Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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901
FXUS64 KSJT 061149
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
549 AM CST Tue Dec 6 2016


.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

A cold front that passed through KABI around 11Z will push
through West Central Texas this morning. North winds will gust to
25 to 30 KTS for 3 to 5 hours after frontal passage at KABI.
Ceilings will fall to IFR at KABI and KBBD, with MVFR at
KSJT...KSOA and KJCT. IFR to MVFR ceilings return overnight with
light northeast to east upslope winds.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 508 AM CST Tue Dec 6 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

A cold front with post frontal stratus will move through West
Central Texas this morning. Some models including the HRRR and GFS
indicate light drizzle/light rain behind the front mid morning into
mid afternoon, mainly along and east of a Haskell...Abilene... Brady
line. Patchy morning fog is possible in the southern zones,
particularly in valley areas, through a combination of light winds
and wet vegetation. Sonora was falling to 1 mile in fog at 2 AM.

Cooler with clouds and cooler air behind the the front. There will
not be much change in temperatures during the day, particularly in
the Big Country where temperatures will remain in the mid/upper 40s.
Highs will be in the lower 50s south. Clouds will remain over the
region tonight with lows in the mid and upper 30s.

04

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)

Much colder Wednesday night into Friday with light wintry
precipitation possible late Wednesday night and Thursday morning...

Our area will have briefly warmer temperatures on Wednesday with
less cloud cover in the afternoon and south to southwest winds.
Highs will range from the mid 50s across our northern counties, to
mid 60s south.

A second, much stronger cold front will advance south across the
Southern Plains and into our far northern counties by 6 PM. This
front will surge south across west central Texas Wednesday night,
and should be south of the I-10 corridor just after Midnight. Much
colder air will follow passage of this front, and will be
accompanied by brisk north winds.

The forecast becomes problematic with precipitation type late
Wednesday night and Thursday morning. Much colder air will plunge
south across our area in the wake of the frontal passage, and
temperatures are expected to be in the mid 20s north to lower 30s
in our far southern counties by daybreak Thursday. With a weak
disturbance aloft moving across the southern half of our area, and
some lift in the right entrance region of an upper level jet, some
light precipitation is possible Wednesday night and Thursday
morning, across roughly the southern half of our area. Light rain
will be possible Wednesday night, with a light rain/snow mix
possible toward morning in the northern part of the precipitation
area (Mertzon, San Angelo, Richland Springs). As temperatures drop
to/below freezing, patchy light freezing rain may also develop
Thursday morning. The 00Z GFS point soundings show a few hours of
saturation with snow or nearly all-snow profiles at San Angelo,
Ozona and Eldorado by 9 AM Thursday.

PoPs have been raised slightly for the southwestern part of our
area, but remain low. Any precipitation is expected to be light,
and with warm ground temperatures, should minimize travel impacts.
We are closely monitoring model updates and make further revisions
to precipitation type in the coming forecasts.

Wind chill readings for the morning commute Thursday are expected to
be in the teens across most of our area, to around 20 in our far
southeastern counties. Wind speeds will decrease during the
afternoon Thursday, but wind chill readings will remain confined to
the 20s. High temperatures Thursday are expected to be mostly in the
mid to upper 30s, with a decrease in cloud cover from the north
during the afternoon.

Winds will diminish Thursday night, as a strong surface high settles
into the Southern Plains and Texas. With a very cold airmass and
clear skies, temperatures are expected to drop to overnight lows in
the upper teens to lower 20s. Friday will be mostly sunny but cold,
with highs mostly in the lower 40s across our area.

A warming trend in temperatures is expected over the weekend. Gusty
south winds should develop on Saturday with lee surface trough
developing to our west. A weak cold frontal passage is progged on
Sunday, but should remain dry for our area. The forecast pattern
looks quiet for west central Texas for the first part of next week,
with a progressive series of shortwave troughs traversing the
northern CONUS and quasi-zonal flow aloft over our area.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  47  36  56  26 /   5   5   5  10
San Angelo  51  38  64  28 /   0   0   5  20
Junction  56  38  65  32 /   0   0   5  20
Brownwood  50  38  58  28 /  10   5   5  10
Sweetwater  47  36  56  25 /   0   0   5  10
Ozona       54  38  64  29 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

99/99/04



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