Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 241517
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241517
PAZ000-NYZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-241745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1951
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0917 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN OHIO...WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE...SOUTHWEST NEW YORK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 241517Z - 241745Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION...WITH LITTLE TO NO LIGHTNING...WILL
CROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AS
IT SPREADS NE. A WW WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SEGMENTS CONTINUE SPREADING NE
WITHIN BROADLY CONFLUENT FLOW PRECEDING A FRONT ANALYZED FROM
CENTRAL LOWER MI TO NWRN KY. AS THE SECOND VORT MAX IN A SERIES OF
THREE TRAINING MIDLEVEL PERTURBATIONS LIFTS INTO SWRN
ONTARIO...STRONGER ASCENT AND THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC FEATURES WILL
PROGRESS RAPIDLY NEWD...WITH CONVECTION SPREADING NE INTO THE
AFTERNOON -- REACHING COLUMBUS AND CLEVELAND IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
HOWEVER...AS STRONGER MID-LEVEL DCVA SPREADS NE OF THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER...CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD A LOW-TOPPED
REGIME. THIS IS EVIDENCED BY THE RECENT...RAPID DECREASE IN
LIGHTNING COVERAGE IN NWRN/N-CNTRL OHIO...ALONG WITH A NOTABLE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SAMPLED BY THE 12Z WILMINGTON OHIO RAOB JUST
BELOW THE 700-MB LEVEL. THE PRESENCE OF PRE-FRONTAL DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER 50S WILL SUPPORT A DEARTH OF BUOYANCY -- MLCAPE OF 100-300
J/KG WITH EL TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN -20C. HOWEVER...VERY STRONG
LOW-LEVEL FLOW -- E.G. 60-70 KT SWLYS SAMPLED BY THE WILMINGTON AND
CLEVELAND OHIO VWPS AT 1 KM AGL WILL ENHANCE CONVECTIVE MOMENTUM
TRANSPORT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO PERHAPS LOCALLY
MARGINALLY SVR WIND GUSTS INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE PAUCITY OF
BUOYANCY/DEARTH OF MOISTURE...AND LAGGING STRONGER
FRONTAL/BAROCLINIC CIRCULATIONS...SHOULD PRECLUDE A GREATER SVR-TSTM
RISK FROM OCCURRING.

..COHEN/THOMPSON.. 11/24/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...

LAT...LON   41298251 41618170 41978056 42407931 40598014 39728192
            39588338 40298333 41298251



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