Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
ACUS11 KWNS 251914
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251913
FLZ000-252115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1954
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0113 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 251913Z - 252115Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE OVER THE ERN GULF
OF MEXICO...AND THE RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
PERHAPS A TORNADO CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL
FL. A WW MAY BE CONSIDERED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS IF STORMS
STRENGTHEN AS THEY MOVE ONSHORE NEAR TAMPA AND VICINITY.

DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FORM
ALONG AND N OF A W-E ORIENTED BOUNDARY FROM JUST N OF TPA...TO
MCO...TO TTS ACROSS CNTRL FL. THESE STORMS POSE A VERY LIMITED RISK
FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS THEY MOVE NWD INTO A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR
MASS. ALONG AND S OF THIS SFC BOUNDARY THE ATMOSPHERE IS
CHARACTERIZED BY DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND WEAK TO
MODERATE INSTABILITY...WITH MLCAPE GENERALLY BETWEEN 500-1500 J/KG.
EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 40-50KT WILL SUPPORT THE ORGANIZATION OF ANY
STORMS FORMING S OF THE BOUNDARY...AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IN THE SHORT TERM.
WITH 0-1KM SHEAR WEAKER AT 10-20KT...THE TORNADO THREAT REMAINS
LIMITED.

SEMI-LINEAR CONVECTION HAS ALSO INCREASED IN COVERAGE OVER THE ERN
GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AS A SFC LOW FORMS IN THE
SAME AREA....AND THESE STORMS ARE SLOWLY APPROACHING THE W-CNTRL FL
COAST. THE COMBINATION OF WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR SUGGEST THAT THIS LINE OF STORMS SHOULD
BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITSELF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND MAY
EVENTUALLY POSE AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT FOR PORTIONS OF
W-CNTRL FL.

..GLEASON/THOMPSON.. 11/25/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...

LAT...LON   28238283 28468248 28398196 27528127 27098170 27238263
            27858291 28238283



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.