000
FXUS64 KSJT 100852
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
352 AM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

A closed upper low located well southwest of the Texas Big Bend
region early today will move east through tonight across southern
Texas. Mid-level clouds will stream northward over most of the
southern two-thirds of the forecast area ahead of this upper level
system. As the upper level system moves further east overnight,
skies will clear over most of the area by tomorrow morning.
Afternoon highs over the northern two-thirds of West Central Texas
will be in the mid to upper 70s with upper 60s over the Interstate
10 corridor which will experience more cloud cover. Morning lows
tomorrow will be mostly in the mid to upper 40s.

15

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)

I didn`t make in major changes to the long term. I did adjust
temperatures slightly for a few periods to bring them into better
agreement with the latest MOS guidance. Compression on Tuesday,
ahead of this next front, will create afternoon highs well above
seasonal normals, mainly in the lower to mid 80s. As the front moves
quickly south Tuesday night, plan for north surface winds ranging
from 25 to 35 mph, with gusts to 45 mph possible. Over the higher
elevation areas just south of our Interstate 20 corridor, gusts near
60 mph are possible for a couple hours after midnight Tuesday night.
Wind gusts in these ranges would require at least a Wind Advisory.
Vehicles, especially high-profile, may encounter hazardous driving
conditions Tuesday night. On Wednesday, I`m expecting sustained
surface winds in the 20 to 30 mph range. The GFS brings a weak front
south across West Central Texas Friday afternoon and Friday evening.
However, the ECMWF doesn`t. Both models do bring a stronger front
across West Central Texas Sunday. The GFS is more aggressive with
QPF on Sunday. Nevertheless, given my low confidence regarding rain
potential, I decided to continue a dry forecast for now.

Huber


.FIRE WEATHER...

Expect elevated to near critical fire weather conditions Tuesday
afternoon and early evening. Southwest to west 10-15 mph 20 foot
winds ahead of a cold front, together with afternoon relative
humidities less than 20 percent, will result in dangerous fire
weather conditions over most of West Central Texas.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  75  50  85  41  59 /   5   5   0   0   0
San Angelo  73  47  86  43  60 /  10  10   0   0   0
Junction  68  46  83  46  60 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

15/Huber