Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 290349
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
845 PM MST SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND...WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS FOR SOME LOCATIONS. A WEAK WEATHER
DISTURBANCE WILL THEN TRACK ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A FEW SHOWERS EAST OF TUCSON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE OUR
WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. WE SAW A RATHER WARM AFTERNOON WITH SEVERAL
LOCATIONS EXCEEDING RECORD LEVELS, INCLUDING TUCSON INTERNATIONAL.
PLEASE SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS.

PATCHY CLOUD IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
PROBABLY MODERATE OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA TONIGHT,
DESPITE THE RATHER LOW DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS AND 20S. ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS FOR A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD TRENDS OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. NO ADDITIONAL UPDATES EXPECTED. PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 30/06Z.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
PATCHY CIRRUS LEVEL CLOUDS IN A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND NORMAL
DIURNAL WIND TRENDS ARE EXPECTED. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WARM AND DRY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A FEW
SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED EAST OF
TUCSON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT, MAINLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY.
AFTERNOON BREEZINESS WILL THEN BE THE RULE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THIS WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS WITH FAIR NIGHTTIME RECOVERIES. A
MODEST MOISTURE INCREASE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL TRANSLATE INTO
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE AGAIN
EXPECTED SUNDAY. RECORDS THAT FELL TODAY (SAT MAR 28):

LOCATION                  RECORD  OLD RECORD
TUCSON INTL AIRPORT         93    91/1943
BISBEE-DOUGLAS AIRPORT      87    85/2012
KITT PEAK                   74    73/1986
ORGAN PIPE CACTUS           95    94/1986

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...THE UPPER PATTERN IS DEFINED AND DOMINATED BY A
STRONG LARGE-SCALE UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
WEST...WHICH IS DIRECTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SUNNY SKIES AND NEAR
RECORD/RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY. A WEAK UPPER LOW POSITIONED
IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC NEAR 28N/130W IS POISED TO IMPACT SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA BY MONDAY AS IT TRACKS EAST...MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF
ARIZONA.

THE MAIN WEATHER STORY TODAY WILL BE THE HEAT ACROSS ALL OF
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THIS WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH THE MEAN RIDGE STAYS PUT
ACROSS THE WEST...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL TRACK EAST SUNDAY. TODAY SHOULD BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR RECORD OR
RECORD. PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

OTHERWISE...THE WEAK UPPER LOW IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL MOVE EAST
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...TRACKING INTO BAJA AND SONORA MEXICO.
ALTHOUGH THE MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS ARE STILL INDICATING MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE INTO THE
FAR SE CORNER OF THE STATE...THEY ARE BACKING OFF ON THE AMOUNT. MY
CONFIDENCE IS DECREASING THAT THE AREA WILL HAVE MEANINGFUL RAINFALL
WITH THIS SYSTEM. THEREFORE...I HAVE DECIDED TO SLIGHTLY PAIR BACK
ON POPS ON SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EAST OF TUCSON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER




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