Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 261631
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
930 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN A STRONG WARMING
TREND THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH ABOVE AVERAGE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING THIS WEEKEND. A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM
WILL THEN BRING A CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...IR/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE CLEAR SKIES ACROSS SE AZ AT THIS TIME. DEWPOINTS AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS VALID 16Z WERE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. 26/12Z KTWC SOUNDING
TOTAL PRECIP WATER VALUE WAS 0.27 INCH...STILL REPRESENTATIVE OF A
VERY DRY REGIME. 26/12Z UPPER AIR PLOTS DEPICTED A 591 DM HIGH
CENTERED WEST OF THE NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST VICINITY 28N/123W...
AND RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED NWD INTO THE PACIFIC NW. LIGHT TO MODERATE
NLY/NWLY FLOW ABOVE 700 MB PREVAILED OVER SE AZ.

EXPECT SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TODAY...WITH HIGH TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON TO BE ABOUT 5-10 DEGS F WARMER VERSUS TUE. THERE ARE NO
UPDATES PLANNED AT THIS TIME. PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL
SECTIONS FOR FURTHER DETAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 27/18Z.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT NEAR THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL
MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS THRU THANKSGIVING MORNING. EXPECT CLEAR
SKIES OR PERHAPS A FEW CLOUDS ABOVE 20K FT AGL...AND SURFACE WIND
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY AND WARMER INTO THE COMING WEEKEND. OTHER THAN
LOCALLY GUSTY EAST WINDS THANKSGIVING DAY...EXPECT NORMAL DIURNAL
WIND TRENDS. A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...THE MAIN STORY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WAS ALREADY
SHOWING UP ON THE 00Z KTWC SOUNDING WHERE WE HAD 6-12 DEGREES OF
WARMING BETWEEN H5 AND H7. AS THE RIDGE PHASES OVERHEAD WE WILL JUMP
FAIRLY QUICKLY FROM THE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES OF THE PAST FEW
DAYS TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. AFTER THIS
MORNING...DRY AND MILD WEATHER WITH DAYTIME HIGHS AROUND 7-10
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE INTO THE WEEKEND.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE A VERY UNSETTLED SEASONAL PATTERN TRYING TO
SET UP FOR US NEXT WEEK. CONSOLIDATING AND THEN REINFORCED ENERGY
SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...BUT THEN WHAT? DECENT CHANCE AT A STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM
IMPACTING MOST OF WESTERN REGION BUT IT`S NOT CLEAR IF IT WILL COME
ACROSS IN ONE PIECE. LATEST ECMWF TRYING TO SPLIT A LITTLE MORE
ENERGY INTO A POSITION JUST OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND THEN
SUBSEQUENTLY LOSES HIGHER LATITUDE SUPPORT WITH THE INITIAL SHOT
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY LEAVING THE SPLIT BEHIND.
PREVIOUS 12Z ENSEMBLE MEANS WERE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND A FAIR
REPRESENTATION OF CONSENSUS. WE`LL SEE IF TODAY`S 12Z KEEPS THIS
CUT-OFF OR NEAR CUT-OFF RESOLUTION FOR NEXT WEEK. INTERESTING THAT
EXPERIMENTAL GFS13 TRENDS ARE ALSO TRENDING BACK TOWARD DEEPER AND
SLOWER ENERGY COMPARED TO THE OPERATIONAL GFS. TIMING GOES OUT THE
WINDOW IF THAT ENERGY GETS CUT OFF. SLOWING THE FORECAST A BIT MORE
BUT STILL DOMINATED BY THE PREVIOUS 12Z ECMWF.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MEYER/RASMUSSEN




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