Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KTAE 202354
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
754 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Only a couple of isolated showers remain across the area, and
these should dissipate shortly. Our region will see clearing
skies and cooler temperatures overnight with lows generally in the
low to mid 60s, except lower 70s at the beaches.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00z Monday] VFR conditions are expected to prevail
through the period with light winds.

&&

.Prev Discussion [422 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Sunday Through Monday Night]...

For Sunday, relatively sunny skies are expected with dry weather
as PWATs are forecast to fall below 1 inch over the entire area
with deep-layer dry air advection from the north. The GFS forecast
values are nearly 2 standard deviations below normal. We expect
highs near 90 with lower humidity. Changes are expected by Monday
as a shortwave trough will dig southeast into the region. The GFS
indicates a much less amplified wave, with weak QG convergence.
However, the new 12Z ECMWF has trended towards a sharper, more
amplified shortwave with relatively strong QG convergence. The
result is higher QPF in that particular model. The 12Z ECMWF
ensemble mean depicts a more amplified wave than the operational
GFS too, although not as amplified as the operational ECMWF
(perhaps only 25-30% of the ensemble members are). Given that is a
recent change, we went with a forecast that maintained more
continuity, although if the trend continues on the 00Z models,
PoPs and sky cover may need to be trended up on Monday -
especially in the northern half of the area. For now, PoPs are
around 20% over most of the area. Highs ahead of the approaching
front will be in the 89-92 degree range in most areas (just above
normal values).


.Long Term [Tuesday Through Saturday]...

A strong surface high is likely to persist through much of the
period over the Northeast US, with an average 5-day position
somewhere in the vicinity of NY/PA per the GFS and ECMWF. With a
trend toward lower than normal surface pressures in the Gulf, this
will place the Gulf coast region in an extended period of easterly
low-level flow. Through mid-week, this should be accompanied by
cooler than normal temperatures and isolated showers. As next
weekend approaches (especially Friday and Saturday), rain chances
may begin to increase as tropical moisture arrives through slow,
steady northward advection over the course of the week.


.Marine...

With a ship report in our offshore coastal zone reporting winds of
18-19 knots over the past couple hours, and several buoys
indicating similar winds, we will maintain a SCEC headline into
the evening hours, even though the trend has been for winds to
diminish. Relatively calm winds and seas are expected from Sunday
into Monday before the next front arrives on Tuesday, ushering in
an extended period of at least SCEC winds.


.Fire Weather...

Relative humidity values will remain above critical thresholds
over the next several days despite the intrusion of drier air.
Thus, hazardous dire weather conditions are not expected.


.Hydrology...

Only light rainfall amounts are expected to fall across the region
over the next several days, creating little or no impact on our
area rivers and streams.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   65  90  64  92  66 /  10   0   0  20  20
Panama City   71  88  72  90  69 /  10   0   0  20  20
Dothan        64  89  66  90  62 /  10   0   0  20  10
Albany        63  90  65  89  63 /  10   0   0  20  10
Valdosta      62  90  62  91  64 /  10   0   0  20  20
Cross City    65  89  65  91  65 /  20  10  10  10  10
Apalachicola  70  86  70  88  71 /  20   0   0  10  20

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...GOULD





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.