Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 241049
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
649 AM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017

.AVIATION [Through 12Z Saturday]...

LIFR cigs have developed in and around VLD with MVFR cigs at ABY.
Point soundings indicate that these degraded flight conditions
will persist through 15Z at which time conditions will improve.
Across the other terminals, VFR will prevail. As surface high
pressure continues to move into the western Atlantic, wind
directions will gradually veer from the east this morning to the
southeast this afternoon. Wind speeds will be around 10-15 knots
with gusts approaching 20 knots.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [352 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

Mid level ridging across the southeast states will slowly shift
eastward as an upper low moves into the southern Plains. Surface
ridging, featuring the surface high center in the western Atlantic
and east to southeast wind flow across our area, will remain in
control. Low level moisture will begin to dry out today but high
level moisture from the Pacific associated with the southern Plains
trough will move into the area beginning later this morning. A mix
of clouds and sun is expected today with highs in the upper 70s to
around 80 degrees.


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Sunday]...

In the upper levels a cut-off low over the Great Plains will move
over IL/MO by Saturday evening. A trough will approach the region
in the late afternoon and evening hours on Saturday. At the
surface a low will be over IL/MO on Saturday. The associated cold
front will not make it this far south. The best chance for rain
will be late afternoon and evening on Saturday as the trough
approaches. POPs up to 45 percent are forecast in western portions
of the region in the late afternoon and evening hours.
Thunderstorms are possible with moderate 0-6km shear and dew
points in the lower 60s. CAPE will be moderate in the afternoon
and low after sunset. A few strong to severe storms can`t be ruled
out in western parts of the region. SPC has a marginal risk for
severe storms west of a line from Panama City to Dothan. Lows will
be in the mid to upper 50s. Highs will be in the upper 70s and
lower 80s.


.LONG TERM [Sunday Night Through Friday]...

In the upper levels another trough will move through on Monday
evening. Then a ridge will be over the Southeast for a few days.
At the surface a weak pressure gradient will be in place until the
next low approaches on Thursday night. The best chances for rain
will be Monday evening with POPs up to 30 percent and Thursday
night. Lows will be in the 50s and highs will be in the lower 80s.


.MARINE...

Strong easterly winds will continue through this afternoon. A
Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until 5pm EDT for most of
the coastal waters. Winds will remain elevated through Saturday
evening.


.FIRE WEATHER...


High dispersions values above 75 possible this afternoon across the
Florida panhandle, Florida Big Bend, and southeast Alabama.

High pressure will remain in control today but will shift eastward
as a low pressure system approaches from the west. Rain chances will
increase from west to east Saturday but with rainfall remaining
across SE Alabama and Florida panhandle. Locations east of this area
can expect possible rainfall beginning Saturday night.


.HYDROLOGY...

Local rivers are well below action levels. Rain totals are
forecast to be less than half an inch over the next seven days. No
flooding concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   80  57  78  58  80 /   0   0  10  20  20
Panama City   75  63  73  64  74 /   0   0  30  30  20
Dothan        79  58  78  60  79 /   0   0  30  40  30
Albany        79  57  80  60  81 /   0   0  20  20  30
Valdosta      79  56  80  59  81 /   0   0  10  20  20
Cross City    78  55  81  58  80 /   0   0   0  10  10
Apalachicola  74  62  73  63  74 /   0   0  10  20  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for Coastal
     Waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20
     Nm-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60
     NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Scholl
SHORT TERM...McDermott
LONG TERM...McDermott
AVIATION...Scholl
MARINE...McDermott
FIRE WEATHER...Scholl
HYDROLOGY...McDermott


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