Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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000
FNUS22 KWNS 230757
FWDDY2

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0257 AM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...PORTIONS OF
WEST AND NORTH TEXAS...SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...

...Synopsis...
A strong deep-layer cyclone over the central High Plains on Friday
morning is expected to weaken somewhat as it moves slowly eastward
through the period. A dryline associated with the cyclone will move
into portions of central OK/north-central TX during the afternoon,
as a trailing cold front sweeps through portions of New Mexico and
West Texas. Critical conditions are possible in the wake of the
dryline and cold front.

...New Mexico/West Texas into the central/southern Plains...
While some cooling is expected on Friday, critical conditions are
expected to develop within the dry and windy post-frontal regime
from southeast New Mexico into portions of West Texas. Sustained
westerly winds of 20-25 MPH are expected in this area, while RH
values will fall into the 10-20% range.

Further northeast into portions of north Texas, Oklahoma, and
southern Kansas, a corridor of elevated to potentially critical
conditions is expected Friday afternoon immediately behind the
dryline and ahead of the cold front. The best chance of critical
conditions in this regime appears to be from western north TX into
southwest/central OK, where southwesterly winds of 20-30 MPH will
combine with minimum RH values of 10-20%. Considerable uncertainty
remains regarding the northward and eastward extent of the critical
threat, but at least elevated conditions are possible into portions
of eastern OK and south-central KS.

While some antecedent rainfall is possible over portions of the
elevated and critical areas, at this time the probability of wetting
rainfall appears rather low.

..Dean.. 03/23/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$


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