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000
FXUS61 KBGM 230717
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
317 AM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry again today with clouds moving in through the afternoon.
Rain showers move in tonight ahead of a cold front coming
through Wednesday morning. Seasonably cold weather expected
Wednesday afternoon and overnight before warmer and drier
weather returns for the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
310 AM Update...

With only a few high clouds moving through early this morning
it is another cold night with good radiational cooling. valleys
have cooled faster than the ridges so used our fog tool to lower
temperatures in the valleys. Upper level ridging is building in
as well with southerly flow developing in the lower levels so
despite some more filtered sun today, temperatures will warm to
5 to 10 degrees warmer than yesterday. Forecast soundings show
dry air still in place above the mixing layer so odds are dew
points will fall below model guidance so used the canadian reg
as well as NBM 10th to get dew points lower for late morning
through early afternoon. Boundary layer moisture does begin to
advect in late this afternoon as an area of low pressure moves
into the Great Lakes region.

Tonight, rain showers move in from west to east. Chances of
precipitation were delayed until after 7 pm this evening as dry
air in place will take some time to saturate. Looking at RH
levels through the atmosphere, there does look to be a dry slot
trying to nudge into NEPA and the Southern Tier as the
precipitation begins so QPF amounts were lowered. Across the NY
thruway, steadier precipitation is possible as the low traverses
from west to east through northern NY.

Headed into Wednesday, a strong cold front moves through so day
time highs will likely occur before noon with falling
temperatures through the day. Really cut back on chances of
precipitation especially behind the cold front as the 500 mb
shortwave axis moves east of us as well as strong cold air
advection. Some models still show post frontal precipitation but
with the strength of the negative vorticity advection in the
mid and upper levels sinking air will make it tough to get much
beyond some isolated drizzle.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
150 PM update...

Main concerns in the short term are focused on the potential
for rain showers and even a few isolated thunderstorms early in
the day Wednesday with cooler and drier air moving in Wed night
into Thursday.

Broad upper level trough will be rotating through the Northeast
U.S. Wednesday morning with an area of stratiform rain on the
front end of the system. Modest, shallow isentropic lift within
a relatively deep, moist air mass and weak upper level forcing
will produce this wide area of rain Wed morning. Cold air moving
in behind this feature will push in quickly aloft, which will
induce an area of steep mid level lapse rates during the late
morning and early afternoon hours. The air mass is not expected
to be very unstable given the presence of rain and a fair amount
of cloud cover. The most favorable time and location of weak
instability will be from the Poconos and southern Catskills
farther to the east and southeast in the afternoon. Given the
cold air aloft and the potential for mixing later in the day,
the main threats will likely be small hail and gusty winds in
any storms that do form and mature.

The cooler and drier air is expected to move in quickly from
the northwest later in the day Wednesday. Surface temperatures
will hold steady in the mid 40s to mid/upper 50s...and then
slowly drop back into the lower to mid 40s by the late
afternoon/evening hours. The large-scale wind field will be
notable during the day with sustained NW winds 15 to 20 mph and
gusts up to 30 mph, especially across the Finger Lakes. An
abundance of clearing should occur Wed night, which will combine
with light/calm winds to allow temperatures to fall into the
mid 20s and lower 30s. The coldest air is expected to occur in
the valley locations that decouple from the boundary layer. The
quiet weather will persist into Thursday and the cooler air mass
will remain, but plenty of sun and a high sun angle will allow
high temperatures to climb into the mid to upper 50s close to
60. Winds will be substantially lower on Thursday, which will be
a nice relief from the day before.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
150 PM update...

Large scale upper level ridging will move across the region Thu
night into Friday, which will keep weather conditions very
quiet and dry. Temperatures will slowly rebound with morning
lows Friday starting out in the lower to mid 30s before rising
into the upper 50s to mid 60s. The next deep low pressure system
is expected to move into the Upper Midwest late Friday and
begin to sweep a warm front north through the Ohio Valley and
eastern Great Lakes Friday night into Saturday morning. This
front may have a difficult time producing rain into the slow-
moving dry air mass in the Northeast. Only minor deviation from
the ensemble blend was to delay the onset of the higher chances
of rain until later in the morning hours on Saturday.

This incoming warm front will not only bring increase rain
chances and clouds, but also notably warmer temperatures...
especially on Sunday. Temperatures on Saturday will hover around
average for this time of year with scattered rain showers, but
on Sunday, the really warm air is expected to push farther north
and push temperatures into the 70s for nearly all of the
forecast are of northeast PA and central NY. This warm and
unstable air mass will also trigger the potential for some
scattered showers and thunderstorms later in the day. The warm
air looks to remain in place going into at least the early part
of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours at all terminals.
Rain will be moving in out of the west after 0Z this evening
but with dry air in place, cigs will remain high through at
least 6Z. SYR and RME should start to see rain before 6Z but vis
is likely going to remain above 6 miles. AVP has near LLWS this
evening as well but with surface winds staying elevated, the 30
knot threshold isn`t met.

Outlook...

Tuesday night through Wednesday night...Occasional restrictions
possible in rain showers.

Thursday through Friday...Mainly VFR.

Saturday...Restrictions possible in rain showers, especially in
the afternoon and evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry conditions with gusty winds are expected again today. Min
RHs will fall below 30% for much of the region with a few
locations falling below 20%, mainly in warmer valley locations.
Wind gusts this afternoon will get up to near 25 mph for higher
elevations and 15 to 20 mph for valley locations. With fine
fuels drying out yesterday and continued drying late this
morning into the afternoon, a SPS has been issued for NY
counties. After coordination with NYSDEC, the decision was
made to issue a special weather statement for New York, however
at this time, an SPS for northeast PA will not be issued based
on coordination with PA DCNR.

RH does look to recover late this afternoon into the early
evening as dew points begin to rise as moisture begins to move
in from the SW ahead of a cold front. Models tend to bring
moisture in too quickly so RHs were kept lower until after
sunset.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJG
NEAR TERM...AJG
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...AJG
FIRE WEATHER...