Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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FXUS65 KVEF 301023
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
223 AM PST FRI JAN 30 2015

SYNOPSIS...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALLOW RAIN AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW TO SPREAD NORTH ACROSS MUCH OF THE MOJAVE DESERT AND
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN TODAY INTO TONIGHT. FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT IN AREAS THAT SEE PRECIPITATION TODAY. PRECIPITATION WILL
TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES
AWAY TO THE SOUTHEAST. DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS
OF FEBRUARY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. AT THIS POINT OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT A TRACE TO A TENTH OF AN INCH HAS FALLEN OVER PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...NOT MUCH MORE THAN A TRACE HAS FALLEN OVER
FAR SOUTHERN NEVADA WHILE A TENTH TO AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH HAS
FALLEN OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY. PRECIPITATION THAT
HAS FALLEN UP TO THIS POINT HAS NOT BEEN WELL DEPICTED BY MOST
GUIDANCE. THIS...COMBINED WITH INTER-MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE
DEPICTIONS OF RAIN BANDS TODAY INTO TONIGHT RESULTS IN LOWER THAN
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF RAIN BANDS THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING.

IN ANY CASE...RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW (SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO AROUND
7000 FEET BY THIS EVENING) IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AS A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRAWS
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND WEAKER WITH
WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA TONIGHT...AND AS A RESULT FOG WILL
HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF A DEVELOPING. HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF AREAS
OF FOG INTO THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT FOR THE LOWER ELEVATION AREAS
THAT WILL MOST LIKELY RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT RAIN TODAY. PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE ISOLATED AND SHOWERY BY SATURDAY MORNING
BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WOBBLES BACK SOUTHEAST INTO MEXICO.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREA WIDE BY SATURDAY EVENING AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES INTO THE WEST COAST. WINDS NOW APPEAR TO BE
A BIT STRONGER SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THUS CHANCES OF ADDITIONAL
PATCHY FOG IS A BIT LOWER BUT STILL NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. FOR NOW
WILL HOLD OFF ON INTRODUCING FOG INTO THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT. OTHERWISE EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES AND OCCASIONAL HIGH
CLOUDS SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

BROAD/FLAT RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC/GREAT BASIN MONDAY IS
PROGGED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BY LATE WEEK. THE
AMPLIFICATION IS IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING TROUGH ALONG 140W BY
THURSDAY. AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TOP THE RIDGE LOOK
FOR PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. PASSING DISTURBANCES COULD ALSO
ENHANCE RIDGETOP WINDS NEAR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA CREST AT TIMES,
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS EXPECTED. RIDGING WILL LEAD TO MILD
TEMPERATURES WITH MOST MOJAVE DESERT LOCALES WARMING INTO THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP THIS
MORNING WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING AROUND SUNRISE. CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP TO AT LEAST 2500-3000 FEET BY LATE MORNING. LOWER
CIGS UNDER 2000 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS.
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT TODAY...GENERALLY UNDER 8 KTS. MODELS
HAVE BEGUN TO INDICATE SLIGHTLY WEAKER WINDS TONIGHT...THIS CLOUD
LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG IN THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. IMPROVING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED
ON SATURDAY...BUT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS COULD CAUSE RUNWAY
CONFIGURATION ISSUES. MUCH BETTER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM
SUNDAY ONWARD.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION THIS MORNING AS RAIN SPREADS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. LOW
CEILINGS...POOR VISIBILITY...AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL ALL BE
ISSUES TODAY AND TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND AGAIN
SATURDAY NIGHT MORNING IN AREAS WHICH RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT RAIN TODAY.
OTHERWISE...MUCH BETTER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY ONWARD.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN
OR SNOW.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WOLCOTT
LONG TERM.............PIERCE

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