Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 030707
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030706
OHZ000-INZ000-030930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1595
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0206 AM CDT MON AUG 03 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL OHIO TO CENTRAL INDIANA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 030706Z - 030930Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A SQUALL LINE WILL CONTINUE ADVANCING SWD ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL OHIO TO CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE EARLY-MORNING HOURS.
STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY...THOUGH
ADDITIONAL SVR WIND GUSTS WILL BE UNLIKELY. WW ISSUANCE IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A W/E-ORIENTED SQUALL LINE
STRETCHING FROM NEAR MFD TO N OF LAF MOVING SWD AROUND 30 KT.
SINGLE-SITE RADAR DATA SAMPLING THIS LINE SUGGEST THAT ITS
ACCOMPANYING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY GENERALLY LIES AHEAD OF THE PARENT
CONVECTION. WITH AREA VWPS SAMPLING GENERALLY SQUALL-LINE-PARALLEL
LOW/MID-LEVEL MEAN FLOW...THE IMPLIED ANAFRONTAL CONFIGURATION OF
THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE AS IT SPREADS SWD.

NEVERTHELESS...A FEED OF RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SW -- REF
00Z ILX RAOB SAMPLING AROUND 13.0-13.5 G PER KG MEAN MIXING RATIO --
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF NEW CONVECTION ATOP THE
ESTABLISHED COLD POOL. DESPITE NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION OF THE
PBL...IR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS /AROUND -65C/
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOST INTENSE CONVECTION ARE BEING MAINTAINED.
THIS IS IN PROXIMITY TO A PLUME OF 1.00-1.50-INCH PW EXTENDING NEWD
FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY PER GPS DATA. FURTHERMORE...WITH
MODERATELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SAMPLED BY UPSTREAM 00Z RAOBS
FACILITATING ELEVATED BUOYANCY...A CONTINUED SWD SAG OF THE ONGOING
SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING -- REACHING
COLUMBUS OHIO TO INDIANAPOLIS IN THE 0815Z-0930Z TIME FRAME.

ULTIMATELY...CONTINUING NOCTURNAL GAINS IN STATIC STABILITY WILL
LEAD TO A WEAKENING TREND OF THIS CONVECTION AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
IS LACKING...BASED UPON MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY. IN THE
MEANTIME...ILN AND IND VWPS SAMPLED 30-40 KT OF FLOW ABOVE THE SFC
IN THE LOWEST 1 KM AGL...INDICATING THAT CONVECTIVE MOMENTUM
TRANSPORT COULD AID IN LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS...WITH THE LIMA
OHIO ASOS RECENTLY REPORTING A 50-KT WIND GUST. HOWEVER...THE
GROWING MLCINH AND ANAFRONTAL NATURE OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD
GREATLY LIMIT ADDITIONAL SVR-WIND POTENTIAL THROUGH THE
EARLY-MORNING HOURS. REGARDLESS...LOCALIZED STRONG-WIND GUSTS
CAPABLE OF SPORADIC DAMAGE CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

..COHEN/EDWARDS.. 08/03/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...

LAT...LON   39678729 40238666 40458417 40478301 40038280 39508302
            39258467 39118684 39678729



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