Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KSJT 222336
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
536 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Look for VFR conditions to dominate for the next 24 hours. Patchy
MVFR to IFR ceilings will continue at the Brady terminal for the
next few hours. Then, VFR ceilings will return there, as convection
moves over and southeast. For tomorrow, plan for very gusty west
to northwest winds, as a pacific front moves east across Texas.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Sunday)

Upper low was moving east out of the Big Bend region this afternoon.
This may generate a few storms along the I-10 corridor from Ozona
to Junction where mid level lapse rates were 7-8 C/KFT and CAPES
were around 2000 J/K. For severe storms however, it will have to a
narrow opportunity with loss of the sun`s heating. The best scenario
is non severe thunderstorms to move east into the I-10 corridor from
higher terrain in the Trans Pecos and Northern Mexico late afternoon
and evening.

Ongoing showers and thunderstorms at 330 PM in the Big Country
southward to Robert Lee...Ballinger...Lake O H Ivie and Coleman
should weaken fairly rapidly later this afternoon with loss of the
sun`s heating. Localized flooding issues are the main hazard for
next 2-3 hours in Coleman and Runnels counties. Steering winds will
be turning east with the approaching upper trough this evening,
moving the storms east of the CWA.

Strong gusty west to northwest winds are expected to develop by late
Sunday morning, particularly in the Big Country and Concho Valley,
as a strong surface low moves east across Oklahoma and a cold front
moves through West Central Texas. Sustained winds of 20 to 30 mph
with gusts of 35 to 40 mph are likely. While conditions will be
elevated to near critical for fire weather, moist ground from
today`s rain should mitigate fire danger.

LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Saturday)

The extended period will feature dry northwesterly flow through
mid week, with a transition to a more zonal flow pattern by weeks
end. It will be dry through the period, with a couple of weak
fronts affecting the area, one on Tuesday and another next Friday.
The fronts will have minimal affect on our weather, other than
slightly cooler temperatures behind them. Temperatures for the
most part will remain below normal through the forecast period,
with highs in the 50s and lower 60s and overnight lows mainly
in the 30s and lower 40s. The exception will be Thanksgiving Day
when temperatures will be closer to normal, with highs in the mid
and upper 60s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  48  68  38  58  34 /  20   0   5   0   5
San Angelo  46  73  37  60  34 /  20   0   5   0   5
Junction  46  76  37  62  33 /  40   0   0   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

04/24/Huber






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