Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 290332
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290331
OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-290500-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0489
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1031 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
REGION

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 121...

VALID 290331Z - 290500Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 121
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...INCREASING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...WITH AT LEAST SOME
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER...IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS OVERNIGHT.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A NEW WATCH WILL BE ISSUED
ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BY 04Z.

DISCUSSION...VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES ACROSS
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...FROM WEST AND NORTH OF DALHART
TX EASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.  THIS IS SUPPORTED
BY LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION ON THE LEADING EDGE OF WARM
AND CAPPING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR...WHICH IS ADVECTING NORTH OF
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  THIS IS
OCCURRING AHEAD OF UPSTREAM TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND
SOUTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION.

A SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE IS NOW PIVOTING AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF AN EMBEDDED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED WEST OF THE FOUR
CORNERS...ACROSS ARIZONA TOWARD THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.  AS THIS
PROGRESSES EASTWARD...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT FORCING FOR
ASCENT MAY CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING STORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE NEW
MEXICO/TEXAS BORDER AREA...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS 05-07Z.  SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40...THIS MAY MOSTLY BE FOCUSED WITHIN A REMNANT
LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH DAYTIME HEATING...WHERE
STEEP LAPSE RATES...COUPLED WITH RETURNING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...MAY
BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT.  BENEATH
STRENGTHENING CYCLONIC 500 MB FLOW...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION...PERHAPS
ACCOMPANIED BY THE RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL AND WIND.

..KERR.. 04/29/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON   36150393 36650275 36310186 36260042 35749994 34640009
            33910054 33270182 32600285 32930362 33490400 34310404
            35310418 36150393




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