Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 312021
AFDSJT

FXUS64 KSJT 312018
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
321 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Saturday)

A chilly night is in store, as ideal radiational cooling conditions
set up. The main caveat is cirrus that is forecast to stream across
the area during the early morning hours. This may hinder cooling
somewhat, but unseasonably cold temperatures are still forecast
across much of the area. Lows are forecast to drop into the upper
30s to lower 40s across most of the area, with some mid 30s possible
in low lying areas and river valleys. Patchy frost will be possible,
especially in the favored low lying areas. The frost is not expected
to be widespread enough for the issuance of a Frost Advisory at this
time. Surface high pressure will shift east on Saturday, with winds
becoming southeast by mid to late morning. Highs on Saturday will be
well below seasonal normals, in the mid to upper 60s.

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Friday)

Rain chances look promising for next week, with models continuing to
come into better agreement with each other. An area of high pressure
located east of the region on Saturday night will continue is trek
east, with a return flow developing across the area. As this occurs,
a strong upper-level trough will be moving east across the western
part of the country, with Tropical Storm Vance churning south of
Baja California. The incoming trough will help pull Vance to the
north and eventually northeast, increasing mid to upper-level
moisture across our area. At the same time, a weak surface low and
associated cold front will develop across the Central Plains Monday
evening, sending it south towards our area.

By Tuesday, the cold front will begin crossing our area with the
upper trough edging closer. This front will act as a focus for
increased shower and thunderstorm development. Moisture will also
continue to increase at all levels of the atmosphere, with forecast
soundings showing precipitable water values around 1.5 inches. This
is near the 99th percentile for this time of year, thus, locally
heavy rainfall is possible. Heading into the Wednesday/Thursday time
frame, the GFS wants to move the trough and moisture east of the
area while the Canadian GEM and ECMWF progress the trough eastward
at a much slower pace, with an upper-level low developing near southern
Arizona/Northern Mexico. These models continue rain chances through
Friday for the area as the upper-low slowly crosses the area. When
looking at the various model runs, the faster-paced operational GFS
was an outlier, with the forecast weighing heavily on the slower
scenario. At this time, it appears that this system will provide
beneficial rainfall to all of West Central Texas, with 1 to 2 inches
of precipitation likley, along with locally higher amounts
possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  37  64  51  70  60 /   0   0   0   5  10
San Angelo  38  69  49  72  61 /   0   0   5   5  10
Junction  38  68  48  70  59 /   0   0   0   5  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Daniels/Doll








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