Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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000
FNUS22 KWNS 220757
FWDDY2

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE TX/OK
PANHANDLES...TX SOUTH PLAINS...AND EASTERN NM...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR LOCATIONS SURROUNDING THE
EXTREMELY CRITICAL AREA...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
CO...SOUTHWEST KS...WESTERN OK...WEST TX...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL/EASTERN
NM...AND SOUTHEAST AZ...

...Synopsis...
An extensive zone of broadly cyclonic and strong midlevel flow will
overlie the Southwest and South-Central States, which will be
reinforced by multiple shortwave impulses advancing through the
flow. A surface cyclone is forecast to deepen on its track along a
frontal zone from eastern CO to KS, before it advances to the middle
Mississippi Valley. A dryline extending south of the cyclone will
sharpen and move eastward over parts of the Great Plains. A cold
front trailing to the west/southwest of the low will spread
southeastward across parts of the Plains during the evening and
overnight hours. Deep vertical mixing into the strong flow aloft
west of the dryline and south of the front, along with ample
downslope-flow-enhanced warming/drying, will greatly increase
fire-weather potential across portions of the Southwest States to
the central and southern Great Plains.

...Portions of the Southwest States to the central and southern
Great Plains...
Across the Extremely Critical area, west-southwesterly to westerly
winds of 30-35 mph are forecast to combine with RH of 8-10 percent
during the afternoon as temperatures rise into the upper 60s to the
70s. These very strong downslope winds will support the very low RH
given the dry antecedent upstream air mass over the southern Rockies
(observed precipitable water around 0.25 inch), and especially given
poor RH recovery Wednesday night. Critical conditions could develop
by late morning on Thursday, before extremely critical conditions
develop during the afternoon. The presence of very dry fuels further
supports the Extremely Critical designation.

Across the surrounding Critical area, southwesterly to westerly
winds of 20-30 mph are forecast to combine with RH of 10-15 percent
(except 15-20 percent across far eastern parts of the Critical
area).

Within the surrounding Elevated area, elevated to borderline-
critical fire-weather conditions are expected. However, critical
fire-weather conditions are not expected to occur on any more than a
brief/spotty basis.

Across portions of the central/southern Plains, a wind shift to
northwesterly is forecast to occur in association with the passage
of the cold front during the evening and overnight hours, which
could re-direct any ongoing fires.

Uncertainty regarding the eventual positions of the aforementioned
dryline and front attendant to the surface cyclone extend to the
northern and eastern bounds of, especially, the Critical area. The
progressive wave pattern aloft should tend to be associated with an
overall eastward advance of the dryline, though adjustments to areal
delineations of fire-weather highlights may be necessary in
subsequent outlooks.

..Cohen.. 02/22/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$


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