Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
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590 FXUS62 KTBW 112328 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 728 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 727 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024 Much drier air has begun to infiltrate the state behind the frontal boundary. From Tampa Bay northward, dew points have fallen into the 50s and 60s. Locations in SWFL are still seeing dew points in the 70s. The dry air will continue to make its way south overnight and during the day tomorrow, nearly everyone across the Sunshine State will experience RHs in the 30-40% range. Heat will remain across the state, but hopefully the drier air will make it more tolerable. Quiet weather pattern overall with no adjustments to the forecast needed. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 727 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024 VFR conditions through the period. Winds will diminish and turn more northerly during the overnight hours and into Sunday morning. During the afternoon hours, winds will become westerly with the sea breeze. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 245 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024 Drier air continues to advect into the area in the wake of the frontal boundary from this morning, but lingering moisture may be enough to spark a few storms across far southern interior areas, though this chance is rather low as better sea breeze convergence is expected to occur on the eastern side of the peninsula. Other than the low PoPs for far southern interior areas, the rest of the day will be dry for the remainder of the region with a decreasing trend in dewpoints through this evening. While the post-frontal airmass will not offer too much in the way of relief regarding the warm temperatures for Mother`s Day tomorrow as highs are expected to be in the upper 80s to mid 90s with ridging building aloft, the lower humidity values should remain in place through the end of the weekend which before the more humid conditions make a comeback by next week. It should also be a mostly rain-free day tomorrow with upper level ridging in place but models show increasing mid/upper level moisture will yield an increase in cloud cover in the northwest flow aloft so can`t rule out a few light showers/sprinkles across southern interior areas if enough moisture can return during peak heating hours, though PoPs are generally less than 20%. The new week will begin with ridging aloft quickly shifting off to the east ahead of a shortwave trough swinging across the mid Mississippi Valley. As surface high pressure shifts out into the Atlantic, low level south-southeast flow will bring a return of deeper moisture and an opportunity for scattered showers and storms on Monday, mainly driven by sea breeze activity. Precipitation coverage will increase further by Tuesday, particularly for the northern half of the forecast area, as the aforementioned shortwave trough pushes into the TN valley and the associated cold front sweeps across the Gulf Coast states. While there remains uncertainty in the evolution of convective activity with this system, it looks like there is a possibility for at least one or several waves of convection on Tuesday that could move across the northern portions of Florida where the better dynamics are expected to be. Strong to severe storms can`t be ruled out with this activity as models show that plenty of shear and good instability is expected to be in place, but specifics in details will be hard to resolve at this time. Rain chances should gradually increase southward into Wednesday as the frontal boundary drops into the central peninsula and stalls into late week around the northern portions of the state. As the frontal boundary lifts back north of the area, weak ridging appears to move back in and this should yield lower rain chances late week, though there will still be more than enough moisture in place to support at least some rain chances with greatest coverage expected to occur during peak diurnal heating. While the weak ridging late week may support a brief period of lower precipitation coverage, models show a southern stream disturbance approaching the region by next weekend, which is reflected in the ongoing forecast as PoPs will be on an increasing trend by the end of the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 71 90 75 92 / 0 10 0 30 FMY 71 92 72 94 / 0 10 0 20 GIF 67 92 72 95 / 0 10 0 40 SRQ 70 91 72 93 / 0 10 0 10 BKV 62 91 67 95 / 0 10 0 30 SPG 75 90 77 90 / 0 10 0 20 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 8 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 7 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION...ADavis PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Giarratana DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Wynn