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000
FXUS64 KTSA 261731
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1231 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today)
Issued at 957 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

The morning round of thunderstorms has made steady eastward
progress except in portions of southeast Oklahoma, where the
east-west orientation has led to multiple rounds of storms.
Overall, this southern part of the line is expected to continue to
shift the northeast through the morning and into the early
afternoon, with potential for continued development within an
increasing low level jet and an increase in severity as
instability recovers some. Farther to the west, mid to late
afternoon development along the dryline into northeast and east
central Oklahoma looks increasingly likely, which would pose a
threat for tornadoes, very large hail and damaging wind given
forecast soundings and hodographs. The expectation is for a
decrease in coverage during the evening, with waning instability.
Adjustments have been made mainly to POPs and Weather types,
according to current trends and also to increase things farther
west given the dryline expectations.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

During the day Saturday an unusually deep surface low
will rapidly strengthen across western Kansas, reinvigorating the
southerly flow with impressive instability and wind shear
developing. EPS EFI for both Cape-Shear and QPF has values of 0.7 to
0.8 over the area. EPS moisture values will again be near and above
the 99th percentile for EPS climatology for the date.The general
details paint a picture of a higher end severe weather day. Storms
will likely develop along the dry line as a shortwave ejects
eastwards, with tornadoes, large hail, and damaging wind all
possible (10-30% chance within 25 miles of any given point). A
strengthening LLJ in the evening will help to prolong storm
activity. Storms will gradually transition into a line of very
heavy rainfall, with some some model guidance showing several
inches of rain being possible in spots. The SPC has maintained an
enhanced risk for Saturday with WPC showing a moderate risk of
excessive rainfall leading to flooding Saturday into Sunday.
Details on the exact locations and timing will presumably come
into better focus over the next 24 hours so stay tuned.

Heavy rainfall will translate eastwards Sunday before moving out of
the area. A short break from the stormy weather is expected, but
additional rain and thunder chances will move back into the area
early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Thunderstorm impacts in the near term will be most likely at MLC
and also at the W AR sites through 00Z, with an expected decrease
in coverage thereafter. Expect IFR conditions during
thunderstorms. Will continue a VCTS mention at the NE OK sites
which could see more isolated storms develop mid to late
afternoon, with amendments to address on station impacts when
known. Widespread MVFR ceilings are expected tonight and into
tomorrow morning. Isolated to scattered shower/thunderstorm
potential will redevelop tomorrow morning, especially at the W AR
sites, covered with a PROB30.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   81  68  80  62 /  30  10  70  90
FSM   76  67  82  66 / 100  40  70  60
MLC   77  67  80  64 /  60  20  70  80
BVO   82  64  80  60 /  30  10  70  90
FYV   73  63  79  63 /  90  40  60  60
BYV   73  64  80  63 / 100  40  50  50
MKO   76  66  80  62 /  60  20  60  80
MIO   75  66  81  62 /  50  20  60  80
F10   78  66  79  62 /  30  10  70  90
HHW   75  66  80  64 /  80  30  70  70

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon for
     OKZ054>068-070-071-073.

AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...22