Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXUS01 KWBC 200756
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
355 AM EDT WED SEP 20 2017

VALID 12Z WED SEP 20 2017 - 12Z FRI SEP 22 2017

...TROPICAL STORM JOSE WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND
RIP CURRENTS ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...

...SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CASCADES AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES...

TROPICAL STORM JOSE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD
WELL OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST.  DESPITE ITS LACK OF PROXIMITY, JOSE
WILL BRING HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COASTLINES.  COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE THIS
MORNING AND INTO THE EVENING.  BY THURSDAY, PRECIPITATION WILL
COMPLETELY TAPER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK
OF FLASH FLOODING WITH THIS HEAVY RAINFALL. IN ADDITION, DANGEROUS
SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP CURRENT THREAT WILL STILL EXIST FROM THE
BEACHES OF NORTH CAROLINA TO NEW ENGLAND.  FOR MORE INFORMATION ON
JOSE, PLEASE REFER TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
(WWW.HURRICANES.GOV).

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, THE AXIS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL MOVE INTO CANADA AS THE OCCLUDED FRONT LIFTS
NORTHWARD.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FIRING OFF
ALONG THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL EXTEND FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  HOWEVER, THIS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
ONLY HAVE A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. BY THURSDAY, LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL LINGER ALONG THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. EXPECT MORE
ROUNDS OF CONVECTION FOR THE UPPER MIDWEST BY FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD
OF ANOTHER IMPENDING COLD FRONT WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  SEE THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
(WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV) FOR MORE INFORMATION IN REGARDS TO SEVERE
WEATHER.

THE ACTIVE STORMY PATTERN FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHER ELEVATION
SNOW FOR THE CASCADES AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. BY THURSDAY, RAINFALL
ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WHILE INCREASING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN.  SNOWFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, UTAH, NEVADA, AND
EVEN THE HIGHEST PEAK IN THE SIERRA NEVADA MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY.
BY FRIDAY MORNING, PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN.

ELSEWHERE, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED FOR SOUTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS ON THURSDAY AS DEEP MOISTURE FEEDS ACROSS THE STATE.
 THE GULF COAST CAN ALSO EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY--WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF FLORIDA.

REINHART


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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