
reasonable for the 18Z to 00Z period for mainly our eastern Big
Country and Heartland counties.

(Saturday through Thursday)

A stationary upper low over the western CONUS on Saturday will
finally start moving northeastward on Sunday with the upper low
over the Central Plains on Monday. In response, precipitation will
end from west to east over the forecast area on Sunday. There
will be a continuing chance of a light freezing rain mix over the
western Big Country Saturday morning, but as temperatures rise
Saturday the threat from freezing precipitation should end over
the area by mid-morning. FOr the remaining CWA, heavy rainfall is
expected throughout the day on Saturday with the area of heavier
rainfall moving over our eastern counties Saturday night into
Sunday. By Sunday evening, rainfall should be ending over the
forecast area.

Our coldest day will be on Saturday with highs mostly in the upper
30s. After morning lows on Sunday generally in the low to mid
30s, Sunday afternoon will warm into the mid 40s. Monday through
Thursday will see highs in the 50s and morning lows in the mid to
upper 30s.

An upper short wave moving eastward from the west coast should affect
our area by Tuesday night into Wednesday. At this time we are only
expecting a slight chance of showers developing over the southern
half of the forecast as this upper level trough moves through.



Abilene  39  31  37  32 /  90  90  90  70
San Angelo  44  33  39  34 /  90  90  80  70
Junction  68  37  40  36 /  90  80  80  70


.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Saturday for Fisher-



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