Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS28 KWNS 182141

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0341 PM CST Wed Jan 18 2017

Valid 201200Z - 261200Z

The synoptic pattern at the beginning of the forecast period will
feature a large-scale trough over the Western U.S. and a powerful
(120 kt) mid-level jet emanating from the eastern Pacific into Baja
California.  With time, this jet will migrate inland across the
southern tier of the Lower 48 and a strong shortwave trough will
deepen and move quickly toward the Deep South on D6/Mon.  Upstream,
a larger scale trough will remain nearly stationary just west of the
West Coast, with strong flow continuing across the southern tier of
the U.S.

...D4/Sat through D8/Wed Jan 25 - Parts of New Mexico and Texas...
The main surface feature of interest for this forecast will be
periods of strong downslope flow over region in response to areas of
substantial low-level cyclogenesis in the lee of the central
Rockies/Plains.  With time, this dry flow regime will gradually
dry/cure fuels that have recently received copious amounts of
rainfall (particularly in parts of western and central Texas).
Parts of south Texas have received less rain compared to areas
farther north, and dry fuels along with continued dry conditions
will result in period of elevated to critical fire weather.
40%/elevated fire weather areas continue for this area on D4/Sat and
D5/Sun, where westerly/northwesterly low-level flow and
near-critical afternoon RH will exist.

Farther north, a 40%/elevated fire weather area has been introduced
in eastern New Mexico and portions of west Texas, where models
indicate near-critical RH and 20-40 mph west-southwesterly surface
flow developing south of a rapidly deepening surface low in the
general vicinity of Colorado.  By that time, the expectation is that
multiple days of dry, windy conditions will cure fuels enough to
support elevated to critical fire weather conditions.

Beyond D6/Mon, predictability becomes very low as models diverge on
handling of the western upper trough and associated surface

..Cook.. 01/18/2017

...Please see for graphic product...

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