Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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000
FXUS65 KVEF 262305
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
305 PM PST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ANOTHER WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTH INTO
CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA FRIDAY AND LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS, SCATTERED RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS, AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. A SECOND STORM SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE AREA FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY KEEPING CONDITIONS
UNSETTLED THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...

NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. ACROSS INYO
COUNTY AND CENTRAL NEVADA THESE WINDS ARE GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH. THAT
SHOULD REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE WINDS SUBSIDE
OVERNIGHT AND TURN TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. VARIABLE UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS ALSO
EXPECTED OVER THIS PERIOD.

.SHORT TERM [TOMORROW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT]...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DIG SOUTH OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
FRIDAY AND CARVE OUT A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. GUSTY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LOW AND AFFECT PORTIONS
OF THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT ALONG WITH THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE DOWNSLOPE WIND
POTENTIAL IN THE SIERRA LOOKS TO DEVELOP EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
THEN PEAK LATE IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING FRIDAY EVENING.
THE GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN SPREAD EAST DURING
THE DAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. MOST AREAS ACROSS SAN
BERNARDINO...SOUTHERN CLARK AND MOHAVE COUNTIES WILL SEE GUSTY WINDS
IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY AND THE CURRENT WIND
ADVISORIES LOOK GOOD. THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED WIND GUSTS OVER
40 MPH ACROSS MOHAVE AND SOUTHERN CLARK COUNTIES...BUT AT THIS TIME
THE HIGHER WINDS DO NOT LOOK WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR ADDITIONAL
ADVISORIES.

AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTH PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO START
SPREADING INTO CENTRAL NEVADA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT MODEL
RUNS SEEM A BIT SLOWER WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION IN THE CWA
AND DID BACK OFF A BIT WITH POPS UNTIL LATER AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN
MOHAVE AND LINCOLN COUNTIES WITH SNOW LEVELS INITIALLY AROUND
6000-7000 FEET. DURING THE DAY SATURDAY THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DROP SOUTH AND WILL BE NEAR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR
ESMERALDA...CENTRAL NYE...LINCOLN AND MOHAVE COUNTIES. OTHER AREAS
WILL JUST SEE SLIGHT CHANCES WITH MAINLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
SEEING THE BETTER CHANCES. SNOW LEVELS WILL ALSO DROP SATURDAY
AFTERNOON TO AROUND 5000-6000 FEET. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THE LOW WILL
BE LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE THE OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...BUT
AGAIN MOST LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA...PRIMARILY NORTH OF LAS
VEGAS AND ACROSS NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY. SNOW LEVELS ON SUNDAY
SHOULD ALSO BE A BIT LOWER WITH LEVELS AROUND 4500-5000 FEET. AT
THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE
ACROSS LINCOLN AND NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTIES WITH JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
FRIDAY...BUT WILL DROP TO BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

.LONG TERM [MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BEGIN TO LIFT EASTWARD MONDAY WITH THE PRIMARY
PRECIPITATION AXIS BECOMING FOCUSED TO NORTHERN ARIZONA WITH DRYING
PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST. THERE MAY STILL BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT
OVERALL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SLOWLY IMPROVING.

AS QUICKLY AS THAT SYSTEM MOVES OUT MONDAY NIGHT ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
FOLLOWS RIGHT ON ITS HEELS. THIS SECONDARY DISTURBANCE HAD TRENDED
FURTHER EAST OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND MAY NOT HAVE AS MUCH OF AN
IMPACT AS IT WOULD HAVE IF IT HAD TAKEN A MORE WESTERLY TRAJECTORY.
BUT NONETHELESS...A RENEWED SHOT OF COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING 5 TO
10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR EARLY MARCH. MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WILL BE
FAVORED ESPECIALLY ACROSS MOHAVE AND LINCOLN COUNTIES WITH SNOW
LEVELS HOVERING AROUND THE 4000 FOOT LEVEL. BY THURSDAY HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING LOOKS TO SET UP ALONG THE WEST COAST PROMISING A
RETURN OF MILDER TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...DIURNAL WIND TRENDS WILL CONTINUE AS
THE CURRENT SOUTHEAST WINDS GIVE WAY TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-8KTS AT
AROUND 02 UTC. VARIABLE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE TERMINAL AOA
25 KFT THROUGH TONIGHT.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN
COUNTIES IN OUR AREA...WITH GUSTY WINDS TO 30 KTS AFFECTING THE
OWENS VALLEY...DEATH VALLEY AND CENTERAL NEVADA. OTHER AREAS WILL SEE
NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WITH VARIABLE CLOUDS OVER ALL
TERMINALS AOA 25 KFT.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM/AVIATION: LERICOS
SHORT TERM: GORELOW
LONG TERM: OUTLER

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS
ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER






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