Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS11 KWNS 132307
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132306
NJZ000-PAZ000-140030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1361
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0606 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN PA...N NJ

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 414...

VALID 132306Z - 140030Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 414
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...DAMAGING WIND RISK SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...BUT MAY SUFFICIENTLY LINGER FOR AN ADDITIONAL WW AHEAD OF
A BULGING CLUSTER TRACKING E FROM CNTRL PA. PROBABILITY OF
DOWNSTREAM WW ISSUANCE BY 01Z IS 40 PERCENT.

DISCUSSION...BROKEN CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS HAVE LARGELY WEAKENED
OUTSIDE OF A BULGING QLCS CENTERED FROM LYCOMING TO CENTRE COUNTIES.
30-40 KT LOW-LEVEL WLYS HAVE BEEN SAMPLED IN CCX VWP DATA IN THE
WAKE OF THIS BULGING STRUCTURE...CONSISTENT WITH FORWARD SPEED
AROUND 35 KT AND AIDING IN TREE DAMAGE REPORTS WITH A 30 KT GUST
MEASURED AT KUNV. LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT QUITE AS STRONG FARTHER SE
PER AMDAR DATA INVOF PHL. GIVEN WEEK DEEP-LAYER LAPSE RATES AND
SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TO COOL...OVERALL LINE INTENSITY
SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER DARK. STILL...A SWATH OF DAMAGING WINDS APPEARS
PROBABLE NEAR-TERM OVER E-CNTRL PA AND MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN
ADDITIONAL SHORT-DURATION WW.

..GRAMS.. 07/13/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...CTP...

LAT...LON   41217718 41447683 41527584 41277472 41037439 40737433
            40177454 40037472 39957541 40027650 40147725 40207768
            40457783 40817741 41217718



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