000
FXUS64 KSJT 280440
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1140 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Conditions will remain VFR for the next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 611 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Look for VFR conditions to continue for the next 24 hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 342 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Friday)

Overall, continued little change to the forecast from previous
thinking, with a dry and warm forecast expected through Friday. A
fairly strong upper level low moving through the Great Lakes
region will force the upper level ridge axis to our north to shift
southward and over Texas by tomorrow. At the surface, a weak cold
front will move south into the Red River Valley, possibly reaching
our northern counties by late in the day. However, with the ridge
axis over the top of the area, do not expect thunderstorms to be
able to develop along the boundary in our area. Otherwise,
continued southerly flow at the surface, with lows tonight in the
lower to mid 70s, and highs Friday in the familiar mid 90s to
around 100 degrees.

20

LONG TERM...

(Friday night through Sunday afternoon)

The upper level ridge that is currently centered over the Great
Plains will be weakened by a possible developing upper level low
pressure system moving across the northeastern US. The high pressure
ridge will shift towards the west late Friday night and into early
Saturday morning leaving a window for a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms across the Big Country. As the ridge continues to
weaken and shift towards the west, additional shower and
thunderstorm activity is possible on Sunday across the majority of
the area. However, chances remain fairly low at 30 to 40 percent
across the region. Otherwise, temperatures are expected to be near
normal on Saturday and Sunday with highs in the mid to upper 90s.
Low temperatures overnight will remain in the low to mid 70s.

(Monday through Thursday)

Rain chances increase next week as weak northerly flow aloft
becomes more northwest. At the surface, easterly upslope winds
will allow the MCS development north, particularly in the
Panhandle and Permian Basin, which would then move southeast into
West Central Texas. Best chances of rainfall, in the period
Monday into Tuesday, will be in the Big Country and western and
northern portions of the Concho Valley. Shower and thunderstorms
chances increase Wednesday as a weak cold front moves through. By
Thursday best rain chances are south along the I-10 corridor
along the front, with drier air over the Big Country. Cooler
temperatures are in store next week with highs mainly in the lower
90s with even upper 80s in the Big Country Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  75 100  75  98 /   0   5   5  20
San Angelo  74 100  73 100 /   0   0   5   5
Junction  73  99  72 100 /   0   0   5   5
Brownwood  74 100  74  98 /   0   5  10  20
Sweetwater  75  98  75  97 /   0   0   5   5
Ozona       72  97  71  98 /   0   0   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$