095
FXUS65 KSLC 110946
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
346 AM MDT Sat May 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Low pressure over the region will result in another
day of unsettled conditions, though high temperatures will warm to
near seasonal normals. A drier and increasingly warm airmass will
move in early next week before less warm and more unsettled
conditions return for the middle of the upcoming week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (through 12Z/6AM Monday)...A broad area of low
pressure is centered over northern Arizona this morning. Clouds
from this feature continue to rotate over southern Utah with some
shower activity continuing during the overnight hours.
Anticipating that this activity will be more focused over
southeast Utah as the morning goes on. Seeing mostly clear to
partly cloudy skies over northern Utah and southwest Wyoming at
this time, which has allowed for some viewing of the northern
lights overnight.

The low will continue northeast during the day, with the center
rotating into southwest Colorado by early evening and into eastern
Colorado and northern New Mexico by Sunday morning. This will
eventually allow high pressure to move into the Great Basin, but
before that happens the area will see another round of scattered
to numerous afternoon/early evening convection primarily focused
over the higher terrain with some drift into downwind areas. Best
coverage will be closer to the low over southern Utah.

Maxes today will be noticeably warmer than yesterday, running
close to normal for this time of year over northern portions of
the area and perhaps a few degrees below over southern Utah given
the greater amount of cloud cover. With the ridge moving into the
Great Basin Sunday, will see further warming of the airmass with
highs averaging 5F above climo. The presence of the ridge will
also bring a drier and more stable airmass to the area, though
will likely see a few afternoon/evening showers develop over the
higher terrain again, though with substantially less coverage than
today.

.LONG TERM (After 12Z/6AM Monday)...High pressure is forecast to be
in control of the weather pattern across Utah Monday with a modest
exception to areas along the border with Idaho and to southwest
Wyoming. In these areas, isolated showers and thunderstorms are
forecast as a shortwave tracks through the region. We are not
talking about significant impacts with this wave, a few hundreds of
an inch of rainfall at most.

A slightly more impactful weather system looks to bring widespread
showers and thunderstorms across the state Tuesday. Trends
associated with the progression of an area of low pressure and
frontal passage have improved since yesterday. The set up is looking
more like a cold front will sweep through northern and central Utah
before stalling and becoming a stationary boundary somewhere across
central or southern Utah. Thus, not all will feel its effects the
same way. Additional uncertainties lie in the strength of the
weather system and thus how impactful weather events will be
Tuesday. Cluster means of ensemble forecasts are not indicating a
particularly strong system at this juncture.

The forecast Wednesday through the end of the week remains a hodge
podge of possible solutions. We`ve noted the GFS solution of wanting
to retrograde the low, sort of similar to what a low just did this
past week. Since this solution has been consistent with the GFS it
is hard to discount it. Initially, continued showers would persist
in the forecast Wednesday under this regime with a drying weather
trend toward the end of the week. That said, the ECMWF solution has
not followed suit. Each new model run has had a bit of a new
forecast regarding the progression of this low, so its much less
easy to put any faith in any of these forecasts. But for what its
worth, their solution currently forecasts a northwest flow regime
and occasional periods of rain showers.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...VFR conditions are forecast throughout the day.
Light southeast winds are forecast to shift northwest around noon
(18z) followed by a return flow from the southeast in the early
evening.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions are
forecast today with mostly high based clouds or even SKC conditions.
From HCR southward, risk for thunderstorms will once again occupy
the afternoon and early evening hours, potentially bringing briefly
lightning, gusty outflow winds and lowered visibilities to
terminals.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A slow moving low pressure system will remain over
the today, gradually shifting east out of the area by Sunday
morning. With this system in place, anticipating additional
showers and thunderstorms today, initially focused over southeast
Utah this morning but spreading to the higher terrain across Utah
and downwind valleys this afternoon into early this evening. With
the exit of the low, high pressure will move into the Great Basin
behind it. This will result in much drier conditions for Sunday,
but cannot rule out some showers and thunderstorms over the higher
terrain of northern and central Utah, with some isolated showers
and storms anticipated Monday as well. Temperatures will steadily
warm, with maxes running about 10F above seasonal normals by
Monday. Afterward, the Great Basin ridge is expected to be
dislodged by a series of relatively weak storm systems, resulting
in less warm and more unsettled conditions for the middle to
latter part of the upcoming week.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...Traphagan
LONG TERM/AVIATION...NDeSmet

For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity