Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KSJT 011701
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1201 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2015

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
Mainly VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours. However,
stratus may develop for a few hours Thursday morning across much
of West Central Texas. Confidence is not not high enough to add
MVFR at the terminals. The winds will be south with gusts to 25
knots through this evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT Wed Jul 1 2015/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Low cloud development early this morning is more extensive than
previously anticipated, and now carrying ceilings at all TAF sites
except KABI. Ceilings are mostly MVFR, but occasionally dropping
below 1000ft at KSOA. Expect a quick breakup of the low cloud
field around mid-morning. A scattered to broken VFR-based cumulus
field is expected this afternoon, with generally clear skies
tonight. Some low cloud development is possible again early
Thursday morning across the southern part of our area, but with
model differences and uncertainty toward the end of the TAF
period, have not included a mention with this TAF package. South
winds will increase and become gusty today, with the higher wind
speeds and gusts expected at KABI.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT Wed Jul 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Quiet weather is expected today and tonight for our area. The upper
level high will remain centered over the Great Basin, with a ridge
extension southeast into west central Texas. This will provide
sufficient subsidence with slight mid-level warming to inhibit
shower/thunderstorm development in our area today. Any development
over the Hill Country should remain southeast of our area. Clear to
partly cloudy skies are expected, with patchy low cloud development
early this morning over roughly the southern third of our area, and
with a diurnal cumulus field by this afternoon. With increasing
surface pressure gradient, south winds will increase and become
gusty today. Highs this afternoon will be mostly in the 90-93 degree
range, with a few mid 90s in the northern Big Country. Overnight
lows will be mostly between 69 and 73 degrees, with a few mid 70s in
the northern Big Country.

LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Wednesday)

Upper level ridge over the Great Basin may weaken just enough to
allow for better northerly flow and a weak front to make it into
the Texas Panhandle and Oklahoma. This may generate enough
convection to push the front itself or some outflow boundaries
south across the Red River towards the northern Big Country.
Chances are small, but enough there to keep the slight chance of
storms in the forecast for mainly Haskell and Throckmorton
counties for Thursday Night through Saturday. Elsewhere, ridge
will hold strong enough to keep chances for convection down to a
minimum.

Upper ridge takes builds east again and dominates by Sunday and
this should persist through much of next week. Dry and warm
forecast to continue.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  93  72  92  74  92 /   0   5   5  10  10
San Angelo  92  70  91  72  91 /   5   5   5   5   5
Junction  91  69  87  71  89 /  10   5   5   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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