Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 292308

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
508 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015

/00Z TAFS/

MVFR/IFR ceilings will continue at all sites through late morning
Monday. Patchy fog is forecast overnight which may reduce
visibilities into the IFR category. Slowly improving conditions
are expected by late Monday, with VFR conditions returning by
early to mid afternoon. Winds will remain light through the next
24 hours.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 337 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015/

(Tonight and Monday)

The persistent upper low over the four corners area is starting to
finally move off to the northeast. We will see one more night of
cloudy, cold, drizzly and foggy weather as the cold air remains
entrenched over us for just a bit longer. Expect temperatures again
to not change too much overnight with lows generally in the mid to
upper 30s. May see patchy fog developing overnight, with one more
round of drizzle/light rain toward morning...mainly eastern
counties. We should finally start to clear out after mid morning
tomorrow, with highs warming into the 50s, and possibly lower 60s
over the southwest which should see the most clearing by afternoon.


(Monday night through next Sunday)

A fairly quiet weather pattern is indicated for our area during
the week.

The upper low will move northeast toward the upper Mississippi
Valley on Tuesday, and into the western Great Lakes Tuesday night.
A trough extending to the southwest of the low will become more
elongated, with the southern part of the trough moving east across
our area on Wednesday. Anticipate an increase in cloud cover
across our southern and southwestern counties Tuesday into Tuesday
night, as return low-level flow briefly brings back moisture at
850mb. With the approach of the aforementioned trough, will have a
low possibility of a few sprinkles or brief light rain showers
Tuesday night in the far southeastern part of our area. However,
the chance looks remote enough to leave out of the forecast at
this time.

A weak cold front will push south across our area late Tuesday
night, with slightly cooler temperatures following for Wednesday.
Seasonably cool and dry conditions will continue Thursday, with
mostly clear skies. Expect to have a couple of colder nights with
lows around the freezing mark (early Thursday and Friday mornings),
when good radiational cooling conditions will occur with a dry

A warmup will begin Friday and continue into Saturday for our area.
Return flow will develop and strengthen, as surface ridge axis
shifts east of our area and surface pressure gradient increases.

The 12Z GFS and ECMWF look to be in reasonable agreement with the
system that could affect our area next weekend. An upper trough is
progged to enter the western US Thursday night, then move east
toward the Rockies Friday night. The ECMWF develops a closed low in
the southern part of this trough by Saturday morning over the Four
Corners region, while the GFS is a little faster with the
progression of the trough, developing a closed low over the Texas
Panhandle Saturday night. With the approach of this system, appears
that the combination of lift and the depth of moisture could become
marginally sufficient to support a slight chance of showers Saturday
night across the northern part of our area. Both models bring a cold
front southeast across our area on Sunday. With the model and
collaborative considerations, have an expanded slight chance PoP for
showers across much of our area on Sunday. Mid-level lapse rates may
be supportive for some elevated thunderstorms as well. At this
point, need to await model consistency with the specific pattern
setup before getting too concerned with the details in that part of
the forecast.



Abilene  36  56  36  57 /  20  10   5   5
San Angelo  38  60  37  60 /  10   5   5   5
Junction  39  59  41  60 /  10  10  10  10


.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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