000
FXUS64 KSJT 161123
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
619 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will prevail across West Central Texas terminals
through this evening, although a veil of high clouds will spread
across the area. The main aviation issue for today will be strong
winds, as southerly winds increase and begin into the 25 to 35 kt
range by late morning. We will likely see MVFR cigs begin to
approach the southern terminals around Junction and Brady by right
around sunrise Thursday morning, but given the timing uncertainty at
the end of the forecast period, left them out for now.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Much warmer early this morning across West Central Texas, with
readings in the 40s and 50s cross the area. South winds have stayed
up all night so far, and with both the KSJT and KDYX wind profiles
showing a 50 to 60 knot low level jet just above the surface, winds
will stay up for the rest of the night as well.

These winds will quickly mix down this morning, creating breezy
conditions across the area today. Otherwise, with temperatures
already off to a warmer start and with strong warm advection, model
guidance numbers well into the 70s look reasonable. Mild tonight as
the low level jet intensifies and keeps temperatures well into the
50s.

07

LONG TERM...
(Thursday into Tuesday)

There is a slight chance of showers Thursday across the Big Country
as an upper trough moves across the region. Lift with this system is
mainly to the north and there is fairly strong cap in place.
However, a few showers possible in lower levels beneath the cap.

Another stronger upper trough will move across the region this
weekend. Atmospheric column saturates Saturday morning with fairly
strong lift indicated into early Saturday evening. GFS SB CAPES are
up to 1000 J/KG Saturday afternoon with 0-6KM bulk shear around 40
KTS, so there is the potential for a severe storm or two. Also there
is some potential for a few areas of locally heavy rain, as the GFS
indicates a couple rounds of precipitation, perhaps 1/2 to 1 inches
in places. The EC models is more conservative, with lower rainfall
amounts generally 1/4 inch or less.

While strong lift is not indicated Sunday into Monday with passage
of the upper trough, instability along with low/mid level moisture
up to 800 mb will remain over the region. Put in a slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms Sunday into Monday.

04

FIRE WEATHER...
Elevated fire weather conditions across much of the area today, as
the strong winds persist. Dry air mass in place this morning, and
will remain dry through the day. Low level moisture will actually
increase through the day with the southerly flow, and this may well
keep the dry air mass from being so dry that it hits red flag
criteria. In any case, afternoon humidities in the 20% to 25% range
will be common. Strongest wind speeds will be this morning as the
low level jet mixes down, but should be stay fairly strong into the
afternoon as well. With both humidity values and wind speeds right
at critical thresholds, opted to hold off on a Red Flag Warning for
now and monitor. If wind speeds are higher in the afternoon than
expected or low level moisture fails to increase, a Warning will be
necessary.

07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  75  53  68  51  73 /   0  10  20  10  10
San Angelo  74  54  73  54  77 /   0   5  10  10  10
Junction  71  53  71  56  77 /   0   5  10  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07