Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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827 FXUS64 KTSA 091724 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1224 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (The rest of today ) Issued at 1100 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024 A few elevated showers/thunderstorms across northeast Oklahoma late this morning. This activity is moving into a more stable air-mass, so overall coverage will likely be very isolated at best before weakening. Additional, mainly elevated, showers/thunderstorms are expected across southeast Oklahoma this afternoon as mid level disturbance approaches from the southwest. A storm or two could become marginally severe near the Red River, closer to the cold front, before shifting southeast. && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday) Issued at 320 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024 High pressure builds across the region Friday into Saturday with dry weather and near normal temperatures. The pattern aloft will feature a near stationary closed low over the southwestern CONUS which is expected to finally move across the southern Plains Sunday through Monday. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase accordingly with widespread rains appearing likely Sunday night through Monday. Overall the severe weather potential appears rather low at this time with limited instability and stronger flow more south the region. The flow aloft remains northwesterly through the central CONUS in wake of the passing upper low and likely beyond as amplified ridging develops over the western CONUS. This should allow several stronger cold front to move through the region with the severe weather potential remaining much less than has recently been seen. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1223 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 Scattered showers/thunderstorms will spread into southeast Oklahoma this afternoon, potentially impacting KMLC with brief MVFR conditions. A few showers may also move into the KFSM area by late afternoon. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected with scattered high clouds into Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 53 76 55 81 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 57 78 54 82 / 20 0 0 0 MLC 57 78 54 82 / 20 0 0 0 BVO 49 76 50 81 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 51 74 50 79 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 51 71 50 78 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 52 74 52 79 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 50 72 51 78 / 0 0 0 0 F10 54 75 54 80 / 10 0 0 0 HHW 59 78 55 79 / 20 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...12