000
FXUS64 KSJT 302331
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
531 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will persist across most of the area this evening,
with ceilings gradually lowering into MVFR category generally
after 04z. However, there are some ceilings near 3000 ft in the
KBBD area that may persist for a few more hours. As rain moves
into the area late tonight and early Saturday, expect ceilings to
drop to around 1500 ft initially, settling around 500 ft for much
of the day tomorrow. Rain and mist should also limit visibilities
to 2-4 miles for a good portion of Saturday. Generally east winds
will slowly veer to the southeast overnight, and are expected to
increase to around 12 kts by mid/late morning.

Johnson

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 PM CST FRI Jan 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Saturday)

An upper trough over Baja California was bringing lift and
scattered showers to Arizona, New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle
this afternoon. Rain from this system is expected to develop in
West Central Texas mainly after midnight, as lift from this system
approaches. Good lift will continue into early Saturday afternoon.
GFS models indicate SB CAPES of 100-400 J/KG Saturday along and
south of Big Lake...San Angelo...San Angelo line. This could allow
the development of an isolated thunderstorm or two, but did not
include in forecast due to sparse coverage.

The main effect will be beneficial rainfall, heavy at times. The
heaviest rainfall amounts will likely be across the the Concho
Valley and Big Country Saturday. Rain amounts of 1/4 to 3/4 inches
expected, with locally heavy amounts of 1 1/2 inches possible.  As
the rain will fall over an extended time period, flash flooding is
not expected. However, there is always the potential for
hydroplaning during heavy rainfall.

04

LONG TERM...
(Saturday night-Sunday)

Expect rain to continue through Saturday night before tapering off
Sunday afternoon as an upper level low located across southern
California is forced to the south by a shortwave trough
approaching the South Plains. By Sunday afternoon and evening, the
northern stream flow should push the upper low into central
Mexico, causing precipitation chances to decrease across West
Central Texas. A cold front and weak upper level ridging will move
into the area on Sunday reinforcing the cooler air and clearing
skies Sunday night. If skies clear, temperatures should drop below
freezing across most of the region.

(Monday through Friday)

A ridge of high pressure will build into West Central Texas
during the work week as a Canadian cold front is progged by the
models to "backdoor" into West Central Texas Wed night into
Thursday morning. Look for a warming trend to continue into
Wednesday as temperatures warm into the mid 60s, and this will be
followed by cooler temperatures on Thursday with afternoon highs
in the 50s.

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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  43  50  47  49  27 /  60 100  60  30  10
San Angelo  45  54  50  53  30 /  70 100  50  30  10
Junction  47  56  52  56  32 /  60  90  60  50  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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