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FXUS62 KTAE 041528
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1128 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...

Broad troughing continues to cover the eastern half of the country
this morning, with a weak surface front (marked by a Td gradient)
draped northeast to southwest from Augusta to Mobile. Also, a
strengthening area of low pressure sits off the SC coast.
Satellite derived PWATs depict just over 1" behind the frontal
boundary that cuts off our SE Alabama and SW Georgia counties from
the rest. Ahead of the boundary, PWATs steadily increase to around
2" across the southeast Big Bend, with 1.6" sampled from the
morning sounding near Tallahassee. W/E oriented mesoscale
boundaries seen clearly on radar this morning allowed for some
slow moving storms to dump very heavy rain over Taylor and parts
of Dixie county. Just inland of Keaton Beach, nearly 6 inches of
rain fell. These storms have since diminished and any meaningful
convection will likely form along the seabreeze fronts beginning
early this afternoon. Some isolated pulse severe storms will be
possible across the Big Bend this afternoon where 3-4k J/kg SBCAPE
align with moderately high d-ThetaE values. This is further
corroborated by CAM modeled updrafts around 15m/s suggesting a
low-end severe threat within isolated storms.

Highs today will reach the middle to upper 90s, except possibly
across the southeast Big Bend where there is significant cloud
debris from this mornings storms.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Wednesday]...

VFR will prevail outside of thunderstorms today. Storms will be
most likely from ECP to TLH to VLD. Similar to this morning,
patchy MVFR visibilities will be possible near dawn ahead of a
frontal boundary.

&&

.Prev Discussion [423 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Thursday]...
With the region on the western edge of the subtropical ridge for
the short term period, expect a return to the typical summertime
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Model guidance
suggests areas across the Florida Big Bend and into South Central
Georgia will be favored for convection on Wednesday. By Thursday,
the leading edge of the next storm system moves into the Mid
South, and with deep layer moisture on the increase across the
western portion of the region, expect greater rain chances in the
western zones Thursday afternoon.

High temperatures throughout the short term period should be in
the mid 90s.


.Long Term [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]...
Primary focus for the long term period will be the approach of a
frontal system on Friday and Saturday. The main energy with this
system will move quickly through the Tennessee Valley on Friday
and reach the Mid Atlantic Coast by Saturday. A frontal boundary
will stall across the region early in the weekend, suggesting a
couple of high PoP days, especially through Sunday. Model guidance
then diverges on whether some drier air will filter in from the
north (GFS) or the region stays stuck in a wet pattern into the
first of next week (Euro). For now will indicate rain chances at
the end of the period slightly above climatology. With a wet
pattern expected for at least the first half of the long term
period, should see afternoon high temperatures in the lower 90s.


.Marine...
Winds and seas will return to typical summertime levels through
much of this week as high pressure builds back over the marine
area. A weak frontal system will approach the region by the
weekend and may result in a slight increase in winds.


.Fire Weather...
Warm and humid conditions will continue for the next several days
with scattered convection, mainly in the afternoon and early
evening.


.Hydrology...
The Steinhatchee River has crested and is now starting to slowly
fall. It is expected that the river will remain above flood stage
for at least the next few days, likely dropping below flood stage
on Friday morning.

With mainly scattered afternoon and evening storms the next few
days, do not anticipate any additional river flood concerns,
though areas in the Southeast Florida Big Bend, particularly in
Dixie County, will be especially prone to further areal flooding,
should any storms move over the area during the next couple of
days.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   96  76  93  75  92 /  50  10  40  20  40
Panama City   88  78  88  78  88 /  30  20  40  20  40
Dothan        98  75  94  74  93 /  20  10  40  20  50
Albany        96  76  95  74  92 /  20  10  40  20  50
Valdosta      94  76  94  74  92 /  50  20  40  20  40
Cross City    90  76  92  74  91 /  70  20  40  20  40
Apalachicola  90  79  88  77  87 /  30  20  30  20  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK through this evening FOR Coastal Franklin-
     Coastal Gulf.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY



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