Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXUS01 KWBC 260758
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
357 AM EDT WED JUL 26 2017

VALID 12Z WED JUL 26 2017 - 12Z FRI JUL 28 2017

...SEVERE WEATHER/FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC...

...POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING ACROSS AREAS OF THE FOUR CORNERS
INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...

...HEAT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT TODAY ACROSS EASTERN
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA/KANSAS INTO THE OZARKS...


THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN ACROSS THE COUNTRY KEEPS AN UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. WHICH WILL KEEP THE REGION HOT AND
FOR THE MOST PART DRY. TO THE NORTH, A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL
BE FOCI FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH THE THREAT
MOVING FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC
DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THIS REGION CAN EXPECT BOUTS OF
SEVERE WEATHER AS WELL AS THE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING, PARTICULARLY IN LOCATIONS WHICH HAVE SEEN RECENT HEAVY
RAINS. CONSIDERING PRECIPITATION THE LAST 7 DAYS, THE MOST PRONE
LOCATIONS WOULD BE AROUND THE TRI-STATE AREA BOUNDING
IOWA/ILLINOIS/WISCONSIN. THE LATEST FORECAST SEEMS TO KEEP THE
BETTER ACTION TO THE SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA/NORTHERN
MISSOURI/CENTRAL ILLINOIS WHERE 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION TO THE DAILY RAINFALL THREATS, THE
ACCOMPANYING FRONTAL ZONE AND ENHANCED CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.

WITH THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS,
CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND THIS CIRCULATION WILL  STEER ABUNDANT
MONSOONAL MOISTURE OUT OF THE SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. THIS SHOULD TAKE AIM AT THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES WHERE A FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL EXIST,
PARTICULARLY IN PRONE LOCATIONS LIKE CANYONS. AS USUAL, MUCH OF
THE INITIAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD CONGREGATE ACROSS THE
LOCAL MOUNTAINS BEFORE MIGRATING TOWARD THE VALLEY FLOORS. THE
STORMS LIKELY WILL WANE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS GIVEN THE LOSS OF
HEATING.

LASTLY, WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 90S TO AROUND 100
DEGREES, HEAT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN HOISTED UP BY LOCAL FORECAST
OFFICES FROM EASTERN TEXAS/OKLAHOMA/KANSAS EASTWARD INTO SECTIONS
OF ARKANSAS/MISSOURI AS WELL AS WESTERN
ILLINOIS/KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE. HOWEVER, THE TRUE HOT SPOT IN THE
NATION WILL BE IN ITS USUAL LOCATION, THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, WITH
READINGS APPROACHING 110 DEGREES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.


RUBIN-OSTER


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
$$




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