Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 301512
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1112 AM EDT Sat Aug 30 2014
.Near Term [Rest of Today]...
Previous fcst is essentially well on track and the only significant
change made on this update was to up PoPs 10% across the board
for this afternoon, with plenty of deep layer moisture still
advecting in off the Gulf of Mexico on SE Flow. This morning`s TAE
sounding came in with 1.86" of PWAT and significant cooling
between 700 and 400 mb. This, along with backing data from the
GOES Blended TPW product and our very active 09 UTC local WRF run
was enough to convince me that the upcoming drying effects of the
Upper Level Ridge are still a day away.
.Prev Discussion [551 AM EDT]...
.Short Term [Tonight Through Monday]...
The upper level ridge axis will remain firmly in place over the
region through Monday, setting up similar conditions on Sunday and
Monday as what is forecast for Saturday. Model forecast soundings
reveal very little change in the temperature profile in the lowest
1-2km in this time frame, which should lead to highs in the mid
90s and lows in the low-mid 70s - both slightly above normal.
Despite the upper level ridging, there should be sufficient
moisture and instability for isolated to scattered thunderstorms.
The ridging may act to suppress convection somewhat, so our PoP
forecast for both days is mainly around 30%, with highest values
focused in the afternoon hours each day.
.Long Term [Monday Night Through Saturday]...
The extended period will be dominated by an upper ridge over the
northeastern Gulf Coast. The subtropical ridge axis will remain
just north of the forecast area, keeping the low-level flow out of
the south or southeast. With the upper ridge in place and little
synoptic forcing, temperatures are expected to be a little above
normal (lower to mid 90s) with lower than normal rain chances.
[Through 12z Sunday] Patchy fog early this morning will give way
to prevailing VFR conditions at all sites by mid-morning.
Scattered convection is expected this afternoon with the highest
probabilities (~50%) at DHN, ABY, and VLD.
A longer fetch of southeasterly winds from roughly TPA-PNS today
should yield some 3 foot seas over the western parts of our
coastal waters with slightly longer wave periods of 6-7 seconds.
Winds and seas should not reach SCEC levels, though, and will
decrease slightly early next week. The longer fetch of 10-15kt
winds may set up more active rip currents today - particularly in
Walton County, and perhaps Bay County.
Relative humidity values will remain above critical levels for the
next several days with no fire weather concerns.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected through the
weekend. Some locally heavy rainfall amounts are possible, but
widespread heavy rain does not look likely. There are no flooding
concerns at this time since river levels are already very low due
to a drier than average summer.
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 95 75 95 73 96 / 50 20 40 10 30
Panama City 91 79 92 77 92 / 40 10 30 10 30
Dothan 93 73 95 74 97 / 60 20 30 10 30
Albany 95 74 96 74 96 / 60 40 30 10 30
Valdosta 95 73 94 72 95 / 60 50 40 10 30
Cross City 94 74 93 72 94 / 50 30 40 10 30
Apalachicola 91 78 90 77 91 / 40 10 30 10 30