Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS64 KSJT 272332
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
631 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
Expect VFR conditions at the terminals the next 24 hours. Isolated
to scattered thunderstorms will be possible mainly Thursday
afternoon west of a Abilene to San Angelo to Ozona line. Have
added a VCTS to the KABI terminal after 21Z Thursday, with no
mention of thunder at other terminals.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 522 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

UPDATE...
See update discussion below.

DISCUSSION...
Radar trends indicating a few showers and thunderstorms across the
Northern Edwards Plateau and Concho Valley. Updated grids and
zones to insert slight chance POPS for tonight west of a Abilene to
San Angelo to Ozona line.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Thursday)

Rain chances for the next 24 hours remain somewhat promising. The
NAM continues to present a QPF band over the Texas panhandle later
tonight, as an upper trough begins to move into the southern
Rockies. As the upper trough moves over the southern Rockies and
into the Plains tomorrow, the NAM pushes a QPF band into West
Central Texas. Unfortunately, the GFS lags the NAM considerably and
doesn`t move any QPF area into our counties until tomorrow night.
So, with a nod toward the NAM, continuing 30 PoPs for our
northwestern counties, along with 20 PoPs elsewhere, looks
reasonable for tomorrow.

Huber

LONG TERM...
(Friday into Thursday)

An upper trough will slowly move east across the Central Plains
and North Texas, Thursday night into Friday. The best lift from this
system will be north of I-20. The GFS model is the most aggressive
with rainfall amounts, with 1 to 3 inches along and north of a
Sweetwater to Brownwood line. The NAM model had generally 1/2 inch
or less rainfall, and the EC 1/10 inch or less. GFS and NAM model
precipitable water does increase to 2 inches Thursday night.
Combined the expected slow movement of the storms, there could
indeed be some locally heavy rainfall, but confidence is low given
the variation of the model QPF algorithm output. Most of the Big
Country is in the extreme drought category, so flooding potential is
limited.

Isolated showers and thunderstorms will likely linger Friday
afternoon into Saturday as the upper system lifts northeast. There
should be some relieve from the Summer heat, with highs in the lower
90s Friday, but temperatures will warm back into the mid and upper
90s this weekend. Hot and dry otherwise next week, as an upper ridge
rebuilds over the region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  75  95  71  91  72 /  20  20  50  40  30
San Angelo  73  96  72  93  72 /  20  20  30  30  30
Junction  72  96  73  94  71 /  10  20  20  30  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

21






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.