Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 200329
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
827 PM MST FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LINGERING MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT COULD PROVIDE
REDUCED RAINFALL CHANCES NEXT WEEK. EXPECT GRADUALLY WARMER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES INTO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE POP FORECAST MAINLY TO
LOWER VALUES BUT STILL KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OVERNIGHT PER
MODELS. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST LOOKED ON TRACK WITH LINGERING
MOISTURE OVER THE WEEKEND KEEPING RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST.
PLEASE REFER TO THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IN THIS PRODUCT FOR MORE
DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 21/06Z.
EXPECT ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA WILL OCCUR THRU SATURDAY EVENING.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO NEXT
WEEK...FUELING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. TUE AND WED SHOULD BE THE LEAST ACTIVE DAYS WITH AN
UPTICK FORECAST BY THURSDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...POP FORECASTS FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY
SHOULD BE A NEARLY CARBON COPY FORECAST EACH DAY...WITH ISOLATED
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FAR WESTERN DESERTS AND
SCATTERED TYPE POPS FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES. BY TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS
CONFINED TO MAINLY AREAS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND NEW
MEXICO BORDER. THEREAFTER...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AS A PACIFIC
TROUGH MOVES BY TO OUR NORTH.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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