Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 301956
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301956
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-302100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0792
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0256 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...NE CO...SW NEB...FAR NW KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 301956Z - 302100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS NE
CO AND SW NEB. AIRMASS IS SUPPORTIVE OF SVR TSTMS AND A WW WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED TO COVER THE THREAT.

DISCUSSION...LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW NEAR THE UT/CO
BORDER CONTINUES EWD. MESOSCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ALSO EXISTS WITH
WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW CONTRIBUTING TO CONVERGENCE IN THE FOOTHILLS AND A
WEAK DRYLINE MOVING INTO NE CO. ALL OF THESE FACTORS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASED TSTM COVERAGE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

AIRMASS IN THE REGION IS CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
70S AND LOW 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AMIDST THESE SURFACE CONDITIONS ARE
CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
SAMPLED BY THE CYS AND FTG RADARS IS AROUND 35 KT...WHICH SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR MODEST UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION. THE PRIMARY SEVERE
THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL BUT RECENT MESOANALYSIS
SUGGESTS ENOUGH SURFACE VORTICITY EXISTS FOR A BRIEF TORNADO. A WW
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TO COVER THE SVR THREAT.

..MOSIER/CORFIDI.. 05/30/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   41460056 40460028 39710075 39240129 38700238 38740402
            38980473 39570494 40450477 40980422 41590213 41460056




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