Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS22 KWNS 221956

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0256 PM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z


...Portions of southeastern Montana to northwest Kansas and
The Day 2/Monday Elevated fire weather area has been expanded
farther southeast into portions of western Nebraska, far northeast
Colorado, and northwest Kansas. The extension was made to account
for the latest fuel guidance, which indicates increasingly receptive
fuels across these areas (mainly fine fuels). This is especially
true across northwest Kansas and far southwest Nebraska, where AHPS
data suggests little meaningful precipitation over the last 14 days.
Otherwise, similar meteorological conditions are expected across the
entire Elevated area. See previous discussion below for information
on the expected meteorological conditions.

...Southern California...
Forecast of Elevated/Critical conditions is on track across this
area. Thus, no changes to the ongoing forecast are needed. See
previous discussion below for more information on tomorrow`s fire
weather threat over southern California.

..Elliott.. 10/22/2017

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0226 AM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017/

Expansive high pressure will persist across the Intermountain West,
with a 1041mb high centered over Idaho late in the forecast period.
To the east of this anticyclone, a strong surface low near the Great
Lakes will set up a favorable surface pressure gradient for gusty
winds in portions of the northern and central Plains.  Southwest of
the high, a persistent "offshore" pressure gradient will foster
gusty winds and heightened fire weather concerns in portions of
southern California.

...Coastal Ranges of southern California...
The overall fire weather scenario will change very little compared
to previous days.  The aforementioned surface pressure gradient
across the area will support widespread 15-25 mph surface winds,
with gusts exceeding 40 mph especially near terrain-favored areas.
Hot surface temperatures will occur during peak-heating hours, with
90s to near 100F expected amidst 7-12% surface RH values.
Widespread elevated to critical fire weather conditions are likely,
with at least elevated conditions persisting well into the overnight
hours due to continued gusty winds and poor recovery.

...Portions of the High Plains from southeastern Montana to western
Although surface temperatures will be relatively cool during
peak-heating hours (50s F), 25-35 mph northwesterly flow (with
higher gusts) will develop during the afternoon in response to the
aforementioned surface pressure gradient across the region.  RH
values will remain mostly above critical thresholds and range from
22-28%.  These conditions are consistent with elevated fire weather
criteria and an attendant delineation has been made.

...Please see for graphic product...

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