Area Forecast Discussion
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229
FXUS62 KTAE 191358
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
858 AM EST Sun Nov 19 2017

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...
Cold front has exited the Southeastern Big Bend, taking the line
of showers with it. A cool day is in store across the area with
temperatures struggling to get to the upper 50s and lowers 60s for
most areas. Have updated the forecast primarily to remove PoPs.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [604 AM EST]...

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Tuesday]...

Surface high pressure slides eastward becoming centered to our north
by Monday morning. With light or calm winds and a dry airmass in
place overnight, lows will drop into the mid 30s inland to around 40
along the coast. Patchy frost remains possible inland areas. The
surface high will quickly move east and off the SE U.S coast
Tuesday. Deep layer moisture will spread over our area Tuesday as a
shortwave dives southward carving out a deep trough over the GOMEX.
A weak surface low is forecast to develop over the eastern Gulf and
lift northeastward toward the western Florida coast Tuesday night.
This will spread rain back over our area with the best chance (40-
50%) across our Florida zones. The airmass will begin to modify with
highs Monday mostly in the mid to upper 60s and upper 60s to mid 70s
on Tuesday. Lows Monday night will be in the upper 40s to lower
50s.


.LONG TERM [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]...

Both the 00z GFS and 12z EURO show the aforementioned surface low
moving inland and across north central Florida Tuesday night.
Then, as the upper trough further amplifies, a secondary surface
low develops over the eastern Gulf. The EURO solution closes off
an upper low in the north central Gulf on Thursday. This feature
and associated surface low track east-northeastward across north
central Florida by Thursday night. The GFS shows a weaker surface
low tracking eastward across south Florida during the same time.
The EURO solution obviously would bring deeper moisture further
north along with better rain chances to our area Wednesday through
Thursday. Will continue to blend solutions and keep highest PoPs
over our southern and eastern zones. As the surface and upper low
move east, look for drier conditions to return for the weekend. In
either scenario, temperatures (especially high temperatures) will
likely be below normal with highs generally in the lower to mid
60s.


.AVIATION...

[Through 12z Monday] Lingering MVFR ceilings are expected to clear
out during the mid-morning hours with VFR conditions returning.
Northwest winds are expected to gust to around 20 knots today across
most of the area behind a cold front, diminishing around sunset.


.MARINE...

Expect Small Craft Advisory conditions in the wake of this
morning`s frontal passage. Winds and seas will begin to subside
this evening or late tonight as high pressure builds in across
the local waters. However, strong winds may return by mid to late
week as a surface low moves eastward across the Gulf.


.FIRE WEATHER...

A drier airmass will move into the area behind a cold front today
and Monday, but red flag conditions are not expected.


.HYDROLOGY...

No hydro concerns.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   63  35  67  50  70 /   0   0   0  10  40
Panama City   63  39  65  53  69 /   0   0   0  20  40
Dothan        59  35  63  47  67 /   0   0   0  10  30
Albany        61  35  63  47  68 /   0   0   0  10  20
Valdosta      63  34  66  50  71 /   0   0   0  10  40
Cross City    66  35  70  53  74 /  10   0   0  10  50
Apalachicola  64  39  65  55  70 /   0   0   0  20  50

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for Apalachee
     Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee
     River Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River
     to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from
     Suwannee River to Keaton Beach out 20 NM-Coastal waters
     from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from
     Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters
     from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Camp
SHORT TERM...Barry
LONG TERM...Barry
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...Barry
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...Barry



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