Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 270255 CCA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
949 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

The dryline is retreating across the southeastern part of
our area late this evening, and at 930 PM extends from
Brownwood to Brady to between Junction and Sonora. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms have been developing just ahead of
the dryline during the evening near the northeastern border
of San Saba County, but this convective activity now appears to be
decreasing. With the upper shortwave trough axis shifting east of
our area, and with nocturnal cooling of the boundary layer, not
expecting further development tonight. Forecast is being updated to
remove mentionable PoPs for San Saba and southern Brown Counties. A
weak cold front is approaching our far northern counties, and will
progress south to near a Brownwood-San Angelo line by daybreak
Monday. Winds will shift to the north with passage of this front.
Cloud cover was increased for the southeastern part of our area
overnight, where boundary layer moisture increase should result in
some low cloud development toward morning. Updated forecast products
will be out shortly.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 613 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017/

A quick update to the forecast was made to carry low PoPs for
San Saba and southern Brown Counties. Isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms have developed along the dryline
as far southwest as these counties this evening. A few of the
storms could contain dangerous lightning, gusty winds and brief
heavy rain, but the severe weather threat is expected to stay
east of our forecast area this evening.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 605 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017/

/00Z TAFS/

West to southwest winds will become light this evening, ahead of
an approaching weak cold front. Patchy stratus may approach the
southern 3 sites after 06z, but confidence is not high enough to
include MVFR ceilings at this time. Otherwise, VFR conditions will
prevail through the next 24 hours. The cold front will move
through the region early Monday morning, resulting in light north

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 345 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017/

(Tonight and Monday)

Early this afternoon an upper low, associated with an eastward
moving upper trough over the Southern Plains, is located just north
of the Panhandle. At the surface, a dryline, extending south from a
surface low located over the northern Panhandle, is pushing east
through the forecast area. A weak Pacific cold front located west of
the CWA is trailing the dryline. The dryline/cold fount will move
quickly east across West Central Texas and should be located along
our eastern tier of counties later this afternoon. Strong winds
associated with the surface frontal boundaries will relax by later
this evening.

Upper ridging will build over the area from the west in the wake of
the departing upper trough. Tomorrow will see generally light
northerly winds with morning temperatures ranging from around 50
over the northern half of the forecast area to the mid 50s over the
southern half of the area. Another warm forecast is on tap for
tomorrow afternoon with high temperatures ranging from the upper 70s
north of Interstate 20 to the upper 80s along the Interstate 10

(Monday Night through Sunday)

All signs still pointing to a widespread convective event for
Tuesday and Tuesday Night, as a potent upper level low moves east
into New Mexico. Models have changed slightly, showing a slightly
more eastward push by the dryline on Tuesday afternoon, perhaps
as far as the extreme western Concho Valley and Big Country. This
doesn`t make much difference in the forecast at this point, other
than perhaps shifting the severe threat a little farther east on
Tuesday afternoon. Given the abundant low level moisture along the
Texas coast, this slight shift east of the dryline may be
optimistic in any case. Abundant moisture, strong cap, and plenty
of shear will be in place by Tuesday afternoon ahead of the
dryline for at least scattered storms, with a few severe storms
certainly looking possible. Dryline retreats slightly Tuesday
evening, before the cold front catches up and surges across the
area late Tuesday night and early Wednesday morning with anther
chance of strong to severe storms.

Upper low shifts a little faster north on Wednesday, but a few
lingering showers or storms may be possible north of the I-20
corridor with the system itself. Rest of the week looks dry, with
weak upper level ridging in place. Next storm system for next
weekend looks quite a bit different on todays runs than it did
yesterday, with it running a little farther north and keeping most
of the showers and storms east of the area. Given the model
swings, have decreased PoPs only slightly for next weekend.

Near critical fire weather conditions will continue along and west
of an Abilene to San Angelo to Sonora line into early evening due to
gusty west to southwest winds and relative humidity values less than
20 percent. Fire weather concerns will subside later this evening as
the winds abate and relative humidity values increase.


Abilene  51  80  56  80 /   0   0   5  50
San Angelo  52  86  60  84 /   0   0   5  50
Junction  55  88  60  82 /   5   5  10  40
Brownwood  52  82  58  80 /  10   0  10  50
Sweetwater  50  79  55  81 /   0   0   5  50
Ozona       52  85  60  82 /   0   0   5  40



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