178
FXUS64 KFWD 061102
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
602 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:

Not much has changed regarding today`s conditional severe threat.
We still expect a stout capping inversion to stick around through
this afternoon, inhibiting storm development across much of the
region. Late this afternoon, dryline-driven convection is
expected mainly to our north and will grow upscale as storms move
east this evening. CAMs still have the bulk of this activity
remaining north of the Red River, but a few storms still have the
chance to develop further south if the cap breaks. We`ll be
watching the environment and any potential storm development
closely this afternoon, so check back for new updates.

The previous discussion below remains valid.

Prater

Previous Discussion:
/Today through Tuesday Afternoon/

An upper low that is currently moving through the southwestern CONUS
will continue its trek eastward, eventually providing the upper
support for our conditional storm chances later today.

The aforementioned shortwave will swing to the northeast, spreading
increased forcing for ascent across the region. Once caveat is
that forecast soundings show an 850mb capping inversion through
this afternoon, which will inhibit convective initiation for much
of the day. The occurrence of storms across our area today is
conditional on the cap breaking. *IF* the cap is able to break
due to strong afternoon heating, then isolated severe
thunderstorms would be expected along and ahead of the dryline. Any
storm that forms today across North Texas will have the potential
to quickly become severe as the environment will be unstable with
2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE. The main threats for today will be large
to very large hail and damaging winds. There is an attendant
tornado threat, especially with the more discrete storms, but low
level shear magnitude is marginal to keep this a more tertiary
threat. Prior to the cap potentially breaking, we`ll be watching
for a few scattered warm advection-induced showers/storms out
ahead of the dryline.

Overall, the severe threat for our area remains highest generally
north of I-20, though Oklahoma has the greatest threat of the
day. Nonetheless, if you are out and about today make sure to have
multiple ways to receive warnings this afternoon and evening if
storms do impact your area as they will be able to become severe
quickly.

The storm chances will come to an end by Tuesday morning as a cold
front approaches North Texas. The cold front will move south and
overtake the northern portion of the dryline early tomorrow as a
secondary shortwave disturbance rounds the base of the main
longwave trough. This front will make it into portions of North
and Central Texas by the afternoon before stalling as the
shortwave quickly ejects to the northeast. This front will not
make too much change within our sensible weather, aside from
scouring out some of the lower- level moisture behind it.
Afternoon temperatures are still expected to peak in the mid 80s
to around 90.

Prater

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 300 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024/
/Wednesday through Sunday/

Abnormal, but sub-record heat will continue to build on Wednesday
as H850 temperature anomalies climb over North and Central Texas
amidst low level downslope flow. Afternoon highs in the mid 80s to
lower 90s in combination with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s
will yield maximum apparent temperatures nearing 100 degrees
across portions of Central Texas...particularly south of a
Palestine to Waco to Lampasas line. The broad upper low anchored
over the northern Plains will slowly eject into the Upper Midwest
Wednesday while west-southwesterly mid-level flow prevails across
the central CONUS. An embedded shortwave trough riding around the
base of the main upper low will swing eastward from the
central/southern Plains into the Middle Mississippi Valley
Wednesday into Thursday inducing lee cyclogenesis over the
southern Rockies.

Strong low-level moisture transport ahead of the trailing
dryline/cold front will contribute to increasing buoyancy while
mid-level lapse rates steepen, resulting in MLCAPE in excess of
3500 J/kg. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected along
these surface boundaries through the afternoon and evening as
large-scale ascent attendant to the passing shortwave overspreads
the region. The best storm chances will generally be along and
east of I-35/35W, which is currently projected to be the
approximate location of the dryline by the afternoon. With strong
instability and 35-45+ knots of deep-layer effective shear, any
thunderstorms that develop will likely be severe with large hail
and damaging winds being the primary hazards. Antecedent
conditions also remain very wet given the recent period of heavy
rainfall. This means runoff issues may rapidly re-emerge on
Wednesday (and potentially Thursday), especially wherever higher
convective rain rates occur.

After briefly stalling just south of I-20 Wednesday night, the
cold front will continue to sag southward into Central TX on
Thursday. Convective development will be possible ahead of the
boundary, however confidence is low in the exact location and
speed of the front. Additionally, storms may have to overcome some
capping so the coverage of convection is likely to be lower until
later in the afternoon. With this forecast update, PoPs have been
increased/expanded slightly across Central Texas Thursday
afternoon. A few strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out with
any storms that develop, though the better severe weather
potential will likely exist just beyond our forecast domain given
the projected FROPA timing.

The post-frontal airmass will be noticeably cooler with daytime
temperatures in the mid 70s by the weekend as a surface high
builds southward through the Plains. On Saturday, a large upper
low will drop across the western Great Lakes sending a strong cold
front plunging towards the Gulf coast. This is likely to bring
shower/storm chances back to the region as soon as Saturday night.

12

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06Z TAFs/

Stratus has overtaken all TAF sites this morning, though cig
heights vary with FTW in IFR and DAL still lingering in VFR. All
sites should teeter between MVFR and IFR through the morning
before improving back to MVFR by mid-late afternoon. There remain
chances for showers and storms this afternoon, but coverage is
still too uncertain and sparse for inclusion into the TAF.
Southerly winds will increase in speeds to around 15 kts with
occasional higher gusts at all TAF sites.

Another round of MVFR stratus is expected late tonight into
tomorrow morning, but will be ushered out of D10 with the passage
of a cold front around 15Z. Winds in D10 will shift westerly
behind this front and clouds will clear out.

Prater

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    83  71  88  72  89 /  20  10   0   5  20
Waco                83  71  87  71  88 /  20  10   0   0  20
Paris               81  69  86  69  86 /  20  30   5   5  40
Denton              82  66  86  69  88 /  20  20   0   5  20
McKinney            81  69  87  70  87 /  20  20   0   5  20
Dallas              83  71  89  72  90 /  20  10   0   5  20
Terrell             81  70  86  70  86 /  20  10   0   5  30
Corsicana           83  72  88  73  88 /  20  10   0   5  20
Temple              83  70  88  71  88 /  20  10   0   0  20
Mineral Wells       83  63  87  69  88 /  20   5   0   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$