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000
FXUS61 KCLE 271022
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
622 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

...12z TAF Aviation and Near Term Forecast Update...

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will lift north through the area this morning. High
pressure will build just off of the East Coast this weekend with
an active storm track north and west of our region. A cold
front will move across the area Monday night into Tuesday
before dissipating.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
620 am update...
The only adjustment we made to the ongoing near term forecast
was from the present hour through 18z with the hourly POPs. We
tweaked the hourly POPs with respect to the latest radar trends
and the latest HRRR model output. We have seen a slight uptick
with scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms this
morning associated with a warm front lifting northward across
the region. Most of the rain chances will exit the local area by
midday with a drier trend for the afternoon.

Previous discussion...
Much warmer weather is on the way this weekend. A warm front is
currently lifting across the region this morning. As of 400 am
looking at the dewpoint , the warm front was located across
northwest Ohio stretching through central Ohio advancing
northeastward. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms have
developed in advance of the approaching warm front this morning.
The coverage of rain chances should increase now through mid
morning, especially over portions of NEOH and NWPA. A few
rumbles of thunder will be possible but no organized convection
is expected with this front.

Temperatures and humidity will climb upwards later today thanks
to that warm front with an airmass change. Most of the rain
chances will exit northeastward by midday leaving the area
mainly dry with only isolated rain chances through the
afternoon. High temperatures will range from the upper 60s to
low 70s across NWPA and lower to middle 70s over NEOH. High
temps will be approaching the upper 70s to near 80 degrees for
northwest Ohio this afternoon. Skies will start out mostly
cloudy with some breaks in the clouds by the afternoon expected.
Winds will become gusty from the south today 15 to 25 mph with
gusts up to 35 mph possible.

We will be on the top portion of an upper level ridge of high
pressure located near the southeast U.S. An active storm track
will remain just north and west of our region but close enough
that we may some chances for scattered showers and storms to
brush through our northern areas closer to the lakeshore and out
over Lake Erie tonight into Sunday. Areas closer to central Ohio
will have little to no rain chances for the rest of the weekend
but areas further north closer to Lake Erie will have some
chances through the end of the weekend. Tonight`s low
temperatures will be more like our average high temps for late
April, in the lower to middle 60s.

A weak frontal boundary will drift southward across southern
Ontario and Lower Michigan on Sunday. This frontal boundary may
be close enough to develop a few scattered showers and
thunderstorms across our northern zones closer to the lake on
Sunday. Otherwise, we will should see a mix of sun and clouds
with slightly humid conditions. High temps on Sunday will top
out in the lower to middle 80s across northern Ohio and in the
upper 70s in NWPA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A strong upper ridge will build north from the southeastern United
States and will allow the forecast area to be fully in the warm
sector of an incoming low pressure system. The ridge strength will
allow for the next system to be slower to reach the forecast area
but a cold front will ultimately reach and move through the forecast
area on Monday night into Tuesday, allowing for a window of showers
and perhaps some thunderstorms and have categorical PoPs for all
locations at some point during this period. Rain chances will
decrease with the departure of the front on Tuesday night and have
PoPs trending to dry. Temperatures on Monday will be warm for late
April with high temperatures in the 70s to lower 80s. Some record
highs for a few climate sites are low and attainable in the low to
mid 80s, so there will be a chance to reach those. Temperatures
behind the front on Tuesday will fall into the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Some brief upper level ridging and a surface high will be around the
region to start on Wednesday and allow for a short dry period.
Energy from an upper trough over the the upper Midwest will extend
toward the forecast area later on Wednesday and support a weak
trough into the region, which will allow for some marginal rain
chances. A shortwave over the central CONUS will develop a low
pressure system on Thursday, which will advance toward the region
for the end of the week, allowing for widespread chance PoPs for
Thursday into Friday. Temperatures through the end of the week will
continue to be on the warmer side of normal with a warm air
advection continuing to pump warm, moist air from the south.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Mainly VFR conditions are expected during the next 24 hours with
a slight exception possible for this morning with scattered
rain showers and isolated thunderstorms moving across northern
Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania. The greatest potential for
seeing some brief reduction in visibility 3sm to 5sm with
heavier rain showers or an isolated -TSRA will be for YNG and
ERI between 12z and 16z. This shower activity is with a warm
front lifting northward across the area this morning and will
out of the area by midday. Rain chances will go to slight
chances and broken to scattered ceilings will be generally above
4K feet for this afternoon. Ceilings will be above 5K feet
overnight. The other aviation weather issue will be the gusty
winds today. Southerly to southwesterly winds will increase 15
to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 or 30 knots very possible. Winds
and gusts will relax after sunset this evening to around 10 to
12 knots.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms Sunday through Monday. Non-VFR is most likely in
showers and thunderstorms Monday night into Tuesday with a cold
front.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure to the east of the Great Lakes and a warm front
extending north across Lake Erie this morning has allow for some
stronger southeast winds to develop across the lake. Winds may lash
at 20 kt or so through Noon but offshore flow should direct any
building wave action away from the American nearshore waters and
will continue without a Small Craft Advisory headline at this time.
On the back side of the warm front, southwest flow will be favored
through Monday. A cold front will cross the lake on Monday night
into Tuesday and winds will shift to the west. High pressure will
briefly return Tuesday night into Wednesday and winds will come back
around to the south.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Griffin
NEAR TERM...Griffin
SHORT TERM...Sefcovic
LONG TERM...Sefcovic
AVIATION...Griffin
MARINE...Sefcovic