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FNUS28 KWNS 312031
FWDD38

DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0330 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

VALID 021200Z - 081200Z

FROM D3/THU INTO D5/SAT...AMPLIFICATION OF THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN
ACROSS THE CONUS IS EXPECTED...WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER MUCH OF THE
WRN CONUS...AND A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL/ERN CONUS. AN
UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH THE W COAST AROUND D5/SAT...WITH THE
CONSENSUS OF DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING IT WILL
UNDERCUT THE WRN CONUS UPPER RIDGE AS IT MOVES EWD ACROSS CA AND
PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN FROM D6/SUN INTO D8/TUE.

...D6/SUN - D8/TUE: PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN AND SOUTHWEST...
AS THE UPPER LOW DISCUSSED ABOVE MOVES ACROSS CA AND THE WRN GREAT
BASIN LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...AN INCREASE IN LOW TO MID-LEVEL
WINDS SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN AND SOUTHWEST
FROM D6/SUN INTO D7/MON. ENOUGH AGREEMENT NOW EXISTS AMONGST MODEL
GUIDANCE IN THE PLACEMENT AND AMPLITUDE OF THIS FEATURE THROUGH
D7/MON TO INTRODUCE 40 PERCENT/MARGINAL PROBABILITIES FOR BOTH
D6/SUN AND D7/MON.

THE UPPER LOW SHOULD BE LOCATED NEAR/JUST OFF THE CNTRL CA COAST BY
SUN MORNING...MOVING SLOWLY EWD ACROSS INTERIOR CNTRL CA THROUGH MON
MORNING. A MID-LEVEL SPEED MAXIMUM IS FORECAST TO ROTATE AROUND THE
BASE OF THE UPPER LOW ACROSS PARTS OF SRN CA INTO SRN NV AND PERHAPS
THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY/WRN AZ BY SUN EVENING. STRONG/GUSTY LOW
LEVEL WINDS MAY COMBINE WITH CRITICALLY LOWERED RH VALUES SUN
AFTERNOON...AND ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO EXISTS TO INCLUDE
40 PERCENT/MARGINAL PROBABILITIES FOR PARTS OF SRN NV AND THE LOWER
CO RIVER VALLEY/ADJACENT PORTIONS OF WRN AZ. THIS REGION WILL
EXPERIENCE MULTIPLE DAYS OF WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
UNDERNEATH THE WRN CONUS UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND PRIOR TO
THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER LOW. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FUELS SHOULD
BE RECEPTIVE TO FIRE STARTS ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS OUTLINED BY THE 40
PERCENT/MARGINAL AREA ON D6/SUN.

FOR D7/MON...THE UPPER LOW SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE WRN GREAT
BASIN...WITH ENHANCED MID-LEVEL WINDS OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE SRN
GREAT BASIN AND SOUTHWEST. A RELATED INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL WINDS
SHOULD OCCUR MON AFTERNOON ACROSS THIS SAME GENERAL AREA. RH VALUES
WILL VERY LIKELY FALL BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS...AND A 40
PERCENT/MARGINAL AREA HAS BEEN INTRODUCED FOR THIS REGION WHERE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FUELS SHOULD BE RECEPTIVE TO FIRE STARTS. AN
UPGRADE TO 70 PERCENT/LIKELY CRITICAL PROBABILITIES MAY BE NEEDED
FOR D7/MON IN A FUTURE UPDATE IF CURRENT MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.

BY D8/TUE...TOO MUCH MODEL DISPARITY EXISTS WITH REGARD TO THE
LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE WRN CONUS TO
DELINEATE A 40 PERCENT/MARGINAL AREA. HOWEVER...ONE MAY EVENTUALLY
BE NEEDED ACROSS SOME PORTION OF THE GREAT BASIN/SOUTHWEST AS MODEL
AGREEMENT INCREASES.

..GLEASON.. 05/31/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

$$



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