Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
FXUS65 KTWC 280341

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
845 PM MST FRI MAY 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A weak upper level low near the Desert Southwest will
help maintain temperatures a few degrees below average into early
next week. Strong high pressure will then build over the region the
second half of next week, resulting in hotter temperatures with
highs of 100 or more forecast across the lower deserts by Thursday
or Friday.


.DISCUSSION...Our large scale long period mean trough position over
western states is starting to break up and fill over the next 72
hours.  In the short term we will continue to see temperatures a few
degrees below average into early next week.  Dry lower levels are
allowing overnight lows to drop even lower compared to seasonal
normals.  For example, Douglas had a record low of 42 this morning,
which was 13 degrees below average for the date.

By early next week we`ll see major features reconsolidate into a new
pattern with a strong ridge developing over the Desert Southwest.
This will usher in above average temperatures by week`s end, with
the potential of finally hitting our first 100 at Tucson
International Airport by Thursday or Friday (even a few spots around
the city have already seen 100).


A clear to mostly clear sky will prevail through the period except
sct cumulus clouds 10-12k ft agl in the afternoon over the mountains
NE of KTUS.  Normal diurnal wind trends mainly less than 10 kts
overnight, followed by increasing west and southwest winds Saturday
afternoon with gusts to 25 kts.  Aviation discussion not updated for
TAF ammendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions with near normal conditions expected
this weekend and early next week with lighter, more typical diurnal
20-ft winds, but still gusty during the afternoon and early evening


.TWC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.




Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.