Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 272108
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
208 PM MST WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A PRONOUNCED DRYING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. THIS
DRYING TREND WILL ALSO RESULT IN WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES...WITH
HIGHS AROUND THE CENTURY MARK IN WARMER LOCATIONS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW IS INCREASING OVER THE AREA
AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MIGRATES AWAY FROM THE AREA. MINOR
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO INITIATE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON. STORMS HAVE BEEN WELL BEHAVED THUS FAR...WITH
ONLY BRIEF RAINFALL. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES SOME STORMS MAY
MIGRATE AWAY FROM THE TERRAIN AND IMPACT VALLEY AREAS OVER
PORTIONS OF COCHISE COUNTY. DRY AIR INTRUSION WILL LIMIT STORM
POTENTIAL THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE AT BOTH THE SURFACE AND ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL USHER IN A PERIOD OF
DRY...STABLE...AND WARM WEATHER FOR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL CLIMB TOWARD THE CENTURY MARK IN WARMER LOCATIONS BY
THE WEEKEND. MID AND LONG RANGE MODELS ARE INDICATING A WEAK
INTRUSION OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 29/00Z.
AMDAR SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE
REGION WHICH IS RESULTING ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
BRIEF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
DRIFT EAST AS THEY DISSIPATE THROUGH 28/03Z...THEN SKIES CLEARING.
LOOKS AS THOUGH NONE OF THE TERMINALS WILL HAVE A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM THIS EVENING.  MOSTLY CLEAR THURSDAY.  SFC WINDS
VARIABLE TO 10 KTS...EXCEPT VICINITY OF TSRA WHERE GUSTS TO 35 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 28/03Z.  AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING THEN SKIES CLEARING.  DRYING WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH NO SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.  THE DRYING WILL ALSO RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER RH LEVELS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY.  EXPECT A LIGHT WESTERLY BREEZE EACH
AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
NEXT WEEK WILL SEE A MODERATION IN RH LEVELS AS MOISTURE TRIES
MOVING BACK ACROSS THE AREA.


&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CANTIN
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...CERNIGLIA

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON






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