Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 240136
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
836 PM EST Thu Feb 23 2017

.UPDATE...

Shortwave ridging in the mid levels continues to build in behind
the departing low pressure area with surface winds from the
northeast. Light wind speeds coupled with recent rainfall could
lead to some patchy fog formation overnight. Overnight lows will
fall into the mid 50s.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [626 PM EST]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
Deep layer low pressure system off the east coast of Florida will
continue to lift northeast overnight. Light northeast flow will
continue over the forecast area on the northwest side of this
system. Expect conditions to be dry, with just some patchy fog,
mainly over eastern portions of the area.


.SHORT TERM [Friday Through Saturday Night]...
At the start of the period, shortwave ridging will be building over
the region as the low pressure system east of the Florida Peninsula
continues moving eastward into the Atlantic. The weather will be
quiet on Friday as the region remains between the departing low
pressure system and an approaching frontal system across the Upper
Mississippi River Valley. High temperatures on Friday will be well
above normal, with highs generally in the lower 80s. This is on the
order of 9 to 12 degrees above normal for the date. Highs should be
just below the record high of 83 degrees at Tallahassee.

Friday night, a cold front will move eastward across the Mississippi
River toward our region. The bulk of the energy (and parent low
pressure system) will be well to the north at this time frame across
Michigan. As a result, expect very little if any precip along the
front as it approaches the region by daybreak. Will keep a slight
chance PoP in the forecast, though it`s possible that even this is
overdone.

Saturday, the front will cross the area during the morning hours
clearing to the east by mid afternoon. Sunny skies behind the front
will be competing with cold advection. Expect highs to still be
above normal, though only in the low to mid 70s.

Saturday night, high pressure will be rapidly building eastward
across the Southeast during the overnight hours, and depending on
the model, either at a position by 12z over Middle Georgia or
across the Northern Gulf Coast. The consensus of the 12z guidance
and the last several runs seem to suggest that the high will be
further north, which implies that temperatures may not get quite
as cold as the MOS guidance shows. The latest forecast for Sunday
morning is already on the warmer side of the guidance, and see
little reason to make any changes at this time. This has low
temperatures in the upper 30s across our northern zones down to
the lower 40s in much of North Florida.


.LONG TERM [Sunday Through Thursday]...
The long term begins with surface high pressure over the region and
temperatures just below normal with lows in the upper 30s to low 40s
and highs in the mid to upper 60s. After Sunday, highs begin to
increase into the upper 70s to lower 80s and lows into the upper
50s. As the surface high pressure continues to move eastward, a
system building behind it will move through the SE CONUS and bring
rain mainly to our AL and GA counties starting on Monday. On
Wednesday night, a cold front will move southeastward through the
CWA bringing widespread rain to the region.


.AVIATION [Through 00Z Saturday]...

Patchy fog will develop late tonight. IFR and LIFR conditions are
possible particularly at TLH, ABY and VLD. VFR conditions will
return shortly after sunrise.


.MARINE...
Winds will diminish across the marine area this evening and remain
light through Friday evening. Winds will increase to cautionary
levels early Saturday morning and remain strong through the day
behind a dry cold front. There`s a possibility of a brief period of
advisory conditions on Saturday night, before winds decrease on
Sunday. However, conditions will rapidly deteriorate Sunday evening
as the pressure gradient tightens between a storm system over the
Western Gulf and high pressure off the Atlantic. Another period of
advisory level winds are possible from Sunday night into Monday
afternoon.


.FIRE WEATHER...
No fire weather concerns for Friday. On Saturday and Sunday much
drier air will be over the region. RH values will be low enough to
meet Red Flag criteria in a few counties in the Florida Panhandle
and Southwest Georgia. Winds will be moderate around 15 mph but fuel
moisture will likely be high enough that a Red Flag Warning won`t
be needed.


.HYDROLOGY...
Modest rises continue on the Florida Panhandle rivers from rainfall
earlier this week. The Choctawhatchee River from Caryville through
Bruce will reach action stage, but should stay below flood stage.
Planned releases out of Walter F George Lake have increased inflows
from the Chattahoochee River into Lake Seminole, and as a result,
the Apalachicola River at Blountstown will crest at or just above
action stage on Friday.

No significant rainfall is expected over the next 5 days, and as a
result, there are no river flood concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   56  81  58  76  40 /   0   0   0  20   0
Panama City   61  73  61  71  45 /   0   0  10  20   0
Dothan        56  80  57  70  39 /   0   0  20  10   0
Albany        55  81  58  72  38 /   0   0  10  20   0
Valdosta      57  82  58  77  42 /   0   0   0  20   0
Cross City    57  82  57  77  43 /   0   0   0  10   0
Apalachicola  60  73  61  74  45 /   0   0  10  20   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Scholl
NEAR TERM...Camp
SHORT TERM...Godsey
LONG TERM...Godsey
AVIATION...McDermott
MARINE...Godsey
FIRE WEATHER...McDermott
HYDROLOGY...Godsey



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