Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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000
FXUS65 KVEF 022145
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
245 PM PDT TUE JUN 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS... DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH AFTERNOON BREEZES AND VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS. A
VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A RETURN OF COOLER AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION LATER THIS WEEK AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
&&

.DISCUSSION...

EXPECT MOSTLY DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, AS
WE AWAIT OUR NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE LOW IS PROJECTED TO DROP
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
THERE COULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND FORCING AS THE LOW APPROACHES TO
GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SIERRA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL TO BELOW
NORMAL VALUES AS WE PROGRESS FROM TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS LOW
WILL TAP INTO MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL SYSTEM ANDRES
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT, PUSHING THE PLUME OF MID AND UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ARIZONA THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, THE UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY PUSH
INLAND OVER GENERALLY THE GREATER LOS ANGELES AREA. THIS WILL CAUSE
SOME OF THE MOISTURE TO WRAP NORTHWEST INTO MOHAVE COUNTY AND
EVENTUALLY LINCOLN COUNTY. THE SIERRA SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. ELSEWHERE, THERE APPEARS TO BE A PRETTY GOOD DRY
SLOT WORKING ACROSS THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
CURRENTLY EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN CLARK COUNTY. GIVEN THIS DRY SLOT HAVE
DECREASED RAIN CHANCES FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AND INCREASED
TEMPERATURES FOR SOME OF THE DESERTS. DID BUMP UP TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES, INCLUDING LAS VEGAS, YET OVERALL TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WHILE I DID DECREASE RAIN CHANCES FOR
LOWER ELEVATIONS, HAVE LEFT SOME SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE TERRAIN
AREAS. NOT ENTIRELY SOLD SAN BERNARDINO OR CLARK MOUNTAINS WILL SEE
ANYTHING, BUT WANTED TO SHOW A TREND DOWN FROM WHAT WE WERE
ADVERTISING. SO, THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS MOHAVE AND LINCOLN
COUNTIES, ALONG WITH THE SIERRA AND WHITE MOUNTAINS IN CALIFORNIA.
IF THE DRY SLOT EXPANDS IN LATER MODEL RUNS, CHANCES WILL DECREASE
ACROSS THE BOARD. IF THE UPPER LOW TRENDS MORE WEST THAN IT IS
CURRENTLY SHOWING, RAIN CHANCES WOULD INCREASE, BUT FOR NOW I WILL
CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH THE ENSEMBLES, ECMWF, AND LATEST TRENDS IN THE
GFS. RAIN AMOUNTS ARE NOT LOOKING TOO IMPRESSIVE AT THIS TIME, AS
THE MAIN MOISTURE PUSH IS WELL EAST OF OUR AREA. SOME ISOLATED AREA
COULD PICK UP A QUARTER OF INCH OR SO.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, THE UPPER LOW IS PROJECTED TO SLIDE
NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA, GENERALLY CENTERED NORTHWEST OF LAS
VEGAS. WITH THE UPPER LOW/"COLD" POOL PRETTY MUCH OVERHEAD, CANNOT
RULE OUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA, BUT THE
TERRAIN WOULD BE THE FAVORED AREAS. HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS IN
NORTHERN MOHAVE, LINCOLN, NYE, ESMERALDA, AND INYO COUNTIES. MODELS
INDICATE THE SPRING MOUNTAINS AND SHEEP RANGE COULD SEE SOME
DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE OVERALL FLOW IT WILL PROBABLY BE DIFFICULT TO
GET ANYTHING TO PROPAGATE INTO THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY, BUT OUTFLOW
COULD FORCE NEW DEVELOPMENT, SO HAVE CONTINUED A SLIGHT CHANCE IN
THE VALLEY. ONCE AGAIN, RAIN AMOUNTS ARE NOT LOOKING THAT IMPRESSIVE
WITH THE MAIN MOISTURE PLUME WELL EAST OF US.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT, THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO SHEAR OUT
ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA. AREA-WIDE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
GREATLY DIMINISH WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
INYO, ESMERALDA, NYE, LINCOLN, AND NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO WARM SEVERAL DEGREES FROM SATURDAY.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY, THE UNCERTAINTY IS MUCH GREATER. MODELS ARE
HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE NEXT TROPICAL
SYSTEM, BLANCA. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A WEAK UPPER
LOW WELL OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST, BUT DIFFER ON TIMING AND LOCATION
OF BLANCA BEING PULLED NORTHWARD. THE GFS IS FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE,
PULLING THE MOISTURE PLUME ACROSS ARIZONA ONCE AGAIN. WITH THE LOW
OFF THE COAST, IT COULD PULL SOME OF THAT MOISTURE WESTWARD INTO OUR
AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IS DELAYED BY 24
HOURS OR SO, WITH MUCH LESS COVERAGE AND QPF ACROSS OUR AREA. FOR
NOW, HAVE JUST SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF MOHAVE,
LINCOLN, NYE, ESMERALDA, AND INYO COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
AND ADJUST AS MODELS COME IN TO BETTER AGREEMENT.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN 10-15
KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 22 KTS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATER TONIGHT. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL PICK UP AGAIN WEDNESDAY, WITH GUSTS AGAIN TO AROUND 20 KTS
POSSIBLE. A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT MOST TAF SITES WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS RANGING FROM 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS 20-25KT THROUGH
THIS EVENING. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN WEDNESDAY, SIMILAR
TO TODAY. KBIH WILL EXPERIENCE MORE OF A DIURNAL WIND PATTERN
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. OTHER AREAS WILL SEE
A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...PADDOCK
AVIATION.....STACHELSKI

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