Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 262034
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
234 PM MDT Thu Mar 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Saturday...The forecast area will be under the
influence of a strong upper ridge into Friday night. The upper ridge
which was over the Pacific Northwest Thursday afternoon will move to
western Montana Friday and then to eastern Montana Friday night. The
main weather feature to deal with during the forecast period will be
an upper trough which will move into central Montana Saturday
afternoon or possibly evening. The associated cold front is expected
to reach the continental divide late Friday night then move through
the plains and southwest Montana Saturday morning. Snow levels from
8000 to 9000 feet ahead of the front will fall to between 6000 and
7000 feet behind the front. Snow accumulations up to several inches
are expected in the mountains of the Rocky Mountain Front. For the
plains and valleys expect scattered showers Saturday. Would have
considered going with higher chances of showers but models differ
with details of the upper trough.

High wind watch...Gusty winds are expected with and behind the
cold front Saturday but am not too excited about a high wind
event. Winds aloft are not all that great. In addition winds aloft
could be diminishing when there is maximum daytime heating.
Actually more of a problem with high winds could be over Blaine
County where there will be strong pressure rises behind a Canadian
cold front Saturday afternoon which moves into that area and also
where winds aloft could be possibly as high as 50 knots. At this
time do not have enough confidence to issue a high wind watch but
the situation will need to be monitored. As for the current high
wind watch confidence level for a high wind event is only around
30 percent at this time. Can not rule out a stray wind gust
approaching 50 knots with afternoon showers on Saturday.

Record temperatures...Still expect widespread high temperatures
Friday to be near record levels. However a portion of southwest
Montana and also a few locations in Fergus and Blaine Counties
could also be near record levels Saturday afternoon. Blank

Saturday Night through Thursday...Period begins with high pressure
ridging redeveloping over the northern Rockies. Swaths of moisture
crossing through the top of the ridge will bring scattered cloud
cover, but no precipitation is expected from Sun thru Mon night.
Forecast models continue to indicate arrival of a quick-moving
shortwave trof on Tues that will produce areas of light valley
rain/mtn snow on Tue aftn/eve. Lower elevation sites along the
Rocky Mtn Front and parts of the Hi-Line and southwest MT could
see some rain/snow mix or light snow Tues night as colder air
mixes with waning moisture before the system moves off into
eastern MT. Central and Hi-Line counties could also see a period
of strong, gusty winds on Tues with the trof`s passage, resulting
from both mixing of 60 mph winds aloft and a sufficiently tight
surface pressure gradient. Models are in general agreement that
cool, moist northwest flow aloft will persist during the latter
half of the week with another Pacific shortwave trof coming into
the state on Thurs, accompanied by a mix of light rain/snow.
Waranauskas

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1740Z.
VFR conditions will prevail over the region thru the period. The
morning light rain showers have generally diminished. Gusty west
winds will continue into the afternoon hours. Pirep reports have
indicated mountain wave turbulence along the front range...and that
trend will continue into the early evening hours. Mid/high level
cloudiness should be expected over much of the region through the
period as well. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  42  72  46  63 /   0   0   0  30
CTB  41  70  45  60 /   0   0  10  50
HLN  40  72  43  61 /   0   0  10  20
BZN  33  71  36  63 /  10   0   0  30
WEY  27  56  33  57 /  10   0   0  40
DLN  38  70  41  61 /   0   0   0  20
HVR  36  73  41  66 /   0   0   0  50
LWT  42  71  46  63 /  10   0   0  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH from late Friday night through Saturday evening
Eastern Glacier...Liberty...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...
Southern Rocky Mountain Front...Toole.

&&

$$

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