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000
FXUS61 KCLE 281031
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
631 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

...12z TAF Aviation and Near Term Forecast Update...

.SYNOPSIS...
Our region will be near the top edge of a large upper level
ridge of high pressure that is centered over the southeastern
U.S. today and Monday. An area of low pressure over the Central
Plains will move northeast into the Upper Midwest Monday. A
weak front will move east across the region Monday night into
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
630 am update...
We adjusted hourly POPs just a tad downward from now through the
afternoon hours. The original forecast guidance and hourly POPs
seemed just a little overdone and nudge them downward between 20
and 40 percent for areas near the lakeshore into far NEOH and
NWPA. We think areas south of the Ohio Turnpike will remain rain
free for the rest of today and have taken out the POPs.
Otherwise, we are already starting out warm and on our way to
the lower and maybe a few mid 80s this afternoon.

Previous discussion...
The main weather story for this near term forecast discussion
will be the very warm weather today and tomorrow. Temperatures
will be feeling more like early July than late April today and
Monday with some climate locations potentially within a few
degrees of record high temps. We have added a climate section at
the bottom of this discussion with the current record high
temperatures and associated years.

Strong warm air advection continues this morning and will
through Monday. Temperatures are starting off the 60s and a few
locations still near 70 degrees at this very early morning hour. Our
area is near the top of a large upper level ridge of high
pressure that is centered near the Southeast CONUS. We have some
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms on radar this
morning near northwest Ohio and the Lake Erie Islands. This
convection is mainly driven by a weak mid level disturbance that
is riding up and over that upper level ridge.

As the early morning hours goes along, that area of showers and
isolated thunder should expand eastward for areas near the
lakeshore and eventually over towards far NEOH and NWPA later
this morning. We have kept the POPs between 30 and 50 percent
through midday for the lakeshore into far NEOH and NWPA. The
POPs will decrease from west to east over NEOH/NWPA this
afternoon. As for high temperatures, we added a degree or two on
top of guidance for this afternoon. With partly cloudy skies
and a low level flow from the south-southwest, we should easily
top out in the lower 80s for most of northern Ohio and upper 70s
for NWPA. Tonight`s temperatures will stay on the warm side with
low temps back into the low to mid 60s.

The same storm system that brought all the very bad weather and
severe storms across the Central Plains region this weekend will
weaken as it tracks through the Upper Midwest and western Great
Lakes region Monday. An upper level trough will swing through
the Upper Midwest and western Great Lakes region Monday. An
area of low pressure and trailing weak front will move through
the southern Great Lakes and Upper Ohio Valley regions late
Monday. Ahead of this advancing weather system, we will see
another very warm day Monday with high temperatures reaching the
lower to middle 80s. Again, we added a degree or two on top of
forecast guidance given the very warm air advection. A few
climate locations will be within the daily record high
temperature Monday afternoon. See the climate section in this
discussion for that info.

Most of Monday will be dry until late afternoon when the weak
front moves into western Ohio. Scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms will become likely late Monday afternoon into the
evening. The thermodynamics with this system will be on the
weaker side. MLCAPE values will be up to 1000 J/kg and lapse
rates will be relatively weak as well. Bulk shear values will be
around 35 knots. Given the forecast environment, a couple
stronger storms may be possible but overall it doesn`t seem to
be a very setup for organized convection at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
An upper trough cutting through the Northwest Great Lakes will
support a cold front across the area on Monday night into Tuesday.
The front will support a window for showers and thunderstorms across
the forecast area and have continued a window of categorical PoPs
ahead of this feature. The front will exit to the southeast during
the daytime hours on Tuesday and have PoPs trending down with the
departure of the system. An upper ridge will develop behind the
upper trough and support a brief window of surface high pressure
across the region on Tuesday night into Wednesday and have a dry
forecast. The surface high will move east and return flow across the
region will allow for warm advection and additional moisture to
enter. This will give a window for some isolated showers to return
Wednesday night, but the main window for rain will be in the long
term forecast period below. Temperatures for the period will be warm
for the end of April and start of May. Warm air advection behind the
high pressure on Wednesday will be supportive of 80 degree highs to
return.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The forecast for the end of the week will return to unsettled as an
upper trough will dig into the central CONUS and support a low
pressure system that will move toward the Great Lakes region for
Friday and extend a cold front across the region early Saturday.
Rain chances will increase on Thursday as the warm front ahead of
the system will bring some extra moisture, which may allow for some
shower and isolated storm activity. The main window for convection
appears to be Friday ahead of the cold front as the upper trough
becomes negatively tilted across the Great Lakes and there will be
the best widespread lift for convection. Have Friday afternoon with
likely PoPs to reflect this. The cold front will move through the
region during the first half of Saturday and have PoPs trending down
with the frontal passage. There are still some timing differences
among the strength and trajectory of the upper trough that will
dictate the late week weather, so PoPs are a bit more broadbrushed
then what will be expected later in the week. Temperatures will
start warm in the 80s but likely return toward normal on Saturday in
the 60s with the cold frontal passage.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
VFR conditions are expected to continue for this set of TAFs.
The only exception may be for ERI this morning with a TEMPO
group between 13z and 16z due to scattered rain showers that
may briefly bring MVFR visibility at the airfield. There could
be an isolated thunderstorm near ERI today but the overall
potential and exact timing was not great enough to mention in
the TAF with this update. Skies will be mostly cloudy to partly
cloudy today into tonight with VFR ceilings for all sites.

Winds will continue from the south or southwest 10 to 15 knots
through the afternoon. Gusts up to 20 to 25 knots will be
possible after 15z this morning through the afternoon as well.
winds will decrease to 10 knots or less after sunset this
evening.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms on Monday. Non-VFR is most likely in showers and
thunderstorms Monday night into Tuesday with a cold front.

&&

.MARINE...
Southwest flow will continue across Lake Erie today but high
pressure reestablishing itself from the east will allow for the
pressure gradient to weaken and winds to diminish through the day.
The surface high will be pushed east on Monday by a cold front that
will clear the lake late Monday into Tuesday. Prior to the frontal
approach, there may be a window for a modified lake breeze off Erie,
PA and Ashtabula for some onshore flow. Once the front approaches,
southwest flow will return. Winds will veer slightly to the west
behind the front on Tuesday but the wind field appears unimpressive
at this time. High pressure will return for Wednesday and southerly
flow will return over the lake. A warm front will cross the lake on
Thursday and allow for more southeasterly flow to be favored and
winds may marginally increase. At this time, no marine weather
headlines are expected.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Forecast high temperatures today and Monday may be within a few
degrees of the daily record maximums for some climate
locations. Here are the current record high temperatures for
Sunday, April 28th and Monday, April 29th.

April 28th April 29th
Record/Year     Record/Year
Cleveland 88/1986 84/1899
Toledo 84/1990 87/1899
Erie 89/199082/1899
Youngstown 87/1986/1990  85/1942
Canton-Akron 88/1986 84/1888
Mansfield 83/1986 81/1942

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Griffin
NEAR TERM...Griffin
SHORT TERM...Sefcovic
LONG TERM...Sefcovic
AVIATION...Griffin
MARINE...Sefcovic
CLIMATE...