Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
FXUS65 KTWC 281555
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
855 AM MST Fri Oct 28 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Strong high pressure will result in dry conditions with
well above normal daytime temperatures through the weekend. A trough
through the western states should bring a moderate cooling trend
next week, with temperatures falling closer to seasonal averages by
the middle of the week.
.DISCUSSION...Water vapor imagery, 28/00Z upper-air plots and recent
model data shows the high now centered over the general vicinity of
eastern Chihuahua Mexico and west Texas, with the ridge axis
extending northeast across the Texas Panhandle and into the central
plains. Meanwhile, a shortwave trough is currently making its way
into north central California. IR imagery shows plenty of cloudiness
associated with this low over much of the western states. For
southeast Arizona this is mostly high level cirrus clouds, but some
scattered mid level clouds in the mix as well.
As of 15Z (8 AM MST), temperatures across the region ranged from the
lower 60s to the mid 70s for desert/valley locations. These readings
seem to be mostly on track with record or near record high temps in
some places, but will make some adjustments to the short term hourly
temp grids to reflect recent trends.
.AVIATION...Valid through 29/18Z.
VFR with BKN-OVC cirrus level clouds through the period and FEW-SCT
clouds at 8-12k ft agl. Surface wind generally ely/sely at 7-14
knots. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions will prevail into early next week.
Expect occasionally gusty east to southeast winds through this
evening. 20-foot winds will then be terrain driven generally 15 mph
or less into the middle to latter part of next week. A low pressure
system will begin to move into the Desert Southwest, bringing a
chance of showers mainly to the White Mountains late Tuesday into
.PREV DISCUSSION...Record to near record highs once again today under
plenty of mainly high level cloud cover. Some of this high level
moisture was pulled out of Seymour and out ahead of upper level low
approaching central CA.
Southwest flow aloft will continue into early next week with daytime
temperatures gradually cooling.
Next shot of precipitation will be around next Wednesday as an upper
level trof over the state increases moisture across the area. Made
some slight adjustments upward in PoPs to match surrounding offices.
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