638
FXUS64 KFWD 111033
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
533 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
Few adjustments were necessary through the short term other than
to refine PoP trends over the next 48 hours based on overnight
high-res guidance. An active Mother`s Day weekend is in store with
multiple opportunities for showers and thunderstorms, with the
greatest risk for strong or marginally severe storms and flooding
occurring during the daytime Sunday. HREF guidance continues to
support the highest rainfall amounts south of the I-20 corridor,
with 48-hour PMM guidance indicating isolated totals exceeding 3
inches. A small Flood Watch may be considered in subsequent short
term forecast issuances depending on trends in guidance today.

-Stalley

Previous Discussion:
/Through Sunday Night/

Additional widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected
this weekend with threats for heavy rain/flooding and hail up to
1" in diameter.

A lead shortwave disturbance will contribute to increasing mid
cloud cover today, eventually resulting in sufficient ascent and
top-down saturation to allow for light to moderate rain to arrive
from the west late this morning into the afternoon. Parcels in
this layer will have access to meager instability, but it will be
sufficient to allow for some instances of thunder later in the
day. Rain amounts will be fairly light with today`s precip, with
the main round of heavy rain holding off until daytime Sunday.
Otherwise, thickening cloud cover will hold high temperatures a
few degrees cooler than yesterday, mainly in the mid and upper
70s.

The primary shortwave trough will be impinging on North and
Central Texas tomorrow morning, bringing a soggy end to Mother`s
Day weekend. Widespread shower and thunderstorm activity will be
present across most of the CWA, fueled primarily by strong
isentropic ascent. A modest shear/instability parameter space
could allow for some updrafts to produce marginally severe hail up
to 1", but the environment overall will be unfavorable for
organized severe thunderstorms. The primary threat for Sunday will
likely be heavy rainfall and potentially renewed flooding since
soils remain saturated from above normal rainfall in recent days
and weeks. The greatest rainfall totals are expected to be roughly
near or south of I-20, where isolated amounts in the 2-3" range
are possible. While this will mainly impact the area during the
daytime with perhaps a break later in the evening, additional
upstream convection could materialize along this system`s slow-
moving cold front overnight into Monday morning. Due to widespread
rainfall and cloudy skies, temperatures will struggle to make it
to the mid 70s tomorrow afternoon, followed by overnight lows in
the 60s.

-Stalley

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 332 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024/
/Monday Through Late Next Week/

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue
along a weak cold front on Monday with the bulk of this activity
expected to be along and east of I-35. Now that we`re getting
within range of high-res guidance, latest model data continues to
trend increasingly pessimistic towards another potential for severe
storms on Monday. The latest NAM continues to be the slowest
among deterministic guidance members with the movement of the
front and depicts a more moist and unstable environment ahead of
the front. This environment would certainly support at least a few
severe storms, though the exact evolution of this convection and
areal coverage of storms are still a bit uncertain at this time.
These details will continue to be ironed out this weekend as
additional data comes in, so be sure to check back for any
updates.

This round of convection will exit the area Monday evening,
marking the beginning of our next rain-free period. Less cloud
cover will result in warmer temperatures in the low to mid 80s
Tuesday afternoon, but drier air behind the front should keep the
warmth rather pleasant. Our rain-free period will be quite brief,
as our next system is progged to arrive Wednesday as a shortwave
trough swings into the region. A typical dryline and cold front
set up will likely bring yet another potential for severe storms
Wednesday afternoon. Additional rounds of showers and storms are
possible through Thursday, and heavy rainfall will result in
continued flooding concerns. Make sure you keep an eye on the
forecast this week as our active spring weather continues.

Barnes

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12z TAFs/

VFR will prevail through most of the period with chances for
showers and thunderstorms at the TAF sites beginning this
afternoon. Mid clouds between 10-15 kft will continue thickening
this morning, and light rain with perhaps some embedded TS
activity will materialize from this cloud deck later in the
afternoon. Showers are likely to linger into the evening, before
perhaps a lull in rain is observed overnight into early Sunday
morning. A fairly rapid deterioration to low MVFR or IFR
cigs and/or vsbys will occur around or after 12z tomorrow morning
while numerous showers and thunderstorms develop across all of
North and Central Texas. Impacts due to periodic TS as well as
degraded flight categories should be expected through most of the
day tomorrow. Otherwise, expect light NE winds to gradually
return to ESE later this morning where they will remain through
most of the period.

-Stalley

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    79  65  72  67  83 /  40  30 100  60  20
Waco                78  66  73  68  83 /  30  40  90  50  30
Paris               79  62  72  63  80 /  20  10  80  80  40
Denton              78  62  71  64  81 /  40  30  90  60  20
McKinney            78  63  72  66  81 /  30  30  90  70  20
Dallas              80  65  72  66  84 /  40  30  90  60  20
Terrell             78  64  72  66  82 /  40  30  90  70  30
Corsicana           79  67  74  69  83 /  30  30  90  60  30
Temple              79  66  75  69  84 /  20  40  80  50  30
Mineral Wells       76  62  72  65  82 /  40  40 100  50  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$