Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS28 KWNS 212107
FWDD38

DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0406 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

VALID 231200Z - 291200Z

A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ASHORE FROM THE E PACIFIC
EARLY THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND BEFORE MOVING EWD INTO NEXT WEEK. A BAND
OF ENHANCED DEEP-LAYER FLOW SURROUNDING AND PRECEDING THE TROUGH
WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE WRN STATES LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND...RESULTING IN AREAS OF STRONG SFC WINDS. SOME FIRE-WEATHER
RISK COULD ENSUE WHERE DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS BOLSTER BOUNDARY-LAYER
WARMING/DRYING. THIS WOULD BE OF GREATEST CONCERN FROM PORTIONS OF
THE CNTRL GREAT BASIN TO WY FOR D4/FRI AND D5/SAT...AND ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS FOR D6/SUN. HOWEVER...DIFFERENCES
AMONGST MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH AND
RELATED STRONG-SFC-WIND POTENTIAL...AND REGARDING THE DEGREE OF
BOUNDARY-LAYER DRYING...YIELD LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER RISK SUCH THAT PROBABILISTIC DELINEATIONS HAVE NOT BEEN
INCLUDED AT THIS TIME.

ALSO OF NOTE...DRY SFC CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
INTERIOR SRN CA INCLUDING THE COASTAL RANGES/ADJACENT FOOTHILLS
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE D3/THU-D8/TUE PERIOD. IN GENERAL...WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT...MITIGATING THE FIRE-WEATHER POTENTIAL.
HOWEVER...RELATIVELY INCREASED SFC WINDS MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE SRN-CA
COASTAL RANGES/ADJACENT FOOTHILLS FOR D6/SUN AND D7/MON IN RESPONSE
TO A RELATIVELY TIGHTER SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT SURROUNDING SFC
RIDGING OVER THE CNTRL GREAT BASIN. REGARDLESS...DIFFERENCES AMONGST
MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE MAGNITUDE OF THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND RESULTANT STRONG-WIND POTENTIAL LIMIT CONFIDENCE IN THE
FIRE-WEATHER RISK. FURTHERMORE...MANY MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE THAT
THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ASSOCIATED WINDS WILL REMAIN LIMITED
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR THESE REASONS...PROBABILISTIC DELINEATIONS
HAVE NOT BEEN INCLUDED AT THIS TIME.

..COHEN.. 10/21/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...




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