Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 291601
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
900 AM MST FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A STRONG WARMING TREND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL EXCEED 100 DEGREES THIS
WEEKEND FOR TUCSON...SAFFORD AND THE LOWER DESERTS...WITH MID TO
UPPER 90S ELSEWHERE. A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR MAINLY NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE RULE INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER RIDGE AXIS ADJACENT THE WEST COAST THIS MORNING
WILL AMPLIFY AND MOVE EWD INTO THE SWRN CONUS THIS WEEKEND. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL
BRING SOME CLOUDINESS TODAY...ESPECIALLY NE OF TUCSON. THUS...
CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THRU TONIGHT.

SOME INCREASE IN LOWER AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL OCCUR MAINLY NEAR
THE NEW MEXICO BORDER SAT FOLLOWED BY A MORE PRONOUNCED MOISTURE
INCREASE ESPECIALLY EAST OF TUCSON SUN. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS SAT AFTERNOON/
EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY OCCUR FURTHER SWD ADJACENT THE NEW
MEXICO BORDER SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
SHOULD EXTEND FURTHER WWD SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING...PERHAPS AS FAR
WEST AS THE GALIURO/PINALENO MOUNTAINS IN GRAHAM COUNTY...AND
PERHAPS NEAR THE DRAGOON MOUNTAINS IN COCHISE COUNTY.

ANY RAINFALL WILL BE QUITE LIGHT...WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A TRACE
TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OR SO. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FROM
BRIEF STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS. THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA MON ALLOWING FOR SOME
INCREASE IN WLY FLOW ALOFT. THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS
MON AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY WLY/SWLY TUE-THUR IN
RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS. THERE WERE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS/CMC REGARDING THE AMPLIFICATION OF
THIS UPPER TROUGH...WITH THE ECMWF DEPICTING A CONSIDERABLY DEEPER
SOLUTION VERSUS THE GFS/CMC. AT ANY RATE...THIS PATTERN WILL
MAINTAIN A VERY DRY REGIME ACROSS SE ARIZONA.

ASIDE FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIP...THE MAIN
WEATHER THEME WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE INHERITED OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS THE FIRST 100
DEGREE TEMPERATURE FOR TUCSON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT SATURDAY
FOLLOWED BY HIGH TEMPS AT OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY.
HIGH TEMPS NEXT WED-THUR SHOULD LOWER CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES DUE TO
LOWER HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 30/18Z.
CLEAR SKIES TO SCATTERED CLOUDS ABOVE 20K FT AGL INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. SURFACE WIND THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING WILL BE
WLY/NWLY AT 10-15 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE WIND WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS ACTIVITY
WILL BE SUNDAY. THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY BE AS FAR WEST AS THE GALIURO/PINALENO
MOUNTAINS IN GRAHAM COUNTY...AND PERHAPS AS FAR WEST AS THE DRAGOON
MOUNTAINS IN COCHISE COUNTY. ANY RAINFALL WILL BE QUITE LIGHT...WITH
GENERALLY TRACE AMOUNTS TO ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH EXPECTED
TO OCCUR. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF
STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.
DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO MIDDLE TEENS. EXPECT NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH SOME GUSTINESS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS DUE TO STRONG DAYTIME HEATING. SOMEWHAT STRONGER
WINDS SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS WEST OF THE AREA.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS


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