Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
FXUS64 KSJT 262329
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
629 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016
Main concern this TAF package is the possibility of thunderstorms
for SOA, SJT and JCT TAF locations through this evening.
Thunderstorms still ongoing to the west and south of SJT
associated with weak upper low over thew area. One outflow
boundary is racing east to SJT, with continued thunderstorm
development for at least the next few hours, if not longer. Winds
will be gusty and variable at times for the next several hours
from outflow. Will also see scattered low clouds by morning for
the southern half of the area, with brief MVFR ceilings possible
for JCT, BBD and SOA.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 342 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016/
(Tonight and Monday)
A weak upper low over the Permian Basin west of Sterling and Irion
Counties should begin to drift to the south overnight and Monday,
and should be over or just north of the Big Bend region by Monday
evening. This to occur as the upper level high over the Four Corners
region strengthens somewhat. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
with locally heavy rain this afternoon will decrease in coverage
this evening. We are carrying 20-40 PoPs tonight with the higher
rain chance across our western counties, in closer proximity to the
weak upper low.
Rain chances will be lower on Monday with a decrease in lower to mid
level moisture, but a slight chance for showers/thunderstorms remains
across the area generally west of an Abilene to Sonora line. With
decreased cloud cover in the afternoon, temperatures on Monday should
reach highs in the lower to mid 90s across all of west central Texas.
(Monday Night through Sunday)
Models indicate that whatever is left of the TUTT low across the
area this afternoon will be drifting back to the southwest by
Monday Night, as the upper level ridge centered over Utah
strengthens. Weak shortwave will be riding this periphery of this
ridge, producing an area of convection across Kansas and Oklahoma
that will ride south into Texas late Monday Night into Tuesday.
Models continue to go back and forth with the strength of the
ridge axis and whether it will be strong enough to keep the
convection farther east or allow it to drop into West Central
Texas. At this point, will remain closer to the wetter solution,
with best chances across the Heartland and eastern Big Country.
For the remainder of the week, the upper level high pressure ridge
axis settles into the area. This may leave the northern Big
Country along the edge of the storm track as shortwaves rotate
around the edge. Will keep the PoPs in place as far south as I-20
for Friday with the strongest wave, but keep in confined to
Haskell and Throckmorton counties the remainder of the time.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 73 93 72 92 / 20 20 20 30
San Angelo 71 93 70 92 / 30 20 10 20
Junction 71 93 72 92 / 20 10 10 20