Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 250355
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
855 PM MST FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING NEAR RECORD TO
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY. A COOLING TREND WILL THEN
OCCUR BY MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA.
THERE MAY BE A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THIS SYSTEM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AGAIN NEXT WEEK. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WARMING TO ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS BACK
ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR SKIES CONTINUED ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
EVENING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINED OVER THE REGION.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD BY SUNDAY AS
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ENTERS THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL BRING A DROP
IN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. CURRENT FORECAST
APPEARED TO HANDLE THESE TRENDS WELL...SO NO UPDATES NECESSARY THIS
EVENING. PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 25/06Z.
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS. CLEAR SKIES AND DIURNALLY TERRAIN
DRIVEN SURFACE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL RESULT
IN DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY.
DIURNALLY TERRAIN DRIVEN 20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 MPH
THROUGH SATURDAY. BREEZY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WINDS ARE LIKELY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES NORTH OF THE
AREA. DURING THAT TIME PERIOD...A SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER
THE HIGHER PEAKS NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE TROUGH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST ON
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...SOUTHWEST FLOW/WAA WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION AS A TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST. EXPECT
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN NEARLY UNCHANGED ON SATURDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN THE CONTINUATION OF NEAR RECORD OR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT 7-12
DEGREES F ABOVE NORMAL. FOR TUCSON...THE FORECAST HIGH OF 94 DEGREES
F ON SATURDAY WOULD TIE THE OLD RECORD SET IN 1990 AND 1959. EXPECT
A FEW OTHER STATIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO TIE/BREAK PREVIOUS
RECORDS DURING THIS UNSEASONABLY WARM PERIOD AS WELL.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN PUSH EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY...RESULTING IN A
COUPLE OF DEGREES OF COOLING SUNDAY AND MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING ON
MONDAY. WHILE THE MAIN MOISTURE/DYNAMIC FIELDS STAY WELL NORTH OF
THE STATE...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC NEAR 120W/25N WILL GET PULLED NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
STATE WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE. THIS FEATURE...IN COMBINATION WITH
SOME MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO
GENERATE A SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG NEW MEXICO
BORDER. IN COORDINATION WITH THE OTHER ARIZONA OFFICES...HAVE PUT IN
SLIGHT CHANCE (10%) POPS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY IN
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS...WITH LESSER VALUES IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH
OF THE WHITE`S ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.

DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED BEHIND
THE TROUGH PASSAGE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THE MODELS
THEN INDICATE ANOTHER STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC/SOUTHWEST US LATE NEXT WEEK FOR A RETURN TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

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