742
FXUS64 KJAN 150648 AAC
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
148 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 313 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Tonight and Wednesday...Troughing associated with a closed low centered
over East Central Missouri, will continue to push east through
the region tonight. As this happens, a weak cold front will
likewise continue to slowly shift east through the CWA this
evening. Scattered showers, along with some isolated storms, will
continue to be possible across mainly northern and eastern
portions of the area during this time. This convection will slowly
begin dissipating after sunset, when daytime heating is lost.

In the wake of the front, high pressure and ridging aloft will build
east into the region.  Skies will steadily clear from west to east
this evening and overnight, with lows falling into the low and
middle 60s. Quiet and mostly sunny conditions will then exist on
Wednesday, with highs in the 80s. /19/

Wednesday Night through next Tuesday....A strengthening southern
jet and positively tilted trough axis shifting across the Southern
Plains will send multiple rounds of shortwaves and associated
cold front across the area. The will provide a good storm
environment ahead of impending showers and storms; favorable low-
level moisture, increasing instability and dewpoints in the low-
mid 70s. Thursday evening the chances for isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms will increase steadily from west to east
going into Friday. There is two most probable model solutions for
this time frame. The GFS/NAM has isolated to scattered convection
moving into the area Thursday night and holds off on the stronger
storm development Friday evening- overnight. In contrast the
Euro/Canadian has the more intense storm development Thursday
night as downstream redevelopment from storms over the High Plains
with rain and storm chances being closer to the coast Friday
evening-overnight. With either solution the primary risk will be
the heavy rainfall with the possibility of flash flooding
extending through the weekend as rainfall totals could reach 3-5
inches from Thursday-Saturday morning with locally higher amounts.
A slight and marginal risk for severe storms has been added to
the HWO for Thursday evening through Friday evening.

Saturday-Sunday: As the upper-level trough axis clears eastward by
Saturday night,precip chances will diminish and temperatures will
trend on the cooler side behind the front. However wet conditions
may linger late this weekend into early week as another shortwave
moving across the southern plains into the lower MS valley will be
possible however there isn`t much model consensus on timing right
now.

Monday: Looking ahead to the start of the workweek, a warming trend
will ensue as temperatures will reach into the low 90s. Showers and
storms are likely to continue into next week with additional
shortwaves possible. /KP/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 145 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

VFR conditions to prevail through the period at the TAF sites, but
there is a chance for BR to develop near KHBG and KPIB around 12Z
Wednesday. Have mentioned a brief period of MVFR conditions at
those two sites. /NF/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       62  86  66  81 /   0  10  60  80
Meridian      61  89  65  81 /   0   0  50  90
Vicksburg     63  86  65  82 /   0  10  70  70
Hattiesburg   63  90  67  83 /   0   0  50  80
Natchez       63  86  65  82 /   0  20  70  70
Greenville    66  88  68  81 /   0  10  60  70
Greenwood     63  88  67  81 /   0  10  60  80

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

19/KP/NF