Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 290523
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1122 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Not much has changed in the ongoing forecasts, with VFR conditions
prevailing late this evening. This will continue into the early
morning hours, although models are showing MVFR ceilings will
redevelop in a similar way to what we saw on Friday morning. This is
day 2 of the moisture return so CIGS may end up a little more
widespread than what we saw today. Otherwise, timing looks about the
same.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 528 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will prevail across West Central Texas terminals
this evening and into the overnight hours. MVFR ceilings did make
it back into the area briefly this morning, and suspect that they
may do so again. Models suggest they will, but differ wildly on
coverage and timing. Will use the timing and coverage from this
morning as a starting point and given that this would be night 2,
expand the coverage and speed up the timing slightly.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Saturday)

A warming trend will continue for the next 24 hours. Surface winds
tonight will have a slight southwesterly component across most of
West Central Texas. This, along with increasing surface moisture,
will help hold overnight lows mainly in the 45 to 50 range. For
Saturday, a surface trough to the west will create gusty southerly
surface winds across most of West Central Texas. These winds,
which will also have a down-slope component across most areas, will
help push afternoon highs above seasonal normals, mainly in the
mid to upper 70s.

LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Friday)

The warming trend continues into Sunday, before another cold front
brings colder air back to West Central Texas for the start of next
week. Overnight Saturday night, increasing low-level moisture
will help hold overnight lows mainly in the upper 40s to the lower
50s range. For Sunday, gusty southerly surface winds will again
help create afternoon highs in the mid to upper 70s. Timing of
this next front still looks good, with much of the northern half
of West Central Texas under north surface winds by sunrise Monday
morning. Some of our northern counties may see some surface cold
air advection after midnight Sunday night and before sunrise
Monday morning. Thus, cooler lows Sunday night look reasonable,
especially for locations along and north of our Interstate 20
corridor. By noon Monday, the front should be south of our
Interstate 10 corridor. With all of West Central Texas under gusty
north surface winds Monday afternoon, highs well below seasonal
normals look likely for most locations. Some locations along and
north of our Interstate 20 corridor may see less than 10 degrees
difference between lows early Monday morning and highs later that
day. With light winds behind the front Monday night, overnight
lows at or a few degrees below the freezing mark look likely for
most areas. Some low-lying areas, north of our Interstate 20
corridor, may see lows in the lower 20s. With increasing cloud
cover behind the front, temperature rebound will be slow.
Southerly surface winds return by Tuesday afternoon, and the
associated warm air advection should help produce afternoon highs
in mainly the 55 to 60 range. Confidence as to how extensive the
cloud cover will be is not high at this time, given differences
between the models. The Super Blend produced mostly sunny skies
and mostly clear skies for much of next week. However, the GFS was
more aggressive with mostly cloudy skies. A blend of these two
solutions looked best for now. As for rain chances later in the long
term, the Super Blend continues to generate spotty slight chance
to chance PoPs for the Thursday night into Friday periods. For
now, a compromise with our neighbors looked best.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  48  74  50  75  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  46  77  48  75  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
Junction  44  74  53  75  45 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07






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