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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 140519
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1019 PM MST Sat Apr 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...A strong low pressure system will bring cooler
temperatures and increasing winds through Monday. There is a slight
chances for precipitation on Monday. For the rest of next week,
daytime temperatures will warm to between 10 and 15 degrees above
average by Thursday along with sunny skies and light winds.

&&

.UPDATE...Forecast remains mostly on track: winds slacking tonight
though many areas will likely not decouple, resulting in winds not
totally slacking and/or not becoming terrain dependent. Newest
CAMs support the shift to even lower pops for Sunday night into
Monday with very limited moisture availability for showers.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /421 PM MST/...A deep low pressure center is
currently just off the northern California coast north of the Bay
Area. This system will weaken and move eastward this weekend and
move across Arizona on Monday. The main impacts will be increasing
winds, much cooler daytime temperatures, and scattered showers
Sunday night and Monday. Winds have already increased across
northern Arizona with gusts between 20 and 30 MPH in several
location. Temperatures are also about 5 degrees lower than
yesterday afternoon. Overnight tonight, winds may remain gusty
over the higher elevations of the Western Mogollon Rim and Kaibab
Plateau...especially downwind of higher terrain such as Doney Park
and Houserock Valley.

The trend of stronger winds and cooler daytime temperatures will
continue on Sunday with another 3 to 5 degrees of cooling and
another 5 to 10 MPH increase in wind speeds. The trough axis will
enter western Arizona Sunday evening and move across the state on
Monday. This will start to increase moisture enough to bring
slight chance for precipitation Sunday night and Monday. PoPs will
generally remain below 30% across northern Arizona and amounts
will generally be light. Winds will remain elevated through the
night Sunday into Monday for most areas with higher elevations
from the Kaibab Plateau to the White Mountains and the mountains
near the Four Corners. The winds on Monday will continue and
daytime temperatures will be 10 to 15 degrees below average.

The trough of low pressure will move east on Tuesday with much
lighter winds and rapidly warming daytime temperatures. High
pressure building over Arizona through the rest of the week will
bring the warmest daytime temperatures of the year so far. During
the second half of next week, afternoon temperatures will push 70
degrees along the Mogollon Rim and 90 degrees in the lower
elevations of Yavapai County.

&&

.AVIATION...Sunday 14/06Z through Monday 15/06Z...VFR conditions
will continue through the TAF period. Look for winds generally out
of the south 15 kts or less through 12Z. After 18Z, expect S-SW winds
at 15-25 kts sustained and gusting 30-40 kts.

OUTLOOK...Monday 15/06Z through Wednesday 17/06Z...Mostly VFR
conditions are expected to continue, but isolated/brief MVFR
conditions from -SHRA/-SHSN are possible on Monday. Expect west
winds 15-25 kts, gusting 25-35 kts throughout Monday afternoon,
becoming lighter W-NW winds on Tuesday.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Sunday through Monday...A few degrees cooler
on Sunday, dry and windy. Southwest winds from 15 to 25 mph and
gusts from 30 to 40 mph on Sunday. Winds may not fully decouple
overnight tonight. Areas of near critical fire weather conditions
are possible again Sunday afternoon, especially east of the I-17
corridor. Even cooler temperatures Monday with isolated to scattered
showers during the afternoon. Winds Monday turning more westerly, 15
to 25 mph, with gusts from 30 to 40 mph.

Tuesday through Thursday...Turning much warmer and dry, with lighter
west through southwest breezes at 10 to 20 mph.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RKR/MAS
AVIATION...Konieczny
FIRE WEATHER...Peterson

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff