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000
FNUS28 KWNS 262140
FWDD38

DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0340 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

VALID 281200Z - 061200Z

THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BECOME
CHARACTERIZED BY WRN-CONUS TROUGHING AND SERN-CONUS RIDGING FOR THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY/MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. ONE TROUGH WILL
AMPLIFY ALONG THE WEST-COAST VICINITY THIS WEEKEND BEFORE EJECTING
EWD NEXT WEEK...WITH THE WRN-CONUS TROUGHING BEING REINFORCED BY
ANOTHER PERTURBATION DIGGING OVER THE WRN STATES FOR EARLY TO MIDDLE
PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. SOME MEDIUM-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
THE WRN-CONUS MEAN TROUGH MAY PROGRESS EWD DURING THE LATTER HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. UNTIL THEN...PERSISTENT SWLY TO WLY FLOW AND RELATED
DOWNSLOPE TRAJECTORIES WILL ENCOURAGE AREAS OF WARMING/DRYING FROM
PARTS OF SRN CA EWD TOWARD PORTIONS OF TX...ESPECIALLY IN PROXIMITY
TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. OCCASIONALLY BREEZY WINDS WILL OCCUR IN
COMBINATION WITH THIS DRYING -- ENHANCED DIURNALLY -- ESPECIALLY FOR
D4/SUN THROUGH D7/WED AS PERIODICALLY EJECTING PERTURBATIONS FROM
THE WRN CONUS ENCOURAGE SFC CYCLOGENESIS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.
HOWEVER...DISPARITIES AMONGST MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE
EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN DETRACT CONFIDENCE IN ANY
ENHANCED FIRE-WEATHER RISK. ANTECEDENT PRECIPITATION AND AREAS OF
MOIST FUELS COULD ALSO LIMIT THE FIRE-WEATHER RISK...ALONG WITH THE
ABSENCE OF ESPECIALLY SUBSTANTIAL BOUNDARY-LAYER WARMING.

..COHEN.. 02/26/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...




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