Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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000
FXUS65 KVEF 200510
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1009 PM PDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ANY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER ARIZONA WILL COME TO AN END EARLY THIS EVENING. AFTER
A WARM UP SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A STORM SYSTEM WILL USHER IN STRONG
WINDS TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 4-8 KTS ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AROUND 15Z SUNDAY. WINDS
MAY HAVE AN EASTERLY COMPONENT AT TIMES LATE SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON.
FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA 25K FEET OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY WITH A FEW
CLOUDS AS LOW AS 15K FEET DURING THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...WINDS SHOULD FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONAL TRENDS
OVERNIGHT AT 10 KTS OR LESS. ON SUNDAY WINDS SHOULD BE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FEW-SCT CLOUDS
AOA 25K FEET OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY WITH A FEW CLOUDS AS LOW
AS 15K FEET DURING THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY.
&&

.PREVIOUS UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 540 PM PDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS OVER MOHAVE COUNTY SHOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE EXTENSIVE COMPARED TO WHAT THE
GRIDS HAVE IN THEM FOR THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION, SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A NICE CUMULUS LINE HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS ESMERALDA COUNTY AND
THERE WERE SOME RETURNS BEING PICKED UP BY THE WSR-88D OUT OF RENO.
GIVEN THIS AND THE FACT THAT THE HRRR SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS
ACTIVITY TO KEEP GOING AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS ESMERALDA AND
CENTRAL NYE COUNTIES, I HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO ADD IN SHOWERS FOR
THIS EVENING IN THOSE AREAS. EVERYTHING ELSE LOOKS OK FOR NOW.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 137 PM PDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...LOW TOPPED CONVECTION OVER
SOUTHERN NEVADA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA HAS BEEN ANCHORED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. CUMULUS FIELD IS MORE WIDESPREAD OVER MOHAVE COUNTY
WITH RADAR DETECTING LIGHT SHOWERS EAST OF A LINE FROM MEADVIEW TO
KINGMAN. FOR THE EARLY EVENING HOURS TRIMMED BACK POPS FURTHER
ESPECIALLY FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN NEVADA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AS IT LOOKS LIKE NO SHOWERS WILL GET GOING THIS
AFTERNOON. A LIGHT SHOWER IS POSSIBLE IN MOHAVE COUNTY INTO THE
EARLY EVENING THEN SKIES WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT.

THE TROUGH OVER ARIZONA CONTINUES EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
SUNDAY WITH FLAT RIDGE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND MOJAVE DESERT.
JUST ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL BE LEFT IN FAR NORTHEAST MOHAVE
AND LINCOLN COUNTY FOR A LIGHT SHOWER OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
UNDER SUNNY SKIES. RIDGE AXIS SHIFT EAST INTO THE ROCKIES MONDAY AS
TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST DEEPENS. WILL BE BREEZY MOST AREAS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AND TEMPERATURES WARM
ABOUT ANOTHER 5 DEGREES FROM SUNDAY. RIDGETOP WINDS ALONG THE EAST
SIERRA SLOPES WILL REALLY START TO HOWL MONDAY NIGHT AS TROUGH MOVES
ONTO THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE DETAILS OF INCOMING PACIFIC TROUGH FOR
TUESDAY. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD WINDY CONDITIONS TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
DOWNSLOPE REGIONS OF THE SIERRA AND SPRING MOUNTAINS. WIDESPREAD
ADVISORY (GUSTS OVER 40 MPH) LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE TO BE ADVERTISED
IN THE FORECAST PACKAGE...ALONG WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST.  PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON THE OTHER HAND LOOK LESS AND
LESS PROMISING WITH JUST THE SIERRA AND NORTHERN MOUNTAIN ZONES
HAVING ANY CHANCE AT ALL FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY...ELSEWHERE JUST DRY
AND WINDY.

SPEAKING OF DRY AND WINDY...THE COMBINED FORCES WILL LEAD TO A
PERIOD OF ENHANCED FIRE DANGER THANKS TO THE GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. THE AREAS OF SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST
ARIZONA BELOW 6000 FEET WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY CANDIDATES FOR
CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS. IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.

ON WEDNESDAY A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS WHICH WILL LINGER
THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES
RUNNING NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES. THEREAFTER MODELS SEEM TO BE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE IDEA OF DEVELOPING A RATHER DEEP TROUGH ALONG THE
WEST COAST FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO A RETURN OF WINDY
CONDITIONS...INCREASED CLOUD COVER...AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
AT LEAST IN THE MOUNTAIN ZONES.
&&

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...STACHELSKI
PREVIOUS...PIERCE/OUTER

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