


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
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983 FXUS64 KSJT 140620 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 120 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... - Flood Watch has been extended for the Northern Edwards Plateau, Northwest Hill Country and Heartland through 8 PM Monday. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 100 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 ...Flash flood watch has been extended through 8 PM this evening... A disturbance along the Rio Grande River Valley was moving slowly north, with thunderstorms in Edwards county at 1 AM, potentially moving into Sutton and Kimble counties in the next couple hours. As the atmosphere remains very tropical-like, locally heavy rainfall possible today over the I-10 corridor/NW Hill country/Heartland. The flash flood watch is been extended through 8 PM tonight for this area. Some storms may move into Concho Valley this afternoon, though most coverage of showers and storms will be south. If it does look like coverage will be more scattered, the flood watch may need to be expanded, particularly to Tom Green county, where severe flooding took place. Also, some models, mainly the NAM have a weak upper low later tonight/Tuesday morning over the region. This could extend flash flood problems into Tuesday. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 100 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 A low pressure aloft will linger across southwest Texas leaving us with weak flow aloft. This will provide enough support to see continued chances (20-30%) for rain into Tuesday afternoon. With slow storm motions and ample moisture across the area, we will still be at risk of seeing excessive rainfall potentially leading to flash flooding. This is especially true given the recent saturation of soils across the region due to recent rainfall. Then, we should see a period of drier weather develop for Wednesday and Thursday onward. Expect high temperatures to reach into the upper 80s to middle 90s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1240 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Isolated/scattered thunderstorms may into the I-10 corridor this morning and continue into the afternoon. Some storms may produce IFR visibilities in heavy rainfall. Some patchy MVFR stratus is also likely, mainly at KJCT, KSOA, KBBD this morning, as vegetation and soils are wet from recent rainfall. Added prob30 to to KSJT this afternoon for isolated thunderstorms. South winds generally less than 10 KTS expected, except for gusty winds near storms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 91 72 91 73 / 20 10 20 10 San Angelo 87 70 87 71 / 30 30 40 10 Junction 86 70 87 71 / 50 20 30 10 Brownwood 89 71 89 72 / 20 10 20 10 Sweetwater 92 72 91 72 / 20 10 20 10 Ozona 84 70 85 71 / 40 30 30 10 Brady 86 70 87 71 / 50 20 30 10 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through this evening for Brown-Crockett-Kimble-Mason- McCulloch-Menard-San Saba-Schleicher-Sutton. && $$ SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM....41 AVIATION...04