950
FXUS61 KBGM 121923
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
323 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level low pressure pushes east of the region this evening.
Clouds will decrease tonight with cool conditions and patchy fog
developing. Warmer temperatures are expected Monday, however
a warm front will push through the area and kick off scattered
showers and afternoon thunderstorms. Another upper level low
moves over the region on Tuesday and Wednesday with more periods
of rain possible.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

320 PM Update

Upper level low pressure continues pushing eastward this
afternoon and this evening, allowing for drier condition to
prevail. Partly cloudy skies are expected for much of tonight
as weak high pressure briefly pushes in. The clearing skies and
light winds should allow for some patchy fog to form, however
clouds will start to increase again by early Monday morning,
which could dissipate fog before sunrise.

A slow moving warm front will push east over the region on
tomorrow. Along this front there will be a period of rain
showers in the morning to early afternoon hours; with more
coverage of showers the further north in Central NY and in the
Finger Lakes Region. NE PA and into the Catskills should stay
mostly dry with perhaps an isolated shower. By tomorrow afternoon,
the warm front should push north of the region. Temperatures
will be much warmer tomorrow with clearing behind the front.
However, some weak instability will develop with some sunshine
peaking through during the after early evening hours. This
will could be enough for a few thunderstorms to develop late in
the day generally from the Southern Tier on northward. Outside
of any showers and thunderstorms, it will be partly sunny with
highs ranging from the low to mid-70s west of I-81, with
mid-60s to around 70 east. After sunset, shower and
thunderstorms will start to decrease in coverage with chances
only possible across the far north in the vicinity of the warm
front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
355 AM Update:

Weak ridging will be sliding east of the area Monday night with
a warm front north of our region. Latest model guidance has
trended a bit drier Monday night with most of the rain shower
activity located to our north and west/closer to the warm front.
Currently maintaining slight chance to low-end chance PoPs for
areas west of I-81 Monday night, but if this drier trend
continues, it is possible the entire area remains dry Monday
night. Lows are expected to be in the upper 40s to upper 50s.

A slow-moving frontal boundary will be moving eastward on
Tuesday, which will re-introduce showers to the forecast.
Depending on the progression of this front, it is possible that
much of Tuesday morning may remain mainly dry, especially east
of I-81, before coverage of showers and perhaps a few
thunderstorms increases during the afternoon. Otherwise it will
be mainly cloudy with highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s.

The upper level low will slowly drift eastward and the
associated frontal boundary will stall over/around our area
Tuesday night through Wednesday, which will keep showers and
some thunderstorms around. Right now, it appears the best chance
for more widespread coverage of showers on Wednesday will be
across areas east of I-81/south of I-88, but this is subject to
change depending on the progression of the frontal boundary.
Otherwise, mainly cloudy skies are again expected, with perhaps
some partial clearing late in the day Wednesday for areas west
of I-81. Highs are expected to be mainly in the 60s.

The upper level low drifts eastward/away from the area Wednesday
night, which will allow for the coverage of showers to diminish.
However, some model guidance keeps this upper low close enough
to have showers linger around a bit longer.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
355 AM Update:

Weak ridging builds in Thursday into Friday, which will allow
for a brief drier period of weather. The one caveat is that the
upper low may remain close enough to the region Thursday for a
few isolated showers. That being said, chances are that Thursday
will be dry with partly to mostly sunny skies and highs in the
upper 60s to lower 70s.

Unfortunately, this dry period of weather looks to be rather
short-lived as yet another frontal system looks to move through
the region late in the period. However, as is typical this far
out, significant timing differences are present, which creates
uncertainty for Friday`s forecast. Should this next system
approach the area a bit slower, Friday may remain dry, but a
quicker approach would re-introduce a chance for showers.
Confidence in seeing rain showers is higher for Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Upper level low pressure system has brought showers and mostly
cloudy conditions to the region today. This has resulted in
predominantly MVFR ceilings. Clouds will scatter out and
ceilings will lift as this system pushes eastward later this
afternoon and this evening. Brief high pressure and drier
conditions are expect this evening and tonight with VFR
conditions likely. There is some uncertainty overnight into
early Monday on fog development. Clouds are expected to increase
again early Monday morning, but if cloud cover overnight can
clear out long enough, then fog may become an issue early
Monday. Confidence is too low at this time to include IFR fog at
any terminal, but ELM and BGM would be most likely areas to see
restrictions from fog early Monday.

Outlook...

Monday afternoon through Wednesday...Occasional rain showers
may bring intermittent restrictions as multiple disturbances
pass through the region. Some periods of mainly VFR conditions
possible in between disturbances, but timing of this is
uncertain.

Thursday...Becoming VFR as a ridge of high pressure moves
overhead.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPK
NEAR TERM...MPK
SHORT TERM...BJG
LONG TERM...BJG
AVIATION...MPK