Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 181754

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1154 AM CST Mon Dec 18 2017

/18Z TAFS/

Still seeing some IFR ceilings at KJCT and KSOA late this morning
but ceilings are expected to lift to MVFR around 20Z. VFR expected
across the remaining terminals this afternoon. Expect deteriorating
conditions across the terminals from south to north tonight, with
a combination of MVFR/IFR ceilings and fog developing. Poor
conditions expected towards daybreak, with IFR/LIFR conditions
all terminals, with patchy dense fog possible across the southern
terminals. Also included -SHRA across the terminals Tuesday
morning as an upper level disturbance moves across the area.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 506 AM CST Mon Dec 18 2017/

/12Z TAFS/

Fog and stratus is resulting in IFR/LIFR conditions at most sites,
except KABI, early this morning. Expect these lowered ceilings and
visibilities to continue through mid morning, then gradually
improve to VFR by late morning or early afternoon. MVFR ceilings
may linger at the southern 3 sites through mid afternoon. Another
round of stratus/fog will be possible late this evening into
Tuesday morning, resulting in reduced visibilities and ceilings.
In addition, scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible,
especially at KBBD and KJCT, mainly after midnight Tuesday.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 415 AM CST Mon Dec 18 2017/

(Today and Tonight)

Stratus have developed across Interstate 10 corridor early this
morning and is forecast to spread to at least the southern two
thirds of West Central Texas. In addition, areas of fog are
developing across portions of the area. Areas of dense fog will be
possible and Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for a large
portion of the region until 9 AM. Cloud cover and fog are slowly
expected to erode by mid to late morning, with most locations
seeing partly cloudy skies this afternoon. Southern and eastern
portions of the forecast area may see cloud cover linger into the
afternoon hours. Exactly how fast cloud cover erodes will be a
factor in how warm temperatures get this afternoon. For now,
leaned closer to the GFS for highs this afternoon, with most
locations topping out in the low to mid 60s. If cloud cover
lingers into the afternoon hours, these temperatures may need to
be adjusted down, closer to what the NAM is forecasting.

An upper level low across northern Mexico and the Desert
Southwest will track west toward the forecast area tonight. Large
scale lift will result in the development of showers and
thunderstorms, with the best chance across the southern half of
the area. In addition, areas of fog may develop during the early
morning hour and this is reflected in the forecast. Overnight lows
will be well above seasonal normals, in the mid 40s to lower 50s.


(Tuesday through next Sunday)

Will continue the strong likelihood of precipitation into Tuesday
morning, along with some areas of fog possible through at least
part of the morning hours Tuesday. Precip chances diminish during
the afternoon hours, and move out of the area for the most part
Tuesday evening.

Wednesday and Thursday continue to look warm with highs in the mid
60s to lower 70s. And if guidance continues the latest trends, we
may see highs in the mid to upper 70s by Thursday.

Models continue to struggle with the Thursday night through
weekend time period. A cold front is still expected to move
through late Thursday night/Friday morning, cooling high
temperatures into the 50s Friday and Saturday. The next push of
cold air is expected to push through the area Saturday night,
resulting in further cooling for Sunday. As far as precipitation
goes, the forecast continues to be uncertain, but has continued to
trend to a drier solution, so will only have slight chances for
precipitation for areas east of a Brownwood to Brady to Junction
line from late Thursday night through Friday with passage of the
initial cold front.



Abilene  63  47  60  38 /   5  20  50  10
San Angelo  63  47  63  40 /   5  30  50   5
Junction  62  50  64  39 /  10  60  70   5
Brownwood  62  50  59  37 /  10  30  80  10
Sweetwater  63  45  61  40 /   5  20  40  10
Ozona       60  45  62  37 /   5  40  40   5




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