Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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510
FXUS65 KVEF 042212
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
312 PM PDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL BRING GUSTY
WINDS ONCE AGAIN TO PARTS OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY. MOISTURE
INCREASES THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY.

GUSTY WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED IN NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA, WITH
WIDESPREAD GUSTS IN THE 30S SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN TOMORROW ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA (MOHAVE
AND LINCOLN COUNTIES). WIND ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON TIME...WITH NO CHANGES MADE TO THE ADVISORY FOR
LINCOLN AND MOHAVE COUNTIES TOMORROW.

AS THE LOW COMES ONSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT, MOISTURE SHOULD BE ON THE
INCREASE. A JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL BE
NOSING UP THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY..PROVIDING LIFT AND SHEAR FROM
ABOUT THE MOJAVE PRESERVE NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NYE COUNTY. LIFTED
INDEX VALUES OF AROUND -3C WILL SUPPORT THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT FOR THAT REGION. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE ENTERING THE WESTERN CWA WITH PLENTY OF
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOHAVE CLARK AND LINCOLN
COUNTIES. LIFTED INDEX VALUES OF -3C TO -5C AND BULK SHEAR AROUND 30
KNOTS...EXPECT PLENTY OF THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL..ESPECIALLY NEAR ANY
MID-LEVEL DRYING OR SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE LARGE UPPER
LEVEL LOW. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY TRAVERSES THE AREA...WITH MORE
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES KEEPING AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTER SHOWERS IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY.


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
WE SHOULD START TO EXPERIENCE A SLIGHT DRYING TREND FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY AND EVEN MORE SO ON MONDAY, AS THE
UPPER LOW SLIDES FROM SOUTHERN UTAH TO NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AND
UPPER RIDGING ARRIVES FROM THE WEST. EVEN THOUGH LOWER-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY REMAIN ACROSS SOME AREAS TUESDAY AND PERHAPS
INTO WEDNESDAY, SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH WARMING ALOFT TO CAP ANY
CONVECTION. THE TEMPERATURE ROLLER COASTER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD, AS WE GO FROM 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY TO ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY IF NOT TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SOME
AS WINDS TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS UP TO 25KTS THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED. ON FRIDAY...AN APPROACHING STORM
SYSTEM WILL BRING RAINSHOWERS AND LOWER CEILINGS TO THE TERMINAL
AREA. THIS HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF CAUSING DELAYS DURING HIGH TRAFFIC
PERIODS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW MORE FREQUENT GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH CLOUDS ON THURSDAY
WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO LOWER CLOUDS AND POSSIBILITY OF
RAINSHOWERS ON FRIDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND. SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...STEELE
LONG TERM....SHAFER
AVIATION....LERICOS

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