Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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805
FXUS65 KTWC 191016
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
314 AM MST Sun Feb 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A good chance of valley rain and mountain snow continues
through this afternoon, then showers will end tonight. Dry
conditions will prevail across much of the area Monday into next
Saturday. However, a few snow showers may occur across the White
Mountains Wednesday night and Thursday. Expect much warmer
temperatures by mid week before cooler temperatures return late in
the upcoming week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A storm system continued to track through Arizona
early this morning with lingering showers. Models move this system
east of the area by this evening. Expect instability showers and
possibly a thunderstorm or two this afternoon before clearing this
evening and tonight. Thereafter, a strong ridge of high pressure
aloft will bring dry conditions and much warmer daytime
temperatures, especially Tuesday and Wednesday. Models were still
showing another system passing north of the area that could bring a
few showers to the White Mountains Wednesday night and Thursday.
Another system may impact the region late next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 20/12Z.
Scattered to numerous valley -SHRA and mountain SHSN will occur into
this afternoon, then precipitation coverage decreases markedly late
this afternoon and early evening. Otherwise, cloud decks will
generally be 4k-8k ft AGL, but occasional MVFR ceilings/visibilities
will also prevail. Surface wind will be sly/swly at 8-13 kts with
gusts to 15-20 kts thru 20/02Z, then surface wind will generally be
less than 10 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A low pressure system will bring a good chance of
valley rain and mountain snow through this afternoon. A slight
chance of showers exists tonight, then dry conditions will prevail
across much of the area Monday into next Saturday. The exception may
be a few snow showers across the White Mountains Wednesday night and
Thursday. Some gusty winds will occur today and then again Thursday.
Otherwise, 20-foot winds will mainly be less than 15 mph.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    Winter Storm Warning until 5 PM MST today for AZZ510-511-
      513-514 above 7500 feet.

    Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST today for AZZ512
      above 7500 feet.

&&

$$

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