Area Forecast Discussion
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512
FXUS62 KTAE 130511
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1211 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.Aviation...

[Through 06Z Sunday] A cold front was moving southeastward across
the region this late evening, causing winds to shift from W to
NW. Winds will be NW-N near 10 KT today, with mostly clear skies
and unrestricted Vis.

&&

.Prev Discussion [858 PM EST]...

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

A dry cold front will push south of the Tri-State area tonight
ushering in a cooler and much drier airmass. Breezy west winds will
shift to the northwest behind the front and diminish into the 5 to
10 mph range. Minimum temperatures will drop into the upper 30s to
around 40 degrees northern zones to the lower and mid 40s elsewhere.


.Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...

High pressure centered across the midwest will build into the CWA on
Saturday and this will help us to remain dry and clear. With the CWA
behind the weak front, high temperatures tomorrow be considerably
below normal, with afternoon highs more than 10 degrees cooler than
today. With the center of the surface ridge well north of the CWA
Sunday morning, winds will be light but not calm in most places.
Despite this, the majority of the area is expected to drop to or
below freezing for Sunday morning and a Freeze Warning may be
needed in future forecast issuances.

By Sunday, the center of the high is along the Carolina/Virginia
coast, setting up a wedge along the Appalachians. Given this, have
trended toward the lower side on temperatures for Sunday across the
far north.

With a shortwave expected in the long term, rain chances begin to
creep back into the far western portion of the CWA late Sunday.


.Long Term [Monday Through Friday]...

Main weather impacts will be confined to the beginning of the long
term. A shortwave will swing across the Southeast Monday night
while an associated surface low will track north of the CWA. There
are subtle differences between the GFS and ECMWF with the ECMWF a
little further north with the low. Despite these differences,
there are little differences in terms of sensible weather across the
CWA. The best chance of rain will be Monday night. Instability and
shear with the system is not impressive so the severe threat is on
the low side. There is enough CAPE though to mention scattered
thunderstorms Monday into Monday night.

Another shortwave will rotate into the TN/OH valley Tuesday night
with a weak secondary front. While the ECMWF brings the precip
with that system a little further south, the precip should remain
north of the CWA. High pressure will build in Wednesday night with
ridging aloft building in Thursday. This will be reflected in the
high temperatures warming late in the week.


.Marine...

Winds are at cautionary levels across the marine area this
afternoon but will increase to advisory levels late tonight into
Saturday morning across the offshore western zone. High pressure
will build in on Saturday and winds will decrease for a short
time, but increase again to cautionary levels Saturday night. A
wave will move through Monday into Monday night and bring back
advisory levels winds. Behind this, high pressure will build in
for mid week and the winds will weaken. By the end of the week
though, winds will increase again to cautionary levels.


.Fire Weather...

Critically low RH levels are expected region-wide tomorrow
afternoon. At the same time, 20ft winds may near the 15 mph required
for Red Flag criteria. However, fuel moisture will remain below
critical levels across FL/AL/GA, precluding a Red Flag warning. It
should be noted that gusty winds are expected again tomorrow,
increasing transport winds, and subsequently dispersion indices to
above 75. A gradual moistening trend will commence starting Sunday
and lasting into early next week.


.Hydrology...
A few sites remain in flood this afternoon, but should fall below
flood stage tomorrow. For the latest heights and forecast, visit
weather.gov/ahps.


The next system that will bring rain to the area will be early
next week. This will be a fairly quick system and forecast
rainfall amounts from Sunday night into Tuesday are around a half
inch to an inch. These rain amounts are not expected to push any
rivers that fell below flood back into flood.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   58  31  61  43  68 /   0   0  10  10  40
Panama City   57  36  58  48  65 /   0   0  10  20  60
Dothan        53  30  58  42  64 /   0   0  10  20  60
Albany        53  26  55  40  66 /   0   0  10  10  40
Valdosta      56  32  61  43  70 /   0   0  10  10  20
Cross City    61  33  64  45  72 /   0   0  10  10  20
Apalachicola  59  36  59  48  65 /   0   0  10  10  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ early this
     morning FOR Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning FOR Waters
     from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...FIEUX
LONG TERM...FIEUX
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...FIEUX
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...FIEUX



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